I can run the numbers for you, but I have not played this system in the past b/c it hasv just broken even. Scoring is usually up during the bowl games as well, but the lines makers adjust for this accordingly. Lines during bowl games are very difficult to find value on. The linesmakers have weeks to prepare for these games.
I will run the numbers for you this weekend and will see how it does.
Very interesting system: thanks for sharing. Since you said you've been using this system the past two years, I was curious if you waited a certain amount of time into a season before using it, since you wouldn't be able to compare the average scores for the current season until (obviously) some games had been played. Or did you just start off the season using the average from the previous seven years until you had enough current season games to make it valid? Also, did you find that the overall average of your wins climbed as the season went on, since again you would have had more games in the current season to compare to the previous seven years? I guess I'm already thinking about next season and was wondering how you handled that issue.
Thanks again for sharing your thoughts and approach to this.
I left the first 2 weeks out. And then on some teams I waited until the third week b/c big name teams will play those crap schools and win 77- 3. That throws the numbers off.
Didn't really see an increase over the season, do to the fact that I think the lines get sharper. There were two weekends that it went 10-1.
One more question (or at least one more until I come up with even more questions...sorry): in one of your earliest posts on this thread (when you were explaining your system) you said the following:
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Non play example: Auburn at West Virginia
Average total score since 2000: 40.19
Average total score this season: 33.77
Opening line is at 44 falling in between the totals, making this a non play.
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I have questions about this. First, since the difference between the previous average and the current average is greater than 2.5, then would that have taken this game out of consideration anyway? And when you say the opening line of 44 fell in between the totals, was that a typo and you meant "34", or am I understanding this wrong. Sorry if I'm being a bit dense about all this (I don't get out much). Thanks again.