Analysis On Thursday Night NFL Preseason Games
Sports bettors have one week left of preseason NFL football before the real season begins. Thursday night will be a busy one in the sports world, with 12 NFL games and the official kick-off to the NCAA football season, with a bunch of matchups highlighting their traditional Thursday night start to the new season.
As for the NFL betting during Week 4 of the preseason, these are very difficult games to handicap. Keep in mind most of the starters either won’t see any action, or a series or two at most. Week 4 games represent the last chance for many of the long-shots to make their respective teams.
Let’s take a look at two inter-conference games that still have a bit of mystique. The Eagles are in New York to face the Jets and the Browns take on the Bears in Chicago.
New York Jets: -3 – 37.5
BetRepublic Analysis:
The Jets and Eagles met last year in the last preseason game with New York winning 27-20.
Mike Vick gets his last shot at quarterback before he sits out for five games or longer depending on what Roger Goodell decides. QB Kevin Kolb gets the start and will play the first half with Vick starting the second half. Kevin Kolb played against the Jets in last year’s game, leading the Eagles on three consecutive scoring drives to open the game.
Kolb played the entire first half, going 13 of 21 for 138 yards. Kolb was selected in the second round of the 2007 draft and is supposed to be the quarterback of the future. That was before the Eagles signed Vick. Last week in limited time against the Jaguars Vick went 4 for 4 for 19 yards and rushed once for a yard. He will be looking to improve on that performance.
The Eagles have a surplus at wide receiver and it is likely that a starting-caliber wideout could be left off the final 53-man roster. The last spot will be a battle between Reggie Brown and Hank Baskett. The Jets are in need of a receiver and will be watching both with plenty of interest.
Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez was 13-of-20 for 149 yards and a touchdown against the Giants last week and will only see one series. That means Kellen Clemens, the fourth-year veteran, will likely see a majority of the action with Eric Ainge playing the second half.
The Jets will rest their entire starting backfield giving Jehuu Caulcrick and Danny Woodhead the majority of carries. The Jets are still trying to figure sort out their wide receiver package and David Clowney and Brad Smith will see lots of action fighting for the number three spot.
Defensively the Jets will rest most starters, but former first round draft pick LB Vernon Gholston will play most of the game as he is still trying to get untracked. Linebacker Calvin Pace will also play into the second half as he sits out the first four games for violating the league’s drug policy.
Chicago Bears: -3 – 36.5
BetRepublic Analysis:
This game is all about someone making a decision on a Browns starting QB. Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson were pretty even going into the last game against the Titans but Quinn might now have the edge.
Browns Coach Eric Mangini still has not decided on his starting quarterback even after Brady Quinn completed 11 of 15 passes for 128 yards, one touchdown and notched a 121.0 passer rating against a solid defense in Tennessee. Anderson went a respectable 7 of 11 passes for 77 yards. Mangini has not named his starter for the Bears game.
The Bears signed CB Rod Hood one day after being released from the Browns earlier this week and will look to impress his new team with a big game against his former team. The Bears are banged up in the secondary and either Quinn, Anderson or third string Brett Ratliff should produce some big numbers.
Bears QB Jay Cutler might play one series along with the other starters but most of the starters will take the night off after two solid games against Denver and the Giants.
Give the edge to the Browns in this one. Good luck with the games.
BetRepublic.com
Philadelphia (1-2, 0-3 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (1-2, 2-1 ATS)
The Jets look to continue their Week 4 preseason dominance of the Eagles and avoid their first losing summer since 1996 as these teams close out the exhibition campaign against each other for the ninth straight year.
Philadelphia rallied from deficits off 17-3, 27-13 and 30-20 against the Jaguars a week ago, pulling out a 33-32 victory, never threatening to cover as a seven-point home favorite. Michael Vick made his much-hyped debut in the contest, going 4-for-4 for 19 yards and rushing once for a yard as he played six first-half snaps.
