Alex Smart
Dec 10 '17, 4:05 PM in 3d
NFL | Jets vs Broncos
Play on: Jets -1 -110 at 5Dimes
Denver, which has lost eight in a row after a 3-1 start enters into this game in a shambles. HC Vance Joseph's first year as head coach hasn't gone as planned, and the entire team looks to be on the verge of mutiny. Meanwhile, the Jets behind veteran quarterback Josh McCown are doing well in what was supposed to be a rebuilding season. The experienced QB has 18 touchdown passes and only eight interceptions while playing every snap this season. Of the Jets' seven losses the jets have suffered during this campaign, only one has been by double digits, and they've had a fourth-quarter lead in three others and are a very under rated squad. I'm betting the NFL offensive player of the week (McCown) and a cohesive blue collar group will once again be the catalyst behind a Jets victory here today.
DENVER is 2-9 ATS L/11 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season.DENVER is 3-12 ATS L/15 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 yards/play or more in the second half of the season over the L/few seasons.DENVER is 0-8 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season and have failed to cover 8 straight games.
NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 9-34 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 79% for bettors.
Play on the NY Jets to cover
Marc Lawrence
Dec 10 '17, 1:00 PM in 2d
NFL | Packers vs Browns
Play on: Browns +3½ -105 at Bovada
Play - Cleveland Browns (Game 118).
Edges - Browns: 10-2 ATS home versus non-conference foes in the first of consecutive home games… Packers: 2-9 ATS versus sub .500 AFC foes, as well as 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS against sub .444 AFC North opponents… With that look for the Packers to slip to 1-5 ATS in their last six tries as road chalk here today. We recommend a 1* play on Cleveland. Thank you and good luck as always.
Art Aronson
Dec 10 '17, 4:05 PM in 3d
NFL | Titans vs Cardinals
Play on: Titans -3 -105 at BMaker
1* Free Play Tennessee Titans.
We had a play on Tennessee last week and it would get the job done in its 24-13 victory over Houston. The Titans are dead-locked with the Jaguars for the AFC South lead and face a tough two game road trip in the Pacific Northwest, facing the Cardinals this week and then at San Francisco. Note though that the Titans have excelled in this spot for bettors, going 6-3 ATS in their last nine non-conference games and and 2-1 ATS in their last three as a road favorite of three points or less. Conversely, this is a spot in which Arizona has struggled, going just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog and only 4-14 ATS in its last 18 against teams with winning records. After last week’s 32-16 setback to division rival LA, we think the home side comes in “hung over” from that big disappointment. Consider laying the points on the red hot Titans!
Carlo Campanella
Dec 10 '17, 1:00 PM in 2d
NFL | Packers vs Browns
Play on: Packers -3 -120 at 5Dimes
The Browns are 0-12 and kust fired their GM, Sashi Brown, this week. This is a team thats still very far from rebuilding and you have to think there's NO incentive for them to win this game as it would be much better to give the new GM the 1st overall pick in this Aprils draft. Toss in the fact that the Browns have lost ALL 12 games to this point with ALL 12 losses coming by 3 points or more, which is Sunday's point spread- with 8 of the 12 losses have all been by 9 points or more! The Packers are only -3 point road chalk even knowing that Sunday's weather in Cleveland will be 25 degrees with high winds and cloudy. That benefits a Packer's crew depending more on their running game since starting QB Hundley in place of star QB Rogers. No reason why Green Bay should only be favored by a Fieldgoal against a winless team as they're 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four without Rogers, including a 26-20 victory last weekend over Tampa Bay- both losses came against Playoff-caliber teams, the Steelers and Ravens.
10* FREE Play On Green Bay Packers
Pro Computer Gambler
Dec 10 '17, 1:00 PM in 2d
NFL | Vikings vs Panthers
Play on: Panthers +3 -120 at Bovada
KEY NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: Since 2004,teams playing their second straight road game or more are, on the blind, 509-411-20 (55.3% ATS). By simply playing a lot on the road (that's it, nothing else), it seems that teams, Automatically get Under-valued. - Take the Colts, Redskins, Vikings (so tread lightly on this free pick), Eagles, Eagles, and 49ers
FREE KEY SYSTEM: Teams are 55-38-1 ATS since 2002 after a game where the longest rush allowed in the previous game was 72 yards or more. (20171210, 'Panthers'), (20171210, 'Texans')
The Panthers are 11-4 ATS (7.20 ppg) since Dec 07, 2014 as a dog
Dennis Macklin
Dec 10 '17, 1:00 PM in 2d
NFL | Cowboys vs Giants
Play on: OVER 41½ -105
DMack's Free Play for Sunday, December 10, 2017, is on the Cowboys/Giants Over
McAdoo and Reece are gone and Eli is back but that doesn't affect the product the Giants put on the field which at this point is pretty poor. At 6-6, the Cowboys are on a respirator for the playoffs and have the toughest schedule down the stretch of any of the peripheral teams. Sean Lee is back to anchor the defense and a win here and at Oakland next week would put Dallas as 8-6 with a home game vs. Seattle and at Philly to finish the season. Zeke is reliable in the Christmas EVE game against Seattle. Regardless, the Cowboys need help and lot of it. Pokes here have had extra time and face Giant offense that turns the ball over regardless of who is quarterbacking and is just 10-41 on third down the last three games. Big Blue defense is worn down and tired and has just been on the field too long. Giants won in Week One 19-3 but that was with just 16 points in four visits to the red zone. They'll hit paydirt several time here. Putting the Cowboys on 30+ and will count on Eli getting 10+ to put us over the total.
