Poinsettia Bowl News and Notes

Trend Sheet

TCU (10 - 2) vs. BOISE ST (12 - 0)
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 78-45 ATS (+28.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 78-45 ATS (+28.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 54-20 ATS (+32.0 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 49-18 ATS (+29.2 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
BOISE ST is 29-10 ATS (+18.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
TCU is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as a favorite this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Poinsettia Bowl

TCU vs. Boise State

TCU
8-2 ATS as favorite
23-12 ATS in all games

Boise State
44-13 ATS off BB conference games
49-18 ATS off conference win

TCU vs. BOISE STATE
TCU is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
TCU is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
Boise State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Poinsettia Bowl
By Judd Hall

The Poinsettia Bowl doesn’t have the history that other bowls games have since it’s only been around since 2005. Yet it does have one of the most intriguing matchups of the college football postseason as the No. 9 Broncos and No. 11 Horned Frogs face off at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, California.

By now almost everyone is familiar with Boise State. They captured the nation’s imagination two years ago with a gadget play-filled Fiesta Bowl victory over Oklahoma to cap off an undefeated season. The Broncos expected more of the same in 2008 after running through the regular season unscathed. Unfortunately for them, Utah also went 12-0 during the year to garner the automatic bid for the “mid-major” conference to the BCS party this season.

Will that snub act as motivation for Chris Pedersen’s Broncos or will it turn out to be a major letdown for these kids? That remains to be seen. What we do know is that Boise State will be trotting out an offense that can compete with practically any program in the nation.

Boise State currently averages 456.8 yards per game on offense this year, which ranks them 13th in the nation overall. The reason for such prolific numbers is due to the fact that they have no problem going from a spread attack with four wide receivers, then bring it in close in an I-formation on the following play.

That strategy has helped the Broncos keep opponents on their toes during the year given the talent they possess. Of course, it’s not hard to put up those type of numbers when eight of the defenses (nine if you count Idaho State, 118th in FCS) you face are ranked 71st or worse in total defense.

Regardless of the quality of opponent, the talent really can’t be denied on Boise State...especially in the backfield. Ian Johnson once again led the program with 738 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns in his senior campaign. Jeremy Avery also proved that he is the future of the team by gaining 613 yards on the ground for four scores.

The Broncos’ passing attack is in good hands as well with Kellen Moore under center. The redshirt freshman from Prosser, Washington was 10th amongst all Football Bowl Subdivision quarterbacks with a rating of 161.5. One of the reasons he has been so successful is that he reads the entire field well and spreads the ball accordingly, as evidenced by nine receivers having at least 10 catches in 2008. Moore’s favorite target, junior wide out Jeremy Childs, caught 65 passes for 741 yards and seven touchdowns.

Despite the impressive numbers for the Broncos, Las Vegas Sports Consultants still listed TCU as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 46. Bettors can take BSU to complete its second undefeated season in three years for a return of plus-115 (risk $100 to win $115).

One of the reasons for the Horned Frogs to be listed as favorites is that they have one of the country’s best defenses. TCU is second only to Southern California in scoring defense (10.9 points per game) and overall defense (215.1 YPG).

Texas Christian has been particularly stingy against the run this year, allowing only 48.7 YPG on the ground. They’ve been able to keep those types of numbers thanks to a d-line that isn’t particularly big (263 pounds per player), but is mobile enough to get at least 7.8 tackles for a loss each game. This group, headed by the nation’s top sack artist Jerry Hughes, also helps in causing a lot of three-and-outs by letting opponents covert just 28.8 percent on third down.

Gary Patterson’s team isn’t all defense; they have a pretty nice offense as well that gained 417.1 YPG. The majority of the Horned Frogs’ success on the attack comes from the rushing tandem of Aaron Brown and Joseph Turner. In Brown, TCU has a runner that has no problem moving from laterally in the open field. Meanwhile, Turner is the perfect contrast in that he isn’t afraid to take a beating by running between the tackles. The end result is a duo that helped Texas Christian gain 215.7 YPG on the ground this season.

