What Bettors Need to Know: Friday's NFL Preseason Action
By VICTOR RYAN
Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 34)
Bring on the backups
A new offensive coordinator will be at the controls for the Bucs after the surprise firing of first-year coach Jeff Jagodzinski Thursday. Quarterbacks coach Greg Olson will take over the offense.
First-round pick Josh Freeman will start at quarterback for the Bucs, which ranks 19th in total offense and 31st in passing during the preseason. Josh Johnson is expected to relieve. Neither Byron Leftwich, who was named the team’s regular season starter this week, nor Luke McCown are expected to play.
The Bucs will also be wading deep in the running back depth chart as Earnest Graham, Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams are all expected to be held out.
The Texans will be back on the field just four days after losing to the Minnesota Vikings 17-10 Monday night. Starting quarterback Matt Schaub will not play. In his place under center will be Dan Orlovsky, Rex Grossman and Alex Brink.
Grossman will be seeing his first action since straining a hamstring in the Texans’ preseason opener vs. the Chiefs.
Linebacker Brian Cushing, the Texans’ first-round pick who has not played a snap this preseason because of a sprained knee, will again be held out despite practicing and proclaiming himself 100 percent fit.
Trends
The Bucs are 1-2 ATS and the over/under is 2-1 under first-year coach Raheem Morris. The Texans are 7-6-2 ATS and the over/under is 10-5 under fourth-year coach Gary Kubiak.
Weather
The forecast for Tampa calls for scattered thunderstorms with a high of 87 degrees.
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 36)
Reserve the Right
The Cowboys’ reserves have struggled throughout the preseason, but they’ll get a chance to right the ship this week. Coach Wade Phillips said he plans to hold the starters out, but that could prove easier said than done given the number of injuries to the Cowboys rookie class.
The Cowboys reserves were outscored, 28-3, in the preseason opener at Oakland after the starters presented them with a first-quarter lead. Last week, the starters handed the reserves a 10-3 first-half lead vs. the San Francisco 49ers, but the backups responded by allowing San Francisco to score 10 points in the final 5:30 of a 20-13 loss.
Minnesota Coach Brad Childress also indicated the Vikings starters will not play, which includes Brett Favre. Despite his late arrival to training camp, Childress believes Favre is ready for the season opener. Tarvaris Jackson, John David Booty and Sage Rosenfels will split time under center.
The Vikings are 3-0 ATS this preseason and have had at least 350 yards of total offense in each game.
Line Movement
The line has held steady at Minnesota -3, but the total has been bet down from 38 to 36.
Trends
The Vikings are 10-5 ATS and the over/under is 6-9 under Childress. The Cowboys are 4-7 ATS and the over/under is 7-4 under Phillips.
San Francisco 49ers at San Diego Chargers (-4, 37)
California Love
Starting quarterback Shaun Hill and the rest of the first-unit is expected to play briefly for the 49ers, which are 3-0 SU and 1-2 ATS this preseason. Alex Smith and Nate Davis will take most of the snaps for San Francisco.
The 49ers are the top rushing team in the league this preseason in large part to the significant contributions of third-round pick Glen Coffee (38 carries, 230 yards) and free agent Kory Bid (33 carries, 144 yards and 3 TD).
San Diego will rest its starters, coach Norv Turner said this week. The biggest position battle for the Chargers appears to be at running back, where veteran Michael Bennett, fourth-round rookie Gartrell Johnson and fullback Mike Tolbert are all fighting for roster spots. Bennett has had a particularly strong preseason with touchdowns in each of the Chargers’ previous three games.
Defensive tackle Travis Johnson, a former first-round pick who was obtained from the Texans in a trade earlier this week, will not play because of a sports hernia he has been battling all preseason.
Line Movement
The Chargers opened as 3.5-point favorites and are now -4 at most betting shops. The total has held steady at 37 at most books.
Trends
The Chargers are 6-4-1 ATS and the over/under is 6-5 under third-year coach Norv Turner. The 49ers are 1-2 ATS and the over/under is 1-2 under Mike Singletary.
Weather
The forecast for San Diego calls for sunny skies with a high of 83 degrees.
NFL PRESEASON
Houston (1-2 SU and ATS) at Tampa Bay (1-2 SU and ATS)
The Buccaneers and Texans close out the preseason against each other for the eighth straight year, with Tampa looking to avoid its first losing exhibition campaign since 2006.
Tampa Bay came up on the short end of a 10-6 decision to the Dolphins on Thursday in a lightning-delayed pick-em contest at home. Despite the defeat, veteran Byron Leftwich did enough to win the starting quarterback job over Luke McCown. Neither Leftwich nor McCown are expected to play tonight, as new coach Raheem Morris rests his regulars and will give all the snaps to rookie QB Josh Freeman and second-year pro Josh Johnson.
Houston fell 17-10 to Brett Favre and the Vikings on Monday, failing as a 3½-point home favorite. Starting QB Matt Schaub injured his ankle in the first half, and although he played several series with the injury, he will not be available tonight. That means backup Dan Orlovsky will start and be followed by Rex Grossman, who missed the last two games with a hamstring injury. Alex Brink is the No. 4 quarterback and will see mop-up duty.
