Saturday Showdowns
By Judd Hall
VegasInsider.com
There is no shortage of football for bettors to watch on Saturday with nine dress rehearsals on the slate. Two of the matchups have piqued my interest as Week 3 draws closer to the end. The Chargers take on the Falcons in a pair of playoff contenders. Meanwhile, the Jets and Giants will be playing for bragging rights in the battle for the Big Apple.
San Diego at Atlanta – 8:00 p.m. EDT, CBS
The Falcons haven’t played a match at home this preseason, but that hasn’t mattered as they’ve won and covered their first two games thus far. Yet Mike Smith is more concerned with seeing his club getting off to a fast start and if they have learned from their mistakes of a week ago.
Atlanta is coming off of a 20-13 victory against the Rams as a 2 ½-point road “chalk.” While the final score comes off as a solid win, the stats indicate otherwise. Matt Ryan’s backup, D.J. Shockley looked pretty bad in completing five of his 12 passes for 63 yards. Shockley also got sacked and picked off twice by St. Louis.
You can’t really fault Shockley for the Falcons’ body of work in Week 2. The Dirty Birds were able to convert just five of their 10 third downs against the Rams. That is definitely not an improvement on the six of 14 conversion rate they had against Detroit in the preseason opener.
One player we should expect a lot from is Michael Turner. The Falcons’ top rusher has picked up 128 yards on 13 carries with a pair of scores. There are no reports stating he’ll be in for a series or two, so it would appear that he’s going to be in for at least the first half.
San Diego bounced back last Saturday with a 17-6 win against the Cardinals as a three-point road pup.
The Chargers got a nice effort out of Philip Rivers in Week 2 as he connected on five of his seven pass attempts for 116 yards against Arizona. Although, there has to be a little concern with him getting sacked four times by the Cards.
Defensively, San Diego’s defense was on its game by not giving up a touchdown last week. They also picked off two passes, one of which was turned into a score for the Bolts.
Most of the betting shops have made the Falcons slight 2 ½-point home favorites with a total of 42.
That total is awfully high for my tastes considering that Smith has proven in his short time in Atlanta that focus is on the defense during the preseason. That point is given credence by the fact that the ‘under’ is 4-2 during his six exhibition tilts.
The Falcons have done extremely well in dress rehearsal games, going 5-0 straight up and against the spread during the last five preseasons. The ‘under’ has a slight 3-2 advantage for total players.
Norv Turner has shown over his last two stops as an NFL head coach (’04-’05 Oakland, ’07-present San Diego) that he wants to win this tilt. He is 3-1 SU in the four dress rehearsals he’s recently helmed. Bettors have been able to fade him in that time as well since Raiders and Chargers failed to cover the spread in those four games.
New York Jets at New York Giants – 8:00 p.m. EDT
I think we should all thank Kellen Clemmens for participating in the Jets’ quarterback search. New York’s elder statesman (if can call a three-year player “elder”) lost the starting gig to Southern Cal rookie Mark Sanchez after two weeks of preseason action.
The reports out of the Jets’ training camp were that the race between the two signal callers was 50-50. And when Clemmens can’t do anything to discern himself from a guy fresh out of college, he’s not going to be No. 1 on the depth chart.
Sanchez showed he can overcome a bad start last Monday in New York’s 24-23 defeat as a three-point road ‘dog to the Ravens. His first pass of the night was intercepted for a touchdown by Baltimore’s Haloti Ngata. Sanchez completed only one of his first five passes for eight yards. His last drive no doubt helped his cause by connecting on two of his three passes for 35 yards and a touchdown.
The Giants aren’t going to be fielding their top defense on Saturday night as linebacker Antonio Pierce (foot) and cornerback Aaron Ross (hamstring) are listed as “out.” That won’t help a defensive unit that is allowing an average of 324 yards in two exhibition games.
Eli Manning will be under center for the first half of the game, with David Carr coming on in relief. There is a battle between Andre Woodson and Rhett Bomar for the third-string job. It’s safe to say that this game will dictate who gets that spot on the team.
The sportsbooks have posted the Giants as 3 ½-point home faves with the total coming in at 37. While the line is holding true for the game, you can shop around for a total as low as 36 ½.
This preseason tradition has gone in favor of the Jets as they hold a 6-2 SU record, but just 4-3-1 ATS. Tom Coughlin has done well in this rivalry as of late, going 2-1 SU and ATS in the last three games.
vegasinsider.com
Saturday's NFL Preseason Action
By DAVID JONES
Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions (+3, 40)
The Colts (4-16 in last 20 preseason games) are expected to go with their starters until early in the third quarter Saturday. It appears that Curtis Painter will be the backup at QB. Veteran backup Jim Sorgi has returned to practice but will likely be held out until next week.
