Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, December 3, 2017
12/03 10:00 AM PT / 1:00 PM PT
NFL (359) DENVER BRONCOS VS (360) MIAMI DOLPHINS
Take: OVER
Reason: Both of these teams have had problems scoring points. Yet, when we take a closer look the over is actually in play here. First, the Dolphins have gone over in their last six games and are 8-2 O/U in their last 10 home games. When the Dolphins play a team with a losing road record they are 16-5 O/U their last 21. The Broncos will go back QB Trevor Siemian this week. Siemian looked good last ween when he came in for injured Paxton Lynch. Siemian came into the game with the Broncos down 21-0 and led them to two TD's. I look for two teams like this to put up some points. We know the Dolphins defense is horrible, yet with Cutler at QB they can score. Play the OVER even though on the surface this would appear to be an under. Play OVER.
San Francisco (+3) at CHICAGO
By Tommy Brunson
Comp play winner for Sunday is the 1-10 San Francisco 49ers plus the points as they give newly-acquired Jimmy Garaopolo his first start of the season against the 3-8 Chicago Bears.
While the 49ers haven't been able to win outright this season, they usually do not go out on the field and lay down. Two weeks ago they picked up their only outright win of the season, and last week they did battle Seattle down to the end before bowing straight up and against the spread, 24-13. Perhaps they get a spark today going with Garappolo, but more so going against a 3-8 team that will be in the favored role for only the second time all season long.
Chicago's first try in the favored role was an outright home loss to the Green Bay Packers, and with rookie Mitchell Trubisky still very much a work in progress, I don't think the Bears have any business being listed as the favorite - even against a 1-10 team!
Go ahead and take the points with the Niners as Garoppolo gives this team something to feel good about today in the Windy City.
3* SAN FRANCISCO
Minnesota at ATLANTA (47un, -110)
By Jeff Benton
50 Dime NFC South Total of the Year is on line.
Your Week 13 Carolina-New Orleans Over/Under winner.
Book it, Benton bangs home a winner!
A pair of teams that have been finding the end-zone on a regular basis will meet - and will go Over the total - today at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Minnesota has rattled off 24-points or better in 4 of their last 5 games, and 4 of those 5 games have also managed to land Over the total.
Atlanta has scored 25-points or more in 4 of their last 5 games, with their last pair and 3 of their last 5 games landing Over the posted price.
Hard to imagine this one ending up 10-7 when the receiving corps on both teams have been able to secure passes from Keenum and Ryan with regularity. Also consider that the Falcons secondary is now riddled with injured bodies, and the career year of Case Keenum will indeed continue for the Purple and Gold.
Matt Ryan will do his best to be right there with Case, and Julio Jones did go off last week against Tampa Bay, and while the Minnesota defense will be a tougher test, look for the points to add up.
Vikes-Falcons Over.
3* MINNESOTA-ATLANTA OVER
Tampa Bay at GREEN BAY (-2)
By Jack Brayman
My free play is on the Green Bay Packers over the battered Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
While Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston is expected to start after missing three games with a shoulder injury, the Bucs just put two starting offensive linemen on injured reserve and could be without starting running back Doug Martin because of a concussion.
It's one big mess, and now the Buccaneers have to travel to play a team hungry for a win, looking to make a statement.
The Packers are 1-5 since Aaron Rodgers got hurt at Minnesota on Oct. 15. Backup Brett Hundley has shown progress, and could very well have his best day today.
I can't believe I'm saying this, but a win could keep the Packers relevant in the playoff talk.
Take the Pack today, as it wins big.
3* PACKERS
Cleveland at L.A. CHARGERS (44)
By Eric Schroeder
My free winner? Take the Over in the San Diego-Cleveland game.
If there is one game Cleveland is geared up for, it's this one. After an 0-14 start last season, the Browns got their one victory of the season against the Bolts. They got to L.A. a day early this trip, they're used to the time zone and the offense will move the chains.
To be quite honest, this could be a shootout, because the one strength the Browns have is their defense. I don't think it is stronger than the Chargers' offense, so both have to play uptempo.
L.A. quarterback Philip Rivers was the AFC's top offensive player of last week after passing for 434 yards and three TDs at Dallas. His top target, receiver Keenan Allen, has been impossible to cover the last two games, hauling in 23 receptions for 331 yards and three TDs.
It sounds crazy, but I think the Browns offense comes to play, and I don't think the Chargers will do much to stop them, with the confidence Rivers and company will be firing at free will.
Play this one high.