When it comes to TCU’s passing game, it is mostly a management system ran by Andy Dalton. The sophomore from Katy, Texas completed just 58.8 percent of his passes this year for 2,045 yards. But he was able to keep his mistakes to a minimum when you look at his touchdown-to-interception ratio being 11:4. Dalton’s has relied on Jimmy Young to be his top receiver, snaring 54 passes for 926 yards and five scores.

The Frogs will be taking on a defensive unit that is 16th in the nation by surrendering 294.5 YPG this season. Although, the quality of opponent the Broncos faced this year certainly handicaps that number.

What will be the main focus of this contest is how well Boise State can stop the run. The Broncs ranked 15th overall in rush defense, giving up 104.9 YPG on the ground. Yet their corps of linebackers is small (214 pounds per man), when compared to TCU’s runners Brown (6’1”, 196) and Turner (6’1”, 226). That will come into play if the Horned Frogs employ a strategy of rushing on the outside of the line.

If there is one thing you have been able to count on from the Broncos it is that they’ll play hard in these postseason battles. They’ve posted a respectable 5-3 straight up record in bowl games and 6-2 against the spread. The ‘under’ is 6-2 in those contests as well.

One of those postseason games also happened to showcase the lone matchup of these two squads. Boise State beat the Horned Frogs as a three-point underdog, 34-31, in the inaugural PlainsCapital Fort Worth Bowl (now Armed Forces Bowl) in 2003.

The Broncos have played extremely well against Mountain West foes, boasting a 7-0 mark SU and 3-4 ATS since 2002.

Texas Christian has enjoyed moderate bowl success under Patterson by going 4-3 SU and ATS since 2000. Bettors have been able to wager on the ‘under’ as it has went 4-2-1 in his tenure.

Favorites have gone 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the history of the Poinsettia Bowl. The ‘over is 2-1 in those matches as well.

ESPN will broadcast this contest at 8:00 p.m. EST.

vegasinsider.com

What bettors need to know: Poinsettia Bowl
By DAVID MALINSKY

T.C.U. vs. Boise State (+2.5, 46.5)

Line moves

The early bettors have agreed with the oddsmakers that T.C.U. deserves the favorites role, and while -2.5 remains common, we are seeing the money lines adjusting upwards to the Horned Frogs. The question will be whether stores want to risk going to -3, and having immediate underdog money come in. The Total of 45.5 – 46 is low for an early bowl game at a site that should produce nice weather, but it reflects just how good these defenses have been.

If the betting markets ran the bowl games

There was considerable discussion in the national media about whether unbeaten Boise State was snubbed by the BCS, but those responsible for setting the betting lines made the most pronounced statement.

Not only are the Broncos not deserving of a BCS bid, but they are not even favored in the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl. That’s because we aren’t far away from having a BCS caliber game here - quite a coup for this young bowl. This could even be a better matchup than the Cincinnati/Virginia Tech Orange Bowl.

A different bucking Bronco

Great regular season runs are nothing new for Boise State, but this time the path was a bit different. It was the defense that came front and center, only allowing more than 16 points in road games against explosive Oregon and Nevada offenses.

Oregon was the only team that dented them for more than 200 yards over land and no opponent was able to throw for more than 261. But that defense was needed because the offense lacked the usual spark, particularly on the ground.

Freshman QB Kevin Moore had a tremendous debut, throwing for 3,264 yards and sporting a ratio of 25 touchdown passes versus only nine interceptions, but now he runs into the toughest defense he has faced in his young career.

Real horns on these Frogs

The TCU defense is without a flaw, bringing a combination of toughness and speed. They were almost impenetrable on the ground where the Horned Frogs rated No. 1 in the nation. On the road they held BCS bound Oklahoma (25 yards) and Utah (45 yards) to their season-lows in rushing.

This one gets determined…

Although Boise State has managed to go undefeated without the ground game playing a lead role, the Broncos are going to have to find some ability to have success with the run.

It isn’t so much that they need big yardage, but they need to establish enough of a threat to keep the pass rush from getting after Moore. TCU finished No. 2 in the nation in sacks and No. 11 in tackles for loss.

