Poinsettia Bowl News and Notes 12/23

Bowl Tech Trends
By Bruce Marshall

NAVY at SAN DIEGO STATE (Poinsettia Bowl, Dec. 23)...Aztecs in first bowl since '98 and haven't won a bowl game 1969. Navy 5-1 vs. line last 6 bowl games. Mids 44-22 vs. spread away from Annapolis since 2002, and have covered last five as road dog since a year ago. Tech edge-Navy, based on team trends.

Poinsettia Bowl Preview
By: Matt Zemek

The 2010 Poinsettia Bowl will be played at the home of the San Diego State Aztecs. Yet, due to the fact that San Diego is a city with a considerable naval heritage and presence, the “home team” in this postseason pageant might actually be the group from the United States Naval Academy. That’s just one twist in a game that’s full of them.

Try this on for size as well. The Navy – for all the air craft carriers and fighter jets it might possess – is comfortable with a ground-hugging football methodology. The boys from Annapolis – when they strap on the pads and don helmets for three and a half hours on a gridiron littered with yard lines and hash marks – prefer to travel by means of their flexbone offense, a form of the more generalized triple-option style that all three service academies have taken to, at least to some degree. It’s the Aztecs who can wing the ball and climb the skies. San Diego State poses a pro-set offense with a vertical passing attack and a straightforward one-setback running game. Two different ways of moving the ball will be on display inside San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium.

The Midshipmen, when they looked at the full schedule that was placed before them, felt they had a real chance to win 11 games within the course of the regular season. Navy got stopped four times inside the 10 in a bitter Labor Day loss against in-state rival Maryland. Navy committed a holding penalty to wipe out an important first-down-gaining run in the red zone. That crucial lapse caused the team to absorb a 14-6 loss to Air Force. The Midshipmen then got bossed around at home, losing to lowly Duke in a 34-31 donnybrook in which Duke’s quarterback, Sean Renfree, hit 28 of 30 passes in what was undeniably the most accurate passing performance of the entire season by a quarterback who threw at least 30 aerials. Navy had a chance to accomplish big things against its schedule this year, but an inconsistent group with an inexperienced defense must settle for this bowl bid and not a much more substantial postseason prize. Coach Ken Niumatalolo’s team pulled out a number of very close wins, including a 38-37 triumph over Central Michigan due to a missed two-point conversion by CMU in the final minute, but Navy also failed to crush most of its 2010 foes when the opportunity presented itself.

The Aztecs, like Navy, did not close the sale in tight games this season; otherwise, they also would have found their way to a more prime-time bowl game. SDSU lost at Missouri in the final minutes of regulation and dropped three other contests – at BYU, at TCU, and at home against Utah – by one-score margins (no more than five points, to be precise). An 8-4 season could have been so much more impactful. Yet, on the sunshine side of things, the Aztecs will be playing in their first bowl game since 1998 because quarterback Ryan Lindley and running back Ronnie Hillman have formed a very dynamic combo in the backfield. Coach Brady Hoke is one of the rising and most dependable coaches in the United States, and if he stays in San Diego, the Aztecs could become the next TCU… well, minus the move to the Big East Conference (you get the drift).

The key to this game is really rather simple: Both teams have struggled to play focused football for all four quarters. Blown leads, untimely errors and overall inconsistency have plagued SDSU and Navy despite their successes in 2010. The team that pushes forward and finds the killer instinct will walk away with a smile after a season that has not been without its share of agonies.

STAT PACK

Navy:

Passing Yards Per Game: 111.5 (National ranking out of 120 FBS teams: 118)

Rushing Yards Per Game: 302.5 (Ranking: 5)

Points Per Game: 31.0 (Ranking: 40)

Points Allowed Per Game: 22.8 (Ranking: T-43)

San Diego State:

Passing: 297.0 ypg (Ranking: 11)

Rushing: 151.5 ypg (Ranking: 64)

Scoring: 35.0 ppg (Ranking: 20)

Scoring Defense: 22.8 ppg (Ranking: T-43)

NCAA Bowl Betting: Navy vs San Diego State
By: Stephen Nover

Navy faces several situational disadvantages when it meets San Diego State Thursday night at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego in the Poinsettia Bowl.

