Predicting the Pac-10
By Judd Hall
If there was any league that saw a changing of the guard last season it was the Pac-10. Southern California has had its run of the conference, having won at least a share of the championship since 2002 before last season. That allowed the Ducks to make plans for Pasadena last January. Now that USC can’t win the conference or go bowling (thanks, Reggie Bush), who will reign supreme in 2010?
1: Oregon – Chip Kelly started his tenure as the Ducks’ head coach on a high note with a Rose Bowl berth after starting with a sucker punch. Things didn’t get better for Kelly during the offseason after having to dismiss starting quarterback Jeremiah Masoli from the program in full. There is, however, plenty to like about Oregon this year. LaMichael James won’t be on the field for the season opener, but is one of the better rushers in the Pac-10. And Nate Costa appears to be the right choice to replace Masoli under center. That doesn’t even cover a deep defense that brings back eight starters. The Ducks do have to make trips to USC and Oregon State, but those are the only games that could damper hopes in Eugene. This team has no excuse not to go 10-2.
2: Stanford – He might be a “Michigan Man,” but Jim Harbaugh has endeared himself to the Palo Alto faithful after a 6-3 record in Pac-10 play. And there is no reason to think they can’t improve again in ’10. Andrew Luck will be the main focal point of the Cardinal attack with Toby Gerhart in the NFL. The defense will be getting set into a new 3-4 setup to take advantage of linebackers like Shayne Skov and Chase Thomas. Road trips to Notre Dame, Oregon and Washington are tough tests. But the expectations should be set for a 9-3 campaign.
3: Oregon State – Last year ended with a horrid loss to BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl, but that won’t dampen spirits for the Beavers. Oregon State brings back nine starters on the attack, highlighted by running back Jacquizz and wide receiver James Rodgers. That should make things a little easier for Ryan Katz, who replaces Sean Canfield under center. Eight players come back on defense, but that might not be a good thing since they were 84th nationally against the pass (235.1 YPG). Mike Riley’s team doesn’t have it easy this year with road trips to TCU and Boise State in non-conference play. The plus side is they do get USC and Oregon at home in what should be an 8-4 record at the worst.
4: Southern California – Things are very different in Los Angeles this year as Pete Carroll has moved onto the NFL’s pastures of Seattle. Enter Lane Kiffin to run the program, who has shown that Bobby Petrino has better lasting power. This year will be a rough transition time with just five starters back on offense and another six on defense. Matt Barkley isn’t a given to be the starter this season under Kiffin with Mitch Mustain waiting patiently. The schedule opens up nicely with four teams that are in a world of hurt (Hawaii, Virginia, Minnesota, and Washington). But they are heading to Oregon State and Stanford. Not easy games and will push this team down to no worse than a 7-6 mark.
5: California – Every year we hear that the Golden Bears are finally going to turn the corner and win the Pac-10. And every year they find new and exciting ways to fail gloriously. There is some reason for hope with nine starters back on offense. Kevin Riley is back to run the offense under center and Shane Vereen taking over for Jahvid Best in the backfield. Cal also gets seven starters back on defense. While that sounds good, you have to realize this is a unit that was owned by Oregon, USC and Washington. That won’t be good against those same clubs this year as they slop around to a 6-6 finish.
6: Arizona – The good news for the Wildcats is that they’re returning an offense that has 11 veterans coming back after back-to-back bowls for the first time since the late 90s. Nick Foles is a quality field general to run the Sonny Dykes-style offense even though the mastermind behind the attack is now at Louisiana Tech. An early home date with Iowa is a tough one for the ‘Cats, but they are built for a strong start to the year. Closing the campaign with Washington, Stanford, USC and Oregon means this is a team is primed for a setback at 6-6.
7: Washington – The Huskies finished just shy of being bowl eligible last year, but that didn’t stop folks from extolling praise upon Steve Sarkisian. And there will be even more excitement with Jake Locker heading an offense that brings nine other starters besides himself. Defensively, Washington leaves a lot to be desired in the trenches. That lack of strength up front will hurt against teams like BYU and Nebraska to start the year in a ballsy set of non-conference affairs. Then you have to take into account that they are heading to USC, Arizona, Oregon and California. It might not be the next level that everyone was expecting, but a 6-6 mark in 2010 would be a great step for this program.
8: Arizona State – It might be time to say that Dennis Erickson is ready to get his last drink to go in Tempe this season. The Sun Devils have lost 18 of their last 29 games with Erickson running the show. Arizona State’s problems stem from an offense that ranked 90th nationally last season. A revamped attack has plenty of folks optimistic with either Steven Threet or Brock Osweiler taking over as top signal caller. This team does have a stout defense that ranked 13th in total defense last season. And seven starters coming back on that defensive unit has to make some folks happy. Erickson pads the opening of the season nicely with games against Portland State and Northern Arizona to warm up for a trip to Madison for a date with the Badgers. Road tests against the Beavers, Huskies, Bears, Trojans and Wildcats lean ASU to finishing 2010 at 5-7.
9: UCLA – Rick Neuheisel has successfully sold the fact that the Bruins have to be bad before they can be good…even if it means you need three years of garbage to find daylight. UCLA’s offense is going to be employing a brand new “Pistol” offense to help them find some sort of a running game seeing that they were 97th on the ground. They do get a good shot at a season opening win in the “Little Apple” against Kansas State. Then they can get slapped around by the Longhorns two weeks later. Neuheisel proves prophetic about this team as the Bruins appear tailor made for a 3-9 record.
10: Washington State – What can be said about a team that never held a lead in regulation during the 2009 campaign? That’s what the Cougars managed to pull off last season. And sadly there is nothing to be said about Washington State except that Paul Wulff incredibly still has a job at his alma mater. Wazzu does have one of the more veteran clubs coming back in the Pac-10 (8 on offense, 9 on defense). Problem is they are from an offense that was 119th and a defense that was 120th (also known as “dead last”) nationally. This is the season that Wulff goes 0-12 and leaves in a blaze of failure.
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