2* OVER Browns/Chargers
Seton Hall at LOUISVILLE (143'un, -110)
By Joey Juice
These teams are both ranked, and both off to solid starts. While the Seton Hall offense has been potent so far this season, they are taking on an extremely tough Louisville defense that has looked extremely strong, even in their loss to Purdue last week. The problem for the Cardinals thusfar is they have been mediocre at best on the offensive side of the court.
Seton Hall can play some defense as well, just look at their numbers, they've allowed just 66.7 points per game. More importantly, Seton Hall has gone under in five of their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. They have also gone Under in 7 of their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Louisville has gone Under in 20 of their last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.
The Under is 5-1 the last six games in this series. That Trend continues, bet the under in this one.
2* SETON HALL-LOUISVILLE UNDER
Brad Diamond
Dec 03 '17, 9:00 PM in 12h
NCAA-B | Detroit vs UCLA
Play on: UCLA -21 -110 at 5Dimes
UCLA (740) over Detroit @ 9:00 Eastern
Hard to believe Detroit is traveling to Pauley, no less on a Sunday night? The Titans just lost to "Wayne" and were BLOWN OUT by Seattle @ Belmont. The Bruins own the size differential and the quality backcourt to control the tempo against this inconsistent unit. Detroit shows 0-4 ATS versus the Pac-12 L4 times out. Bruins youth should do well here in their return home. Good Luck.
John Martin
Dec 03 '17, 4:25 PM in 7h
NFL | Giants vs Raiders
Play on: Raiders -7½ -116 at betonline
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Oakland Raiders -7.5
The Oakland Raiders have won three of their last five to get to 5-6 on the season. Their outlook is a bright one right now as they are just one game back of the reeling Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West, and they own the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Giants have clearly waved the white flag. They are starting Geno Smith and benching Eli Manning this week, and that was not a popular decision among players on the team and the media. The Giants are more concerned about getting a high draft pick now likely to select their quarterback of the future. I don’t expect them to offer much resistance against the motivated Raiders this week. The Raiders are actually 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. New York is 0-6 ATS after allowing 3 points or fewer in the first half of last game over the last two seasons. Give me the Raiders.
Brandon Lee
Dec 03 '17, 4:25 PM in 7h
NFL | Rams vs Cardinals
Play on: Rams -7 +106 at betonline
10* FREE NFL PICK (Rams -7)
Laying 7-points on the road typically isn’t something you want to do in division games, but I just think there’s a big enough of a gap here in terms of talent that it’s worth a shot. Los Angeles is one of the best teams in the league right now and show no signs of slowing down. Arizona on the hand has been decimated by injuries and just playing for pride at this point.
I think the first meeting between these two teams really says a lot about just how big a game there is between these two teams. The Rams won on a neutral field 33-0. Outgaining the Cardinals by 229 yards and had 28 first downs to Arizona’s 10. Keep in mind Carson Palmer, who suffered a season ending injury in the contest, started for Arizona. While he was lost in the 2nd quarter, it wouldn’t have mattered in the outcome. The Cardinals are now starting Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. Keep in mind they lost their best offensive player early on in running back David Johnson. They are also down one of their top wide outs in John Brown, as well as two starters on the offensive line.
What about Arizona’s big win at home over the Jaguars last week? First, I don’t think Jacksonville is as good as people think. They are simply a good team in a really bad division and conference that has two elite teams. The biggest thing is that was a great matchup for the Cardinals. One thing Arizona has done well defensively this year is stop the run. They rank 10th in the NFL giving up just 100 ypg and are only allowing 3.7 yards/carry. If Jacksonville can’t run the ball, they are as incompetent offensively as they come.
Keep in mind this is a defense that gave up 31 points and nearly 400 yards of offense the previous week to Tom Savage and the Texans. I think the Rams are going to have their way here. If they load the box, Jared Goff is going to shred them through the air and if they play the pass, Todd Gurley will run all over them. They couldn’t stop either in the first meeting, as Goff threw for 235 yards and Gurley rushed for 106. Give me the Rams -7!
Doug Upstone
Dec 03 '17, 8:30 PM in 11h
NFL | Eagles vs Seahawks
Play on: OVER 46½ -110
Philadelphia has taken over as the highest-scoring club in the NFL at 31.9 PPG and they will face a Seattle secondary that has been weakened by injuries. On Sunday night, not saying the Eagles get their average, but they should come fairly close and the Seahawks offense, led by Russell Wilson, comes in 10th in scoring at 24.2 PPG. With the total having dipped from 48 to 47, one cannot ignore Seattle is 16-2 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, and drilling down deeper, is 6-0 OVER as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.
Larry Ness
Dec 03 '17, 4:25 PM in 7h
NFL | Giants vs Raiders
Play on: Raiders -8½ -105 at betonline
1* Free Play Oakland Raiders (4:25 EST).