The Midshipmen should have plenty of their fans on board since San Diego has the largest naval base on the West Coast. But Qualcomm Stadium is home to the Aztecs, who went 5-1 there this year.

Navy also was able to schedule only eight practices since it beat Army, 31-17, on Dec. 11 while San Diego State was able to hold 13 bowl practices following its last game on Nov. 27.

The Aztecs currently are 3½-point favorites with the ‘over/under’ at 60½. Kickoff is at 5 p.m. PT with ESPN televising.

Navy has covered in five of is last six bowl games. The Midshipmen also are 6-0 ATS the past six times they’ve been underdogs.

A key question is do the Midshipmen have the athletes to defend San Diego’s high-powered passing attack?

The Midshipmen haven’t surrendered a passing touchdown of more than 45 yards in going 9-3. The Aztecs, 8-4, have one of the best wide receiving tandems in the country with DeMarco Sampson and Vincent Brown.

Sampson caught 65 passes for 1,175 yards and eight touchdowns. Brown had 61 receptions for 1,187 yards and nine scores. Only Hawaii had two wide receivers that combined for more receiving yards per game.

Ryan Lindley threw for 3,554 passing yards, tops in the Mountain West Conference. His 28 touchdowns tied TCU’s Andy Dalton for most in the league.

Navy won’t just be able to key on San Diego’s State aerial attack, however. The Aztecs’ Ronnie Hillman set a Mountain West freshman record with 1,304 yards rushing, running for at least 150 yards five times.

Navy isn’t nearly as balanced as San Diego State. The Midshipmen run an option offense ranking fifth in rushing and 118th in passing. Senior quarterback Ricky Dobbs accounted for 2,240 yards and 25 touchdowns with 13 coming on the ground.

The Midshipmen, one of three independents along with Army and Notre Dame, averaged 288.9 yards on the ground with running backs Alexander Teich rushing for 825 yards and Gee Gee Greene running for 459 yards. The two backs combined for 10 touchdowns.

San Diego State gave up the third-fewest rushing yards in the Mountain West ranking 46th overall allowing 135 yards per game. The Aztecs held four teams to fewer than 90 yards on the ground. Linebacker Miles Burris leads the Aztecs in tackles with 74 and sacks with 9½.

This was San Diego State’s first winning year since 1998. That year also marked the Aztecs’ last bowl appearance. The Aztecs lost their four games this season by a combined 15 points, including 40-35 to third-ranked TCU as 27½-point road ‘dogs.

San Diego State also had a narrow loss to 20th-ranked Utah, 38-34, as 2 ½-point home ‘dogs. The Aztecs closed their regular season by destroying UNLV, 48-14, covering as 24-point home favorites.

Navy concluded its regular season with a 31-17 win against arch-rival Army, covering as 7½-point favorites at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The combined 48 points dipped ‘under’ the 52½-point total. It’s just the second time in the last six games Navy has gone ‘under’ the total. The ‘over’ has cashed in five of Navy’s past six bowl matchups.

The Midshipmen are averaging 41 points in their last six games. Navy is 7-0 ATS the past seven times it has met an opponent with a winning mark.

The weather forecast is for clear skies with temperatures in the 50s and five mph winds.

Poinsettia Bowl Prevew
By Brian Edwards

For the first time in more than a decade, San Diego State (8-4 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) is going bowling. Better yet, the Aztecs get to play in front of the home folks in the Poinsettia Bowl at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego.

Most betting shops are listing Brady Hoke’s team as a 3 1/2-point favorite with a total of 60 ½. Gamblers can take the Midshipmen to win outright for a plus-145 payout (risk $100 to win $145).

When this number came out earlier this month, Sportsbook.com opened San Diego St. as a five-point favorite with a total of 60 ½.

