Premium Super Bowl Selections With Analysis

R.J. White

KANSAS CITY @ TAMPA BAY | 02/07 | 6:30 PM EST
UNDER 56.5
This total has the chance to close as one of the biggest numbers in Super Bowl history, and at 56.5, it sits just below the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl in 2017 that went Over. But here's the thing: that game stayed Under during regulation and was well on its way toward cashing the Under late in the third quarter before the Patriots' improbable rally. If you count that one as an Under in regulation, the last seven Super Bowls with a total of 50+ have stayed Under dating back to 2001. We just typically don't see fireworks early on as teams stay tight after all the pageantry leading up to kickoff, and I think the value is certainly on the Under as a result.

KANSAS CITY @ TAMPA BAY | 02/07 | 6:30 PM EST
KANSAS CITY -3
The Bucs have put together an incredible run thanks in large part to their GOAT quarterback, but Tom Brady has also had his moments of struggle, throwing picks on three straight drives in the NFC title game and letting the Packers back in the door. The Chiefs have been absolutely dominant with Patrick Mahomes under center during the playoffs, erasing any worries about their ho-hum second half. Even in Tampa, I love the Chiefs to get the win thanks to a better overall offense, the best coaching staff in the league, and a defense that has come to play during the postseason. I don't mind laying 3 or 3.5, but the value will likely be on the moneyline if you wait.
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Larry Hartstein

KANSAS CITY @ TAMPA BAY | 02/07 | 6:30 PM EST
KANSAS CITY -3
Although the Chiefs won't have LT Eric FIsher to help slow the Bucs' fierce pass rush, tackles Mike Remmers and Andrew Wylie aren't going to be bludgeoned the way the Packers' tackles were last week. The Nov. 29 meeting in Tampa ended in a 27-24 K.C. win; it wasn't really close, though. The Chiefs rolled up 543 yards and led 27-10 entering the fourth quarter. Look for Frank Clark, who sacked Josh Allen twice, to have another big day in the Super Bowl as K.C. repeats -- and covers.
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Doug Knudson

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL)
10* GOY Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5

My Math Models Made Tampa Bay -1

The Question is, NOT who's the Better team, BUT who is the Hotter team?! To me, this game is approached differently then ANY other game I handicap! Researching the past 40+ Superbowls - I have found the hotter team is the single most important factor to predicting the Big Game ATS Winner - through my analysis and weighting the factors I use to determine who the "hotter" team is, ALL indicators are pointing towards Tampa Bay! Also my numbers spit out that the Superbowl has posted the WRONG Favorite - this all adds up to a - 10* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR!

>p>included some trends that also support this play - but again, the "Hotter" team angle and my Numbers are my #1 predictors!!

Teams with worse win percentages (including playoffs) have gone 13-1 ATS (92.9%) last 14 KC - 16-2 (89%) TB - 14-5 (74%)

The team that lost the regular-season game has won five of the last seven (KC beat TB 27-24)

TAMPA BAY is 6-0 ATS versus offensive teams - averaging >=6 ypp this season.(KC 6 ypp) TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS versus defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 ypp this season.(KC 5.7 ypp) TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS in all games where the total is greater than 49 this season. (SB Total 56.5) Teams that generated more yardage in the regular season have lost nine straight games SU and ATS. (KC 418 - TB 385) TB Coach Arians is 10-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less (TB +3) in all games he has coached since 1992.

What most stood-out on the injury report (the most important position on a football team) - KC minus OT Schwartz and Fisher Suh, Gholston and Pierre-Paul licking there chops!!
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Sean Higgs

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL) - 6:30 PM EST
Pick: Money Line: -165 Kansas City Chiefs Play Title: 5* Best Bet