Teddy Covers
Dec 10 '17, 1:00 PM in 1d
NFL | Raiders vs Chiefs
Play on: OVER 48½ -115
Recommendation: Take Oakland – Kansas City OVER 48.5 (#113-114):
Teddy is coming off yet another winning NFL Report in Week 13. He enters this weekend riding a 74% All Sports Run to open the month of December. And Teddy is SCORCHING HOT (86%) in College Hoops! Don’t miss a single ‘right side’ cash all weekend long!
The first meeting between these two teams was a legitimate shootout, a 31-30 Raiders victory that flew Over the total by two touchdowns. Even before the late penalty shenanigans that allowed Oakland to steal the game with an untimed down on their final play, the Over was never in doubt. The two teams combined to gain a full 7.0 yards per play, and the two defenses generated a grand total of one sack and zero turnovers in 133 total snaps.
We can expect both defenses to struggle getting stops in the rematch as well. Based on Football Outsiders advanced metrics, the Raiders defense ranks #32 in the NFL; the Chiefs #30, with both teams well below league average against the run and the pass.
KC’s defense is a sieve right now, coming off a truly dismal showing against the Jets last week – zero sacks, zero turnovers forced in 85 snaps. They allowed 38 points, 30 first downs and total 488 yards, all season highs. In fact, Bob Sutton’s stop unit has only forced one turnover in their last four games combined, not exactly a defense loaded with playmakers right now. This week, KC won’t have pro bowl cornerback Marcus Peters (suspended), offsetting the probable absence of Raiders WR Amari Cooper (ankle). Even with Darrelle Revis in the mix, this is NOT a good pass defense right now, bad news against Derek Carr and company.
And even without Amari Cooper, the Raiders offense will get a boost with the return of Michael Crabtree from his one game suspension. Offensive coordinator Todd Downing: “It's great having him back out at practice. He brings an energy and brings a personality that kind of gets guys going a little bit and makes it fun to be out there. It's certainly awesome to have his talent back.”
The Raiders defense is every bit as bad, a squad with a grand total of ONE interception all season, and even that was lucky – Navarro Bowman made the pick while laying on the ground in the end zone; the ball tipped right to him. And that pick came against Paxton Lynch, so they have zero INT’s against anything resembling a decent quarterback this season, remarkable for a Week 14 matchup. Both teams rank in the bottom quartile of the NFL in sack percentage, which means that both Derek Carr and Alex Smith should have some clean pockets to throw from. On a beautiful sunny December afternoon at Arrowhead, we should expect a Shootout. Take the Over.
Bobby Conn
Dec 10 '17, 1:00 PM in 1d
NFL | 49ers vs Texans
Play on: OVER 44½ -115
1* Free Play on 49ers/Texans over 44½ -115
Mike Lundin
Dec 10 '17, 4:05 PM in 1d
NFL | Redskins vs Chargers
Play on: OVER 46½ -108
#NFL FREE PICK FROM MIKE LUNDIN
The Washington Redskins will visit the L.A. Chargers at StubHub Center Sunday afternoon, and I think we'll see a high-scoring affair. The Redskins took a 38-14 loss at Dallas last Thursday and need a win here to keep their almost non-existent playoff hopes alive. Over is 14-3 in Redskins last 17 games following a straight up loss and 6-1 in their last seven games in December. I expect a big game for rookie running back Samaje Perine against one of the worst run defenses in the league.
The Chargers have allowed just a total of 16 points through their last two games, but first they played a Cowboys team still adjusting to the loss of Zeke Elliot and most recently the Browns.
Both Kirk Cousins and Philipp Rivers are solid quarterbacks more than capable of airing it out.
My free pick is on WAS @ LAC to go over the total.
Larry Ness
Dec 10 '17, 8:30 PM in 1d
NFL | Ravens vs Steelers
Play on: Ravens +4½ -110 at Bovada
My 1* Free Play is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:30 EST).
