6-3 +$4325
Tough back door loss on Dallas to go 1-1 on the day, eating the juice of $245. Where's a 'contact to the helmet' call when you need one!? I'm not that guy that runs back to the forum AFTER the game concludes to claim that he picked the winning team. Tiny Timmy you make me chuckle. I lost more in juice than you probably laid in action if you actually did make a play, which is highly doubtful. Onto today's picks...
Colorado vs Washington -8.5
Money is pretty evenly split on the two sides with the public siding with Washington slightly more (54%). The line opened at 7 in most places and is up to 8.5 having peaked at 9 in some places. I waited for my book to get to 9 but it never happened so I secured 8.5 before that came back down. Defensively the two teams are pretty evenly matched, limiting teams to 19 (Col) and 18 (Was) points per game but I'm attributing Washington's total to their first three games versus Portland State, Idaho and Rutgers who is quite possibly the worse team in FBS . Offensively the Dawgs are superior averaging 10 more points per game scoring 40 points with regularity. Looking at common opponents, this game should be closer than the line indicates:
Was Col
AZ 35-28 49-24
OR 70-21 41-38
OR ST 40-17 41-6
STAN 44-6 10-6
WA ST 45-17 34-17
USC 13-26 17-21
UTAH 34-21 27-22
ASU 44-18 40-16
I'm banking on Colorado's defense to show up big tonight to slow (not stop) the stout Washington offense, just as they did last week when they limited the great Joe Williams to "just" 97 yards. Though trends lean towards Washington in this one as the Dawgs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after conceding less than 150 rushing yards in their previous game whereas Colorado is 0-6 in their last six games vs the Dawgs. But this is a very different Colorado team than from years past. I don't expect a blow out and if Colorado is able to strike first and big, 15.5 points seems like a tall order to come back from in a game that I'm expecting will be competitive down to the wire. Small play on Colorado.
KEVIN'S PICK: COL +8.5
AMNT: 1100/1000
Sacramento vs Boston -6.5
No time for a write-up other than to say until the C's start showing more promise (even at home where they're 4-4), it's going to be tough to lay money on their side. I'm not as much betting on Sac as I am betting against the C's. Take the points
Sacramento
Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Atlantic
Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record
Kings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Friday games
Boston
Celtics are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 vs. Western Conference
Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Pacific
KEVIN'S PICK: SAC +6.5
AMNT: 1100/1000
Houston vs. Denver -5
This game opened up between 1-2 and is now up to 5 in most places. Bottom line is Denver gives up a bunch of points and Houston scores a bunch of points. This is way too many points to a Houston team that could challenge for the outright win.
TRENDS:
Rockets
6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400.
6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the Northwest division
Nuggets:
No Key Trends
KEVIN'S PICK: HOU +5
AMNT: 1430/1300
BOL
I stand corrected. Looks like Tiny Timmy did stumble into getting the right side. I just don't spend the time prowling forums the way some folk do. Keep the picks come'in tiny! I'll keep track for both our sake.