Pac 10 Preview
by Ben Burns
Betting the Pac-10 is all about figuring out Southern Cal.
When will the Trojans be at their best? (11-1 ATS in non-conference games the last three years).
When will they lay a brick? (4-10 ATS on the road in the Pac-10 the last three seasons).
Pete Carroll’s juggernaut lost a ton off of last year’s team. Only three defensive starters return, and it was pretty obvious from Carroll’s whining just how much quarterback Mark Sanchez meant to the Trojans.
They face California and Oregon on the road. The season-ending showdown with improving UCLA will be extremely tough as well. The Bruins are 4-1 ATS against the Trojans in their last five meetings.
This year appears as good as any for the Trojans to be dethroned. Yet, you’ll find USC ranked in the top 5 of every preseason poll. Oddsmakers have posted the Trojans as -300 favorites to win a record eighth consecutive Pac-10 title.
Defending champion Florida is the only other BCS team to be an outright favorite in their conference. The Gators are also -300 favorites to win the SEC.
Is USC really as dominant over rest of the Pac-10 as Florida is over the rest of the SEC?
No way.
The talent gap between the Trojans and the rest of the Pac-10 is as small as it has been in quite some time.
Not only will Cal, Oregon and UCLA be solid, but the Trojans also know they can’t overlook Oregon State.
Arizona returns the core of a defense that held the Trojans to 17 points and less than 200 yards of offense last season.
Even Stanford, with 17 returning starters, has a chance to challenge the Trojans. (Laugh now, but come November the four touchdowns the Cardinal will be getting at USC might look pretty good.)
Like every conference, the Pac-10 does have its pushovers in Washington and Washington State. The Apple State cupcakes combined to go 5-19 ATS the last season. There’s nowhere to go but up for those guys, but proceed cautiously.
Overall, the Pac-10 may have not caught up completely with the Trojans, but the conference could be as balanced as it has been in a long time.
USC has slipped up against Pac-10 competition at least once each of the last three seasons. If it happens twice this year, the Trojans’ reign will end.
Projected Finish
(ATS records are from last three seasons).
UCLA
ATS: 24-14 (Home: 15-5. Away: 8-8)
Thing to remember: The Bruins have been one of the best bets in the nation the past five seasons. They are 39-23 ATS during that time frame, including 27-16 in conference play.
Rick Neuheisel enters his second year with 16 returning starters, a star-studded defense and the best special teams in the Pac-10.
The Bruins get Cal and Oregon at home but must play better on the road (4-12 SU the last three years) if they want to earn a surprise trip to the Rose Bowl.
California
ATS: 19-19 (Home: 12-7. Away: 5-11)
Thing to remember:
USC
ATS: 21-17-1 (Home: 10-7-1. Away: 8-10)
Thing to remember: Grass slows these guys down. The under is 21-5-1 in the Trojans’ last 27 games on grass, including an impressive 16-5-1 mark at home in the Coliseum.
Oregon
ATS: 22-16 (Home: 11-6. Away: 9-8)
Non: 7-4. Conf: 15-12
Thing to remember: Nine players have left the program since Mike Belotti handed over the reins to longtime offensive coordinator and new head coach Chip Kelly. The biggest loss was projected starting wide receiver Chris Harper, a big-time recruit with dynamic athleticism. Some believed Harper, who received some snaps at quarterback last season, was the next Dennis Dixon. His defection will be felt.
Oregon State
ATS: 24-14 (Home: 11-6. Away: 10-7)
Thing to remember: The Beavers own the best in-conference ATS record over the past three seasons at 17-10. In coach Mike Riley’s six-year tenure, the Beavers are 41-30-1 ATS.
Stanford
ATS: 15-21 (Home: 8-10. Away: 7-11)
Thing to remember: Redshirt freshman quarterback Andrew Luck threw five touchdown passes in the spring game. He’ll have a strong offensive line, a 1,000-yard rusher in Toby Gerhart and the top three receivers from last season at his disposal. The Cardinal hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2001. That should change this year.
Arizona State
ATS: 17-18-1 (Home: 10-9; Away: 7-7-1)
Thing to remember: In Dennis Erickson’s third season at Miami (1992), he led the Hurricanes to an undefeated season and a national title. The under was 6-1 in Miami games that season.
Arizona
ATS: 19-16 (Home: 11-7. Away: 7-9)
Thing to remember: The Wildcats have everything, but a quarterback. Obviously, that’s a Mark Mangino-sized but.
A pair of inexperienced sophomores—Matt Scott and Nick Foles—will try to win the job in August, something neither was able to do in spring practice.
Arizona has some weapons on offense to help out, including All-American tight end Rob Gronkowski. But will either Scott or Foles be able to get him the ball?
Washington
ATS: 13-23-1 (Home: 6-14. Away: 7-9-1)
Thing to remember: First-year coach Steve Sarkisian inherits 18 returning starters, the most in the conference. But are 18 returning starters off a 0-12 team (1-11 ATS) really that valuable?
The Huskies own the Pac-10’s worst in conference ATS mark over the last three years at 8-19.