Among the other key players who aren't expected to play against the Lions are OL Ryan Lilja, DB Kelvin Hayden, DB Bob Sanders and K Adam Vinatieri.
While the starting QB spot is still open in Detroit, Daunte Culpepper (83.0 QB rating) will open the game under center against the Colts. Matthew Stafford (43.4 QB rating) will also play with first-team personnel. Each QB will play a quarter and a half.
On the injury front, RB Kevin Smith and both starting cornerbacks are questionable to play against the Colts.
New Orleans Saints at Oakland Raiders (+2.5, 41)
The Saints are expected to play their starters until early in the third quarter against the Raiders.
New Orleans is a little banged up in the backfield. Pierre Thomas could be out until the start of the regular season while Reggie Bush is questionable to play Saturday.
Oakland head coach Tom Cable has indicated that his starters will play the first half and, possibly, into the third quarter against the Saints. With only one series under his belt this preseason, veteran QB Jeff Garcia is set to play most of the second half Saturday.
On defense, the Raiders are still looking to finalize starting spots at linebacker and cornerback as the regular season approaches.
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 36)
Buffalo's no-huddle offense will be without Terrell Owens (toe) for the third straight game Saturday. The new offense will try to get their running game (2.9 yards per carry in preseason) on track against the Steelers.
Dick Jauron is expected to play his starters through the first half against Pittsburgh. Rookie DL Aaron Maybin is set to make his Bills debut in the contest.
After missing last week's game, Ben Roethlisberger is back in the fold for Pittsburgh. Head coach Mike Tomlin has said that his starters will play at least the first half against Buffalo.
Roethlisberger could be missing a couple of weapons in his return to action. Running back Willie Parker and WR Santonio Holmes are questionable for the game.
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-1, 37.5)
Tennessee will play their starters through at least the first half Saturday.
The Titans will keep a close eye on their wide receivers against the Browns after Nate Washington's hamstring injury this week. He could miss the start of the regular season.
The Browns will mirror Detroit's gameplan in regards to their quarterbacks this week. Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn will get equal playing time with the first-team offense against Tennessee but head coach Eric Mangini hasn't decided on a starter for Saturday's matchup.
San Diego Chargers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 42)
San Diego head coach Norv Turner has said that his starter could play up to three quarters Saturday. However, a couple of big offensive guns could be out of the lineup.
Turner is hesitant to expose RB LaDainian Tomlinson (12 carries, 28 yards in preseason) and TE Antonio Gates to the turf field surface at the Georgia Dome.
Atlanta's Mike Smith will also have his starters on the field into the third quarter Saturday. After missing last week's game, backup QB Chris Redman will return to action this week for the Falcons.
On defense, recent first-round choice Jamaal Anderson is trying to retain his starting spot on the defensive line heading into the regular season.
Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 39)
The Seahawks are expected to have their first-team units on the field through at least the first half against Kansas City. The game could mark the Seattle debut of the NFL's 11th all-time leading rusher, Edgerrin James.
The offensive line is a concern after last week's injury to starting center Chris Spencer (out 4-6 weeks) and the uncertain status of Walter Jones for the regular season.
Kansas City will go with their first-team offense until at least the first series of the third quarter. While QB Matt Cassel (92.9 QB rating in preseason) made some progress last week, RB Larry Johnson (2.8 yards per carry) is trying to bust loose in exhibition action.
On defense, the Chiefs are still looking for their starting nose tackle in their 3-4 defensive formation.
New York Jets at New York Giants (-3, 36)
With a tropical storm (70 percent chance of rain) heading to the Meadowlands on Saturday, Mark Sanchez could have something else to deal with besides the elite defensive line of the Giants. On a short week, Jets head coach Rex Ryan is unlikely to send Sanchez and his other starters out beyond the first half.
The Giants had hoped to use the traditional dress rehearsal for the regular season to further develop their inexperienced wideouts but the weather may alter those plans.
The defense will be without key veterans Antonio Pierce and Aaron Ross Saturday.
Baltimore Ravens at Carolina Panthers (-3, 34.5)
With their third game in 10 days, Baltimore (second in NFL in total offense and defense in preseason) hasn't been able to install a complete gameplan for this week's matchup.
Special teams will be a focal point Saturday, with starting spots at kicker and kick returner still up for grabs.
