Friday's Tip Sheet
By Judd Hall
Fans and players alike aren’t real keen on the preseason as a whole. How can anyone be excited about seeing your favorite stars playing a total of two series? And you can’t forget about how real the injuries can be in these games that don’t count in earnest.
Week 3 is different than the other exhibition contests. This is the dress rehearsal game for many of the teams in the NFL. That means we’ll get to see the starters last at least the first half.
While that is good information to know, bettors want something geared towards their needs. They want to be able to focus on a trend that can fatten their bankroll in preparation for the regular season.
One trend that is apparent is that home teams are doing quite well during the preseason as evidenced by a 22-10 straight up record. As dominant as they’ve been on home turf, they’re only 17-14-1 against the spread after two weeks of play.
Will the home teams be able to cover the spread on Friday? Let’s take a look at both games on the schedule.
New England at Washington – 8:00 p.m. EDT, CBS
The preseason normally means next to nothing for the Patriots. However, this year was different because of Tom Brady and how he would fare since having a year off. Brady was solid in his first outing, completing 10 of 15 passes for 100 yards and a pair of scores in just over a quarter of playing time in Philadelphia. He was roughed up by the Bengals last week with just four completions on eight attempts for 57 yards and was sacked once.
It would appear that Brady is going to be getting the brunt of the work on Friday night, playing at least the first and second quarters. Kevin O’Connell looks like he’s won the backup job over Andrew Walter after playing the majority of Week 2 against Cincinnati.
Washington hasn’t given us too much insight as to what we can expect in this tilt. The Redskins couldn’t attempt a field goal, let alone find the endzone, in a 23-0 decision in Baltimore. Their defense didn’t do all that much to impress in letting the Ravens rack up 500 total yards.
Jim Zorn has said that all four QBs on the roster (Jason Campbell, Todd Collins, Colt Brennan, Chase Daniel), but Campbell will handle the entire first half of play. The real battle here is between Brennan and Daniel, who are in a dogfight for the No. 3 spot.
Most sportsbooks have listed the Patriots as 3 ½-point road favorites with a total of 37 ½ for this contest.
Bill Belichick has never cared much for the preseason portion of the schedule. However, his teams do play up to the moment for the dress rehearsals. New England is 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven preseason Week 3 battles they’ve had since 2002.
Washington is 2-1 SU, but 1-2 ATS in its three home games under Jim Zorn’s tutelage.
Green Bay at Arizona – 10:00 p.m. EDT
The betting shops have installed Arizona as a 3 ½-point home “chalk” with a total of 41. Pretty standard line for a preseason game, but the total certainly points to us having a high scoring affair.
Arizona gave up the most passing touchdowns last season (36), which is more than a little odd for a Super Bowl participant. The Cards have held their own against the pass during the preseason though as they’ve given up just one touchdown through the air. They have surrendered 390 total passing yards so far.
Aaron Rodgers could have a field day against the Cards’ secondary on Friday. He’s completed 13 of 19 passes for 200 yards and three touchdowns during the postseason.
It also helps that the Packers have seen the ‘over’ go 10-4 during Mike McCarthy’s tenure as head coach.
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What Bettors Need to Know: Friday's NFL Preseason Action
By VICTOR RYAN
New England Patriots at Washington Redskins (+3.5, 37.5)
Starter/injury Report
The Redskins will be without several big-name starters due to injuries.
Cornerback Carlos Rodgers will not play because of a lingering calf injury and will be replaced in the starting lineup by Fred Smoot.
Running back/kick returner Rock Cartwright is still suffering from a groin injury that has plagued him most of training camp, and isn’t expected to play. Devin Thomas, a second-year pro who returned kicks at Michigan State, will replace Cartwright on special teams.
Defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth and wide receiver Santana Moss are both listed as questionable and will be game-time decisions.
The first-team offense continues to be a big concern for the Skins. The unit has yet to score a touchdown through two preseason games and quarterback Jason Campbell has looked particularly awful. He was just 1-of-7 for 10 yards in last week’s 17-13 win over Pittsburgh.
Zorn said the plan is to play the first-unit as long as it takes for them to find a consistent rhythm.
