LSU vs Louisville +3
Yes I know Louisville has the Heisman Trophy winner in Lamar Jackson but Jackson's giant neck has not faced a defense like LSU. The Tigers defense held the number one team in the country that averages 40 PPG to only 10 points. Louisville comes into this game with a 2-game losing streak and if their offense struggles against LSU's defense this game could be over quickly for the Cardinals. LSU will not have Leonard Fournette due to his business decision (that while selfish, is hard to argue with) but Derrius Guice, the Tigers leading rushing anyway (1249/14TD) is a beast, and L'Ville will get a heavy does of him. Louisville is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and the LSU Tigers closed the season going 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
PICK: LSU -3 (-115)
AMNT: 1495/1300 (filled OPEN parlay 1000/3562) - this is your salute to service bailout game armyranger
Clemson vs Ohio St -2.5
Clemson doesn't blow people out but they do know how to win (Watkins is 30-3 as a starter... yeah, I said the same thing when I read it), just ask Auburn (19-13), Louisville (42-36), Florida State (37-34 on the road), and Virginia Tech (42-35). Those are all really good teams. OSU is a great team in their own right but they've struggled against some teams they should have rolled over, Michigan State (17-16 win) and barely beat Northwestern at home (24-20). On paper these two teams match up pretty evenly but I'm going to lean Clemson in this case because of the blemishes that OSU has shown throughout the year and because of the strengths in trends. It'd be easy to tout a line of +3 but I don't do that (despite what others might say), +2.5 is what's available to me right now and I'm kicking myself for not getting on it at +3. The cost to buy the half for me right now is -150, which is crazy so I'm going to wait it out to see if that cost comes down at all. The line looks like it's continuing to trend downward but there isn't as big a difference between 2.5 and 2 as their is from 3 to 2.5; you all know this already. If you can get 3 right now for a reasonable cost (-120/-130)... do it, now... otherwise you can do what I'm doing and wait to see if it the cost comes down any.
TRENDS:
Clemson
7-1 ATS record in their last eight neutral site games
5-0 ATS in their last five Bowl Games
7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a game where they gave up more than 280 yards through the air in their previous contest
Clemson covered 5 of last 6 games played in the month of December
Ohio State
2-5 ATS in their last seven games where they faced a team with a winning record
2-5 ATS record in their last seven games following a straight up win
1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss
2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall
Urban Meyer led teams are 10-2 SU in bowl games :S
PICK: CLEMSON
AMNT: will be 1300 if I can get 3, will be 1000 if it's less
Alabama vs Washington -14
I've been a fan, watching the Dawgs do their thing all season and the dogs are doing really well this bowl season, which makes the big number here really attractive but at the end of the day, neither of those things factor into this game. Two TD's seems like a lot but the Tide is hands down the better team here. Their O line are all future NFLers, you can't say the same about UW's D line. They man-handled USC 52-6 while UW lost to them by 13... at home. Yes, UW has a killer offense (and a pretty good D) but they haven't faced a D like the Tide yet that allows a measly 11.8 PPG in a tough SEC, making them number one in the country. Offensively, they're putting up 40 PPG (471 YPG) against the likes of Auburn team who ranks 6th in the nation with 16 PPG allowed and posted 54 against a Florida D that ranks in the top five. Washington's D while good, isn't in the top 10. I'm a Pac12 guy myself but lets not look past how Col, Utes and Wazzu have all fared this bowl season (yes, Utes won but 'com on... IU by 2???). Point being, it somewhat takes away from the shine that UW carries for haven beaten them all the way they did. I think they win this game by 21+ but buy the half if it's not too expensive just in case.
TRENDS:
Washington:
No notable trends
Alabama
13-6 ATS last 19 neutral site games
13-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
6-2 ATS last 8 overall
PICK: 'Bama -13.5 (buy the half)
AMNT: 1560/1300
3, 2 team round robin parlay ($750) payouts TBD (holding off on the Clemson play for a little while I watch the lines)
We should make some money on these boys. Happy New Year to you all and be safe... remember, it' armature hour out there on this night. Us real professional party goers don't just restrict ourselves to blow'in it out one night of the year.
BOL.
I'm sure Stanford bettors would beg to differ about the difference between 2-2.5 not being a big deal. Oye.
Hesiman winner won last 7 bowl games.
Louis been money all year. Also the name of my first born. Hoever I love LSU. More complete team and i hink they will be more motivated. Lsu is the play.
I got Clemson ats and money line for 5u each.
Most likely upgrade to a 10u play dor both.
Leaning on bama as well. But I hate playing or fading Saban.
BOL brother. Keep them pics coming. U been solid
I ended up finishing up my plays at +2.5 for Clem at 1100/1000. I didn't want to see LSU go to 3.5 while I was waiting for a Clemson line to come back that never would. Watch, it will tomorrow. Also, did a reverse instead of a RR parlay. 3500/6000.
Good luck tomorrow, even to the DB's of the world (trying to get right with the gambling Gods with this much action on the table and Monday's meeting with the book right around the corner!). There might be additional plays but few if any tomorrow... I F-ed myself with the K St game playing too many games; took away from what should have been a better day if I just limited myself to only three plays like I'm doing here. Don't make the same mistake. These should all serve us well. BOL
I just got in asshole as i said i pray to god, ur fuckin demise you r with out a doubt the biggest piece of white trash i have , encountered in my life assuming u r white, i will re/state i hope to god some 1 pisses on your grave and soon, you r a phony and a piece of shit, you will get yours scumbag, scum like you do not last very long, how r the piss tests going asshole, your a punk and a story teller, as i said before, just wish you were right the fuck here, useless
i think both piss wizz and ttomblow are on the make myself why they always send me love sonnets just look at the poem ttomblow send me sorry ttomblow i married an havent the time for suiters but youll always have a spot in my heart .both you an that sweety pizz wizz oops dont want to leave out that other fella whom ever he is lets call him laughing boy he laughed for 5 min. he says . the love you guys exude is intoixicating .well you three fellas enjoy the new year and piss wizz try to set a new years resolution not to turn in fake score cards an lieing to us all you know about getting circled by any books in the new year ! love an kisses sweetys ! oh by the way ttomblow ill post when ever i have the time i know you miss me !
Thanks Wiz,
I do appreciate the acknowledgment...Your right on the picks today. I wish I went with ala.. Bad mistake on my part. Watching clm. game now.Lookin good so far. I may have went with lou.. if you hadn't expressed your pick on LSU.. Thank you again and keep posting.. HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!