Without any road games until the second week of the regular season, the Panthers can unpack for awhile. Head coach John Fox has indicated that his starters are likely to play at least through the first half.
Offensive standouts Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are banged up for Carolina. Smith and Williams are in better condition to play than Stewart Saturday.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 38)
Shaun Hill has indicated that he is ready to go on Saturday despite suffering a back strain in practice this week.
San Francisco is expected to play their starters into the third quarter against Dallas. Veteran Damon Huard would likely start at QB, if Hill is unable to go.
The Cowboys should have their starters on the field through at least the first half. Wide receiver Roy Williams is out of action after suffering a shoulder injury in practice this week.
New Digs
The Dallas Cowboys will look to build on the fine outing in last week's victory over Tennessee. Suffering a 31-10 defeat in Oakland to open practice season the Cowboys returned home to their new facility promptly spanking Titans 30-10 as quarterbacks Tony Romo, Jon Kitna, Stephen McGee went a combined 32-of-42 for 355 yards, two TD's with Marion Barber, Felix Jones notching 2 more TD's for the ground crew. Meanwhile, 49ers off to a 2-0 start defeating both Denver, Oakland by a single point but dropping both contests at the betting window have themselves a tough one Saturday. QB Shaun Hill named the opening-day starter could see limited action due to a sore lower back, QB Alex Smith is sidelined with a sprained thumb leaving Damon Huard and rookie Nate Davies to handle snaps most of the game. Laying heavy lumber (>6.5) on home teams is dangerous at the best of times in preseason as homies are just 7-10 against-the-oddsmaker. However, in this case sticking with Dallas in their new-digs could pay dividends. 'The Boys' are 10-0 (8-3 ATS) the past five-plus years at home in August and 49ers are a mind boggling 1-9 (4-6 ATS) on the highway in preseason including dropping the last four as seven or more point underdogs losing by an average of 14 PPG. It's well to mention one of those 49er's DD losses came in Dallas back in 2006.
Indianapolis (1-1 SU and ATS) at Detroit (1-1, 0-2 ATS)
Peyton Manning and the Colts hit the road for the first time this preseason when they travel to Ford Field to take on the Lions in Week 3, traditionally the week that starters see their most playing time before the regular season begins.
Indianapolis dropped Philadelphia 23-15 on Aug. 20 as a 3½-point home underdog, with Manning throwing a pair of first-quarter TDs – including a 76-yarder to Reggie Wayne – and finishing 10 of 14 for 167 yards on three possessions. First-year coach Jim Caldwell said Manning and the starters will definitely go the entire first half today and perhaps into the third quarter. Jim Sorgi (hamstring) likely will have to sit out again, meaning Curtis Painter will relieve Manning and finish out the second half.
Detroit lost to Cleveland 27-10 last Saturday as a 3½-point road pup, falling behind 20-0 in the first quarter. No. 1 overall pick Matthew Stafford, making his first start, went 5 of 13 for just 34 yards and threw an INT on his first pass. Rookie coach Jim Schwartz will send veteran Daunte Culpepper (10 of 16, 86 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs last week) out first this week, and though Stafford won’t enter until the second quarter, Schwartz said both QBs will see time with the first-string offense, including their top wideout targets.
Despite the upset win over Philadelphia, Indianapolis is still just 4-16 SU and 6-14 ATS in preseason play since 2005, going 2-6 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road during this stretch. It also has failed to cash in seven of its last 11 as a preseason pup. On a positive note, the Colts cruised to Week 3 dress-rehearsal victories over the Saints (27-14) and Lions (37-10) in 2006 and 2007, but last year they got smacked 20-7 by the Bills as a 5½-point home chalk.
The Lions cashed in all four preseason games last year, but if you take that away, they’re just 4-14 ATS in exhibition play since 2003. Last year, Detroit pummeled Cleveland 26-6 as a 2½-point home favorite in Week 3 of the preseason, ending a four-year SU and ATS losing skid in Week 3 action.
Indianapolis saw a four-game preseason “under” streak end last week, but the under is still 6-1 in its last seven August road outings. The under is also 5-2 in Detroit’s last seven preseason contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
New Orleans (2-0 SU and ATS) at Oakland (1-1, 2-0 ATS)
The Saints look to remain perfect in the preseason when they travel to the Oakland Coliseum to face the Raiders in a non-conference contest.
New Orleans drubbed Houston 38-14 last Saturday as a three-point road ‘dog, with QB Drew Brees leading two TD drives before exiting, and running back Mike Bell racked up 100 yards and a TD on just 10 carries. Brees and the starters should be around much longer today, playing at least the first half and perhaps into the third quarter. Backup QB Mark Brunell likely will follow Brees this week, with Joey Harrington (concussion) finishing up if he’s well enough to play.
