Preseason Profit Report - NFC
By Tony Stoffo
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Head Coach: Wade Phillips – 3rd year
In his first three years as the Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips showed no interest at all in trying to win when Dallas has taken to the road going 1-5. Definitely a strong trend to also follow here this preseason is that the Cowboys do not come with a 100% effort in their dress rehearsal game going a perfect 0-3 under Phillips. A perfect play that fits both scenarios here is when Dallas visits Houston on Aug. 28.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Tony Romo, Jon Kitna, Stephen McGee and Matt Nichols (rookie-Eastern Washington)
New York Giants
Head Coach: Tom Coughlin – 7th year
Head coach Tom Coughlin has always stressed defense when it comes to winning in the regular season. However things sure changed last season starting in the preseason as three of the four Giants games went ‘over’ the total. This trend sure continued in the regular season with 12 of their 16 games seeing the over being the right side. So let’s look for this trend to continue this year especially in their opening game as they open their new stadium against the Jets on Aug. 16.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Eli Manning, Jim Sorgi, Rhett Bomar
Philadelphia Eagles
Head Coach: Andy Reid – 12th year
Under Andy Reid the Eagles have some solid recent trends that can show a nice profit this preseason. First off the Eagles are 3-9 ATS over the past four years in the preseason, and are also on a 7-0 run with the over being the right side. Plus my favorite Philadelphia preseason play is that Reid doesn’t go all out in the first preseason game of the year going a perfect 0-6 in their opener not winning their first preseason game since 2003. The Eagles open up this year against Jacksonville at home on Aug. 13.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Kevin Kolb, Michael Vick and Mike Kafka (rookie-Northwestern)
Washington Redskins
Head Coach: Mike Shananan – 1st year
Everything changes in the preseason for the Redskins with Shananan taking over as head coach. Shananan is one of the winningest coaches in the preseason. Especially in his final preseason game where Shananan has always played this game to win, and is on an 8-1 ATS run. This year’s finale is on Sept. 2 on the road against a Cardinals team that has lost their closing preseason game the last four years.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, Colt Brennan, Richard Bartel
NFC North
Chicago Bears
Head Coach: Lovie Smith – 7th year
The Bears under Lovie Smith Have seen things open up offensively over the past three preseason slates, with the ‘over’ going 9-3. Plus just the opposite can be said in the Bears last preseason game where Lovie just wants to get through this game seeing the ‘under’ go 6-1 over the past seven years. So watch for some high-scoring Chicago games early in the preseason, and then a low-scoring affair in their preseason finale against the Browns on Sept. 2.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jay Cutler, Caleb Hanie, Brett Basanez, and Dan LeFevour (rookie-Central Michigan)
Detroit Lions
Head Coach: Jim Schwartz – 2nd year
Last year in my preseason profit report I told you that the defensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans the last eight seasons Jim Schwartz took over as the new head coach of the 0-16 Lions. Look for Detroit with the new mind set of every new coach with defensive ties to highlight the run and strengthen the defense to play a bunch of fast moving low-scoring games this preseason. Well three of the four Lions’ preseason games went ‘under’ the total. So let’s look for more of the same in Detroit’s preseason games going forward here.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matthew Stafford, Drew Stanton, and Shaun Hill
Green Bay Packers
Head Coach: Jim McCarthy – 5th year
In his first four years as the Packers head coach Mike McCarthy has just been around a .500 preseason coach, so no real advantages to jump on here. However a solid trend has developed that has seen the Packers incorporate a wide open game-plan over the past four years that has seen the ‘over’ go an impressive 12-4 in the preseason. Plus have to add in here is that under McCarthy the Packers really open things up in their final preseason game seeing the ‘over’ go a perfect 4-0 over the past four seasons.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Aaron Rogers, Matt Flynn, and Graham Harrell
Minnesota Vikings
Head Coach: Brad Childress – 5th year
In his first four years as the head coach of the Vikings, Brad Childress has started to show us some strong trend that can help us make some money this preseason. It’s obvious that Childress does not care about the opening preseason game as he just goes thru the motions losing three of four openers as head coach. However he sure turns things around going all out in Week 2, seeing the Vikings go a perfect 4-0. So let’s fade them in Week 1 against the Rams, and make them a solid play in Week 2 against the 49ers.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Brett Favre, Tarvaris Jackson, Sage Rosenfels, and Joe Webb (rookie-UAB)
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Head Coach: Mike Smith – 3rd year
