Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, December 31, 2017

BOBBY CONN
NFL | Dec 31, 2017
Jaguars vs. Titans
1* Free Play on Jaguars +3 -125

STEPHEN NOVER
NFL | Dec 31, 2017
Packers vs. Lions
OVER 43

Quick quiz time. Name the NFL quarterback who has thrown seven touchdowns with no interceptions during his last three road games? You might be surprised to know that quarterback is Brett Hundley. He's played far better on the road than at Lambeau Field. I envision the Packers and Lions, with Matthew Stafford having a big season, concluding their disappointing seasons with a shootout. It's a fast track inside a dome. Both teams are below average defensively with neither being able to pressure the quarterback very well. Green Bay's secondary is just about decimated. Clay Matthews and and Nick Perry have nearly half of the Packers' sacks. Perry is out and Matthews is questionable. Stafford should have no problem burning the Packers with Marvin Jones, Golden Tate and tight end Eric Ebron, who has come on to catch 20 passes and score two touchdowns during his last three games. Jim Caldwell will be trying to save his job. He won't be looking at youngsters. The Lions can't run so Stafford will be passing all day. The Packers should be able to produce their share of points against a Detroit defense that ranks 25th in scoring defense and 27th in yards allowed. Washed-up Jordy Nelson has been the Packers' worst receiver. He's injured and won't play. Hundley will be passing a lot to youngsters Geronimo Allison, Michael Clark and Trevor Davis. He's familiar with these guys from practice and preseason. Allison and Clark have a lot of potential. This translates to a loose, no-holds, bombs-away type of game.

ART ARONSON

This is a 1* Free Play on the Arizona Cardinals.

Seattle stunned Dallas 21-12 last week to keep its playoff hopes alive. The Cards though will be looking to play spoiler and to avenge a 22-16 home loss to the Hawks back in early November. Arizona looked pretty good in last week’s 23-0 win over the Giants and with nothing to lose, we think the visitors can keep this one closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Note that Arizona is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Seattle is just 2-5 ATS at home this year and only 3-4 ATS when playing the role of favorite. Outright straight up, up-set victory? Doubtful. But the situation and the numbers point to a competitive affair. Consider a play on ARIZONA in this matchup.

AAA Sports

JIMMY BOYD

Free Pick on Texans +

I know it's been ugly for Houston the last couple of weeks. The Texans lost 45-7 at Jacksonville in Week 15 and then followed it up with a 34-6 loss at home to the Steelers last week. I think has the Texans showing some great value here against a Colts team that shouldn't be laying more than a field goal against any team, even the Browns. I expect Houston come out with a lot of emotion here to finish the season the right way. They also will be out for revenge from an earlier loss at home to the Colts.

As bad as the offense has been for Houston since Watson went down with a season-ending injury, this Colts defense is one that T.J. Yates can exploit. Indianapolis ranks 30th in the NFL against the pass, giving up 254.3 ypg. They aren't much better at stopping the run, as they come in 27th against the run, giving up 122.8 ypg.

You also have to factor in how poorly this Colts offense is playing down the stretch. Indy has scored 20 or fewer points in each of their last 17 games and are only averaging 12.4 ppg over their last 5. I don't think it's asking a lot for Houston to score around 14-17 points and if they come anywhere close to that they not only will have a good shot at covering, but winning this game outright.

Texans are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring 14 or fewer points in each of their previous two games. At the same time, the Colts are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games when they come in having scored 17 or fewer points in each of their previous three games. Take Houston!

JESSE SCHULE
NFL | Dec 31, 2017
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
Cardinals+10 -125

After the Seattle Seahawks upset the Cowboys in Dallas last week, safety Earl Thomas openly campaigned for Dallas to sign him in the off-season. This is just the latest in a string of events that indicate that the locker room is in disarray in the Emerald City. I bet against Seattle last week, and here is what I said prior to the game: "The Seahawks look like a team that has really started to unravel. Injuries have taken their toll, with star defenders Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor done for the season. Last week's home game against the Rams was a complete disaster, allowing Todd Gurley to run wild (152 yards and three TDs). That's a bad sign ahead of a road game at Dallas, facing the league's most dominant running back running behind the best offensive line in the NFL. This is a must win for the Cowboys, and Dak Prescott has kept playoff hopes alive in the absence of Ezekiel Elliott. The Seahawks offensive line has really struggled all year, but they were brutal last week. Russell Wilson was sacked seven times for a loss of 71 yards. Wilson completed just 14-of-30 passes for 142 yards and a TD. He will have to keep an eye on DE DeMarcus Lawrence, who has 13.5 sacks this season (3rd in the NFL). Aside from the injuries, Seattle seems to have a toxic atmosphere brewing in the locker room." I may have lost my bet, but I wasn't wrong. Seattle gained a total of just 136 yards on offense, and their win was a result of poor play by Dak Prescott, and abysmal coaching by Jason Garrett. They opened as a 7-point favorite in their season finale at home versus Arizona, and all the money is pouring in on Seattle. I can't see laying double digits on a team that is in such a sad state offensively, especially given the history between these two teams. Arizona has won three of it's last four at Seattle, and the road team has covered the spread in the last six meetings between the two teams.

Take ARI.

GL,

TEDDY COVERS

Take New England (#314)

Teddy enters the weekend riding a SMOKIN’ 43-22 (66%) run Across All Sports since the beginning of December. He's 25-11 (69%) in bowl season since 2015, including a 5-0 run this week! He's on a 20-8 (71%) college hoops heater since Thanksgiving. And his NFL is at 59% for the full season! Ride the hot hand & cash in all weekend long!