Oakland gave up 18 fourth-quarter points in losing to San Francisco 21-20 last Saturday as a three-point road pup. JaMarcus Russell (7 of 11, 76 yards, 1 TD) played four possessions in the contest. Coach Tom Cable said Russell and the starters will play the first half and possibly into the third quarter. Jeff Garcia, who went just one possession last week, will spell Russell and play most of the second half, with Charlie Frye and Bruce Gradkowski possibly seeing mop-up time.
New Orleans has now won and covered five straight preseason road games, but it is just 3-9 ATS as a preseason chalk since 2002. However, New Orleans has been impressive in Week 3 the last two years, going 2-0 SU and ATS on the road while outscoring opponents 43-7.
Oakland crushed the Cowboys 31-10 in its preseason home opener two weeks ago, improving to 6-1 SU and ATS in summer home games since 2006. But the Raiders are just 2-4 ATS in their last six when catching points in August, and they’re 2-4 SU and ATS in dress-rehearsal battles the last six years, including a 24-0 home loss to the Cardinals last year as a three-point Week 3 home favorite.
Oakland has topped the total in each of its first two preseason contests after seeing the under go 13-4 the previous four years in summer action. The under is also 9-4 in New Orleans’ last 13 preseason affairs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
Tennessee (2-1, 1-1-1 ATS) at Cleveland (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Browns aim to take steps to settle their quarterback controversy when they play host to the Titans, who are already in their fourth exhibition contest, having opened play in the Hall of Fame Game.
Cleveland coasted past Detroit 27-10 last Saturday laying 3½ points at home, putting up 20 first-quarter points, including a Josh Cribbs 84-yard punt return for a TD. QB Derek Anderson (8 of 13, 130 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) started and played the first quarter, leading three scoring drives before giving way to Brady Quinn (3 of 5, 29 yards).
If new coach Eric Mangini continues his preseason trend, Quinn will get the nod tonight, but Mangini said both QBs will see significant time with the rest of the first-team offense, which will play into the second half. Brett Ratliff and/or Richard Bartel will finish out the game at QB.
The Titans got drilled at Dallas 30-10 as a 3½-point underdog on Aug. 21, failing to score in the second half and giving up 16 fourth-quarter points. QB Kerry Collins (8 of 11, 55 yards, 1 TD) played the entire first half, and coach Jeff Fisher said he expects his starters to play “a little bit more than last week.” Vince Young should follow Collins, with Patrick Ramsey finishing it out.
The Browns snapped an 0-5 SU and ATS preseason losing skid (0-3 SU and ATS at home) with the rout of Detroit. Cleveland is 4-1 ATS (2-3 SU) over the past five summers in Week 3.
The Titans have failed to cover in three straight preseason road games, and although they’re 8-3 SU in their last 11 exhibition games overall, they’re only 5-5-1 ATS. Also, Tennessee has lost four of its last five Week 3 contests (2-3 SU).
The over is on an 8-2 tear for Tennessee in preseason play (3-0 this year), but the Browns have stayed low in four consecutive August games, and the under is 8-3 in their last 11.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Buffalo (1-2, 1-1-1 ATS) at Pittsburgh (1-1 SU and ATS)
The defending Super Bowl-champion Steelers get their franchise quarterback back for their dress-rehearsal contest at Heinz Field, where they will face the Bills.
Minus QB Ben Roethlisberger (foot injury), Pittsburgh lost at Washington 17-13 last Saturday getting 3½ points. However, Roethlisberger will start tonight, and coach Mike Tomlin said the two-time Super Bowl winner won’t be limited in any way. Tomlin said his starters will go the entire first half, and he’ll evaluate at halftime to determine whether the first-teamers play in the third quarter. Charlie Batch will replace Roethlisberger, followed by rookie Mike Reilly. QB Dennis Dixon (shoulder) will not play.
Buffalo fell to Green Bay 31-21 last Saturday as a three-point road pup, getting shut out 24-0 in the first half. QB Trent Edwards (7 of 11, 45 yards, 1 INT) went into the second quarter and is expected to go the entire first half, if not more, tonight. He has yet to lead a TD drive in three preseason contests, as the Bills opened the summer playing in the Hall of Fame Game. Edwards should be followed by Ryan Fitzpatrick, with Gibran Hamdan in a mop-up role.