One of my favorite preseason plays goes here on the Falcons as in their 'dress rehearsal' game the last six years the Falcons have gone a perfect 6-0 outscoring their opposition 148-69. This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on Aug. 27 when they play Miami on the road. With the Dolphins playing well in the preseason as of late I can see us getting a real value play on Atlanta in this spot as a nice sized ‘dog.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Ryan, Chris Redman and John Parker Wilson
Carolina Panthers
Head Coach: John Fox – 9th year
As John Fox has progressed as head coach the Panthers he has taken the preseason less seriously and is on a 3-10 ATS run as of late. One extremely strong trend that I have uncovered is when the Panthers play their annual final preseason game against the Steelers. In this game both coaches have agreed to just get finished with this game without any injuries and the majority of the plays are on the ground which eats up the clock quickly making for a low-scoring game. In the last four years this game has seen the ‘under’ the right side going a perfect 4-0. Write this one down as these two teams meet once again in Pittsburgh on Sept. 2.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Moore, Jimmy Clausen (rookie-Notre Dame), Hunter Cantwell and Tony Pike (rookie-Cincinnati)
New Orleans Saints
Head Coach: Sean Payton – 5th year
With the Saints coming off of their Super Bowl win I don’t see Sean Payton doing much this preseason, especially with the Saints 2-6 exhibition record at home under Payton. However a nice value play for this upcoming preseason is that New Orleans has played a very low-scoring game in their finale going a perfect 5-0 ‘under’ in the last five, four of these under Payton. The only problem here is that they have to play a very high-scoring Titans team this year in their final warm up game.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Drew Bees, Chase Daniels and Sean Canfield (rookie-Oregon State)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Head Coach: Raheem Morris – 5th year
Raheem Morris took over as head coach of the Buccaneers last year. Prior to this Morris was on the Tampa Bay staff as the secondary coach. So he has been around to be a part of this overwhelming preseason trend. The Buccaneers have one of the top preseason trends that we look forward to every year. Tampa Bay has been a solid 7-1 in their opening preseason game the last eight years. Plus in Morris’s first year as head coach he sure wasn’t interested in playing defense allowing 87 in the Buccaneers’ four preseason games with three of them easily going ‘over’ the total, something to again watch for this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Josh Freeman, Josh Johnson, Rudy Carpenter and Jevan Snead (rookie-Mississippi)
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
Head Coach: Ken Whisenhunt – 4th year
In his three years as head coach of the Cardinals Ken Whisenhunt has given as some outstanding preseason trends to make some money with this year. Whisenhunt has shown no interest in winning his first or last preseason games going a perfect 0-6. So this year’s two plays to fade the Cardinals are against Houston on Aug. 14 and against the Redskins on Sept. 2.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Leinatt, Derek Anderson, Max Hall (rookie-BYU) and John Skelton (rookie-Fordham)
San Francisco 49ers
Head Coach: Mike Singletary – 4th year
One thing you can sure say about the 49ers and that’s they sure show up in their dress rehearsal game over the past three seasons going a perfect 3-0 against the spread, and all three were as a underdog. This year’s opponent in their dress rehearsal game will be an Oakland Raiders team that has been outscored 69-7 the past two years when they play all their regulars in Week 3.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Alex Smith, David Carr, Nate Davis, and Jarret Brown (rookie-West Virginia)
Seattle Seahawks
Head Coach: Pete Carroll – 1st year
Even though this will be Pete Carroll’s first year as head coach of the Seahawks. It’s hard to go against one of the strongest current preseason trends as Seattle is on a perfect 10-0 ATS run. If you see the Seahawks start fast under Carroll jump on them the rest of the preseason especially with this very solid quarterback rotation.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Hasselbeck, Charlie Whitehurst and J.P. Losman
St Louis Rams
Head Coach: Steve Spagnuolo – 2nd year
With Steve Spagnuolo taking over as head coach of the Rams last season he immediately installed the old Giants winning ways in the preseason, winning three games as an outright underdog. Let’s look for this trend to continue this year as Spagnuolo installs more of his kind of players on the St Louis roster.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: A.J. Feely, Sam Bradford, Keith Null, and Thaddeus Lewis (rookie-Duke)
Preseason Profit Report - AFC
By Tony Stoffo
Many handicappers have the opinion that the preseason games should be left alone and not bet on. I feel just the opposite. I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season, especially this year with only three new head coaches throwing their hat into the ring. If you do your homework, the preseason games offer the betting public a tremendous chance to make a ton of money.