The Giants are terrible and they’ve made a move by benching QB Eli Manning and going with backup Gino Smith under center instead.
The Raiders have won three of their last five and I believe they’ll easily pull away down the stretch for the comfortable SU/ATS win/cover.
After beating the Chiefs 12-9 in their lone victory of the year, the Giants made an immediate return to mediocrity in Thanksgiving’s 20-10 loss to the Redskins. In all New York posted just 170 yards of offense in that one.
The Raiders survived a potential trap with a 21-14 win over Denver last week. Oakland looked particularly impressive on the defensive side, holding the Broncos to just 59 rushing yards. QB Derek Carr was 18 of 24 for 253 yards and two TD’s.
I’ll point out that the Giants just 2-4 ATS this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Oakland is 2-1 ATS in its last three as a home fav in the 7.5 to ten points range.
I think Carr puts on a show this afternoon. Consider laying the points on the home side in this one.
Good luck…Larry
Totals Guru
Dec 03 '17, 4:05 PM in 7h
NFL | Browns vs Chargers
Play on: OVER 44 -115
Free Total Annihilator On Browns vs Chargers over 44 -115
Scott Spreitzer
Dec 03 '17, 1:00 PM in 4h
NFL | Bucs vs Packers
Play on: Packers -2½ -110 at GTBets
I'm backing the Packers minus the points on Sunday. Brett Hundley showed improvement in last week's 31-28 loss to Pittsburgh. He connected on 17 of 26 passes with 3 TDs and no INTs. Hundley and the Pack will face a horrible Tampa Bay defense. The Buccs are dead last in the NFL in yards passing allowed per game and total yards allowed. Offensively, whether injured or healthy, Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston has not played well. As reported time and again at PFF, Winston makes poor decisions and has fired several "turnover worthy" passes throughout his young career. He'll line up behind a less than healthy offensive line this week, making life even tougher. The Buccs enter on a 1-6 ATS slide on the road and we'll go against them here. I'm backing the Packers minus the points on Sunday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Jack Jones
Dec 03 '17, 1:00 PM in 4h
NFL | Vikings vs Falcons
Play on: OVER 47 -105
Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Vikings/Falcons OVER 47
I think there’s value with the OVER 47 today in this game between the Minnesota Vikings and Atlanta Falcons played in perfect conditions inside the dome. Oddsmakers haven’t adjusted enough for just how well both offenses are playing right now.
The Falcons are averaging 32 points per game in their last three games coming in, while the Vikings are putting up 31 points per game in their last four contests. The Falcons boast one of the league’s top offenses again this season, ranking 2nd in offensive yards per play (6.1) and 6th in total offense (373.4 yards per play). The Vikings are 8th in yards per play (5.6) and 5th in total offense (375.7).
The perception of the Vikings is that they are just an elite defensive team. While that is true, they are a better offensive team than they are getting credit for, and Case Keenum has been one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league. Keenum and company should score at will on an Atlanta defense that has allowed at least 20 points in nine of their last 10 games overall. And the Vikings haven’t faced many offenses as potent at Matt Ryan and company.
Atlanta is 21-8 to the OVER in all games over the past two seasons. The Falcons are 8-1 to the OVER as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the past two years. Atlanta is 14-3 OVER in dome games over the past two seasons. The Falcons are 7-0 OVER vs. good passing teams averaging at least 235 passing yards per game in the second half of the season over the past two seasons. The OVER is 4-1 in Vikings last five games overall. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
Mike Lundin
Dec 03 '17, 1:00 PM in 4h
NFL | Texans vs Titans
Play on: UNDER 43 -105
#NFL FREE PICK FROM MIKE LUNDIN
The Tennessee Titans enter this clash with the Houston Texans as winners of five of their last six games, the most recent a 20-16 triumph at Indianapolis. I expect another low-scoring contest for the Titans Sunday afternoon.
The Texans took a 23-16 loss at Baltimore Monday night, the third of their last four games to go under the total. They took down the Titans in a 57-14 blowout victory in Week 4, although that was with now injured rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson under center. Backup QB Tom Savage threw three interceptions against the Ravens and he has 12 turnovers in five starts on the season.
We can note that the Titans' QB Marcus Mariota has not been much better with six interceptions in his last two games, and wide receiver Rishard Matthews, who sat out the previous game due to a hamstring injury, is uncertain for Sunday. The Texans are banged up, but their D should still be enough to keep this a relatively close and low-scoring game.
Under is 9-4 in Titans last 13 games in December. Under is 11-4 in Texans last 15 games in December.
My free pick is on HOU @ TEN Under.