Pittsburgh is 1-3 SU (2-2 ATS) in Week 3 over the past four years, and it lost to Buffalo 24-21 as a one-point chalk in Week 2 last August in Toronto. However, the Steelers have won their last four home preseason affairs (3-1 ATS).
Buffalo snapped an 0-4 SU and ATS slide in Week 3 action last summer, hammering the Colts 20-7 as a 5½-point road underdog. The Bills are on a 6-1 ATS roll (4-3 SU) in true exhibition road games, and they are on a 10-2-2 preseason ATS tear from the underdog role.
The under is 13-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 15 preseason games (2-0 this year), but the over has hit in all three of Buffalo’s games this August, after a 6-2 “under” run the past two preseasons.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH
Baltimore (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at Carolina (0-2 SU and ATS)
A pair of playoff teams from last year tune up for the regular season when the Ravens head to Bank of America Stadium to meet the Panthers.
Baltimore held off the Jets 24-23 Monday night but failed to cash as a three-point home favorite, letting first-half leads of 14-0 and 21-7 slip away in getting outscored 16-3 in the second half. Second-year QB Joe Flacco (8 of 18, 120 yards) and the rest of the starters could go all the way through the third quarter tonight, coach John Harbaugh said, with Troy Smith relieving Flacco. John Beck and/or Cleo Lemon might get some fourth-quarter snaps.
Carolina, on the road the first two weeks this month, lost at Miami 27-17 as a 2½-point ‘dog last Saturday, leading 14-10 at the half before getting outscored 17-3 in the second half. QB Jake Delhomme (5 of 7, 47 yards) was in for just three first-quarter possessions, but coach John Fox said the plan this week is for Delhomme and the starters to play into the third quarter. Josh McCown should spell Delhomme, with Matt Moore and Hunter Cantwell possibly getting a little action.
Not including a 2007 home game versus Washington that was canceled in the third quarter because of lightning, the Ravens have lost consecutive Week 3 preseason games both SU and ATS, and both were on the road. Baltimore has been a mediocre preseason unit dating to 2004, going 11-10 SU and 10-11 ATS, including 4-5 SU and ATS on the road, with this being its first road game of 2009.
Meanwhile, Carolina is on a 4-2 SU and ATS roll in Week 3, including last year’s 47-3 destruction of Washington as a three-point home favorite. The Panthers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 home exhibitions, but like Baltimore, they have been a middling unit at the betting window, going 10-12 ATS in August since 2004, including 5-5 ATS at home.
The under is 12-5 in Baltimore’s last 17 preseason contests (4-2 “under” since Harbaugh took over last season). On the flip side, the total has gone high in both of Carolina’s exhibitions this year and is on a 5-1 streak dating to the 2008 preseason opener, following a 6-2 “under” run in 2006 and 2007.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA
N.Y. Jets (0-2, 1-1 ATS) vs. N.Y. Giants (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Jets shoot for their third consecutive preseason win over their rivals when they clash with the Giants in their annual Week 3 meeting in the Meadowlands.
Despite throwing an interception that was returned for a touchdown in Monday’s 24-23 loss at Baltimore as a three-point underdog, Mark Sanchez was named as the Jets’ starting quarterback this week. Sanchez is slated to play the first half tonight with the rest of the starters. New coach Rex Ryan said he’s promised Harvard rookie QB Chris Pizzotti the first series of the second half. Pizzotti figures to be followed by backup Kellen Clemens, with rookie Erik Ainge possibly seeing late fourth-quarter action.
The Giants offense managed just 170 yards in last week’s 17-3 loss in Chicago as a three-point road underdog. Coach Tom Coughlin said he expects his starters, including QB Eli Manning, to play into the third quarter, but added that it depends on how many snaps they get in the first half. David Carr and possibly Andre Woodson will follow Manning under center.
The Jets and Giants meet in Week 3 of the exhibition season every year. The Jets have won the last two battles, including a 10-7 victory as a three-point favorite in 2008. The last six preseason clashes have been decided by a total of 22 points, with all six by eight points or fewer, and the favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five August meetings.
With Monday’s last-minute backdoor cover at Baltimore, the Jets improved to 6-3-1 ATS since the start of the 2007 preseason, including 4-0 ATS as an underdog. Meanwhile, although the Giants are just 3-4 ATS in their last seven as a preseason chalk, they’ve covered in three straight exhibition games when laying more than three points.
The under is 9-5 in the Giants’ last 14 summer affairs (1-1 this year), and the last eight Jets-Giants preseason battles have stayed below the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Seattle (2-0 SU and ATS) at Kansas City (0-2 SU and ATS)
The Seahawks look to maintain their preseason dominance when they visit the Chiefs, whose preseason struggles have continued under new coach Todd Haley.
Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck tossed a pair of first-half scoring TD passes in last week’s 27-13 rout of Denver as a 3½-point home favorite, giving the Seahawks’ their eighth straight preseason spread-cover (7-1 SU). Hasselbeck will be under center to begin this game against the Chiefs and likely play into the third quarter, though new coach Jim Mora didn’t specify his playing-time plays. Behind Hasselbeck are veteran backup Seneca Wallace, third-year pro Jeff Rowe and rookie Mike Teel, all of whom threw passes against Denver.
Kansas City blew a second-half lead in Minnesota last Friday, falling 17-13 as a three-point underdog. Haley said QB Matt Cassell, who is completing 58 percent of his passes for 114 yards and one TD through two games, will play through at least the first series of the third quarter along with the rest of the first-string units. Haley didn’t reveal his quarterback rotation after Cassel departs, but Tyler Thigpen and Matt Gutierrez took snaps with the first team on Thursday, meaning Brodie Croyle will probably be the odd man out tonight.
The Chiefs have lost 13 of their last 14 games, including six in a row (regular and postseason), and they continue to be a disaster in exhibition play, going 5-17 SU and 4-18 ATS since 2004. In addition, Kansas City has failed to cover in five straight preseason home games (1-4 SU), all as a favorite. Finally, K.C. is in a 1-5 SU and ATS slump in Week 3 of the preseason, getting outscored the last two years by a combined 54-7 in losing to the Saints (home) and Dolphins (road).
In addition to its 8-0 ATS run overall in August, the Seahawks are on an 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS roll on the road, and they’ve cashed in eight of their last 10 as a preseason pup. Also, Seattle is 5-1 SU and ATS the last six years in Week 3 action, including a pair of wins over the Chiefs (42-31 at home in 2003, 23-17 on the road in 2005).
The “over” is 14-6 in Seattle’s last 20 exhibition outings (10-3 last 13), including 6-2 in the last eight on the road. However, the Chiefs have stayed low the last two weeks after going 3-1 “over” last summer.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE
San Francisco (2-0, 0-2 ATS) at Dallas (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Cowboys try to build off last week’s impressive showing against the Titans when they entertain the 49ers in the second game at the brand-new Cowboys Stadium.
Dallas piled up 466 total yards, including 355 through the air, in last Friday’s 30-10 rout of Tennessee as a 3 ½-point home favorite. QB Tony Romo, who was efficient against the Titans (18-for-24, 192 yards), will play into the second half in this contest, followed by veteran Jon Kitna. Either Stephen McGee or Rudy Carpenter – both rookies – will finish up.
San Francisco has stopped a last-second two-point conversion try each of the last two weeks to preserve one-point home wins, beating the Broncos 17-16 in Week 1 and the Raiders 21-20 last Saturday, but the Niners failed to cover the spread in both games.
Earlier this week, new 49ers coach Mike Singletary announced that Shaun Hill beat out former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith for the starting quarterback job. Hill is expected to start tonight despite injuring his back this week, while Smith has been ruled out with an injury. Hill and the starters are expected to be on the field for at least the first quarter but probably not the entire first half. Once Hill departs, veteran Damon Huard and rookie Nate Davis with split the QB chores the rest of the way.
The 49ers have failed to cover in three straight August contests, and they’re 1-10 SU and 4-7 ATS in their last 11 preseason roadies. San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in Week 3 of the preseason the last six years (3-3 SU).
The Cowboys have won all five preseason home games under coach Wade Phillips (4-1 ATS), and since 2003, they’re 11-0-1 SU and 9-3 ATS at home in summer affairs. However, Dallas has failed to cash in consecutive Week 3 games, with its last dress-rehearsal win being a 17-7 home victory over the 49ers as a seven-point favorite in 2006.
The over has hit in seven of Dallas’ last nine preseason starts (2-0 this year), and the over is 6-3 in San Francisco’s last nine exhibition tilts (3-1 on the road).
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and OVER
San Diego (1-1 SU and ATS) at Atlanta (1-1, 2-0 ATS)
After starting the preseason with consecutive road games, the Falcons make their 2009 debut at the Georgia Dome when they host the Chargers, who hit the highway for the second straight week.
