HUNTER PRICE
1* Free Pick on Bills +11½ -110
Jack Brayman
Let's head to the Hawaii Bowl for my free play, as I'm taking Fresno State over Houston. Love the underdog in this spot, as the Bulldogs will become the second team in FBS history to go from double-digit losses in one season to double-digit wins in the next.
I know all about Houston running back Duke Catalon, who has led the Cougars in rushing in each of the past two seasons, and that he comes into this one averaging 4.5 yards per carry while scoring eight touchdowns in 2017, but this Bulldogs defense ranks second in the Mountain West in run defense (116.6 yards per game) and ninth nationally in scoring defense (17.2 points per game).
This is a defense that limited Rashad Penny to 69 yards on 15 carries and defeated San Diego State 27-3 - in San Diego - on Oct. 21.
The Cougars, who are 11-13-1 in 25 previous bowl trips, don't realize the defense they're up against, and I'm going to side with the better stop unit.
Fresno State, which is 10-6 against current teams in the American Athletic Conference, will aim for the outright win today.
4* FRESNO STATE
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Sunday is on the Chicago Bears over the Cleveland Browns. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bears record a shutout tonight.
The Browns have been the worst team I've seen since 2000. And I don't mean this year, I'm talking 2000 through this year, overall, this is just a terrible franchise. Cleveland is the first team in history to open consecutive seasons 0-14, and today it rolls into Chicago, where the Bears have the eighth-best defense in the NFL.
That won't bode well against Browns rookie QB DeShone Kizer, who leads the league with 19 interceptions. Coach Hue Jackson hinted a quarterback switch this week, but we saw what happened the last time he did it. Trust me, nothing will work, because this is a horrendous football team.
So even though Chicago has lost six of seven, this is the perfect game for it to get well.
Chicago rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky set career highs with 31 completions, 46 attempts and 314 yards passing last week, and could top any one of those numbers against the 21st-ranked pass defense.
All Bears today, as they roll to a double-digit win, and possible score the shutout.
5* BEARS
Chris Jordan
My free play takes us to the Bay Area, where I am playing the San Francisco 49ers plus the points against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The dog carries a live price in this one, despite the road favorite being the better team.
Forget for a moment that Jacksonville has lost eight straight in the Pacific Time Zone by an average of 20.9 points, let's talk about what the revitalized 49ers have done of late.
Though the Jaguars are bringing in the league' top rushing game, San Francisco has held four straight opponents to less than 100 yards rushing for the first time since 2013. The 49ers have won three in a row behind that stifling defense, after winning in Chicago, in Houston and versus Tennessee.
Three threatening opponents? Not so much. But it's progress, from a team has been sparked by late-season acquisition Jimmy Garoppolo, who passed for 381 yards last week to become the first 49ers quarterback with back-to-back 300-yard games since Jeff Garcia did it three straight times in 2000.
Garoppolo has made quite the statement, as San Francisco has had just one possession on which it failed to record a first down, while putting together 18 scoring drives - second in the league to Jacksonville (19) over that span - since he took over as starter in Week 13.
Garoppolo has breathed life into a team that had one win in its first 11, and a franchise that certainly believes it has landed its quarterback of the future.
So while the Jaguars can clinch their first division title since 1999 with a win, San Francisco is simply looking forward to building momentum for the offseason that will be about building around Garoppolo.
Take the dog here, as it will be a huge test, but one I think is worth investing in. Frisco keeps it close.
3* 49ERS
Northcoast
Early Bird - Arizona -4.5
Economy Club - Jets +6.5
NFL Total - Cleveland under. 38