Pick Analysis
Taking the CHIEFS. We had KC last year in the Super Bowl, will take them again here - on the ML. I really have no problem laying -3 -115, but something tells me the refs will be looking at Brady like he signs their checks. Especially as a home dog. Look. I faded both of these guys in Championship Sunday. That being said, I have no problem taking the favorite today. Brady Brady Brady. That is all anyone is talking about. Oh, will he retire if he wins. Guy is the greatest ever. If you had doubts, this season should all but seal that thinking up. Guy is unbelievable. KC though. I dunno. Reigning champs. They have basically played down to their opponents the last 2 months of the season before beating up on the Bills. I guess they can 'flip the switch' and turn it on when needed. We saw last year in this game there is absolutely zero quit in this team. As well as the TB defense has played, I thought SF had as good or better defense. And we saw how that worked out. I also think we have a HC edge, Andy Reid. Guy finally got credit when he won it all But he has been more than solid his career. Let's not forget how great he is off with extra rest and prep time. Guy is cashing over 80%. No starstruck Mahomes looking at Brady. He has faced him in AFC Championship Game. No intimidation factor. The defenses will get a little chippy here. I won't be shocked at an under. I think the game plays out slow to start before things open up. Special Teams of KC i think is a difference maker.. If you are in the NY/NJ/PA region, I will be at the Fan Cave at Bally's Wild West Atlantic City. Come by for a drink or bite to eat. Grab a shirt and make some money. 5* Best Bet KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
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Marc Lawrence

NFL Super Bowl Release - Sunday Feb 7

NFL - 3* Game 102 - Buccaneers (+3.5)

Edges - Buccaneers: Head coach Bruce Arians is 11-1-1 ATS at home as a non-division dog in his NFL career, including 7-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a double-digit win; and quarterback Tom Brady is 20-4 SU at home in the postseason in his NFL career, including 10-0 against greater than .705 opponents, and Brady is 12-1-1 ATS at home when not favored, including 9-0-1 ATS versus foes with at least one loss on the season … Chiefs: Head coach Andy Reid is 1-8 ATS as a road favorite in his NFL career when coming off consecutive wins and facing a foe coming off consecutive SUATS wins, including 0-5 SUATS as a favorite of fewer than 4.5 points; and quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 0-3 as a road favorite versus winning foes coming off consecutive wins, as well as 0-2 ATS as a road favorite when the Chiefs are playing with a week of rest … We cement the call noting that Super Bowl teams with a lesser win percentage than their opponent are 13-1 ATS since 2004, including 13-0 ATS when not coming off a championship game win of 20 or more points. In addition, teams coming off a SU underdog win in their championship game are 14-4-1 ATS since 1980 when facing an opponent not coming off an underdog win, including 8-2 SU and 10-0 ATS since 2002. With that, we recommend a strong 3* play on Tampa Bay. Thank you, enjoy the game, and good luck as always.
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IC

7-Unit Play. #102. Take Under 56 Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Suday @ 6:30pm est)

We roll with the Under here between these two teams. We won the Super Bowl last year, we won the 7* Selection last week on the Chiefs and the goal this week, as in all weeks, is just to have a winning week. For our winning week this week, let's aim for the Under here and you might be able to get a better line as the week goes on as most of the public will be on the Over. I get it that everyone wants to take the Over but we cannot ignore the fact of a couple things. For starters, this is KC defense is led by Coach Steve Spagnuolo who is a fantastic DC coach and he used to be the head coach if you remember of the New York Giants. This is a coach that has seen it all. He knows Tom Brady very well from being up in New York and facing the Patriots and has been in the league forever as well. Tom Brady also quietly threw a couple interceptions at Green Bay and this KC defense is vastly underrated. KC held Cleveland to 17 points and Cleveland could not run on this team at all, they had 18 yards in the first half of rushing. I am not a fan of the Tampa Bay rushing game and I think KC can keep them in check straight up and they will load up the backside to prevent Brady from being able to beat them and let Tampa Bay's running game try to beat them. I also think Tampa Bay will do the same with Mahommes and let KC's rushing game try to beat them and not allow KC to have a lot of passing lanes as they will play back. I think both these defensive coordinators are going to force the opposing offenses to have long sustaining drives. This KC defense held Atlanta's high octaine offense late in the season to 14 points which very few teams could do late (ask the Raiders or Vikings) and this Tampa Bay defense is fantastic at causing turnovers as well and when you put it all together, I think this game will be of slower complexion rather than the high octane offensive showdown that many expect. Look for this game to go Under.