San Diego coach Norv Turner, whose starters played most of the first half in last week’s 17-6 upset win in Arizona as a three-point underdog, told his top units earlier this week to be prepared to play three quarters tonight. That includes QB Philip Rivers, though it’s unlikely that RB LaDainian Tomlinson – who is seeing his first preseason action since 2005 – will be on the field that long. Once Rivers departs, veteran backup Billy Volek will take over, with Charlie Whitehurst possibly seeing mop-up duty.
Atlanta bounced back from a last-second 27-26 loss at Detroit with a 20-13 win at St. Louis as a 2 ½-point road chalk, with QB Matt Ryan (7-for-8, 81 yards, 1 TD) having another fine outing. Ryan and the rest of the Falcons’ starters will play through at least the first series of the third quarter. Coach Mike Smith refused to reveal his QB rotation after Ryan departs, but expect D.J. Shockley and Chris Redman to get some action in the second half.
San Diego is now 4-1 SU and ATS as an August visitor since 2007, including cashing in three straight as a road underdog. The Chargers are 2-0 SU in Week 3 under Turner, but they failed to cover in both games (which were decided by a combined three points). Turner also went 0-2 ATS in Week 3 during his previous coaching stint with the Raiders, making his teams 0-4 ATS in his last four dress-rehearsal battles.
The Falcons, who covered as a three-point underdog in the one-point loss at Detroit in Week 1, are on an 8-2 ATS spree in August, going 3-1 SU and ATS at home during this stretch. Atlanta is also 5-0 SU and ATS in Week 3 of the preseason the last five years, outscoring the opposition 121-45.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
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New York Jets at New York Giants
Jets: The Jets enter this border rivalry on a short week having played an emotional game on Monday night against Baltimore, the former team of Jets coach Rex Ryan. The Jets have named rookie Mark Sanchez as their starting quarterback. Sanchez has thrown just 12 passes during preseason. His first pass against the Ravens was intercepted and returned for a touchdown. Sanchez finished 3-for-8 for 43 yards, including a 19-yard touchdown pass to running back Leon Washington. The Jets’ defense needs work after giving up 23 points to St. Louis in their opener and 24 points to Baltimore. Linebacker Vernon Gholston, the Jets’ No. 1 draft pick from a year ago, is slated to make his first NFL start. The 0-2 Jets hope to have back cornerback Darrelle Revis (hamstring) and nose guard Kris Jenkins (calf) along with kicker Jay Feely (groin), all of whom missed Monday’s loss.
The Jets are 1-9 to the under in preseason during Week 3 the past 10 years.
Key Injuries - Right offensive tackle Damien Woody (concussion) is questionable.
Running back Shonn Greene (ribs) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 16
Giants (-3, O/U 36): Giants coach Tom Coughlin is eager to have his team play better after last week’s embarrassing 17-3 loss to the Bears. The Giants could be the more motivated team. Coughlin would like to use this game as his dress rehearsal while also testing his team’s passing attack trying to see if he has a wide receiver who can replace Plaxico Burress. However, there is a 70 percent chance of rain, wind and even a tropical storm. That could alter the Giants’ game plan forcing more running plays. Eli Manning is 9-of-13 for 93 yards during preseason without a touchdown throw. Weather permitting Coughlin would like to see if receivers such as Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden can hook up well with Manning. No Giants wideout has more than three catches during preseason. The Jets nipped the Giants, 10-7, in last year’s preseason contest.
The Under has cashed in 12 of the Giants’ last 18 preseason games.
Key Injuries - Defensive tackles Jay Alford (knee) and Chris Canty (hamstring) are out.
Cornerback Aaron Ross (hamstring) is out.
Linebacker Antonio Pierce (foot) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 19 (Side of the Day)
San Diego Chargers at Atlanta Falcons
Chargers: The Chargers installed a mini game plan and piped in crowd noise during their Thursday practice as they prepare for this nationally televised matchup in the Georgia Dome. Chargers coach Norv Turner could use his starters up to three quarters. But Turner probably doesn’t have enough incentive to risk running back LaDainian Tomlinson and tight end Antonio Gates on artificial turf. Tomlinson hadn’t played in preseason for three straight seasons until this year. He has 12 carries in San Diego’s first two games for 28 yards. Gates missed three practices this week because of soreness. The Chargers bounced back from a 20-14 Week 1 loss to Seattle to beat the Cardinals on the road last week, 17-6. The Chargers are anxious to look at their No. 1 draft pick linebacker Larry English. He could make his NFL debut after missing San Diego’s first two games because of a hamstring injury.
San Diego has gone Under in 5 of its last seven preseason games.
Key Injuries - Running back LaDainian Tomlinson (groin) is doubtful.
Tight end Antonio Gates (ankle and Achilles) is doubtful.
