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Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, December 3rd, 2017

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(@shazman)
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Bobby Conn
Dec 03 '17, 1:00 PM in 4h
NFL | Chiefs vs Jets
Play on: Chiefs -3 -119 at BMaker

1* Free Play on Chiefs -3 -119

 
Posted : December 3, 2017 8:58 am
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Info Plays
Dec 03 '17, 1:00 PM in 4h
NFL | Bucs vs Packers
Play on: Packers -2½ -110 at BMaker

1* Free Play on Packers -2½ -110

 
Posted : December 3, 2017 8:59 am
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Dave Price
Dec 03 '17, 1:00 PM in 4h
NFL | Bucs vs Packers
Play on: Packers -2½ -110 at 5Dimes

Dave’s Sunday Free Play:

1* on Green Bay Packers -2.5

The Key: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers don’t get a bye week all season because their Week 1 game was cancelled due to weather. They are starting to really show that fatigue. They are just 2-6 in their last 8 games overall with their only two wins coming against the hapless Jets and Dolphins. They lost 20-34 in Atlanta last week and gave up a ridiculous 516 total yards to the Falcons. Brett Hundley led the Packers to 28 points against a very good Steelers defense last week. He should shred this Tampa Bay defense. The Packers have hope right now as Aaron Rodgers can return in a couple weeks and he just practiced for the first time this week since suffering a broken collarbone. They are ready to make another one of their impressive late-season runs as they play Cleveland next week, and if they can win these two games they will be at 7-6 with a chance to run the table with Rodgers. Green Bay is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less. The Bucs are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Packers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 December games. Take Green Bay.

 
Posted : December 3, 2017 8:59 am
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Vic Duke
Dec 03 '17, 4:25 PM in 7h
NFL | Panthers vs Saints
Play on: Panthers +5½ -114 at BMaker

Panthers/Saints 4:25: Saints trashed the Panthers in Week 3 with a 34-13 burial. That was the start of an eight game run that ended last week at Los Angeles. Saints should have trouble sweeping this series; after all, the Panthers' offense is much improved since Week 3 and sport the #2 defense in total yards allowed. With Kuechly on the field, teams have much difficulty running the football. NO's offense is fueled with Kamara and Ingram and limiting them, like the Rams did, can put more pressure on Brees. We'll look for the Panthers to keep creating sacks despite the injuries. Carolina dangerous as a division dog of more than 1 point with revenge at 6-1 ATS. Panthers playing well on the road and we'll take the points.

 
Posted : December 3, 2017 9:00 am
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Marc Lawrence
Dec 03 '17, 1:00 PM in 4h
NFL | Vikings vs Falcons
Play on: Vikings +3 -118 at betonline

Play - Minnesota Vikings (Game 355).

Edges - Vikings: 30-8 ATS in non-division games under head coach Mike Zimmer… Falcons: 1-3 SUATS versus 4.5 or greater foes during December under head coach Dan Quinn… With the Vikings 10-1 In The Stats this season and having lost only one road game (at Pittsburgh) this season, we recommend a 1* play on Minnesota. Thank you and good luck as always.

 
Posted : December 3, 2017 9:00 am
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Teddy Covers
Dec 03 '17, 1:00 PM in 4h
NFL | Patriots vs Bills
Play on: Patriots -8½ -110 at 5Dimes

Take New England (#357)

For the second consecutive season, the New England Patriots are, incredibly, an UNDER-valued commodity in the betting markets. Last year, despite their ‘public’ nature and their Super Bowl winning caliber roster, the wiseguys faded New England (and lost fading New England) week after week. The Pats finished the season with a truly remarkable 15-3-1 ATS record, including an 8-1 ATS mark on the highway.

It’s been more of the same here in 2017. The Patriots statistical profile hasn’t been pretty from Day 1, when New England got slapped around on their home field against Kansas City. Their full, season long numbers show a mediocre ballclub that allows 6.1 yards per play on defense (tied with Tampa for dead last in the NFL), unable to stop the run (4.9 yards per carry allowed, also tied for last in the NFL) and mediocre against the pass.

Those numbers are flat out lying, and that’s what the public sees that the wiseguys are missing. Since Week 5, the Patriots have allowed the fewest points in the NFL – the #1 points allowed defense. Remember, wiseguys are looking at this defense like it’s among the worst in the league. That’s a pretty sharp disparity! It shows why money comes in against the Patriots almost every week. And it shows why that money continues to lose, with New England 100% perfect ATS since mid-October.

The Bills are an easy team to handicap this year when we consider one factor. Buffalo is 6-1 SU, 5-1-1 ATS when they win the turnover battle. They are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS when turnovers were even or the Bills had a negative turnover margin. That’s another VERY sharp dichotomy, which doesn’t bode well for Buffalo in this matchup. Because the Patriots do one thing better than any other team in the NFL – they don’t turn the ball over.

In 2014, the Patriots ranked #1 in the NFL in fewest turnovers committed on offense. In 2015, the Patriots ranked #1 in the NFL in fewest turnovers committed on offense. In 2016, the Patriots ranked #1 in the NFL in fewest turnovers committed on offense. And here we are entering Week 13 of the campaign, and New England is, once again, ranked #1 for the fewest turnovers committed in the NFL. Given the Bills SU and ATS stats above, the Pats ability to avoid turnovers is clearly a problem for the home underdog.