2-Unit Play. Total Rushing Yards for Tom Brady Under 0.5 Yards (-140)

Tom Brady has 6 total yards all year in 19 games. This is a guy that throws the ball away when someone is literally 2 yards away from him because he understands what he means to his team and he understands he can make it up and he is not like a Mahommes who is going to extend the play by any means. Look for this to go Under here.

2-Unit Play. Total Rushing Yards for Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 87.5 Yards (-105)

I simply do not trust that much in the Tampa Bay rushing attack. Between Fournette and Jones, and the fact that Coach Steve Spagnuolo is the DC of KC, I simply cannot see Tampa Bay having huge success in the rushing attack. This team is quite competent in stopping the rush - look at what they did to Cleveland and Buffalo and I have faith that this Tampa Bay front line will be exceptionally talented and get after it here adn they will have success stopping the Run.
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THE PREZ

17-6 NFL Run: 5% Main Event & 10Props
Game: (101) Kansas City Chiefs at (102) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date/Time: Feb 7 2021 6:30 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -3.0 (-120)

KC likes to give teams a fighting chance. They let Buffalo go up 9-0 to start the game and everyone remembers last year’s playoff run, with KC playing from behind in every game and by double digits. What this says to me is KC is bored and can beat any team by any score on any day they want. Sure, they lose a few games here and there, but it has to be hard to get up for every single game. We know for sure they will get up for the Superbowl. Okay up until the Buffalo game, KC hadn’t covered the line in 9 straight games. So, what: none of these lines were -3 and none of them were in a game that was for all the marbles. This team has shown over and over again, when they need D stops, they get it, when they need to score, they score. I have never seen a team like this in my betting life. They simply can do whatever they want, whenever they want to whoever they want.

Now they have a Brady led TB team and well there was a time, when I never bet against TB12, but this is not one of them. Sure, they are rolling right now and over the last 6-7 games, their Offense has come alive. Everyone is talking about TB’s D as being really good. Blah Blah Blah – this team is #1 against the rush in the league, but #21 against the pass. Who do you think they are playing: A Jerome Bettis lead Stealer team that sets everything up from the run. NOPE – they are playing the best passing team in history of football. People are talking about the TB pass rush – oh please let them rush Mahomes and see what happens. If TB’s pass rush was so good, then why are they 21st in the league against the pass. Sure, they are a good D, but they are not the 85 Bears. They are just a decent all-round defense in a year where defense has become the forgotten word.

KC is never -3. Okay almost never. They were -3 vs the Bills and covered that and then -2.5 against the Saints 5 games ago and covered that. The bottom line for me, is if I can get KC at a FG or less, I would likely take them against the Pro Bowl team. I know I sound like a KC fanatic, but I am not. I don’t care who wins or loses football games. I am not a fan of any NFL team. All I care about is who covers and KC will cover 3 against anyone. At this moment in time, KC has better everything on offense and are impossible to cover. Did you know that KC’s pass D is better than TB’s by 10 yard a game and they are basically tied for points allowed. I think KC’s defense doesn’t get the credit it deserves and keep in mind, they are on the field a lot, given how quick KC can score and how slow other teams try play against KC.

So we are getting 2 teams with very similar Defenses and both with really good offenses. I am going to take the Baby Goat as the next 15 years will be about him and not about TB12. The torch will literally get passed on Sunday and I think KC wins this game easy. I would have no issue if you bet this game on the Alternate line of -9.5 +175 if you like. I don’t see this game coming down to the last drive. I see a bored eKC team finally putting all the pieces together and blowing out the TB Bucs.

