Predicting the Big XII
By Judd Hall
When Texas narrowly defeated the Cornhuskers for the Big XII title last season, it appeared that the league had a chance for a renaissance of the early years of its existence. It’s a shame we won’t see another finale like that after this season with Nebraska heading to the Big Ten for the 2011 campaign. Then the Buffaloes allow the league some addition by subtraction by heading to the Pac-10 in two years. Still, we get one last title game out of this group. Let’s look at how both divisions stack up.
Big XII North:
1: Nebraska – The Cornhuskers have a lot of reasons to be excited about this season. They are coming off of a 33-0 bitch slapping of Arizona in the Holiday Bowl. They’re also bringing back 17 starters. Nebraska will no doubt suffer a drop-off on defense with seven starters returning that aren’t named Ndamukong Suh. Offensively, this program is still a work in progress with Zac Lee coming off of elbow surgery that kept him out of spring practice. The ‘Huskers get some leeway to start the season with a pair of cupcakes before heading to Seattle to face the Huskies. An Oct. 16 home test against the Longhorns is the only big challenge. There is no reason not to believe Bo Pelini will guide them to a 10-2 mark.
2: Missouri – It sure looks like Gary Pinkel has turned Missouri into a destination for many quality players in the country. He was able to keep Blaine Gabbert in-state to guide his high power offense. And he has a three-year starter in Derrick Washington to run the ball with great vision and speed. Mizzou has been soft on defense as of late (370.1 YPG, 64th nationally). They do have Aldon Smith coming off of an 11 ½ sack freshman campaign to anchor the defensive line. And the secondary returns intact with four senior starters. The season starts strong with a “gimme” against the Fighting Illini in St. Louis. What is an issue is the middle of the Tigers’ schedule. They play at Texas A&M, vs. Oklahoma, at Nebraska and at Texas Tech. And they won’t even get a bye week in that stretch. The logical prediction for this team is 8-4.
3: Kansas State – For whatever reason, Bill Snyder just gets things done in Manhattan. The Wildcats finished up with a solid 6-6 mark in his first year back. Now the Wildcats bring back 16 starters from that club. K-State will hit the ground hard with Daniel Thomas being a jack-of-all-trades as he’ll get some snaps under center. I’m sure plenty of Kansas State fans will be expecting Thomas to get the majority of those snaps in place of Carson Coffman, who never saw a defender he couldn’t throw an interception to in limited play in 2009. A win over UCLA to start the year is possible since they’re not supposed to be pretty bad. But games with Baylor, Texas from the other division is rough. I’ve got them finishing at 5-7, but could seem them hitting .500 again.
4: Iowa State – The sky is the limit in Ames right now after the Cyclones finished with a 7-6 record last season. There is reason for more optimism with Iowa State as Austen Arnaud and Alexander Robinson have improved a lot over the spring practices. This team is not all that big on the defensive line, averaging 256.5 pounds per body. The linebacking corp is inexperienced, but a lot more physical and the secondary is expected to be improved. The non-conference schedule is tough with Iowa and Utah on the slate. And trips to Oklahoma and Texas won’t do the Cyclones any favors. This team is actually better than the unit that went bowling last year. However, they’ll be 4-8 when all is said and done.
5: Colorado – There was a time that the Buffaloes thought they hit the jackpot by bringing in Dan Hawkins from Boise State. Four years and a 16-33 record have Hawkins wondering if Colorado is playing Division I football. There are pluses for the Buffs, notably an o-line that is returning everyone. That will help Rodney Stewart more as he runs the ball…might even help Cody Hawkins or Tyler Hansen under center (doubt it). The Buffaloes’ defense brings back seven starters, but boasts a lot more depth than any iteration of the unit has seen in Hawkins’ tenure. Colorado is faced with a must-win battle against the Rams that is the only real winnable game on its schedule. Yet I believe they’ll find a way to end up 3-9 once again. Perhaps Hawkins should get his resume cleaned up.
6: Kansas – Turner Gill is happy to be coaching in the Big XII, but won’t be pleased with the team he’s running in 2010. The Jayhawks are starting a new quarterback while installing a new offensive scheme to improve their running game (112.1 YPG, 101st nationally), which is not going to be easy. Kansas does bring back seven returning starters on defense, but they were not exactly known for speed last season. Don’t look for a miracle in Lawrence, where a 3-9 mark begins the post-Mangino era.
Big XII South :
1: Texas – The Longhorns may have lost the national championship last season, but there is plenty of reason to be optimistic in 2010. Garrett Gilbert grew up before everyone last January against the Crimson Tide, nearly guiding Texas to the title. Tre Newton looks to get a lot more playing time in the backfield this year since Gilbert is less mobile than old starter Colt McCoy. Texas is returning seven starters back on one of the nation’s best defenses, anchored by defensive end Sam Acho. Not much to worry about on the schedule for the ‘Horns outside of the battle with OU, so an 11-1 campaign is fully expected.
2: Oklahoma – Last year is being considered a fluke by many of the Sooner Nation. But 2009 could yield some serious dividends. Landry Jones was baptized by fire after Sam Bradford went down for the count, starting in 10 games. It helps Jones to know that DeMarco Murray to elude defenses and a complete offensive line coming back to Norman. The defense is a little thin with just six returning starters, which will have a tough time against the Seminoles, Falcons and Bearcats in non-conference play. But the league schedule is a cakewalk outside of the Red River Rivalry and puts the Sooners at 10-2.
3: Texas Tech – This year will be one of change for the Red Raiders with Tommy Tuberville taking over for the always riveting Mike Leach. He’ll get the wild air attack that Leach had already installed this season with Taylor Potts. But Tuberville will be installing a much more functional running game to give some balance to Texas Tech’s offense. The Raiders’ defense is going to be thin up front with just one starter coming back on the d-line. This is going to be a learning year for Texas Tech as they wind up with a 6-6 record.
4: Texas A&M – Mike Sherman has the Aggies going in the right direction after getting to a bowl game in second season at the helm. Yet there is plenty of room for improvement. The defense is in need of a major overhaul, switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 scheme. Jerrod Johnson will have a tough go of it in matching last years passing numbers (30 TD, 8 INT) with just one returning wide out from last year’s squad in Jeff Fuller. The schedule is full of teams they can hang with offensively. Only one problem, can they stop teams like the Sooners, Tigers and ‘Horns? I’m thinking that’s a “no.” Texas A&M will be happy with a 6-6 effort this year.
5: Oklahoma State – There is no shortage of disappointment in Stillwater after the Cowboys finished 2009 with a 9-4 mark. Last season was supposed to Oklahoma State’s year to make something happen. Now the ‘Pokes are starting 27-year-old Brandon Weeden at QB in an offense that OC Dana Holgorsen had with him at Houston last season. That Cougars’ attack was the No. 1 offense in the nation in 2009, by the way. Don’t look for the defense to do much, returning just four starters. A 7-5 campaign would be a positive considering the overhaul, but 6-6 is more realistic.
6: Baylor – I want to believe that the Bears are going to be the surprise of the Big XII this season. I really do. But they are pinning everything on Robert Griffin to return to full strength after injuring his right knee last year. Griffin will help an offense that was just awful to watch last year (342.9 YPG, 85th nationally). Baylor also has to figure out how to fix a defense that was 94th, allowing over 405 yards per game in ’09. Art Briles’ squad does have winnable against some scrubs like Sam Houston State and Rice. What stinks for Baylor is that they face one of the tougher division in college football and that means they’ll wind up around 5-7.
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