Pick Wiz 12/22 Plays

Giants @ Eagles +1.5

Yes, Philly has a good home record (4-2 compared to 1-7 on the road) and fading a home dog always scares me but this is more of a home puppy, IMO. Money is also coming in on NYG at a 75% clip but the line keeps moving down, which is always a sign of sharp money coming in on Phi, also something that scares me - both reasons I'm playing small. Plus the fact that every time but ONCE this year when I've played on or against Philly they've burned me. I do expect Wentz to struggle with the Giants D in this game in the same way that Prescott did, a D who has quietly become one of the top in the league allowing 18 PPG. The Giants are playing for the WC spot despite their 10-4 record, whereas the Eagles have all but mailed it in having lost nine of their last eleven. That's a lot of L's. 6 (Stafford), 7 (Prescott), 24 (Big Ben, IN PIT), 13, 16.... all numbers the Giants D has held their opponents to in the L5 contests. Expect a heavy dose of ODB and whatever stupid shit/way he figured out how to cost his team in penalty yardage over this week in tonight's Thursday night spot light. The under seems like it could be a good play but they put up too many points last time they played one another for me to bite.

Trends:

Giants:

4-0 ATS last 4 Thursday games
9-4 ATS last 13 in September
Road team is 15-7-1 ATS last 23 in series

Eagles:

0-4 ATS last 4 vs. NFC East
1-4 ATS last 5 Thursday games
2-6 ATS last 8 in Week 16

PICK: Giants -1.5
AMNT: 550/500

LSU @ Wake Forest -10

The records are misleading here... two of Wake's losses have come to ranked teams (one of which was a close call to Xavier) whereas LSU, also an impressive record... hasn't played any top ranks. Wake dominates at home. In their first four home games, they've won the first half by an average of 13.5 points per game. They’re definitely a team that starts off fast and grabs a big lead. The tigers on the other hand are clearly a team who struggles on the road to winning teams. Wake is just the better team and playing at home... should do some damage tonight.

Trends:

LSU:

Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their L5 vs. Atlantic Coast
Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their L6 road games
Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their L5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600
Tigers are 0-6-1 ATS in their L7 games following a ATS win
Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their L5 road games vs. a team w a winning home record

Wake Forest:

Demon Deacons are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss

PICK: Wake -10 / 1st H -5.5
AMNT: 1100/1000 & 550/500

George Washington @ Miami -14.5

A case of an undefeated road team playing an undefeated home team. GW averages 70 points per game and just put up 74 on a Central Fla team who had been limiting opponents to 53 all year. Miami allows 57 ppg. This is too many points despite the absence (injury) of starting guard Yuta Watanabe (great name). This is too many points to give up to a team that scores this much, especially when the trends are as strong as they are. The 'Cains have a top rated D (2nd lowest in country) however they haven't played any note worthy opponents whereas GW has been in every game, even one's they've lost.

Trends:

George Washington:

5-0 ATS in their last five road games
4-0 ATS in their last four road games against teams with winning home records
10-2 Under in their last 12 games against the ACC

Miami:

0-5 ATS in their last five overall
0-4 ATS in their last four home games
1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with winning records

PICK: GW +14.5
AMNT: 1100/1000

BOL