This year as an example we have some teams on a 10-0, 11-1, and 15-2 preseason runs. It doesn’t get much better than that guys!!!
In the preseason, many head coaches have a track record of wanting to win and some just don’t care and are just preparing for the regular season. You can find many games this preseason where you can get a definite edge. Below I have put together a list of all 32 teams with a breakdown of things to look for this preseason that will give you that winning advantage.
With 29 returning head coaches this season look for these solid early trends to really hold up big time for this preseason.
OK so here are this year’s highly rated preseason money making trends for each team starting with the AFC.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Head Coach: Chan Gailey - 1st year
The Bills are a perfect 6-0 against the spread in Week 1 of the preseason over the past six years. This is developing into one of my strongest preseason trends. This year’s play is on Aug. 13 as the Bills will face the Redskins. However, in his two years in Dallas as head coach, Chan Gailey was a horrible 2-8 ATS.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Brohm and Levi Brown (rookie-Troy)
Miami Dolphins
Head Coach: Tony Sparano – 3rd year
With Bill Parcells taking over as executive VP for football operations of the Dolphins, and surrounding himself with all of his Dallas buddies including Tony Sparano you have to look for continued improvement from Miami in August as Parcells always tried to win in the preseason. Even when he took over a bad Cowboys team he immediately started winning in the preseason. Well this has turned an immediate profit as the Dolphins have won 7 of their 8 preseason games over the past two years including a perfect 4-0 last year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Chad Henne, Chad Pennington, Pat White and Tyler Thigpen
New England Patriots
Head Coach: Bill Belichick – 11th year
Belichick and the Patriots used to be a big money maker in the preseason over the years. However since the Super Bowl rings have added up the preseason has just become a waste of time. Especially in the early preseason games as the Patriots have gone 1-5 ATS in their first two preseason games over the past three seasons.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Tom Brady, Brain Hoyer, Jeff Rowe and Zac Robinson (rookie-Oklahoma State)
NY Jets
Head Coach: Rex Ryan – 2nd year
When Rex Ryan took over as the Jets new head coach last season everyone thought he would bring over the Ravens’ tough defense. He sure did in the regular season; however in the preseason Ryan cared less about showing his defense off as the ‘over’ was a perfect 4-0. So let’s look for more of the same this year with the ‘over’ being the solid play in every Jets preseason game.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Mark Sanchez, Kellen Clemens, Erik Ainge and Kevin O’Connell
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Head Coach: John Harbaugh – 3rd year
The Ravens in the past five preseason’s have played some really low-scoring games with the ‘under’ producing an eye-opening 14-5 ledger. This trend has continued with new head coach John Harbaugh, who plays it close to the vest. The Ravens watched the ‘under’ go 6-2 in his first two years as head coach.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Joe Flacco, Troy Smith, John Beck
Cincinnati Bengals
Head Coach: Marvin Lewis – 8th year
Even though the Bengals are just a .500 team in the preseason over the past few years, boy does Cincinnati finish strong in the preseason winning the past four years against the Colts in their final preseason tune up including a blowout win (38-7) against Indianapolis last season. This year’s play is again against the Colts on the road on Sept. 2. These games against the Colts are not even close as the Bengals have outscored them by a combined 99–23 over the past four years.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Carson Palmer, J.T. O’Sullivan and Jordan Palmer
Cleveland Browns
Head Coach: Eric Mangini – 2nd year
In his first year as the Browns head coach, Eric Mangini was just a .500 coach going 2-2. However the Browns and Bears in their final preseason game each year has seen the ‘under’ be the right side in five of the last six encounters. Watch this matchup once again this year on Sept. 2.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jake Delhomme, Seneca Wallace, Colt McCoy (rookie-Texas), and Brett Ratliff
Pittsburgh Steelers
Head Coach: Mike Tomlin – 4th year
This is one of my strongest preseason trends to watch for as the Steelers have seen the ‘under’ go an amazing 15-2 over the past four years in the preseason. Last year was no different as Pittsburgh saw all four of their preseason games stay way ‘under’ the total which has added to a perfect 6-0 run with the ‘under’ over the past two years.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Charlie Batch, Dennis Dixon, and Byron Leftwich
