Preseason Week 1 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
The NFL preseason gets a bad rap.
Sure, most veterans take only one game seriously and we’ll all be ready to be done with it before the month is up, but don’t sleep on its charms.
In the Hall of Fame game alone, Steelers LB Ryan Shazier and RB/WR Dri Archer attempted to atone for rough rookie years by attacking the first available opportunity. Minnesota showcased impressive depth and saw intriguing rookie WR/KR Stefon Diggs back up what he’s been doing in practices with an electrifying punt return on Sunday’s most memorable play.
There will be reasons to tune in for every single preseason contest even if you abstain from getting in any action.
It’s a misconception that trying to profit of the preseason is akin to throwing darts. You can do well if you isolate games where the coaching staffs have different agendas in regards to playing time or what they’re schematically looking to accomplish, not to mention general mismatches in terms of personnel depth.Here’s how Week 1 shakes out:
Thursday, Aug. 13
New Orleans at Baltimore (BAL -3/37.5): The Saints have taken the cautious approach with Marques Colston, Brandin Cooks and newly acquired C.J. Spiller, so they’re all likely out. Drew Brees didn’t play in last year’s preseason opener, yet New Orleans still beat St. Louis 26-24 behind Luke McCown, who returns as the primary backup. Baltimore welcomes Matt Schaub to the party, looking to ease concerns about his uneven play in camp thus far. The Ravens were 4-0 last preseason.
Green Bay at New England (NE -3/38): A focused Tom Brady has been brilliant in practice, clearly locking in early in an attempt to press forward. Despite that, this preseason is all about getting Jimmy Garoppolo ready to play in Week 1. Bill Belichick’s strategy will reveal itself some here, but it’s worth noting that the Patriots have had more players unavailable due to injury than most at this early stage and just cut veteran backup QB Matt Flynn, opting for Ryan Lindley. The Packers have lost their preseason opener in five consecutive seasons.
N.Y. Jets at Detroit (DET -3/37): The Todd Bowles era gets underway, but his Jets defense has already had bad luck with injuries and off-field issues. QB Geno Smith has looked sharper, but don’t expect more than a cameo from him and new No. 1 WR Brandon Marshall. The Lions saw Matthew Stafford dominate this weekend’s scrimmage with brilliant throws, but backups Kellen Moore and Dan Orlovsky combined for three picks and no touchdowns. They’ll do the bulk of the work here.
Miami at Chicago (PK/37): Quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s continued improvement has been a positive sign considering the Dolphins just gave him more guaranteed money in the hope he’ll be their most productive quarterback since Dan Marino. The Bears are counting on Jay Cutler bouncing back from last season’s implosion and won’t expose him much, if at all, this early. Still, with coordinator Adam Gase installing a new offense and Vic Fangio implementing a 3-4 defense, we’ll see whether this bunch acclimates to change quickly.
Washington at Cleveland (CLE -2/37.5): Controversially divisive signal-callers Robert Griffin III and Johnny Manziel get more attention and scrutiny than even Tim Tebow, so this one is must-see TV. Both are expected to play, but it’s likely that Manziel gets much more time here since RGIII is slated to start opposite Josh McCown. Manziel put together an improved, eye-opening performance in this past weekend’s scrimmage.
Dallas at San Diego (SD -3.5/37.5): Count on Tony Romo and Philip Rivers wearing baseball caps throughout the duration of this one. Young players will be on the field for both sides throughout most of this one, so not even veteran backups Brandon Weeden nor Kellen Clemens should see much action. Instead, this QB battle will pit San Diego’s Chase Rettig and Brad Sorensen against Dallas’ Dustin Vaughan and Jameill Showers. The Chargers beat the Cowboys 27-7 in last year’s preseason opener.
Friday, Aug. 14
Tennessee at Atlanta (ATL -2.5/38): The Falcons are nursing multiple injuries and have no desire to expose Matt Ryan, so this is all about Marcus Mariota’s debut. Having drawn rave reviews so far, he can really get them riled up in Nashville if he’s sharp out of the gate.
Carolina at Buffalo (BUF -2.5/35.5): While Cam Newton may not play for the Panthers, new Bills coach Rex Ryan is going to need EJ Manuel, Matt Cassel or Tyrod Taylor to break through. None has managed to gain much separation thus far.
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (PK/36): After scoring just three points against the Vikings, offensive coordinator Todd Haley should have Ben Roethlisberger available. Backup Bruce Gradkowski remains out with a shoulder injury, so the Jags should still get a heavy dose of Landry Jones, who lacked a pocket presence and command of the offense on Sunday. Word is Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles has looked impressive in camp thus far.