“We’ve had sharp money come in on the underdog, causing us to move the line down to 3.5,” Sportsbook.com Senior Oddsmaker Mike Perry told VI on Tuesday afternoon. “We haven’t moved the total at all, but 81% of our bets have come in on the ‘over.’ Navy has received 58% of our bets on the side.”

Hoke has done a remarkable job in turning the San Diego St. program around in just his second season since taking the job after leading Ball St. to an unbeaten regular season two years ago. The turnaround began with Hoke hiring an outstanding staff, including former New Mexico head coach Rocky Long as his defensive coordinator.

Also, Hoke hired Al Borges as his offensive coordinator. Borges had previously held the same post at big-time programs like Oregon, UCLA and Auburn, where he was the play-caller for Tommy Tuberville’s unbeaten team that featured Jason Campbell, Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown. Another high-profile name on the Aztecs’ staff is quarterbacks coach Brian Sipe, the alum who made a name for himself as the QB of the Cleveland Browns in the early 1980s.

San Diego St. went 4-8 in Hoke’s first year, but it won three of its first four games this season. Even better, the Aztecs covered the spread in their first four contests. The lone defeat came at Missouri by a 27-24 count in Week 3, with SDS taking the cash as a 14 ½-point underdog.

Following a 24-21 loss at BYU on Oct. 9, SDS won four in a row and went into TCU on Nov. 13 in contention to win the Mountain West. With every fringe national-title contender rooting for the Aztecs to upset the undefeated Horned Frogs as 27 ½-point road underdogs, they promptly took a 14-0 lead.

The lead only lasted until midway through the second quarter, as TCU produced 37 unanswered points. But SDS wouldn’t go away and made it a one-possession game again when it cut the deficit to 40-35 with 4:50 to play. However, the outright upset wasn’t to be, although the Aztecs easily hooked up their backers in the five-point loss.

San Diego St. dropped another heartbreaker the next week when Utah captured a 38-34 win as a 2 ½-point road favorite. The Aztecs ended the two-game slide by spanking UNLV 48-14 as 24-point home ‘chalk’ in their regular-season finale.

Navy (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) brings a four-game winning streak into its eighth consecutive postseason appearance. Since Paul Johnson went 2-10 in his first year back in 2002, the Midshipmen have won at least eight games every year. The success has continued under third-year head coach Ken Niumatalolo, who owns a 27-13 record.

Navy is coming off a 31-17 win over Army as a 7 ½-point favorite. Senior quarterback Ricky Dobbs ran for 54 yards and threw for 186 and a pair of touchdowns against the Black Knights.

Dobbs has been the catalyst the last two years. He set a single-season NCAA record for a QB in 2009 by rushing for 27 touchdowns. Dobbs has 48 career touchdowns and 290 career points, both of which are Navy records. His passing has improved this year, as Dobbs has 1,296 yards through the air with a 12/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Dobbs Factor has veteran VegasInsider.com handicapper Andy Iskoe bullish on the underdog.

“I like Navy in this game because of its superior running game and postseason experience,” Iskoe said on Tuesday. “While many are thinking of this as a home game for San Diego St., I think it could be the opposite because of the huge Navy base in San Diego and the fact that SDS struggles for hometown support in the area.”

This is Navy’s third bowl game in San Diego in the last six years. In the inaugural Poinsettia in 2005, the Midshipmen beat Colorado St. by a 51-30 count as a three-point favorite. However, two years later, Navy lost a 35-32 decision in the ’07 Poinsettia Bowl although it did cover the number as an eight-point underdog.

Navy finished last season with a 10-4 record thanks to a 35-13 blowout victory over Missouri at the Texas Bowl. If the Midshipmen prevail Thursday night over SDS, it will be the first time it has ever won 10 games in back-to-back seasons.

SDS hasn’t won a bowl game since beating Boston U. 28-7 in the 1969 Pasadena Bowl. Since then, the Aztecs have lost in all three of their postseason appearances – to Iowa in the 1986 Holiday Bowl, to Tulsa in the 1991 Freedom Bowl and to North Carolina in the 1998 Las Vegas Bowl.