Chase Daniel and Colt Brennan, who are in a heated battle for third-string quarterback, will come in after Campbell.
The Patriots have gone into regular season mode and are expected to have close to their full complement of players, according to head coach Bill Belichick. He said his players are “getting used to the scouting report…the different ways we break down our opponents and get into more of a weekly preparations schedule, as opposed to a training camp practice routine.”
Tight end Ben Watson, who had been out with an undisclosed injury, returned to practice this week and is expected to play.
Line movement
The Patriots have remained 3.5-point road favorites and the total has dipped slightly from 38 to 37.5.
Trends
The Redskins are 3-4 ATS and the over/under is 2-5 in preseason games under Jim Zorn. The Patriots are 19-17-3 ATS in the preseason and their over/under record is 16-26 with Belichick on the sidelines.
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-3, 42.5)
Starter/injury report
It’s been a near picture-perfect preseason so far for the undefeated Packers and the news on the injury front is limited. The biggest question mark surrounds backup quarterback Matt Flynn. The second-year signal caller suffered a bruised shoulder in the Packers win over Buffalo last week and is listed as questionable.
Starter Aaron Rodgers is expected to play the entire first half and if Flynn is unable to go, Brian Brohm will take over under center.
The Packers defense, which seems to be adjusting well to the 3-4 scheme installed by new defensive coordinator Dom Capers, could gain the services of linebacker Nick Barnett for the first time this preseason. Barnett returned to the practice field this week for the first time since having ACL surgery last November.
The Packers will be without first-round rookie pass rusher Clay Mathews (hamstring) and defensive tackle Justin Harrel also appears unlikely to play.
The high-octane offense that led the Cardinals to last year’s NFC championship has been M.I.A so far this August. The Cardinals have just 16 points and one touchdown so far and the first-team offense has yet to reach the end zone.
The Cardinals offense is trying to get on track possibly without the services of a pair of productive receivers. Anquan Boldin is questionable (hamstring pull) and Steve Breaston also might not play because of a knee injury.
Arizona first-round pick Beanie Wells is expected to make his long-awaited debut after showing no ill effects from an injured ankle this week at practice. Reports out of Arizona have described the running back’s performance this week at practice as “explosive.”
Line movement
The Cards opened as 3-point favorites and have been bet to -3.5 at most wagering outlets. The over/under opened at 42.5 and has been bet down to as low as 41 at some shops.
Trends
The Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in preseason games under Ken Whisenhunt with a 5-5 over/under mark. The Packers have gone 7-7 ATS under Mike McCarthy and the over/under is 10-4.
New England (1-1 SU and ATS) at Washington (1-1 SU and ATS)
Tom Brady leads the Patriots into FedEx Field to take on the Redskins as the preseason continues with Week 3 games, when coaches typically have their starters on the field for the longest stretches prior to the regular season.
New England mustered just a pair of first-half field goals on Aug. 20, losing 7-6 at home to Cincinnati as a 6½-point favorite. Brady was in for two possessions, leading a 57-yard drive that ended with a field goal on the Pats’ first drive. Tonight, Brady and the rest of the starters are expected to play into the second half, giving the quarterback his biggest test yet on his surgically repaired knee. Brady will be followed by Kevin O’Connell, with rookie Brian Hoyer perhaps seeing some mop-up time.
Washington held off Pittsburgh 17-13 Saturday to cash as a 3½-point home chalk, as the Steelers played without injured QB Ben Roethlisberger. Coach Jim Zorn said he expects to play his starters at least two quarters, and QB Jason Campbell may need the extra work after going just 1-for-7 for 10 yards over three possessions last week. Zorn said his three backup QBs – Todd Collins, Colt Brennan and rookie Chase Daniel – will also see action. Last week, the undrafted Daniel threw two TD passes in the second half to guide Washington’s comeback win.
New England is now 1-5 SU and ATS in preseason action since the start of last year, and it is 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in its last six exhibition road games. The Patriots are 5-2 ATS in Week 3 of preseason play the last seven years, including a 41-0 home rout of the Redskins in 2006.