Eagles coach Andy Reid said QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook and many of his starters will sit this game out. Backup QB Kevin Kolb will start, with Vick going under center late in the first half and starting the second half at quarterback. A.J. Feeley would follow Vick.
The Jets held off the Giants in their annual Week 3 preseason battle on Saturday, eking out a 27-25 victory as a three-point underdog. New York coach Rex Ryan said rookie QB Mark Sanchez and the rest of his starters will play just one series. Backup Kellen Clemens should follow, but expect rookie Erik Ainge to see the bulk of the action.
New York is 8-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS since the start of the 2007 preseason, but it is just 3-5-1 ATS in its last nine at the Meadowlands (including neutral-site games against the Giants). The Jets have also failed to cash in five of their last six when laying points in the preseason.
Not only have the Eagles failed to cover in four straight preseason games, they’re 3-8 ATS in exhibition action since the start of 2007 and they’re 1-6 SU (2-5 ATS) as a preseason visitor since 2006. They’ve also dropped seven consecutive Week 4 meetings against the Jets and they’re 2-6 ATS in this preseason rivalry since 2001. Four of those eight battles were decided by three points or less.
Philadelphia has gone over the posted price in six straight preseason games and 10 of its last 11, while New York has topped the total in four straight exhibition outings going back to last year’s 27-20 win over the Eagles. In fact, the over is 4-1 in the last five summer meetings between these squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS and OVER
N.Y. Giants (1-2 SU and ATS) at New England (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS)
The annual Giants-Patriots Week 4 battle takes place at Gillette Stadium, with New England likely taking the field without Tom Brady.
Despite a strong performance from Eli Manning (12-for-17, 181 yards, 2 TDs, no INTs), New York fell 27-25 to the rival Jets on Saturday as a three-point chalk. Coach Tom Coughlin normally plays his starters, including Manning, for about a quarter in the preseason finale, but said earlier this week that he may alter that plan. He did acknowledge that young QBs Andre Woodson and rookie Rhett Bomar would see significant action, meaning No. 2 passer David Carr may be the odd man out in this contest.
New England got a last-minute field goal to upend Washington 27-24 on Friday, but fell short as a 4½-point road favorite. Brady was sharp in one half of action against the Redskins, going 12-for-19 for 150 yards and two TDs, but on his final pass, he was driven to the ground by Albert Haynesworth and hurt his shoulder. Brady threw in practice this week and appears fine, but coach Bill Belichick usually doesn’t play Brady or the majority of his starters in Week 4.
The Patriots surprisingly waived No. 2 QB Kevin O’Connell this week, leaving the offense for this game in the hands of Andrew Walter (who joined the Pats on Aug. 4) and rookie free agent Brian Hoyer.
New England is now in a 1-6 ATS exhibition slump (2-5 SU) since the start of last summer, going 0-3 SU and ATS at home. Meanwhile, New York failed to get the money the last two weeks and is 3-5 SU and ATS in true preseason road games since Coughlin took over in 2004. However, the Giants are still 6-1 ATS as a preseason chalk since 2006.
These teams have matched up in the preseason finale each of the last four years, with the Giants going 3-1 SU and ATS, including a 19-14 win as a 2½-point home chalk in 2008. The favorite has cashed in each of the last three preseason battles. Going back to 2001, the home team is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in exhibition clashes.
The under is 9-6 in New York’s last 15 summer affairs, but the over is 9-6 in New England’s last 15 (4-2 last six at home).
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Miami (3-0, 2-0-1 ATS) at New Orleans (3-0 SU and ATS)
For the third straight year, the Dolphins and Saints – both of whom are gunning for their first perfect summer this decade – end the exhibition campaign with a battle at the Superdome.