Kick-off is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on Thursday night. ESPN will have the telecast.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

Dobbs has many goals beyond football. In fact, he wants to become President of the Unites States by the year 2040.

SDS quarterback Ryan Lindley has thrown for 3,554 yards with a 26/14 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Aztecs have excellent balance with freshman RB Ronnie Hillman enjoying a breakout campaign. Hillman garnered Freshman of the Year honors in the MWC after rushing for 1,304 yards and 14 touchdowns. He averaged 5.6 yards per carry.

San Diego St. was a single-digit favorite three times during the regular season, compiling a 2-1 spread record. Meanwhile, Navy covered the number in all three of its games as an underdog, winning outright twice (at East Carolina and vs. Notre Dame).

The 'under' is 6-4-1 overall for San Diego St., but the 'over' hit at a 3-1-1 clip in its last five games.

The 'over' is 6-5 overall for Navy, but the 'under' cashed in its last two regular-season contests.

These teams haven’t collided since 1997 when the Aztecs beat the Midshipmen 45-31 as four-point home favorites.

--LSU stud running back Stevan Ridley has been ruled ineligible for the Cotton Bowl against Texas A&M. Ridley rushed for a team-high 1,043 yards and 14 touchdowns this year.

Florida has now lost a pair of commitments since Urban Meyer’s resignation. The first was LB Ryan Shazier from Plantation High School in South Fla. He has since given Ohio State a verbal pledge. Then on Dec. 20, UF commit DB Nick Waisome decommitted from the Gators in order to commit to FSU. Waisome is a four-star recruit that’s ranked as the nation’s ninth-best cover corner by one recruiting service.

Dawgs247 reported earlier this week that Georgia has reached out to explore non-conference games against power programs from the Midwest, including Ohio State, Notre Dame, Penn State and Michigan.

vegasinsider.com

Tips and Trends

Navy Midshipmen vs. San Diego St Aztecs

MIDSHIPMEN: Navy finished the season with 4 straight wins, placing them 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS overall. The Midshipmen are a fringe top 25 team, and a win over San Diego St. could place them in the final top 25 standings. Navy was 3-1 both SU and ATS in true road games this year. The Midshipmen were 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS as the listed underdog this season. QB Ricky Dobbs had over 2,200 YDS of total offense this season, including 25 TD's. Dobbs leads a rushing attack that averaged 288 YPG this year, 5th best in the nation. Defensively, Navy allows 22.3 PPG this season. The Midshipmen are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games overall. Navy is 7-0 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Midshipmen are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games against the Mountain West Conference. The Midshipmen are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games. The Midshipmen are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on grass. Navy is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win. The Midshipmen are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played in December. Navy is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games.

Midshipmen are 6-0 ATS last 6 games as an underdog.
Over is 5-1 last 6 Bowl games.

Key Injuries - LB Max Blue (back) is questionable.

Projected Score: 24

AZTECS: (-3, o/u 60) San Diego St. has had a breakthrough season, as they've been one of the most improved teams in the nation. Coach Hoke has done an outstanding job for the Aztecs, and he was just locked in to a new contract. The Aztecs finished the regular season with an 8-4 SU and ATS record. Their season could have been even stronger, with close losses to Missouri, TCU, and BYU. This is a home game for San Diego St, where they were 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS this season. San Diego St. averages nearly 300 YPG through the air, 11th best in the country. QB Ryan Lindley has thrown for more than 3,500 YDS and 26 TD's this year. RB Ronnie Hillman has been brilliant for the Aztecs this year, rushing for more than 1,300 YDS and 14 TD's this season. Defensively, San Diego St. will have to be adept at stopping the Navy rushing attack. For the year, the Aztecs allowed 22.8 PPG. The Aztecs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. San Diego St. is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Aztecs are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Aztecs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. San Diego St. is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win.

Aztecs are 9-4 ATS last 13 games overall.
Under is 10-3 last 13 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

Key Injuries - DB Romeo Horn (foot) is questionable.

Projected Score: 27 (UNDER-Total of the Day)