N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati (CIN -3/37.5): Veteran head coach Tom Coughlin led New York to 5-0 preseason mark in 2014, but then saw his team collapse to a 6-10 disaster. He may not be too interested in keeping the streak as a result, but it’s likely that winning this opener will hinge on the shoulders of new acquisition Ricky Stanzi, out to prove he should stick as the team’s third QB. The Bengals are looking for ex-Alabama star A.J. McCarron to continue displaying growth and lock up the top backup job to Andy Dalton.
St. Louis at Oakland (OAK -1/35.5): The two franchises who once shared Los Angeles are thrown together to open their seasons amid speculation that relocation may be in the immediate future. Improvement should also be in the cards, as both teams have promising young talent that should be on display here.
Denver at Seattle (SEA -5.5/36): Expect Peyton Manning to play at least a series against the two-time defending NFC champs, who provide a nice early measuring stick. Brock Osweiler is one of the more competent backup QBs and helped end Seattle's nine-game preseason winning streak in last year's opener. The Seahawks are 10-2 in preseason play over the past three seasons, which is why they opened up as the biggest chalk of Week 1.
Saturday, Aug. 15
San Francisco at Houston (HOU -3/35): The 49ers are basically starting over under new head coach Jim Tomsula, moving on from Jim Harbaugh, Frank Gore and multiple key defensive leaders. Houston has to pick a starter between QBs Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer. Promising third-stringer Tom Savage is likely to get the bulk of the snaps here.
Tampa Bay at Minnesota (N/A): Second-year QB Teddy Bridgewater looked sharp in his lone series, so with Adrian Peterson expected to sit out the entire preseason, all eyes will be on his continued development. Jameis Winston has the Bucs excited thus far in camp, particularly in red-zone drills. There will be lots of eyes on this one.
Kansas City at Arizona (AZ -2.5/36): The Chiefs are looking for new offensive weapons to step up, but Andy Reid has never put much emphasis on these exhibition games beyond the third one. Bruce Arians is 2-for-2 in preseason openers, but has dealt with a host of injuries. Since Tyrann Mathieu already almost broke Carson Palmer in practice, it's hard to imagine the 35-year-old coming back from a second ACL tear plays much this month. Drew Stanton has the backup job locked up, but Chandler Harnish, Logan Thomas and rookie Phillip Sims are looking to stick as No. 3.
Sunday, Aug. 16
Indianapolis at Philadelphia (PHI -3.5): With the spotlight to themselves, we’ll get to see what the heavily scrutinized Chip Kelly and Chuck Pagano bring to the table in this first installment. The Eagles want to play fast above all else and averaged an NFL-best 32.7 points per game last preseason. Sam Bradford is likely to make his first in-game appearance since tearing his ACL in the third of last year’s exhibitions. Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley and Tebow will entertain the country one way or another. Count on that.
NFL Quarterback Rotations
ARIZONA — Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Logan Thomas, Phillip Sims
ATLANTA — Matt Ryan, T.J. Yates, Sean Renfree
BALTIMORE — Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, Bryn Renner
BUFFALO — Matt Cassel, EJ Manuel, Tyrod Taylor, Matt Simms
CAROLINA — Cam Newton, Derek Anderson, Joe Webb
CHICAGO — Jay Cutler, Jimmy Clausen, Shane Carden, David Fales
CINCINNATI — Andy Dalton, AJ McCarron, Josh Johnson, Keith Wenning
CLEVELAND — Josh McCown, Johnny Manziel, Connor Shaw, Thad Lewis
DALLAS — Tony Romo, Brandon Weeden, Dustin Vaughn, Jameill Showers
DENVER — Peyton Manning, Brock Osweiler, Zac Dysert, Trevor Siemian
DETROIT — Matthew Stafford, Kellen Moore, Dan Orlovsky, Garrett Gilbert
GREEN BAY — Aaron Rodgers, Scott Tolzien, Brett Hundley, Matt Blanchard
HOUSTON — Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, Tom Savage
INDIANAPOLIS — Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck, Bryan Bennett
JACKSONVILLE — Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Stephen Morris, Jeff Tuel
KANSAS CITY — Alex Smith, Chase Daniel, Aaron Murray
MIAMI — Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Josh Freeman, McLeod Bethel-Thompson
MINNESOTA — Teddy Bridgewater, Shaun Hill, Taylor Heinicke, Mike Kafka
NEW ENGLAND — Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Lindley
NEW ORLEANS — Drew Brees, Luke McCown, Ryan Griffin, Garrett Grayson
N.Y. GIANTS — Eli Manning, Ryan Nassib, Ricky Stanzi
N.Y. JETS — Geno Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty, Jake Heaps
OAKLAND — Derek Carr, Christian Ponder, Matt McGloin, Cody Fajardo
PHILADELPHIA — Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley, Tim Tebow, G.J. Kinne
PITTSBURGH — Ben Roethlisberger, Landry Jones, Bruce Gradkowski, Tajh Boyd
SAN DIEGO — Philip Rivers, Kellen Clemens, Brad Sorensen, Chase Rettig
SAN FRANCISCO — Colin Kaepernick, Blaine Gabbert, Dylan Thompson
SEATTLE — Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson, R.J. Archer
ST. LOUIS — Nick Foles, Austin Davis, Case Keenum, Sean Mannion
TAMPA BAY — Jameis Winston, Mike Glennon, Seth Lobato
TENNESSEE — Marcus Mariota, Zach Mettenberger, Charlie Whitehurst, Alex Tanney
WASHINGTON — Robert Griffin III, Kirk Cousins, Colt McCoy
NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
Sean Payton known for his tendency to instill a winning attitude in his troops at this time of the year, the New Orleans Saints have been money in-the-bank during preseason. Over the past 8 years, Saints are an awsome 24-10 ATS. Take away Payton's suspended season, Saints remain a sparkling 20-9 ATS with the coach guiding the squad including 5-2 ATS in Wk1 games. Final betting nugget. Saints are on a 11-1 ATS streak as August underdogs, the exact situation they find themselve Thursday night.