Defensive end Jacques Cesaire (calf) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 20
Falcons (-3, O/U 42): Atlanta coach Mike Smith could have his starters play into the third quarter as they are expected to see their most extensive work of the preseason. Atlanta’s first-stringers were sharp last week in opening a 14-0 first quarter lead on St. Louis. Matt Ryan has had a strong preseason with a quarterback rating of 120.6. Ryan was 7-of-8 throwing for 81 yards last week, including a 14-yard touchdown pass to Tony Gonzalez. The Falcons out-rushed the Rams, 162-29, with Michael Turner carrying seven times for 65 yards, including a one-yard touchdown run. The Falcons defeated the Rams 20-13 after being nipped in Week 1 by Detroit, 27-26. This is Atlanta’s first home game. Backup quarterback Chris Redman is slated to relieve Ryan and probably play the rest of the game after missing last week’s action. Third and fourth-string quarterbacks D.J. Shockley and John Parker Wilson are not likely to play.
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in preseason under Mike Smith.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 23 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Colts starters to play with a purpose
indystar.com
The Colts will show off their front-line players for an extended time this afternoon in Detroit against the Lions. But it's unknown just how much they will actually reveal.
While in the midst of a preseason aimed at preparing the team for the Sept. 13 regular-season opener against Jacksonville, coach Jim Caldwell must wrestle with how much of the team's offensive and defensive playbooks to expose.
"Oftentimes teams will not show everything they are going to do during the course of the season," Caldwell said. "They don't want to give the opposition any prior notice."
Yet if a team has made changes during the offseason, it must give players every opportunity to acclimate themselves to those changes. The Colts have a new defensive coordinator in Larry Coyer and a new special teams coordinator in Ray Rychleski. On defense, the Colts have been more aggressive -- with more blitzing -- during the first two preseason games than in previous seasons.
"For the most part, if you're going to use something, you better practice it in this league," Caldwell said. "It's not something you can unveil the week that you're preparing for a team and expect to be good at it. There is a delicate balance."
So, how much do the Colts hold back during the preseason? "Not a whole lot. You really can't, not if you want to be really effective," Caldwell said.
Out of action
Eleven players are not expected to make the trip to Detroit because of injuries: defensive end Raheem Brock (hand), tight end Colin Cloherty (foot), cornerback Michael Coe (groin), wide receiver Sam Giguere (foot), safety Matt Giordano (groin), running back Mike Hart (ankle), cornerback Kelvin Hayden (hamstring), cornerback Jacob Lacey (undisclosed) and guard Ryan Lilja (shoulder). Safety Bob Sanders (knee) and place-kicker Adam Vinatieri (knee/hip) remain on the physically unable to perform list.
Etc.
QB Peyton Manning and center Jeff Saturday are featured on the cover of ESPN The Magazine's NFL preview issue that hit newsstands Friday. . . . Lions coach Jim Schwartz told Detroit media Friday that Daunte Culpepper will start at quarterback today and play into the second quarter, with rookie Matthew Stafford playing into the third.
Indianapolis
Starters will play the entire 1st half and a series of the 3rd quarter.
Detroit
Detroit Dante Culpepper will play the first quarter and a half and then Matthew Stafford will play the next quarter and a half. Drew Stanton will play the final quarter. Starters are expected to play 3 quarters.
New Orleans
Starters will play into the 3rd quarter
Oakland
Starters likely will play the first half and, perhaps, into the second half. QB Jeff Garcia is expected to play most of the 2nd half.
Tennessee
Starters will play into the 3rd quarter.
Cleveland
Starters will play into the 3rd quarter.
Buffalo
No Info
Pittsburgh
The starters will play at least the first half.
Baltimore
Starters are expected to play into the 3rd quarter.
Carolina
Starters are expected to play 3 quarters.
NY Jets
Starters are expected to play 3 quarters
Giants
No info
Seattle
starters are expected to play the entire 1st half.
Kansas City
The starters will play the entire 1st half plus a series in the 3rd quarter.
San Francisco
Starters are expected to play the first half against the Cowboys, with some continuing on into the third quarter.
Dallas
No info
San Diego
Starters are expected to play close to 3 quarters
Atlanta
The quarterback rotation will be different this week, according to Smith. Backup Chris Redman, who did not play against St. Louis, will get snaps against San Diego. Smith said that likely means one of the four quarterbacks won't play. With starter Matt Ryan scheduled to play significant time that means either D.J. Shockley or John Parker Wilson may not play. Offensive and defensive starters will play into the 3rd quarter.