Playoff Rookie Quarterbacks
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The NFL playoffs continue this weekend with the divisional round as four teams that rested last week will hit the field. One of those squads will feature a rookie quarterback making his playoff debut as Dak Prescott will look to lead Dallas past Green Bay on Sunday. Rookie signal-callers aren’t exactly the best bets in the NFL postseason as history tells us by owning a substandard record both straight-up and against the spread.
Prescott becomes the 16th rookie to quarterback a playoff game since 1983, but his predecessors have compiled an 8-15 SU and 11-12 ATS record. Six of these quarterbacks have won their playoff debut with the last one being Seattle’s Russell Wilson in the 2012 Wild Card round at Washington in a 24-14 victory as three-point favorites. Wilson joins a group alongside Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, Ben Roethlisberger, Shaun King, and T.J. Yates that picked up a postseason win in their first opportunity.
Plenty of successful quarterbacks (and one Hall-of-Famer) didn’t fare as well in their first playoff start as a rookie. Matt Ryan, Andy Dalton, Bernie Kosar, Jim Everett, Andrew Luck, and that Hall-of-Famer Dan Marino all lost in their postseason debuts in their first season. The most recent quarterback to start a playoff game was Oakland’s Connor Cook, who was thrust into that role after Derek Carr and Matt McGloin each were injured late in the season. Needless to say, Cook struggled by throwing three interceptions in a 27-14 setback at Houston.
Cook was making his first professional start against the Texans, which hurts the numbers for rookies, while former Raiders’ first round bust Todd Marinovich made his second career start in the 1991 Wild Card round loss to the Chiefs. Yates outdueled fellow rookie Dalton in the 2011 Wild Card round as Houston beat Cincinnati, 31-10 as four-point home favorites.
Not one rookie quarterback has ever reached the Super Bowl, but Flacco, Sanchez, Roethlisberger, and King all went to the conference championships in their first season. Flacco led Baltimore to a pair of road victories at Miami and Tennessee in 2008 before bowing out to Pittsburgh as six-point underdogs in the AFC Championship. The next season, Sanchez paced the Jets past the Bengals and Chargers in the first two rounds before losing to the Colts in the AFC title game.
Three active quarterbacks that started as rookies in the postseason are still alive in these playoffs (Ryan, Roethlisberger, Wilson). Out of that trio, Roethlisberger is the only quarterback that made his debut at home, beating the Jets in the divisional round before getting blown out by the Patriots in the AFC Championship in 2004. Bringing it back to Prescott, who faces Green Bay at home, rookie QB’s own a 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS at home, including a 1-3 ATS mark in the home favorite role.
From a totals perspective (not doubling up on Yates/Dalton and Wilson/Griffin matchups), the OVER has cashed in 10 of 19 opportunities. Only one game had a total of 50 or higher as Ryan and the Falcons lost to the Cardinals on the road in 2008 by a 30-24 count on a 52 total. The total on the Cowboys/Packers matchup is currently sitting at 52.
In his first start against the Packers back in Week 6 at Lambeau Field, Prescott threw three touchdown passes in a 30-16 victory over Green Bay. In seven of eight home games, Prescott didn’t throw an interception, while owning an 11/1 touchdown to interception ratio at AT&T Stadium. However, Dallas closed the season on a 1-5 ATS run, while Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers owns a solid 5-1 ATS mark as a road underdog in the postseason.