Miami rallied for a 10-6 victory at Tampa Bay last Thursday, covering in a pick-em contest in a game delayed for an hour in the first half because of a lightning storm. Coach Tony Sparano didn’t tip his hand with regard to playing time tonight, but in last year’s preseason finale against the Saints, starting QB Chad Penning threw just four passes, with backup Chad Henne playing the majority of the game. Expect the same tonight, with Henne followed by rookie Pat White.
New Orleans is coming off the most dominating performance of any NFL team this preseason, plastering the Raiders 45-7 as a three-point road chalk. Saints coach Sean Payton, whose team has won its three games by a combined score of 100-28, said his first-string units will probably play just one series. However, QB Drew Brees (14-for-17, 179 yards, 2 TDs in less than a half vs. Oakland) may sit out as he did last year in Week 4. Mark Brunell will either start or replace Brees, but the bulk of the QB playing time will likely go to third-stringer Joey Harrington.
Since beginning the Sparano era with a 17-6 loss to Tampa Bay last year, the Dolphins have now won six consecutive preseason games (6-0 ATS), going 3-0 SU and ATS on the road during this stretch. That includes a 14-10 win in New Orleans as a one-point road pup to end the 2008 preseason. Since 2007, Miami is on a 4-1 ATS roll as an underdog, and it is 4-2 SU and ATS in its last six Week 4 contests, including 3-1 SU and ATS against the Saints.
Although it scored a 17-7 Week 1 win and spread-cover over the Bengals at the Superdome, New Orleans remains just 2-5 SU and ATS at home since Payton took over. The Saints are also 1-5 SU and ATS in preseason finales since 2003.
These teams have met in preseason play seven times since 1999, with the visitor going 6-1 SU and ATS. Also, the underdog cashed in all seven games.
The Saints have topped the total the last two weeks, following a 9-2 “under” run in exhibition play. Miami has stayed low in eight of Miami’s last 10 summer contests, including six of the last seven. Finally, the under is 3-1 in the last four Saints-Dolphins preseason battles and 5-1 in New Orleans’ last six preseason finales.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI and UNDER
Pittsburgh (2-1 SU and ATS) at Carolina (0-3 SU and ATS)
The Panthers attempt to avoid their first winless preseason since 2000 as they close out the summer against the Steelers for the seventh straight year.
Ben Roethlisberger returned to action Saturday and completed 15 of 19 passes for 168 yards while the defense allowed just 135 total yards as the Steelers blitzed the Bills 17-0, cashing as a six-point home favorite. If coach Mike Tomlin sticks with his previous Week 4 game plans, Roethlisberger will play very little if at all tonight (he didn’t play against Carolina last summer and threw just two passes in 2007). Look for veteran backup Charlie Batch to see most of the first-half action, followed by rookie Mike Reilly. No. 3 QB Dennis Dixon remains out with an injury.
Carolina’s lackluster preseason continued with Saturday’s 17-13 loss to Baltimore as a 3½-point home favorite, getting outgained 421-281. John Fox said if his starters go at all tonight, they’ll only be on the field for one or two series, though QB Jake Delhomme has sat out the exhibition finale against Pittsburgh each of the last two years. If that trend continues, look for Matt Moore (who didn’t play last week) to get the bulk of the work, with rookie Hunter Cantwell also seeing action. Delhomme’s backup – veteran Josh McCown – probably won’t play.
The Panthers are mired in a 2-8 SU and ATS preseason funk, going 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS at home in this span and 1-4 ATS as a favorite.
The Steelers are 3-10 ATS in its last 13 preseason road games, but two of the spread-covers came in Carolina in 2005 and 2007, both outright upsets. In fact, Pittsburgh and Carolina have capped the preseason against one another the last six years, with the Steelers going 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four. Also, the ‘dog is 5-0 ATS (3-2 SU) in the last five exhibition meetings, with four of those decided by four points or fewer.
The under is 14-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 16 preseason games (3-0 this year) and 7-1 in its last eight away from home. Also, the under is 5-2 in Carolina’s last seven summer home contests, and the last three preseason clashes between these teams have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Gametimepicks.com
Preseason Finale Outlook
By Bodog.com
Saturday’s going to be a difficult day for some of the best football players in the world.