Play is good to -4
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OSKEIM SPORTS

Game: (101) Kansas City Chiefs at (102) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date/Time: Feb 7 2021 6:30 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.0 (+100)

Tampa Bay is ranked No. 1 in the NFL in Football Outsiders ("FO") weighted and total DVOA following its triumph over Green Bay in the NFC Championship game. The Buccaneers' win over Green Bay at Lambeau Field is made more compelling by the fact that the Packers rank No. 2 in the league in FO's weighted and total DVOA. Remember Tampa Bay's convincing double-digit win over New Orleans in the Divisional Round of the playoffs? The Saints are second in the league in FO's total DVOA after excluding Week 17 (several starters did not play).

Tampa Bay's journey to the Super Bowl required victories over two of the best teams in the NFL (Saints, Packers). Consistency has defined Tampa Bay's success this season as the Buccaneers have ranked in the top three of FO's DVOA since Week 4 of the regular season. In contrast, Kansas City ranks 5th in both weighted and total DVOA despite its blowout win over the Bills in the AFC Championship game.

Which team is more reliable in protecting a fourth quarter lead? The Chiefs' DVOA dropped substantially this season when defending a late lead of more than a touchdown, whereas Tampa Bay's DVOA increased significantly with a lead of 9-plus points in the fourth quarter.

Tampa Bay Offense Up 9+ in Q4: 25.0% (12th)
Tampa Bay Defense up 9+ in Q4: -57.0% (2nd)
Additional metrics further demonstrate that Tampa Bay is the better team in this game. The Buccaneers' have the better red zone offense (5th vs. 10th), red zone defense (19th vs. 32nd), short yardage rushing offense (1st vs. 32nd) and net penalty yards (+17 YPG vs. -11.8 YPG). Tampa Bay limited six opponents to season-low or second-low yardage this season; the Chiefs limited just two opponents to the same.

Both teams faced six common opponents (and sites) this season: Tampa Bay went 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS (+428 net yards) whereas the Chiefs went 5-1 SU and 1-4-1 ATS (-53 net yards). With respect to special teams, Tampa Bay placekicker Ryan Succop is a perfect 12-for-12 on postseason field goals and 17-of-18 on extra points. Chiefs' kicker Harrison Butker is 8-for-10 on field goals but 32-of-34 on extra points.

Kansas City starting left tackle Eric Fisher sustained an Achilles injury in the AFC Championship game and is unlikely to play on Sunday. Fisher's absence is significant in that he had played in 95% of snaps on the season and was called for just one holding across seventeen-plus games. Fisher is worth 0.14 points to the point spread according to my projections, but that value does not take into account the fact that starting right tackle Mitchell Schwartz has been on injured reserve since Week 11 with a back injury.

Tampa Bay owns the No. 6 defensive pressure rate in the league behind one of the most talented defensive lines in Ndamukong Suh, Vita Vea, Jason Pierre-Paul and William Gholston. Tampa Bay starting linebacker Shaq Barrett accounted for three of the team's five sacks on Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Championship game and will feast on a Kansas City offensive line that ranks 23rd in pressure rate allowed.

Kansas City finished 8-10 ATS this season, becoming just the fifth team to reach the Super Bowl with a losing against-the-spread record. The Chiefs have consistently underperformed relative to the betting market as they are a money-burning 2-8 ATS in their last ten games. Pundits will point to the fact that Kansas City head coach Andy Reid is 17-11 ATS since 2003 with extra time to prepare. However, Reid is a more modest 5-5 ATS with Kansas City when getting at least thirteen days between games.

Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady has covered all five games with at least thirteen days between games, including the Week 14 game this season. Brady is 36-23 SU and 41-17-1 ATS as an underdog in his NFL career and has won six of his 9 Super Bowl appearances. The only other time Brady was installed as a Super Bowl underdog was in his first career appearance, a game in which he led the Patriots to an upset win over the Rams. Brady is 145-28 SU and 100-65-8 ATS at home in his career, including 12-1-1 ATS as an underdog.