If Boise can’t have success running on the early downs it will mean more third-and-long situations than the young QB has faced this season, when he never took a single snap while trailing in the second half of a game.

Unbeaten Broncos try to fend off TCU
December 22, 2008

SAN DIEGO (AP) -The Poinsettia Bowl, the little brother of the Holiday Bowl, sure grew up fast.

The No. 9 and undefeated Boise State Broncos and No. 11 TCU Horned Frogs meet Tuesday night in the Poinsettia Bowl, which despite its lower-tier status has put together a marquee matchup that's going to be overshadowed by only a few games this postseason.

``I think it's one of the best matchups of all the bowl games,'' TCU coach Gary Patterson said Monday. ``Besides the national championship game, I'd put this one right up with the one that'll be played up north of here.''

In other words, the Poinsettia Bowl should fall in line right behind the BCS national championship game between No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Oklahoma, and the Rose Bowl between No. 5 USC and No. 6 Penn State.

``If you just want to watch a great football game, that's hopefully what we'll give them,'' Patterson said. ``The intrigue of this ballgame, I think, is what makes this game special. Two teams that come from nowhere, not a lot of people know about.''

The Broncos, the school with the blue turf and the Fiesta Bowl darlings two years ago, are trying for their second unbeaten season in the last three years. Despite their 12-0 record, the Western Athletic Conference champion Broncos were bypassed by the BCS in favor of Mountain West Conference champion Utah.

The Utes, who also went undefeated, earned a Sugar Bowl bid. Their closest call this season came when they had to rally to beat TCU 13-10.

Patterson said he thinks Boise State deserves to be in a BCS game, but he's glad for the chance to face the Broncos.

``Having the opportunity to play Boise State gives you a measuring stick of understanding where we want to go as a program and where we want to be,'' Patterson said. ``They're exactly what we're trying to get to. Boise State wins championships.

``We understand there's quite a wall in front of us trying to get that done.''

TCU (10-2) brings in the best run defense in the country (48 yards allowed per game) and the No. 2 total and scoring defense behind Southern California. Defensive end Jerry Hughes, a second-team All-American, leads a stellar line.

The Broncos play good defense, too, allowing 12 point per game, but it's their offense that usually draws headlines.

Kellen Moore had a sensational redshirt freshman season for the Broncos, throwing for 3,264 yards and 25 touchdowns while completing 70 percent of his passes.

The Broncos followed up their thrilling overtime win over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl two seasons ago by losing to East Carolina in the Hawaii Bowl last year.

The Broncos hope to avoid a slow start like they had in the Hawaii Bowl.

``We're playing a better opponent this year,'' BSU coach Chris Peterson said. ``Our guys are aware of it. I think they've practiced with more intensity and more energy. But if we don't necessarily come out of the gates gangbusters, it's not because we're not preparing or anything. A lot of it has to do with that opponent you're playing, as well.

``We spent a lot of time trying to address that issue. I don't want to minimize East Carolina. Those guys were good. We just try to live and learn from the past, whether it was good or bad and get better was we move forward.''

TheSpread Preview & Pick

Take TCU –3 to knock off undefeated Boise State

Boise State used trick plays to upset Oklahoma in a BCS bowl two years ago. Though they were left out of a big-money game this season, the Broncos may be in need of some extra offensive ingenuity again.

The ninth-ranked Broncos, whose undefeated record wasn't good enough for a BCS spot, look to overcome the second-ranked defense in the nation when they face No. 11 TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl at San Diego on Dec. 23.

Oddsmakers from Online Sportsbook Sports Interaction have made TCU –2.5 point spread favorites for the Poinsettia Bowl against Boise State. Current College Fooball Public Betting Information shows that 50% of more than 10,233 bets for this game have been placed on the Boise State +2.5.

Boise State (12-0) has landed in the four-year-old Poinsettia in perhaps the marquee matchup of any of the non-BCS bowl games.