There’s only room for 53 men on every NFL roster, spread out among 22 positions plus special teams. Saturday is the final cut day before the start of the 2009 season. Most of the personnel decisions have already been made, but there are still some jobs on the line during Week 4, the final week of the preseason. A handful of those who don’t make the cut will go on to the CFL or the new United Football League and be back for training camp next year. Others have some tough career choices to make.
Then there are the players in football limbo. They’re suspended, have yet to sign contracts, will start the year on the injured list, or are named Michael Vick. Keeping track of these players is doubly important as we prepare for both Week 4 of the exhibition season and Week 1 of the regular season.
The Commish
It looks like NFL commissioner Roger Goodell will rule Saturday if and when Vick will be allowed to play for the Philadelphia Eagles. Goodell doesn’t have to make any decision at all until Week 6, but getting the decision in by cut day will allow the Eagles to make the appropriate roster moves. Rumors/press leaks have it that Vick will be made eligible to play in Week 3 against the Kansas City Chiefs, with some hope for an immediate reinstatement. Meanwhile, Vick will reportedly play QB for the second half of Philadelphia’s preseason finale against the New York Jets (-3 at home). Second-string QB Kevin Kolb will start, with Vick lining up here and there in the Wildcat.
Vick’s Rub
The Eagles were one of the fashionable choices to win the Super Bowl this year at 12-1 when the futures market opened. At press time, those odds were down to 10-1, and they could shorten even further after Saturday’s announcement. The over/under on regular season victories was put up on the board more recently and remains (for now) at 9.5. The Minnesota Vikings moved from 22-1 to 12-1 after signing QB Brett Favre; their total for victories is nine. Favre is not expected to play for Minnesota on Friday night against the Dallas Cowboys (+3 on the road).
According to Croyle
The Chiefs are one of the few teams uncertain who their starting QB will be in Week 1. There are conflicting reports in the news about the status of Matt Cassel (knee) for the season opener. If he’s unable to go, the torch will be passed to either Tyler Thigpen or Brodie Croyle. And it appears Croyle has the inside track at the moment; he’ll get the start in Thursday’s Week 4 matchup with the St. Louis Rams (+1 at home). Thigpen (74.4 career QB rating) started 11 games for the Chiefs last year after Croyle (67.5) was injured in the season opener.
Marshall Marshall Marshall
The Denver Broncos haven’t made any headway in their attempts to satisfy WR Brandon Marshall’s trade wishes. He was suspended for the last two games of the preseason, leaving the Broncos short on skill players for Thursday’s matchup with the Arizona Cardinals (-3.5 on the road). QB Kyle Orton has a dislocated right index finger, QB Chris Simms has a high ankle sprain, and RB Knowshon Moreno has a sprained MCL. All three are expected to be ready for the season opener, but WR Jabar Gaffney (broken thumb) is out indefinitely.
The Walking Wounded
Here is a list of some of the other key injuries as the preseason draws to a close.
Cincinnati Bengals RT Andre Smith: stress fracture, out indefinitely
Tampa Bay Buccaneers P Josh Bidwell: hip, out for season
Arizona Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin: hamstring, day-to-day
Indianapolis Colts S Bob Sanders: knee, doubtful for Week 1
Atlanta Falcons RB Jerious Norwood: knee, day-to-day
Detroit Lions QB Daunte Culpepper: toe, day-to-day
Green Bay Packers WR Greg Jennings: concussion, day-to-day
Carolina Panthers DL Maake Kemoeatu: Achilles’, out for season
New England Patriots WR Wes Welker: undisclosed, status uncertain
Baltimore Ravens DB Samari Rolle: neck, PUP list, out until Week 7
Seattle Seahawks LT Walter Jones: knee, out indefinitely