Despite losing two of three this month, the Bucs are still on a 7-4 SU and ATS run in preseason action. They’re also 9-4 (8-5 ATS) in their last 13 exhibition home tilts, and they’ve cashed in four straight as a preseason chalk.
The Texans are 6-1 ATS on the road in preseason play since Kubiak took over in 2006 – all as an underdog – including a 16-10 win as a three-point pup over Kansas City three weeks ago.
Tampa Bay and Houston have met in the preseason finale every year of the Texans’ existence, with the Buccaneers going 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS.
In summer action, the over is 8-3 in Houston’s last 11 (4-1 on the road) and 7-3 in Tampa Bay’s last 10 (3-1 at home). Finally, the total has alternated in all six preseason meetings between these squads, with last year’s contest staying well below the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and OVER
Dallas (1-2 SU and ATS) at Minnesota (3-0 SU and ATS)
For the fourth straight summer, the Cowboys and Vikings wrap up preseason play by clashing against each other, this time at the Metrodome, where Minnesota will try for its first unbeaten exhibition campaign since 2001.
Dallas suffered its first preseason home loss since 2002 on Saturday, falling 20-13 to San Francisco as a 6½-point favorite. QB Tony Romo went 11-for-17 for 125 yards and led the Cowboys to a 10-3 first-half lead, but he also threw an interception. Romo and the majority of Dallas’ starters – including WR Roy Williams – likely won’t play tonight. That means veteran Jon Kitna will start under center and be followed by rookie Rudy Carpenter, as fellow first-year QB Stephen McGee is out with a knee injury.
Adrian Peterson scampered 85 yards on the first play from scrimmage on Monday in Houston, and Minnesota never looked back in posting a 17-10 upset win as a 3½-point road ‘dog. Brett Favre played into the third quarter and went 13 of 18 for 142 yards and a TD, but the veteran QB who is nursing a rib injury will not play tonight, and the same holds true for Peterson and the majority of Minnesota’s starters. Either Sage Rosenfels or Tarvaris Jackson will start, with second-year pro John David Booty being third off the bench.
The Cowboys have lost all five preseason road games under Phillips, going 0-5 ATS and dropping all five by eight points or more, including a 31-10 loss at Oakland in Week 1. Dallas has also failed to cover in four straight as a preseason underdog, but it is on a 4-2 ATS roll in Week 4 of the preseason, including last year’s 16-10 win over Minnesota as a three-point home favorite.
The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last six exhibition outings, and since 2004, they’re 7-4 SU and ATS in preseason games at the Metrodome and 7-4 ATS as a preseason chalk. They’re also 4-1 ATS in Week 4 of the exhibition slate the last five years, the lone non-cover coming last season in Dallas.
Minnesota has stayed under the total in four straight preseason games, but the Cowboys have topped the total in seven of their last 10 preseason starts and five of their last six exhibition road games, including a 23-14 loss in Minnesota in 2007.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
San Francisco (3-0, 1-2 ATS) at San Diego (1-2, 1-1-1 ATS)
The Chargers cap exhibition play against the 49ers for the eighth straight year, with San Francisco going for its first perfect preseason this decade and San Diego trying to avoid its first losing summer since 2002.
San Francisco followed up a pair of last-second, one-point home wins over Denver (17-16) and Oakland (21-20) with Saturday’s 20-13 upset victory at Dallas as a 6½-point underdog. New starting QB Shaun Hill played despite a sore back and was mediocre, going 9-for-17 for 79 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions.
Coach Mike Singletary said if Hill does start against San Diego, he will only see very limited action. With backup Alex Smith still nursing an injury and with veteran Damon Huard having been waived this week, look for rookie Nate Davis (10-for-15, 132 yards vs. Dallas) to see the bulk of the time under center tonight.
San Diego built leads of 21-10 and 24-20 against Atlanta last week, but gave up the winning touchdown in the waning seconds, losing 27-24 and pushing as a three-point road underdog. Coach Norv Turner said most of his starters will be on the field for 12 to 15 snaps, but RB LaDainian Tomlinson, who participated in the first two preseason contests, will sit out for the second straight week. Also, Philip Rivers has not played in the preseason finale since becoming the team’s starting QB in 2006, and if that trend continues tonight, veteran backup Billy Volek will start and play the first half with third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst finishing up.
The 49ers snapped a three-game preseason ATS losing skid with Saturday’s win at Dallas, but they’re still just 2-10 (5-7 ATS) in their last 12 summer roadies. Meanwhile, despite losing to the Seahawks at home in Week 1, San Diego is still 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS) in exhibition home games since 2005.
The Chargers are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS the last six years against the 49ers in Week 4 play, including a 20-17 win as a three-point road underdog last August. The teams have met every summer since 1996.
The over is 4-2 in San Francisco’s last six exhibition tilts, 8-5 in San Diego’s last 13 and 4-1 in the last five summer battles between these instate rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO and OVER
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