Despite winning their games by an average of 27.2 points, the Broncos were a longshot to nab one of the two at-large berths available in the BCS, especially with Utah from the Mountain West Conference ranked two spots higher. The Utes will face Alabama in the Sugar Bowl and the Fiesta Bowl went with Ohio State instead of Boise State, even though the Broncos were ranked one spot higher in the final BCS standings.

But Boise State, coming off its sixth WAC championship, doesn't mind facing a team as highly regarded as TCU (10-2), which has only lost to No. 2 Oklahoma and No. 10 Utah.

"We wanted to go to the BCS, but I believe this is the best bowl game there is outside the BCS," Broncos receiver Vinny Perretta said. "We did everything we could do. I'm not going to sit here and complain about it."

The Broncos have faced just one ranked team this season, then-No. 17 Oregon on Sept. 20. They led the Ducks 34-13 before winning 37-32 in Eugene, their first road win over a BCS-conference team.

Boise State has the 12th-ranked offense in the nation, averaging 39.4 points a contest, but may find it tough to put up 30 points versus TCU.

In the Broncos' stunning Fiesta Bowl upset over the Sooners two years ago, they used a hook-and-lateral to score the tying touchdown and a Statue of Liberty play to score the decisive 2-point conversion to cap a 13-0 season and earn a No. 5 ranking in the final AP poll.

They may want to think about digging deep into their playbook for this contest, too.

The Horned Frogs boast the nation's second-ranked scoring defense, holding opponents to 10.9 points per game. Only No. 5 Southern California has allowed fewer points, giving up 7.8 a contest.

TCU has the top-ranked rushing defense, with opponents gaining 48.7 yards per game. That's 24.9 yards less than No. 3 Texas, which is second in that category at 73.6 yards per game.

"I totally think TCU is a BCS team and most of the people who know about TCU think the same," Boise State coach Chris Petersen said. "This is the best team we will have played all year. It will present a tremendous challenge to us without question."

Foremost, the Broncos will have to account for Frogs defensive end Jerry Hughes, who leads the nation with 14 sacks and has 18 1/2 tackles for loss. He also has two interceptions, six forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries.

Hughes helped lead TCU in a 44-10 win over Air Force on Nov. 22 in its regular-season finale. It was the eighth time the Frogs held an opponent to 10 points or fewer.

Boise State, though, has an offense that flourished late, averaging 49.0 points in its last five games, and it has plenty of playmakers. The Broncos set a season high in points against Fresno State on Nov. 28 in their final regular-season game, winning 61-10.

Kellen Moore, a second-team all-WAC selection, led the league with a 161.5 passer rating. The redshirt freshman completed 70.0 percent of his passes for 3,264 yards and 25 touchdowns against nine interceptions.

Moore is complemented by a rushing attack that averages 183.5 yards a contest. Ian Johnson and Jeremy Avery share the load, combining for 1,416 yards and 16 TDs.

"Boise State is a BCS-caliber team, and I have a high admiration for Chris Petersen and his staff," TCU coach Gary Patterson said. "They do an outstanding job in all phases of their team."

Still, the Broncos have been inconsistent on offense at times, and they will have little margin for error against the Frogs.

TCU also has a potent offense, which is often overshadowed by its stifling defense. The Frogs have five players with at least 399 yards rushing, and lead the nation in time of possession (34:50). It will be critical for TCU to try and control the clock, especially if Boise State finds a way to crack the Frogs' defense.

The Frogs ranked 13th in the nation in rushing offense, averaging 215.6 yards per game. But TCU's passing game also started heating up toward the end of the regular season, topping 300 yards in two of its last four games.

Andy Dalton has been mostly mistake-free, completing 58.8 percent of his passes for 2,045 yards and 11 TDs while getting picked off four times. He'll be facing a Boise State defense that has certainly held its own.

The Broncos are third in the nation in scoring defense at 12.3 points per game, a number inflated by 27 points on interception returns. They rank 15th against the run, giving up 104.9 yards a contest.

TCU and Boise State will be facing each other for the second time. The first meeting was also a matchup of Top 25 teams with the 18th-ranked Broncos beating the 19th-ranked Frogs 34-31 in the 2003 Fort Worth Bowl.