New England won here 41-25 last year, 40-32 the year before and 37-22 the year before; a very one sided series in recent seasons. At 6-5, the Bills have been outyarded, out-first downed and outgained by 0.6 yards per play for the season – they have, quite simply, lived off their turnover margin. But this is one game where the Bills cannot be expected to win the turnover battle; bad news for Bills fans and backers. Take the Patriots.

 
Posted : December 3, 2017 9:01 am
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Mike Williams
Dec 03 '17, 4:25 PM in 7h
NFL | Rams vs Cardinals
Play on: Cardinals +7½ -140 at 5Dimes

1* on Cardinals +7½ -140

 
Posted : December 3, 2017 9:02 am
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Jimmy Boyd
Dec 03 '17, 4:05 PM in 7h
NFL | Browns vs Chargers
Play on: Browns +14 -105 at Bovada

Free Pick on Browns +

The last thing the public wants to do is to risk their money on the Browns right now. Cleveland is 0-11 and have failed to cover 4 straight and are just 2-9 ATS on the season. I don't blame them, but I just think there's way too much value here with the Browns to pass up. Keep in mind this is only the 4th time all season that Cleveland has been a double-digit underdog and the first time they are catching more than 11.

Yes, the Chargers have been playing well of late, as they are 5-2 in their last 7 and are back in the hunt for the AFC West title. I think it has them way overvalued right now. During this 5-2 stretch they beat a Giants team that at the time was playing as bad as any team has all season, they escaped with a 1-point win in Oakland, beat the Broncos at home, crushed the Bills in the game where they elected to start Peterman and he threw 5 picks in the first half and a Cowboys team that was lost without Elliott. Those are their only 5 wins on the season. I just don't think they should be laying two touchdowns against anyone.

While Cleveland hasn't been covering, they have had just about everything that could go wrong at the end of games to keep them from covering happen. Last week they Cincinnati scored a TD with less than 3 minutes to play to keep the Browns from covering. The week before they fumbled and the Jaguars returned it for a score to keep them covering and prior to that game they were getting 10 and had a 7-point lead with less than a minute to play in the 3rd and lost by 14. I think this is the week they finally break through. Take Cleveland!

 
Posted : December 3, 2017 9:03 am
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Dustin Hawkins
Dec 03 '17, 1:00 PM in 4h
NFL | Texans vs Titans
Play on: Texans +7 -116 at BMaker

Free Play on Texans +7 -116

 
Posted : December 3, 2017 9:03 am
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TJ Pemberton
Dec 03 '17, 7:05 PM in 10h
NHL | Senators vs Jets
Play on: Jets -150 at 5Dimes

NHL Free Play: Winnipeg Jets

The Winnipeg Jets remain on their home ice after beating Vegas 7-2 at home on Friday. The Jets will host the Ottawa Senators on Sunday. Winnipeg is 16-64 on the season and 1st in the Central. The Jets are 7-2-1 over their last ten games and are 9-2-1 on their home ice. Connor Hellebuyck will take his spot in the goal for the Jets. Hellebuyck is 14-2-3 on the season with 48 goals allowed Hellebuyck carries a 2.43 goals against average and a .923 save percentage. Mike Condon will make the start for the Senators on Sunday. Condon is 2-1-3 on the season with 17 goals allowed. Condon carries a 2.62 goals against average and a .917 save percentage.

Key Trends:

The Jets are 15-3 in their last 18 home games and are 5-0 in their last 5 Sunday games. The Senators are 1-4 in their last 5 road games and are 1-4 in their last 5 Sunday games.
The Jets are 5th in the NHL in goals per game and 7th in the league in goals allowed. The Jets are a solid team on their home ice and have momentum after taking care of Vegas in their last game. The Senators have a another tough road one on Sunday.

 
Posted : December 3, 2017 9:04 am
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Dennis Macklin
Dec 03 '17, 4:05 PM in 7h
NFL | Browns vs Chargers
Play on: OVER 41½ -108

DMack's Free Play for Sunday, December 3, 2017, is on the Browns/Chargers Over

Despite favorites going 37-15-4 in November and that the Browns are 8-29-1 ATS in their L38 game overall, still not interested giving or taking here but still interested in the total. The suddenly raging Chargers need just one more win to get to .500 and are right in the mix with the Chiefs and Raiders for the AFC West or a wildcard spot. They're also in a rare revenge spot vs. Cleveland in that if you remember, it was the Chargers who saved Cleveland the ignominy of being only the second winless team of the modern era by losing to the Browns 20-17 on Christmas Eve. In the end, though, we don't think it will be doing the job and getting the win. Philip Rivers was near perfect in his near surgical dissection of the Dallas defense producing 500 yards and without question (kicker lost 1st Q) at least 10 more points. He'll be facing a Browns defense that has hit the wall and given up 30 plus to any jersey but Tennessee and Jacksonville the last seven games. If we put the Chargers on 30+, Cleveland won't need to do much heavy lifting to have this one flying over the total. Play the Over.

 
Posted : December 3, 2017 9:05 am
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