Incredibly, the New England Patriots are STILL an undervalued commodity at this stage of the campaign and at this stage of the franchise trajectory. Sure, the Pats won their fifth Super Bowl title in the Brady/Belichick era last February. Sure, the Pats are on pace to snare another #1 seed in the AFC with a victory here — this is most assuredly NOT a meaningless game for the home favorite. If they lose, they probably head to Pittsburgh for the AFC Championship Game, and I’m SURE that’s motivation enough. And yet the markets have been consistently behind New England’s capabilities all season, just like they’ve been in every recent season. The Patriots went 13-3 ATS last year and covered the spread in all three of their playoff wins as well. This year, following their 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS start, guess what — the Pats have been the best pointspread team in football. They’re 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine ballgames, winning by margins of 17 or more on six different occasions. How is this possible? Simple — wiseguys control the betting marketplace and wiseguys aren’t betting New England. Ever. The Patriots statistical profile is mediocre, in large part due to some dicey yards per play numbers on defense. The Pats have allowed 5.8 yards per play this year, tied for #31 in the NFL defensively. Obviously, if you’ve watched the Patriots, you know that this isn’t the #31 defense in the NFL, not even close. In fact, we are talking about a team that has allowed 17 points or less in nine of their last eleven games — a ‘bet-on’ stop unit, not a ‘bet-against’ one. But the markets react to statistics, and the stats continue to mislead the sharps — you know, the same guys who are betting ON the Browns every week because of Cleveland’s attractive stats…… Establishing that New England is an UNDER-valued commodity is a meaningful exercise, but Week 17 is not about stats — it’s about what teams are going to show up. For New England, we’ve got a pretty extensive Week 17 track record that shows the Pats go all out to win this week, just like any other week. Look no further than last year when they won their ‘meaningless’ Week 17 game by three touchdowns. In fact, in their home finale, the Pats have won eight of their last nine by 14 points or more; seven of the nine by 17 points or more. This is a value laden team in a ‘bet-on’ spot. New England’s long term track record against bottom tier QB’s is pretty darn impressive — Belichick eats weak QB’s for breakfast. Bryce Petty is, most assuredly, a bottom tier QB: 47% completions, 4.4 yards per pass attempt. The Jets ran the ball for 197 yards last week, better than 6.5 yards per carry. They produced seven points off that effort, at home. In the cold of Foxboro, with all the pressure off Todd Bowles, after fighting the good fight all year the Jets are primed for an ugly blowout. Take the Patriots.

PRO COMPUTER GAMBLER
NFL | Dec 31, 2017
Cowboys vs. Eagles
Eagles+3 -120

FREE NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: Since 1995, 1 point favs, pick'ems or underdogs that just had 2 or fewer turnovers last game are 57-28-3 67.1% ATS against a team off of a game with a 3 point or worse turnover margin (regular season).

LARRY NESS

My 1* Free Play is on the LA Chargers (4:25 EST).

LA needs to win this game and have Tennessee lose in its finale in order to make the playoffs. The only thing that the Chargers can control is of course their own performance on the field of play today.

The Raiders come to town looking to play spoiler, however I believe Oakland will simply go through the motions after another loss last weekend, a 19-10 setback at Philadelphia on Christmas Day. QB Derek Carr was an unremarkable 15 of 29 for 140 yards, one TD and two picks. Marshawn Lynch was decent, finishing with 95 yards on 25 carries.

The Chargers fought tooth and nail last weekend and hung on for the crucial 14-7 victory over the Jets to keep their playoff hopes alive.

The Bolts come in on fire, they’ve won five of their last six, led by QB Philip Rivers, who had 290 yards and a TD last Sunday. Rivers enters the final game of the regular season with an elite 25/10 TD/INT.

I’ll point out as well that Oakland is just 2-3 ATS this year against teams with winning records, while LA is 3-1 ATS this season against clubs with losing records.

As mentioned off the top, I believe the Raiders are going to roll over and I expect Rivers to put on a clinic in front of the home town crowd. The conditions seem right for a blowout. Consider laying the points in this matchup.

Good luck…Larry

KEVIN THOMAS
NFL | Dec 31, 2017
Cowboys vs. Eagles
UNDER 40

The Eagles(13-2) have nothing to play for in this one, except getting Nick Foles in sink for a series and then to the bench. Cowboys(8-7) would love to finish on the positive but owner Jerry Jones hinted he would like to see the younger guys getting work to see their skill sets for next season. Going to be in the teens with possible snow. Lock in the under
__________________

CHIP CHIRIMBES

Washington at New York 1:00 ET

Giants (+) over Redskins

Believe me when I say this selection has nothing to do with sentiment. Being a former New Yorker one might think I have a bias toward my home teams but 'I' would never be able to survive 40-years in this business if I were. Locals are so down on the Giants they really don't care if Eli plays or not and actually are rooting against the Giants to improve their chances of grabbing a top quarterback in the 2018 draft. They had to bounce another 'Rotten Apple' suspending their seventh player this season. When, everyone and I mean everybody is so down on you something kicks in that puts you in survival mode. Take NEW YORK!

Kyle Compeau

COLTS

Andrew Jett

BILLS

Chris Ruffolo

JAGUARS

Randy Chambers

STEELERS