Pac 12 Preview
By Power Sports
Covers.com
We started our 2015 College Football preview, going conference by conference, last week with the SEC. This week we take a similar look at the Pac 12, whose champion last year (Oregon) was the favorite going into the first ever College Football Playoff Championship Game, but ultimately came up short. The perception though is that this still is a conference on the rise and probably a strong case could be made that the league ranks second to the SEC in terms of strength.
No Pac 12 team has been crowned National Champion since the heyday of USC under Pete Carroll. That was over a decade ago and there’s now a legit concern that the league’s more recent perennial power, Oregon, has seen its “championship window” start to close. However, I see a trio of other teams also being strong this year and the reality is that whomever wins the Conference Championship this year will end up in the CFP.
Offense still dominates the Pac 12 as five of the top 13 passing offenses hail from this league as do four of the top seven in the country in terms of plays per game. The Pac 12 actually has a better record in bowl games than does the SEC over the last two seasons and nine of its members went bowling last season with six teams posting nine or more wins!
Here’s what to look for this season:
Championship Game Pick – USC vs. Stanford
As alluded to above, Oregon is due to take a step back in 2015. I’ll go into further detail about the Ducks later, but their projected decline opens the door for a Stanford team that suffered a disappointing five losses last season (all against ranked teams). But the Cardinal are quite likely to bounce back when you consider three of those losses came by a field goal or less in games where they were favored. The schedule also sets up favorably for them as they get five conference home games, one of them vs. UO, and the four conference foes they visit were a combined 4-23 SU in league play in 2014! This is a program that won 11+ games each of the first three years under HC David Shaw and I see them returning to that level this year. QB Kevin Hogan, one of nine starters back on offense, looked a lot better in the final three games last season.
Over in the South Division, USC gets my nod as they get the all-important game with rival UCLA at home this year and for the first time since the late 90’s, they will enter that matchup with triple revenge. If I’m right and we do get a USC-Stanford Championship Game pairing, then it will be a regular season rematch (similar to my SEC Title Game pick) as the Trojans host the Cardinal very early in the year (Sept 19). Note that Southern Cal was able to win in Palo Alto last year despite being -122 in total yards for the game. All five Stanford drives in the second half went into USC territory, but none resulted in points! USC also gets five Pac 12 home games in the regular season and the best news is that their scholarship allotment has been raised after several probation-riddled years.
Team on the Rise: Stanford
Team(s) on the Decline: Arizona, Arizona State and Washington
Unlike the SEC preview, where I was generally able to single out one team for each of these distinctions, you can see I’m struggling to do that here in the Pac 12. But after the “big four” (USC, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon), I see a lot of mediocrity in this conference. That includes both teams from the state of Arizona, who are going to take an equal step back in 2015. The Wildcats & Sun Devils finished 1-2 in the tough South Division a year ago, but did so in spite of both actually being outgained in conference play! ASU has overachieved two years in a row (both 10 win seasons), at least in my opinion, so the step back is overdue. Arizona went 6-1 SU in games decided by a TD or less, the kind of record which typically signals fewer wins the following campaign.
As for Washington, they are projected for only four regular season wins, which might seem low, but consider they have a Pac 12-low nine starters back and have a much tougher schedule. Last year’s team went just 8-6 for new HC Chris Petersen and while the long-term prognosis might still look good, I say the Huskies take a step back this year.
Teams to Bet On: Washington State, Oregon State
Wazzu was a big disappointment last year going 3-9 SU for the second time in three seasons under HC Mike Leach. But I expect this team to be back challenging for a bowl in 2015 and a “buy low” candidate. Consider that last year saw them actually outgain conference foes by 46 YPG despite a 2-7 SU record! Turnovers (-17 for the season) killed them. The Cougars could start 4-0 this year and have enough winnable home games on the slate to get them back to the postseason.
Oregon State killed its backers with a 2-10 ATS record in 2014 and despite having only 10 returning starters (only two on defense) they shouldn’t be that bad again at the betting window. They bring in a new head coach, Gary Andersen, who I thought was a stunning coup after the equally surprising departure of Mike Riley. Honestly, I think the fresh face will serve the Corvallis faithful well and the Beavers (like every Pac 12 team) will at least challenge for a bowl. After going 7-0 ATS as a road dog the previous two seasons, OSU was 0-3 ATS in that role last year.
Team to Fade: Oregon
The Ducks return only 12 starters and suffer a major loss at the QB position with Marcus Mariota now in the NFL. They led the country last year with a +23 turnover differential and that’s going to be very hard to duplicate. Ironically, despite beating out rival Stanford in the North last year, their edge in yards per game in conference play was a lot closer than it was the previous two seasons when Stanford won the division both times due to head to head tiebreak. Not only do the Ducks travel to Palo Alto this year but they must go across the country in Week 2 to face a revenge-minded (and very good) Michigan State team. They went 10-5 ATS last year, but this year’s squad isn’t going to be as capable of covering some of those high spreads. I also have my questions about HC Mark Helfrich as we move further and further away from the Chip Kelly era.
Other Things to Know
You’ll note that thus far I’ve made little mention of UCLA, who brings 18 starters back, but will be breaking in a new QB. They had a similar record to Arizona in close games last season, so coupled with having to travel to cross-town rival USC, I have the Bruins finishing second in the South. They also have to go to Stanford (on a Thursday night) and they’ve lost seven straight times to the Cardinal.
Colorado could easily match last year’s two win total by the second week and double their wins by the end of September. This is the Buffs third season under Mike MacIntyre, which is usually the make or break year for a coach in terms of progress. They were 4-1 ATS as home dogs last year.
I’m having a hard time figuring out Utah, who opens the year as a favorite at home against Michigan. The Utes, on paper, have their best team since coming over to the Pac 12, but could be undone by the fact they were actually last in terms of net yards per game in conference play in 2014. I do not see them equaling last year’s 9-win total.