Picks: Free Service Plays for Friday, January 12, 2018

Scott Spreitzer
Jan 12 '18, 8:05 PM in 10h
NBA | Warriors vs Bucks
Play on: Bucks +6 -105 at Bovada

I'm taking the points with the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday. Golden State will likely be without Steph Curry (ankle) tonight and while they own a deeply talented squad able of overcoming one or two injured players, the fact is, this line is a little high as far as we're concerned. GSW is basically playing out the regular season only truly concerned about staying healthy and readying themselves for another championship run once the postseason arrives. They aren't quite as indifferent about the regular season as the Cavaliers, but they also only tend to "drop the clutch" every once in a while. In fact, they've covered just six of their last 16 games. Milwaukee has won 12 of their last 16 home games and the "Greek Freak" is on fire, nailing 61 percent of his shots in 2018 (six games). All five starters reached at least 14 points in their 110-103 win over Orlando last time out. The Bucks are on an 8-2-1 ATS run against teams with a winning record and while the common assumption would be that Golden State bounces back well off a loss by more than 10 points, the fact is they're just 3-9 ATS in this situation. We're grabbing the points with the Bucks on Friday night as they look to extend their head-to-head spread run to 11-3-1. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

Larry Ness
Jan 12 '18, 8:05 PM in 10h
NBA | Warriors vs Bucks
Play on: Bucks +6 -105 at Bovada

My 1* Free Play is on the Milwaukee Bucks (8:05 EST).

I think we’re going to witness a very competitive battle between these non-conference opponents on Friday night.

Golden State comes in off a 125-106 loss to the Clippers in its latest action, while Milwaukee comes in off a 110-103 home win over Orlando on Wednesday. Not surprisingly, this sets up as a “revenge” scenario for the home side after the Warriors took both meetings last year.

Golden State averages 115.7 PPG and it concedes 106.6. Kevin Durant had 40 points in his team’s latest loss to LA.

Milwaukee averages 106 PPG and it concedes 106 as well. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 26 points and seven boards in his team’s latest victory.

I’ll point out that Golden State is just 9-10 ATS this season against teams with winning records and only 4-5 ATS this year after allowing 115 points or more in its previous outing, while Milwaukee is 10-8 ATS against clubs with winning records and 7-6 ATS against good offensive teams which average 106-plus points per game.

With a tough matchup tomorrow night in Toronto, followed by a game in Cleveland, clearly it’s not too hard to imagine Golden State getting caught “looking ahead” here as well.

While I’m not calling for the outright upset, everything does indeed point to a very tight game. Consider the Bucks in this one.

Good luck…Larry

Matt Josephs
Jan 12 '18, 7:00 PM in 9h
NCAA-B | Cleveland State vs Oakland
Play on: OVER 156 -110

Oakland wraps up a four game home stand and has lost three of their last four overall. The Grizzlies have been awful defensively as of late allowing 80 or more in four straight and seven of their last eight. They can do so because of a really potent offense led by Kendrick Nunn, Jalen Hayes and Martez Walker who average over 60 points per game combined. They've gone over in seven of their last nine games. Cleveland State is coming off an 85-84 loss at Detroit. This is a team that has allowed 85, 111, 81, 79, 78, 72, 72, 70 and 67 on the road. They've gone over in four of five and five of their last seven games. It's not so much their offense, but their true lack of defense that has allowed them to do so. The Vikings have some talent with Kenny Carpenter, Bobby Word and Tyree Appleby. To me, Oakland will do a lot of the lifting.

Jimmy Boyd
Jan 12 '18, 5:30 PM in 7h
NCAA-B | Brown vs Yale
Play on: Brown +8 -102 at 5Dimes

Free Pick on Brown +

Tommy Brunson

Comp winner for tonight in the NBA is the Orlando Magic plus the double-digits over the Washington Wizards.

Orlando may be losers of 6 straight and 15 of 16, but they are facing a team that has shown ALL first half of the season long that they like to play down to their competition level.

Washington has dropped their last pair of games straight up, and when asked to cover a number, the Wizards continue to burn money at an alarming pace. Washington has lost 3 straight against the spread and 13 of 16 overall when listed as the chalk! Hardly awe-inspiring numbers when you are being asked to lay double-digits tonight.

Orlando has covered 2 of the last 3 series meetings, and I like them to cover here again tonight against this Washington team that just cannot seem to reward their backers.

2* ORLANDO

Joey Juice

Denver is on a 3 game slide as they watch guard Will Barton struggle night after night. He is now 13-of-36 from the floor during this three-game set back.

Nuggets Center Nikola Jokic is also tanking. He went just 4-of-21 from the floor on Wednesday, and that inclused 0-of-8 from three-point range.

The bottom line is that when the Grizzlies play good teams the games always go Under, the under is 4-0 in the Grizzlies’ last four against winning opponents.

Combine that with the fact that most of the Nuggets games lately have gone under, they are 7-3 under in last 10 overall. Under is in the air in Denver, Nuggets are 4-1 under in their last five at home.

Finally, when these two teams play the game almost always goes under, the under is 14-6 in the last 20 times these two teams met.

Under is the play

2* MEMPHIS-DENVER UNDER

Jack Jones
Jan 12 '18, 9:05 PM in 9h
NBA | Grizzlies vs Nuggets
Play on: Grizzlies +7½ -105 at 5Dimes

Jack’s Free Pick Friday: Memphis Grizzlies +7.5

The Memphis Grizzlies have been a nice money maker over the last couple weeks. They have gone 3-3 SU but 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They have gotten healthy and Tyreke Evans has really given them a spark as he is playing arguably the best basketball of his career.

I think the Grizzlies will be able to go on the road tonight and hang with the Denver Nuggets, who have left a lot to be desired here of late. Denver is 0-3 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in its last three games overall. The Nuggets lost 98-106 at Sacramento, 114-124 at short-handed Golden State, and 97-110 as 9.5-point home favorites against Atlanta.

Memphis is 8-2 straight up in its last 10 meetings with Denver. The Grizzlies have gone 4-1 straight up in their last five trips to Denver. Now they don’t even have to win this game to cover, they just have to stay within 7.5 points.

Plays against home favorites (Denver) after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) against a bad team (25% to 40%) are 45-18 (71.4%) ATS since 1996. The Nuggets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet the Grizzlies Friday