Despite last week’s win, the Redskins are still just 6-12 SU and ATS in their last 18 exhibition outings, including 2-4 SU and ATS at home. Washington is also in a 1-3 SU and ATS rut in Week 3 action, not including a 2007 contest at Baltimore that was canceled in the third quarter because of lightning. The Redskins’ last three Week 3 defeats have been by a combined score of 116-6.
The under is 3-1 in New England’s last four preseason road contests, and the under is 5-1 in Washington’s last five August games overall and 5-0 in its last five at FedEx Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and UNDER
Green Bay (2-0 SU and ATS) at Arizona (0-2 SU and ATS)
The Packers aim to keep their perfect preseason going when they travel to the desert to take on the defending NFC champion Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium.
Green Bay dumped Buffalo 31-21 Saturday as a three-point home chalk, scoring touchdowns on its first three possessions behind QB Aaron Rodgers (8 of 9, 98 yards, 2 TDs) en route to a 21-0 lead. Coach Mike McCarthy said Rodgers and the starters will play the entire first half and perhaps into the third quarter. Matt Flynn is the No. 2 QB, but he is doubtful with a minor shoulder injury, so fellow second-year pro Brian Brohm will finish out the game after Rodgers exits.
Arizona lost to San Diego 17-6 Saturday giving three points at home, getting just two Neil Rackers field goals in the first and third quarters. QB Kurt Warner (6 of 13, 80 yards, 1 INT) was in for four possessions, but the Cards’ only score came entirely due to LaRod Stephens-Howling’s 89-yard return of the opening kick. Warner and the starters are expected to play the first half, with Matt Leinart replacing Warner. It’s uncertain if third-string QB Brian St. Pierre (back) will play.
The Packers, who haven’t had a winning preseason since 2002, have now cashed in four straight games in August (3-1 SU), but they’re still just 6-8 SU and 7-7 ATS in three-plus years of preseason play under McCarthy, including 2-4 SU and ATS on the road. Additionally, Green Bay is 2-4 SU and ATS in Week 3 over the past six summers.
Arizona has now lost all five preseason home games since Ken Whisenhunt took over (1-4 ATS) and is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine as a preseason chalk, including 0-4 ATS the last two-plus years. However, unlike Green Bay, the Cardinals have been a strong play in Week 3 over the last six years, cashing in all six games while going 4-2 SU.
The over is 10-4 in Green Bay’s 14 preseason contests under McCarthy, with the last three on the highway topping the total. Meanwhile, Arizona has stayed low in its first two preseason games after a 7-3 “over” stretch in August competition.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA
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Playing-For-Keeps
By SportsPic
Washington Redskins play host to the New England Patriots in the third preseason warm-up for both teams. RedSkins spanked 23-0 in it's opener at Baltimore bounced back in week-two nipping Steelers 17-13 as 3.5 point home favorites giving the squad a 9-15 SU / ATS record the past eight-plus years in August along with a 10-14 'Over' Under' record. Although the victory was welcomed, the offense which crash in the second half of 2008 costing Redskins a playoff spot, is still far from fixed. QB Jason Campbell has been dismal this August completing just 5-of-20 for 58 yards with the first-string offense yet to score a touchdown. Patriots like Redskins have split their first two August matchups but in this case Pats #1 QB has shown little effect of the devastating knee injury from last season going 10-of-15 for 100 yards, 2 TD's in the win over Eagles and 4-of-8 for 57 yards in a loss to the Bengals. In keeping with week-three tradition both clubs will give first-stringers plenty of work Friday night but it's Bill Belichick's troops with the huge edge over Jim Zorn's squad. Consider laying the small number on Patriots (-3) knowing Belichick is always out to rack up a 'W' no matter the situation even preseason. Despite last years complete failure in preseason (0-4 SU & ATS) Belichick's troops still command a solid 20-18 (19-16-3) mark in August including 3-0 SU & ATS as road favorites of 3.5 or less. Adding fuel Brady and company want to erase the bad taste of last weeks loss, they're 5-2 (5-1-1 ATS) the past seven years during dress-rehearsal week. Betting on the NFL in August is a completely different exercise than betting on the same sport a month later.