AFC South
Houston Texans
Head Coach: Gary Kubiak – 5th year
As head coach of the Texans over the past four seasons Gary Kubiak has shown a small profit going 9-7 SU. However where the real money can be made on the Texans in the preseason is on the total as we have seen the ‘over’ go 9-3 over the past four seasons under Kubiak.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Schaub, Dan Orlovsky, John David Booty
Indianapolis Colts
Head Coach: Jim Caldwell – 2nd year
With Jim Caldwell taking over as head coach, and with the Colts having a new offensive coordinator, OL coach, and defensive coordinator, Indianapolis went 1-3 ATS last year in the preseason. One trend we still have to watch with Indianapolis is how poorly they play in their last preseason game of the year going 1-7 ATS the last eight years. This year the Colts finish out the preseason as they host the Bengals once again on Sept. 2nd.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Peyton Manning, Curtis Painter, Tom Brandstater and Tim Hiller (rookie-Western Michigan)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Head Coach: Jack Del Rio – 8th year
The Jaguars are sure known for their defense in the regular season. However head coach Jack Del Rio has pulled in the reins during the last five preseason slates, allowing the Jaguars to open things up offensively as they work on improving their passing game. As a result the ‘over’ has gone 14-6 (70%). Look for this trend to again be a money maker this year as the oddsmakers continue to post low totals on all of the Jacksonville preseason games. Plus, while most teams just want to go thru the motions in their final preseason game, the Jaguars are just the opposite as they have won their last preseason game the last four years winning two of them outright as a ‘dog.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: David Garrard, Luke McCown and Trevor Harris (rookie-Edinboro)
Tennessee Titans
Head Coach: Jeff Fisher – 16th year
A strong preseason trend has developed for head coach Jeff Fischer over the past five years as he has sure opened things up offensively in the Titans last preseason game of the year seeing 222 points scored in these games. This year’s last preseason game is against the Saints on Sept. 2nd.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Vince Young, Kerry Collins, Chris Simms, and Rusty Smith (rookie-Florida Atlantic)
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Head Coach: Josh McDaniels – 2nd year
Bill Belichick disciple Josh McDaniels took over as the Broncos new head coach last season. McDaniels went 2-2 in both sides and totals in the preseason. However what really still stands out is the Broncos willingness to dominate in their final preseason game of the year going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 with their only loss coming back in ‘04.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn, Tim Tebow (rookie-Florida)
Kansas City Chiefs
Head Coach: Todd Haley – 2nd year
Even with the Parcells/Belichick disciples Scott Pioli taking over as GM, and Todd Haley taking over as head coach The Chiefs continued their losing ways in the preseason making then now an unbelievable 1-11 ATS over the past three years. Until we see a major turnaround will have to continue to fade the Chiefs in this spot.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Cassel, Brodie Croyle, Matt Gutierrez, Tyler Palko
Oakland Raiders
Head Coach: Tom Cable – 3rd year
Two solid preseason trends continued as Tom Cable took over as the Oakland head coach last season. The Raiders have gone a perfect 4-0 in their first preseason game over the past four years, and are just as bad in their final game going a money making 0-4 ATS with four outright losses. So let’s look for both of these scenarios to continue this season.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jason Campbell, Charlie Frye, Bruce Gradkowski, and Kyle Boller
San Diego Chargers
Head Coach: Norv Turner – 3rd year
This will be Norv Turner’s fourth year as head coach of the Chargers. In Turner’s last head coaching job with the Raiders back in 2004 and 2005, a solid trend can be taken away from it that can give us an edge for the Chargers preseason games. First of all in both of his dress rehearsal games in Oakland the Raiders went 0-2 against the spread, this trend has continued as Turner has not covered his dress rehearsal game the first three years in San Diego making him a perfect 0-5 ATS. So let’s watch for when the Chargers play a Saints team on Aug. 27 this year that have won their dress rehearsal game the past three years by a combined 88-14.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Phillip Rivers, Billy Volek, and Jonathan Crompton (rookie-Tennessee)