Teams with the lower win percentage (Tampa Bay) are 10-4 SU and 13-1 ATS in the last fourteen Super Bowls. The team that is the higher playoff seed is just 2-14-2 ATS in the previous 24 Super Bowls. Super Bowl favorites are 25-25-3 ATS overall (1982 game was a pick-em), while underdogs are 13-6 ATS in the past 19 Super Bowls, including 9-4 ATS in the last thirteen.
Finally, Tampa Bay has covered each of the last three meetings with the Chiefs, including the Week 12 meeting this season. Grab the points with the Buccaneers and invest with confidence.
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Matt Severance

KANSAS CITY @ TAMPA BAY | 02/07 | 6:30 PM EST
UNDER 56
ANALYSIS: It now looks like rain will not be a factor Sunday, but this total still feels too high -- in perfect conditions in Week 12, the teams combined for 51 points. The Under is 6-1 in the past seven Super Bowls with a total of at least 50 and that lone Over took overtime to get there.

KANSAS CITY -165
ANALYSIS: It might be the easy way out to bet a moneyline here, but I simply refuse to wager on a game sitting right on 3 points (to avoid the push) and the spread isn't going to change a half-point in either direction by kickoff -- highly recommend bettors buy a half-point in either direction you are leaning. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has flustered Tom Brady in the past by generating pressure not so much on the edges but up the middle. Spags' teams are 3-2 vs. Brady's teams dating to the Chiefs defensive coordinator's days with the Giants when Big Blue knocked off the unbeaten Patriots in SB XLII. That KC defense flustered Brady for three quarters earlier this season.
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Kenny White

KANSAS CITY @ TAMPA BAY | 02/07 | 6:30 PM EST
TAMPA BAY +3
ANALYSIS: Tampa Bay is 7-0 overall and 5-2 ATS since losing to Kansas City in Week 12. The Buccaneers' power rating increased by 1.5 points with the return of Vita Vea in the NFC Championship Game. The Chiefs lost a point when LT Eric Fisher went down. The Chiefs have the advantage at quarterback, but the Buccaneers have the better offensive and defensive lines. My power ratings have Kansas City at 110.5 and Tampa Bay at 109 plus one point for the home field advantage.
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Jeff Hochman

KANSAS CITY @ TAMPA BAY | 02/07 | 6:30 PM EST
TAMPA BAY +3
ANALYSIS: This game will mark the 14th time in Super Bowl history that we'll be getting a rematch from the regular season and if the first 13 games are any indication, the Chiefs could be in for a fight. In Week 12, the Chiefs defeated the Buccaneers 27-24. This is notable because the team that won the regular-season game has gone 6-7 straight-up in the Super Bowl rematch. No AFC team has ever beaten an NFC team twice in one season. The Chiefs will be without their two best tackles, which is significant because the Chiefs' offensive line is ranked 14th while Tampa Bay's is ranked 9th at Football Outsiders. Take the points with the home underdog.
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Hank Goldberg

KANSAS CITY @ TAMPA BAY | 02/07 | 6:30 PM EST
TAMPA BAY +3
ANALYSIS: I originally liked Kansas City, but after doing some more analysis I really think all of the shuffling on the offensive line will be a huge factor and hurt the Chiefs. Three linemen -- the left and right tackles and right guard -- will be playing out of position. That's not good going up against Tampa Bay's front seven, which has five Pro Bowl-caliber players. On the other side of the ball, Kansas City's run defense ranked 21st in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (122.1). With Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones II, the Buccaneers can exploit that. I've got Tampa Bay.
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Adam Silverstein

KANSAS CITY @ TAMPA BAY | 02/07 | 6:30 PM EST
KANSAS CITY -3
ANALYSIS: The line for the first home-game Super Bowl in history has that host team -- with Tom Brady at QB -- as a field goal underdog. That is no mistake. The Chiefs being down a pair of tackles is the only reason this is still at -3, and I expect it to be up to -4 prior to kickoff. Kansas City has not been a great ATS team this season, but it is 5-1 ATS when favored by six points or less. It has the advantage at QB with Patrick Mahomes (due to his youth and mobility) and at the offensive playmakers positions. The Bucs may keep the Chiefs on edge with their stellar defense in the first half -- remember the 49ers last year? -- but I trust Andy Reid (off a bye) and KC's coaching staff (where it also has an edge) to get the job done in the end and repeat as Super Bowl champions.
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