Tips and Trends
New England Patriots at Washington Redskins
Patriots (-3.5, O/U 37.5): All eyes remain on Tom Brady as he comes back from serious knee surgery. Brady is 14-of-23 for 157 yards and two touchdowns with one interception in the Patriots’ two preseason games. “This week will be a really important step for us,” Brady said. “We’ll really get a good idea of where we’re at as a team after this game.” Brady and the Patriots are expected to attack Washington with four and five receiver sets targeting their two biggest threats, Randy Moss and Wes Welker. The Patriots also are expected to test the Redskins with running backs, Fred Taylor and Lawrence Maroney. The Patriots want to show more offense after losing last week at home to Cincinnati, 7-6. New England’s starting defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown during its opponent’s last nine possessions. The Patriots are expected to game plan, too, on defense utilizing both a 4-3 and 3-4 defense.
The Patriots are 26-16 to the under in their last 42 preseason games with Bill Belichick as the coach.
Key Injuries - Running backs Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk are doubtful and cornerback Shawn Spring is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 21 (Side of the Day)
Redskins: Redskins coach Jim Zorn said he plans on playing his starters for at least two quarters. It may turn out to be more if Washington’s offense doesn’t look much improved. The Redskins have yet to produce a touchdown in two preseason games with their first-string offense. Quarterback Jason Campbell has looked terrible. He was 1-for-7 for 10 yards in last week’s 17-10 victory against Pittsburgh. The Redskins were shut out in their first preseason game, 23-0, by Baltimore. Campbell was 3-for-6 in that game for 38 yards. The Redskins are averaging just 250 yards of total offense in their two preseason games. Campbell could be in danger of losing his starting spot to veteran Todd Collins. Rookie Chase Daniel is chasing Colt Brennan for the No. 3 quarterback position after throwing two touchdown passes in the victory against Pittsburgh. Cornerback Carlos Rogers (calf) won’t play.
The Redskins have gone under in 5 of their seven preseason games under Jim Zorn.
Key Injuries - Cornerback Carlos Rogers is out.
Defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth and wide receiver Santana Moss are questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 17
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals
Packers: Green Bay has looked sharp in posting preseason home victories against Cleveland 17-10 and Buffalo 31-21. This is the Packers’ first road game, though, and it’s a 9 p.m. Green Bay start time. Aaron Rodgers has led Green Bay’s first-string offense to touchdowns in five of six possessions, going 13-for-19 passing for 200 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. Rodgers is expected to play at least the first half and possibly into the third quarter where he will be replaced by Brian Brohm. Second-string quarterback Matt Flynn is not likely to see any action because of a right shoulder injury. Brohm has struggled for the second straight season and the former No. 2 draft pick is in danger of being cut. The Packers are breaking in new starters at center, right guard and right tackle. Their defense is making the transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4.
The Packers have covered their past 4 preseason games.
Key Injuries - Linebacker Clay Matthews (hamstring) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 20
Cardinals (-3.5, O/U 41): The high-scoring Cardinals offense has managed to average just eight points during two preseason games. Their first-string offense, featuring quarterback Kurt Warner, has yet to produce a touchdown. The Cardinals hope to change that by using this game as their dress rehearsal. They plan to play their starters at least one half, if not into the third quarter. The Cardinals are 0-2 having lost to Pittsburgh 20-10 and to San Diego, 17-6. Rookie running back Chris Wells could see his first action, after missing the first two preseason games because of an ankle injury. However, Arizona isn’t likely to have its No. 2 and No. 3 wideouts as Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston aren’t expected to play because of injuries. The Cardinals’ first-string defense hasn’t yielded a point in two quarters of play. The Cardinals’ secondary appears much improved after surrendering a league-worst 36 touchdown passes last season.
The Cardinals are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in preseason under Ken Whisenhunt.
Key Injuries - Wide receivers Anquan Boldin (hamstring) and Steve Breaston (knee) are doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (OVER - Total of the Day)
New England
QB Tom Brady will play the 1st half.
Washington
HC Jim Zorn confirmed the offensive starters will play the entire first half. QB Jason Campbell is expected to play the 1st half, Colt Brennan and Chase Daniel will split snaps in the 2nd half.
Green Bay
The healthy starters will play the first half, and coaches will decide at halftime whether they'll open the third quarter.
Arizona
Starters will play the entire 1st half.