Washington State
ATS: 16-20 (Home: 11-10. Away: 7-11)
Thing to remember: The Cougars enter August without a clear-cut starting quarterback. Senior Kevin Lopina, who threw 11 interceptions and no touchdowns last season, is lead candidate. But hotshot sophomore Marshal Lobbestael will get a look. His touchdown-to-interception ratio was much better at 4-to-4.
Play the over on …
California: If the Bears get improved quarterback play from junior Kevin Riley, look out.
To make that possible, Cal hired veteran offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig, who spent the last three seasons at Utah. The Utes averaged 39 points a game and went undefeated last season.
Ludwig has developed quality quarterbacks throughout his career, including David Carr at Fresno State, Kellen Clemens at Oregon and Brian Johnson at Utah.
If Ludwig continues that trend with Riley, the Bears’ already potent running attack, featuring Jahvid Best, will become that much better.
Play the under on …
USC: When Pete Carroll named sophomore Aaron Corp his starting quarterback, the Trojan coach said it was the only choice he could make because Corp was the only QB who handle the signals coming in from the sidelines. That statement doesn’t exactly exude confidence.
The strength of the Trojan offense is up front, where all five starting linemen return, and at running back, where Stafon Johnson, Joe McKnight and C.J. Gable give USC a trio of potent weapons.
This could be the most run-oriented attack the Trojans have had in a long time.
Keeping the ball on the ground also will protect a fairy inexperienced defense as well. Still, with senior All-American safety Taylor Mays leading the defense, don’t expect opponents to score on the Trojans at will.
Pac-10 Football Preview
By: Nelly's Sportsline
Champion: USC
Runner-Up: California
Overrated: Arizona
Spread-Beater: Stanford
It would be very difficult and unwise to bet against USC to win the Pac-10 conference but this will be a less firm prediction than in most recent years. The Trojans return nine offensive starters but must replace QB Sanchez and the defense that carried the team much of the last two years brings back just three starters. The conference road games will be difficult and the early season game at Ohio State could steal some focus and attention that could be costly in the Pac-10 season. USC has been able to slip up in the conference season and still win the title each of the past three years so the question will be if any of the other contenders can make it interesting.
Coach Tedford has had seven straight winning seasons at California and this may be his best shot to unseat USC. The Bears have 15 returning starters including key players at every position and will get to host the Trojans early in the year. Cal must play a few tough conference road games however and they have not been a great road team in recent years including going just 1-4 S/U last season. The Bears have what it takes for a special season but a slip-up or two and just falling short seems to be the more likely scenario.
The defense will need to be re-built but it is hard to argue with the success of Oregon State in recent years, now having won at least nine games in three consecutive years. The offense has great talent at every position and the schedule will provide some opportunities. Oregon State is a very tough team at home and they host UCLA, Arizona, and Stanford, the teams likely competing for these spots.
After the top two the Pac-10 is a toss-up at this point and Stanford could actually take a big leap after showing significant signs of progress in the last two years. The Cardinal won four conference games last season and will host many of the teams packed in the middle of the league. 17 starters are returning and the lines on both side of the ball should be among the better units in the conference even if the skill players do not quite measure up to some of the other standout players in the conference.
Another team looking to make a big leap in the standings will be UCLA. After starting the season with great promise last year in a big upset win, the Bruins struggled most of the season. 16 starters are back in play and more consistent performances can be expected. UCLA’s defense was respectable last season and injuries took a serious toll on what could have been a much better team.
After finally making a bowl game and winning eight games there will be a bit of relief for Arizona but the expectations should grow. The Wildcats face a very difficult road schedule this season and replacing QB Tuitama and top receiver Thomas will be difficult. The defense also must replace three of the top four tacklers on last year’s team. Arizona will be a solid team again this season but likely will remain stagnant in the middle-of-the-pack despite expectations of taking the next step.
One of the most disappointing teams in the nation last season was Arizona State as the Sun Devils were expected to be a national force and opened the year ranked #15. Six straight losses changed things considerably and ASU will have a hard time re-gaining that confidence. The early season schedule is soft outside of a non-conference game at Georgia so Arizona State could actually match last year’s win total by the halfway point. Coach Erickson has a tremendous career record so another losing season would be a surprise.
The one team that has often appeared ready to challenge USC in the Pac-10 is Oregon but the Ducks are in transition this year. It should be a smoother process than many other coaching changes but only nine starters are back in action which could limit the results through a tough schedule that is front-loaded with big games. Oregon could be a surprise team that gets on a roll late in the year but expect a slow start from the Ducks even though many of the early games are at home.
After a winless season, there is nowhere to go but up for Washington. New coach Steve Sarkisian knows this conference well and he should see immediate results with 18 returning starters and a talented QB that missed most of last season due to injury. A very tough non-conference schedule will likely prevent a huge jump in the overall record but getting to three or four wins would be a reasonable expectation for a team that greatly underachieved last season and appeared to give up in many games. With some huge spreads early in the season, the Huskies might be a dog worth backing.
Although Washington State won two games last season they were generally regarded as one of the worst teams ever in the Pac-10. WSU allowed 58 or more points six times last year with horrendous defensive efforts. There is some experience on this team and last season injuries were devastating, but this is still a team with a long ways to go.