Jack Jones
Dec 02 '17, 12:00 PM in 1d
NCAA-F | Memphis vs Central Florida
Play on: Central Florida -7 -115 at Bovada
Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: UCF -7
I’ll go back to the well one more time on the UCF Knights, who have been very good to me this season. I’ve actually laid off them the last several weeks because the value just wasn’t there. And they’ve gone 1-3-1 ATS in their last five lined games. I think the fact that they have struggled ATS lately after covering their first five games of the season has them a little undervalued now.
Memphis, on the other hand, has covered five straight games coming into the AAC Championship. That recent ATS success has the Tigers getting some respect from the oddsmakers and betting public, and I think they are overvalued. But most of those wins have come against cupcake opponents. This will be a big step up in class for them here.
We saw what happened when these teams played earlier this season as I was all over UCF in the game as my 25* AAC GAME OF THE YEAR. The Knights rolled to a 40-13 victory as 5.5-point favorites. There was nothing fluky about that result as the Knights outgained the Tigers 603 to 396 for the game, or by 207 total yards.
UCF held Memphis’ offense to just 13 points while forcing four turnovers in Riley Ferguson’s worst game of the season. And that’s the difference in this game is that UCF plays defense, while Memphis does not. The Knights give up just 22.5 points per game and 399 yards per game, while the Tigers allow 30.8 points and 454 yards per game. The offenses are evenly matched, but the Knights do rank 1st in the country in scoring offense at 48.5 points per game.
Now this will be another home game for the Knights as it’s played at Spectrum Stadium down in Orlando. I think Scott Frost is likely to go coach somewhere else after this game, but his players have his back and he wants to go out a winner in the worst way. Do I think the rematch will be closer? Yes. But the Knights should have no problem winning this game by more than a touchdown.
Memphis is 10-27 ATS in its last 37 games after scoring 42 points or more last game. The Tigers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Knights are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five trips to UCF. The Knights are 10-0 SU in their last 10 meetings with Memphis, winning nine of those 10 games by 7 points or more. Bet UCF Saturday.
Bobby Conn
Dec 02 '17, 12:30 PM in 1d
NCAA-F | TCU vs Oklahoma
Play on: Oklahoma -7 -110
1* Free Play on Oklahoma -7 -110
Freddy Wills
Dec 02 '17, 12:00 PM in 1d
NCAA-F | North Texas vs Florida Atlantic
Play on: Florida Atlantic -11 -110 at BMaker
Freddy has gone 8-4 ATS this season on Free college plays after an 11-3 ATS in 2016. Freddy is our resident #1 overall profit leader in college football profit in a career.
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Florida Atlantic -11 1.1% Free Play
This was a crushing victory for FAU the first time these two met with a 69-31 final. FAU really did whatever they wanted in that game it wasn’t like a ton of turnovers or missed tackles they were running wide open. North Texas can’t put 8 in the box to stop the run either because FAU can throw the ball and threw the ball for over 300 yards in this game as well. FAU had 800+ yards in this match-up. This game is also at home, and both teams like to play fast so don’t be surprised as an 11 point spread is more like a TD spread in a lower scoring game.
This game was also 48-10 FAU before they sort of let North Texas score some points. North Texas for sure will be scoring in the 40’s in my opinion as North Texas has allowed 50 points per game when facing a top 50 offense which has happened 4 times this year. Their defensive weakness is also against the run which does not look good for them here. They also allowed 38 points to Old Dominion who finished the season ranking 112th in yards per play. Without a ton of turnovers I don’t see how North Texas can stay in this game. North Texas was -7 in TO margin this year while FAU was +12.
Marc Lawrence
Dec 02 '17, 7:30 PM in 1d
NCAA-F | Troy vs Arkansas State
Play on: Troy PK -110 at betonline
Play - Troy (Game 311).
Edges - Trojans: 8-1-1 ATS last 10 games as a dog… Red Wolves: 1-3 ATS as favorites versus .750 or greater conference foes… With the Trojans looking to avenge a 35-3 loss as 10-point home chalk last year, we recommend a 1* play on Troy. Thank you and good luck as always.
> Marc’s smoking hot hand on the CFB gridiron (19-5 last 24 releases) rolls on Saturday with his Top Rated 10* Conference Championship Play Of The Year. If you like NEVER LOST winning situations you need to put this beauty right at the top of your ticket now - don’t dare miss out!
Jeff Allen
Dec 02 '17, 4:30 PM in 1d
NCAA-F | South Alabama vs New Mexico State
Play on: New Mexico State -9½ -110 at betonline
Jeff Allen's Free Play for Saturday College Football is on the New Mexico State Aggies
Doug Martin was 10-38 in four years at New Mexico State and coaching for his job this year. The Aggies are in their final year in the Sunbelt and will go independent and Martin went out and got the best 16 Jucos he could find to play now in an all in move. It's worked as NMSU has been competitive all year and if not for a shoulder injury to QB Tyler Rodgers, the Aggies would probably be bowl eligible at this point rather than at 5-6. Rodgers is probable and will face a 4-7 Jag outfit with a coach that resigned a couple of weeks ago after getting punked 52-0 by previously winless Georgia Southern. A late-year bye plus travel for a team that is 5-12 L17 as a road dog, USA is probably wondering what it's doing here. This is senior night and the Aggies are playing to get to .500 and their first bowl since 1960. New Mexico State 38-14.
Jeff Allen is heating up in football at just the right time, 7-3 in college football and 4-1 in the NFL over Turkey shoot weekend. World Champion Jeff Allen is a 30+ year industry icon and a documented proven winner since the late 80s.