Patriots vs. Dolphins in NFL Week 13 – Who Do the Experts Pick
AFC East rivals clash in Week 13 when the Miami Dolphins host the New England Patriots at 1:00PM ET on Sunday.
The Patriots lost in Week 12 as 2-point underdogs when they were defeated 38-17 by the Saints. Tom Brady was 21-of-36 passing for 237 yards with two interceptions for New England as the combined score fell under the posted total of 57 points.
The Dolphins also lost in Week 12, as they were defeated 31-14 as a 3-point favorite against Buffalo. The combined score went over the posted total of 38.5 points as Chad Henne threw for 175 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions for Miami. Ricky Williams also chipped in 115 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sports Interaction have made the Patriots 4.5-point favorites over the Dolphins in Week 13. The over/under total for Sunday’s matchup has been set at 45.5 points.
This seems like a small trap game with the Patriots only being favored by 4.5 points. Even though the Dolphins are at home, one would think that New England would still be favored by 6 points, or even by a full touchdown.
Miami is 4-2 against the spread in its last six games when playing New England and covered as an 11-point underdog when these two teams played in early September. They seem to have a fair amount of success against the Patriots and we think this will wind up being a three-point game either way.
Our free pick prediction for this game is Miami +4.5 and the under, which has hit in five of New England’s last six games on the road. Divisional games are usually tight and we think Sunday’s game will be no different.
Our NFL Week 13 Free Pick for this matchup is: MIAMI DOLPHINS +4.5 and UNDER 45.5.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Current Odds
363 New England Patriots –4.5 Over 45.5
364 Miami Dolphins +4.5 Under 45.5
NFL Week 13 Betting Trends
New England is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
New England is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games at home
NFL Week 13 Injury Report
NEW ENGLAND
[LB] 08/26/2009 - Tyrone McKenzie IR ( Knee )
- 09/05/2009 - George Bussey IR ( Knee )
[RB] 11/30/2009 - Fred Taylor "?" Sunday vs. Miami ( Ankle )
[RB] 11/30/2009 - Sammy Morris "?" Sunday vs. Miami ( Knee )
[DE] 11/03/2009 - Jarvis Green out indefinitely ( Knee )
[WR] 11/18/2009 - Brandon Tate IR ( Knee )
[DB] 11/30/2009 - Shawn Springs "?" Sunday vs. Miami ( Knee )
[LB] 11/30/2009 - Rob Ninkovich "?" Sunday vs. Miami ( Knee )
[WR] 11/30/2009 - Julian Edelman "?" Sunday vs. Miami ( Forearm )
[OT] 11/30/2009 - Sebastian Vollmer "?" Sunday vs. Miami ( Concussion )
MIAMI
[QB] 09/28/2009 - Chad Pennington IR ( Shoulder )
[CB] 10/27/2009 - Will Allen IR ( Knee )
[RB] 10/20/2009 - Patrick Cobbs IR ( Knee )
[RB] 11/19/2009 - Ronnie Brown IR ( Foot )
[LB] 11/29/2009 - Eric Walden "?" Sunday vs. New England ( Hamstring )
[DT] 11/23/2009 - Jason Ferguson out for season ( Quad )
[DE] 11/30/2009 - Lionel Dotson "?" Sunday vs. New England ( Ankle )
[C] 12/03/2009 - Jake Grove is downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs. New England ( Ankle )