Pick Wiz Plays 12/28

I guess I'm going to "bore you all with stats and trends". No, they're not everything but they're certainly worth looking at and anyone who says otherwise is a clown. Check back later for additional plays.

UMass (8-4 ATS, 3-1 as dog) vs Georga State -3 (4-4 ATS, 1-2 as fav)

The wrong team is favored here simply because they're playing at home. Yes, GS (7-4) just came off an impressive victory against one of my favorite teams to play, Middle Tenn St. but that's been their only true success to date. Any team they've played other than MTS as kicked their ass and usually by double digits, with their four losses coming by an average of 15 points: (Auburn, 10-2 by 18), Purdue (11-2 by 8 ), ODU (7-4 by 12), Miss St (8-3 by 22). UMass (8-3) on the other hand has already been tested and hung tough on the road against Providence (8-2, 1st Big East by 6), UCF (9-3, 1st American by 3), Ole Miss (9-2, 1st SEC by 2), Temple (9-2, 1st American by 3) and most recently to Rider (8-3, 1st MAAC by 11). I like UMass to blow the doors off this one... take the points +3. If my site offers reverse action on this tomorrow when over-night limits are lifted... I'll be looking to place action for + money as I think they win by more than 3, let alone loose by less than 3.

Trends

UMass:

4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win
4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record
4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games
5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games following three or more consecutive home games

Georgia State:

2-6 ATS in their last 8 Wednesday games
1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record
1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record
1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 home games

PICK: UMass +3 ** I haven't played this yet because I think the line moves to 3.5-4 tomorrow
AMNT: 1430/1300 (will be laying)

Houston @ UConn -1

One things for sure... this ain't your Jim Calhoun Huskies anymore. Coming into this contest at just 5-6 (2-4 at home) with no offence to speak of the Huskies face off against an offensively and defensively strong Houston (9-3) squad who will come in hot looking to avenge a dog shit loss against the wicked smaat guys at Harvard after just flat out not showing up (shooting 33% from the field, 35% from long range) in what was their worse defense showing of the year. Check out these numbers and tell me Houston isn't going to win:

Houston

Cougars leading scorers Rob Gray at 20.1 ppg, while 2nd is Damyean Dotson at 14.8 ppg. Devin Davis is 3rd at 11.1 ppg, (missed the last four games and is questionable for this one).

Cougars rank 57th in the nation in scoring (80.5 ppg), 37th in FG% (48.4%), 3rd in 3-point shooting (42.9%) and 81st in free throw shooting (72.9%). Defensively ranked 39th in points allowed, allowing 63.8 ppg, ranked 74th in defensive FG% (40.2%) and 138th in 3-point defense (33.5%).

UConn

Leading scorers for Huskies are Jalen Adams at 16.6 ppg, while 2nd is Rodney Purvis at 12.8 ppg. They are the only two actives that average in double-figures as Terry Larrier (13.5 ppg) and Alterique Gilbert (10.3 ppg) are both out for the year.

The Huskies rank 292nd in the nation in scoring (67.8 ppg), ranking 243rd in FG% (42.9%), 323rd in 3-point shooting (30.1%) and 328th in free throw shooting (62.7%). Defense is their only strength (and they'll need it today) ranking 98th in points allowed (67.6 ppg) while also ranking 21st in defensive FG% (37.8%) and 128th in 3-point defense (33.2%).

TRENDS:

Houston:

6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss
4-1-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing straight up record

Connecticut:

2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall
The favorite is 1-5 the last six in the series

PICK: Houston +1

AMNT: 1430/1300

Depaul @ Villanova -26

Not much to talk about here other than the fact this is like the freshman team playing the varsity. It's a high number but think about what 'Nova will do to a 15th seed in the tournament come time... they'll beat them by 30+... DePaul is no 15th seed... not these days they're not.

DePaul:

2-6 ATS last 8 in series.
1-4-1 ATS last 6 Wednesday games
Villanova:

4-1 ATS last 5 overall
14-5 ATS last 19 Wednesday games

PICK: Nova -26
AMNT: 1430/1300

BOL and check back....