Paper Tigers
By Joe Nelson
Last week we saw a nearly unprecedented collapse in the Top 10 of the polls as four teams were knocked out from the ranks of the unbeaten. These were teams projected to have big years but some of them were ranked highly based on preseason projections and results from last year rather than anything that happened on the field this season. Another team fits that bill this week and could be due for a big fall.
Last week the middle of the top ten fell out of the polls as No. 4 Mississippi was wiped out on Thursday night in South Carolina, No. 5 Penn State came up short against Iowa, and No. 6 California was blown out at Oregon. No. 9 Miami was also crushed at Virginia Tech for four Top 10 losers. Mississippi and Penn State both had impressive 2008 seasons and returned a lot of key players. Both teams also have favorable schedules this season which led to the teams being projected to do well by most publications but on the field in 2009 they had accomplished nothing with wins over weak opponents. Both were thoroughly exposed last week.
California played a pair of somewhat tough non-conference games so there was a little weight in the resume but the Bears either got caught looking ahead to USC or overlooked an Oregon team that had endured an unimpressive start to the season. Miami had delivered two solid ACC wins but there was a little too much hype building at the U as they easily could have lost to Florida State and then beat Georgia Tech in an incredibly favorable situation. The team that could face a fall this week nearly got caught last week as LSU escaped Starkville with a narrow win and this week sits as the No. 4 ranked team in the nation.
LSU did win at Washington earlier this season, something USC couldn’t do, so there is a solid win on the resume. The Tigers were thoroughly out-gained in that match-up however, just as they were at Mississippi State last week. Wins over Vanderbilt and Louisiana were a bit more impressive but neither of those wins justify putting LSU as a top ten team. LSU is coming off a disappointing 8-5 season following the national championship in 2007 but they got some momentum into the 2009 rankings with a blowout bowl win over an overrated Georgia Tech team last year. LSU is the type of school that gets great athletes in a recruiting hotbed but too often this is a team that is highly ranked and overvalued based on the potential of players that have not actually proven much on the field, as is the case this season.
Coach Les Miles has a championship under his belt and a 46-11 record at LSU but he inherited a team two years removed from a national title and filled with Nick Saban recruits. Miles has done a fine job but his national title season was not overwhelming as the team lost twice and snuck out several narrow wins in a year with few standout teams. One could argue that his 2006 team that went 11-2 and lost two tough SEC road games narrowly to Top 5 ranked teams and then blew out Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl was the more impressive squad. Last year in his fourth season and filled with many of his own recruits finally, Miles had a disappointing year.
Unlike past seasons where the losses tended to be very narrow, the Tigers were crushed in a couple of games. LSU lost by 30 at Florida, lost by 14 at home against Georgia, lost by 18 at home against Mississippi, and also lost close games to Alabama and Arkansas, teams LSU has been accustomed to beating in the last decade. The Tigers also narrowly avoided a huge embarrassment with a miraculous comeback win against Troy. Now that Miles has his own players things are not going to go as smooth and the Tigers are set for a fall from automatic top ten national contender status, likely starting this week.
Last week LSU could get very little going on offense and needed a miraculous goal line stand to hold on against Mississippi State. The Tigers had a 4-0 turnover edge including an interception return touchdown and yet won just 30-26. The allegedly superior athletes at LSU had 30 rushing yards and just 12 first downs as they were thoroughly outplayed by the Bulldogs for the most part. Two weeks ago hosting Louisiana, LSU won 31-3 but out-gained the Ragin’ Cajuns by only 58 yards and again had a big turnover edge. The effort against Vanderbilt was more decided on defense but LSU managed just 23 points on offense and hardly looked like a dominant team that deserves a top five ranking. As mentioned earlier the Washington win featured a yardage deficit and had the Huskies not been coming off a 0-12 season with a new coach they might have had the poise and confidence to pull off the upset.
This week LSU faces a Georgia team that has already lost and has played arguably the toughest schedule in the nation. By season’s end each of Georgia’s four opponents could likely be rated as a stronger team than any of the four teams that LSU has played so far this year. Turnovers killed the Bulldogs in the opener at Oklahoma State but the Bulldogs dominated that game in the early going and appeared to be the better team until the momentum changed. Georgia won in a shootout against South Carolina and also outlasted a greatly improved Arkansas team on the road. Arizona State is a hard team to gauge right now but the nonetheless it was an impressive non-conference win against a major conference opponent. Georgia now gets to host LSU and the Bulldogs have a much more impressive resume and they have been truly tested against a quality schedule.
There are not many other teams with light resumes this week that could be exposed. Michigan has climbed back into the rankings and sits undefeated through four weeks. The Wolverines may have survived their exposure game last week, needing a great finish to hold off an Indiana team expected to be the worst in the conference. Michigan could run into trouble in a rivalry game this week against a 1-3 Michigan State team that is desperate and much better than the record indicates. Iowa jumped in the polls after a big win and the Hawkeyes could struggle against a solid Arkansas State team that can run the ball and will be motivated for the big stage.
Iowa nearly lost to FCS Northern Iowa earlier in the year and the win over Penn State may not as impressive by season’s end so this is a team with a suspect resume and possibly an inflated ranking. Houston has also risen in the rankings on the heels of two big wins over Big XII foes but they will have to prove it this week in a much different situation playing as a heavy road favorite against a conference opponent.