The 7-5 Baltimore Ravens are in Pittsburgh to take on the 10-2 Steelers and for a number of different reasons, I think this on favors the visitors.
Baltimore has won three straight. Pittsburgh enters off a come-from-behind 23-20 win over Cincinnati on Monday night. Note that this is a revenge game for the Ravens after they fell 26-9 to the Steelers in the first meeting back on October 1st.
Baltimore enters off an impressive 44-20 destruction of Detroit, as QB Joe Flacco was 23 of 36 for 269 yards, two TD’s and zero INT’s.
Steelers’ veteran QB Ben Roethlisberger was 24 of 40 for 290 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Pittsburgh’s defense took a hit though with an inury to LB Ryan Shazier, who has 89 tackles and three INT’s this season.
I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is already 3-1 ATS on the road this year and 2-1 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Pittsburgh is just 2-4 ATS this season after two or more consecutive SU victories.
While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing the points in this one.
Good luck…Larry
Doug Upstone
Dec 10 '17, 1:00 PM in 1d
NFL | Packers vs Browns
Play on: UNDER 40 -110
Green Bay for the most part is struggling to score and we know Cleveland is. In this situation, Play Under on road teams against the total like the Packers with +/- 3 PPG differential, against a team with -8 to -10 PPG differential, after 8 or more games. In the last nine years, this situation is sensational 23-3!
Brandon Lee
Dec 10 '17, 4:05 PM in 1d
NFL | Jets vs Broncos
Play on: Broncos +1½ -110 at Bovada
10* FREE NFL PICK (Broncos +1.5)
I know the Broncos have lost 9 straight and fresh off a blowout loss at Miami, but I just don’t trust New York on the road. The Jets are just 1-4 SU away from home this season and the lone win was at Cleveland by a mere 3-points. A game they had no business winning, as the Browns outgained them by more than 200 yards.
I also think the perception here is that the Broncos have thrown in the towel on this season. It certainly looks that way after their ugly showing against the Dolphins, but I think there’s still some fight left in this team. No professional team likes to get embarrassed and more times than not a team will come back off a bad loss with a big time effort. I think we get that here from Denver on their home field.
Denver’s lackluster offense has been a big reason for their struggles this season, as there’s still a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball. I think this is a game where the Broncos can get something going on the offensive side of the ball.
Kansas City’s offense couldn’t have looked much worse going into last week’s game against the Jets and they exploded for 31 points and nearly 500 yards of offense, with Alex Smith throwing for 366 yards and 4 scores. I look for Trevor Siemian to bounce back from a poor game against the Dolphins with one of his better performances and if the offense can get going, the defense should be able to feed off that.
Keep in mind this is still an elite Denver defense, that comes in ranked 5th in the NFL against the run (92 ypg) and 4th against the pass (207 ypg). Kansas City’s struggling defense made the Jets offense look like an offensive juggernaut last week. That simply isn’t going to be the case this week.
Against the Chiefs, New York had just under 43 minutes in time of possession with 30 first downs. That’s not something they have been able to replicate and the Jets are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 after a game where they had more than 34 minutes in time of possession and 24 or more first downs. New York is also just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games after giving up 25 or more points in 2 straight games. Give me the Broncos +1.5!
Totals Guru
Dec 10 '17, 1:00 PM in 4h
NFL | 49ers vs Texans
Play on: OVER 45 -116
Free Total Annihilator On 49ers vs Texans over 45 -116
Scott Rickenbach
Dec 10 '17, 4:05 PM in 7h
NFL | Jets vs Broncos
Play on: Broncos +1½ -115 at Bovada
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NFL Sunday Free Pick Denver Broncos (+) vs New York Jets @ 4:05 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Broncos ATS streak of futility has reached 8 straight games. However, this is Denver's only home game in a span of 5 weeks and I expect them to make the most of it. Turnovers have played a major role in their struggles of late but if you look at the statistics, the Broncos truly have put up an impressive margin in yardage at home despite what their record shows. Denver is averaging 348 yards per game at home while allowing just 270 yards per game in the Mile High city. Now the Broncos host a Jets team that is off of an upset win versus the Chiefs last week. Certainly New York deserves some credit for coming up with that win (although Kansas City is slumping big-time) but lets not forget that, prior to that game, the Jets had lost 5 of their 6 prior games. Also, NY has lost 4 of their 5 road games this season with their lone win coming against a Browns team that hasn't won a game all season! Free Pick on DENVER
Mike Williams
Dec 10 '17, 4:05 PM in 7h
NFL | Titans vs Cardinals
Play on: Cardinals +3 -125 at Bovada
1* on Cardinals +3 -125