Potential Arena Bowl Preview tops Friday menu
By: Steve Makinen
Should Jacksonville beat Spokane on Friday night at home, it will wrap up the Southern Division and #1 seed in the American Conference for the playoffs, which start next week. The Shock have already accomplished that feat in the National Conference, meaning the two teams’ head-to-head contest could be the same matchup we see in the 2010 Arena Bowl on August 20th. Spokane is by all rights the league’s best team going into the postseason, but weighing in the stakes on this game for the Sharks, oddsmakers at Bookmaker.com have installed them as 5-1/2 point favorites.
Spokane has yet to lose on the road this season, going 7-0 SU & 4-3 ATS while outscoring foes by 10.5 points per game. However, with everything wrapped up as far as the postseason and seeding is concerned, there’s no reason to believe that the Shock won’t treat this game as an exhibition. Obviously there are a couple of major reasons for this, first they don’t want to see any of their key players succumb to injury. Quarterback Kyle Rowley is the primary factor there. Secondly, having already beaten Jacksonville by a 67-57 margin back in May, the Shock already know they can beat the Sharks and won’t want to show too much this evening with a potential Arena Bowl matchup looming.
I briefly touched on what’s at stake for Jacksonville in tonight’s game, but here’s looking at it further. Win, and the Sharks wrap up a first ever division title for an expansion teams, the top seed in the conference playoffs, and at least two home games en route to the Arena League title. Should Spokane lose sometime in the National Conference Playoffs and Jacksonville emerge as the American Conference rep, then the Sharks would host the title game. However, should the Sharks lose this evening, they will drop to the #3 seed for the postseason, and have to travel to Tulsa for the playoff opener next weekend. With the Talons boasting a strong 6-2 mark at home, Jacksonville clearly wants to avoid that path.
One of the key factors affecting tonight’s game is the status of Jacksonville quarterback Aaron Garcia, who left the game against Tampa Bay two weeks ago with a dislocated shoulder. He is actually listed as questionable for this one. However, backup Bernard Morris has played very well in relief, picking up Playmaker of the Week honors for his efforts versus the Storm and following that up with four touchdowns a week ago in the win at Bossier-Shreveport, one on the ground. He is clearly a different type of quarterback than Garcia, and while Garcia is the more experienced and prolific passer, Morris brings a threat to run it that Garcia doesn’t.
One thing these teams share in common is their defensive intensity, and they rank as the top two teams in the Arena League in yards per play allowed. Jacksonville yields 6.1 and has allowed just 42.5 PPG over the last four weeks. Spokane allow 6.2 yards per play and has only allowed one opponent to top the 50-point mark in the last six weeks.
The only other prior meeting of these teams happened back on May 29th, when Spokane knocked off Jacksonville 67-57 as a 4-point favorite. That game featured just 475 yards of offense, low by Arena standards, with the Shock producing a season low 205 yards.
The pointspread for Friday’s contest opened at Jacksonville -5.5, dipped to 4.5 and has since climbed back to the opening number. The StatFox Power Ratings indicate the Shock should be 3-point favorites, but again, this doesn’t account for the motivational levels and what’s at stake for both teams. The total is 107.
Kickoff is set for 7:35 PM ET on NFL Network.
Also on the Friday slate, Tulsa wraps up its regular season in Oklahoma City and will play as 2.5-point underdogs to a Yard Dawgz team that boasts an impressive 5-2 SU & ATS record at home. This game boasts tonight’s Top FoxSheets Super Situation:
# Play On - Favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - ]after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents. (26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*)
In Arizona, the Rattlers will look to wrap the National Conference #3 playoff seed with a win over Iowa. A victory would send Arizona to Milwaukee next weekend, while a loss would have them in Spokane. Arizona is a 10-1/2 point favorite and comes in having not lost to the Iowa franchise in five games since ’96, going 5-0 SU & ATS.