Practice Season
Sportspic.com
The first full week of NFL preseason football begins on Thursday, August 13 with six games on tap, followed by ten more over the next three days. Many sports bettors prefer a 'wait and see' attitude at this time of the year because most teams are content to limit activity of starters' while handing most duties to raw rookies making it tough identifying squads that will succeed during tune-up clashes.
However, there are still plenty of good wagering opportunities for those who wish to participate in preseason betting. Studying past histories of teams during August and certain coaches can glean wagering edges. A coach like Sean Payton instils a winning attitude during practice season which is why Saints have produce a solid 20-9 ATS stretch in August. A guy like Andy Reid who saw his club fall apart down the stretch last year (2-4 SU/ATS) will likely exert energies evaluating personnel rather than worry about improving Chiefs 5-19 SU, 3-18-3 ATS skid in warm-ups. Note: Reid is 1-8-2 ATS in his last eleven HOF/WK1 preseason games with Kansas City and Philadelphia.
Another interesting betting nugget. Super Bowl Winners and Super Bowl runner ups are not always the best bets the first time out. SB Winners have a 4-7 ATS skid L11 years. Runner ups have a cash draining 1-6 ATS mark L7 and 3-8 ATS record last eleven openers. Betting on the NFL in August is a completely different exercise than betting on the same sport a month later.
Pack at Pats, Jets at Lions in Preseason Games
BY APNews
PACKERS AT PATRIOTS
Will the New England Patriots' preseason opener be a coming-out party for Jimmy Garoppolo or a thumb in the eye to Roger Goodell and the NFL's ''Deflategate'' investigation?
That's what football fans will see when the Patriots play the Green Bay Packers in their exhibition opener. With a four-game suspension looming over quarterback Tom Brady, coach Bill Belichick will have to decide which is more important: Getting his backup prepared for a possible stint as the starter, or showing his support for the suspended Super Bowl MVP.
No surprise: Belichick hasn't said anything about his plans. So when the teams take the field, the Packers and the rest of the NFL will learn for the first time how the defending champions plan to handle the potential absence of their star.
Packers coach Mike McCarthy said his plan is to play everyone who travels to New England, and that includes quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
JETS AT LIONS
Ryan Fitzpatrick and the New York Jets try to put a tumultuous few days behind them when they play at Detroit. Fitzpatrick is now the starting quarterback after Geno Smith was lost for at least six to 10 weeks with a broken jaw. Smith was punched by teammate Ikemefuna Enemkpali in the locker room Tuesday. Enemkpali was claimed by the Buffalo Bills - coached by former Jets coach Rex Ryan - off waivers Wednesday.
The Jets face a Detroit defense that was excellent last season, but lost star defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh to free agency. Second-year defensive lineman Caraun Reid may play a bigger role this season.
REDSKINS AT BROWNS
All eyes will be on the quarterbacks as Robert Griffin III tries to win back the hearts of Washington fans and Josh McCown tries to hold off Johnny Manziel for Cleveland's starting job.
RGIII has been saying all the right things during training camp and exuding the confidence that helped him take the NFL by storm as a rookie. Despite being benched the past two seasons, Griffin begins the season as the Redskins' No. 1 QB and can solidify his status with a solid preseason. He'll likely play a quarter before turning the offense over to Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy.
The 36-year-old McCown has had an impressive camp, displaying the leadership Cleveland desperately needs while serving as a mentor for Manziel. The Browns only see McCown as a temporary fix. They are anxious to see if Manziel can continue his development following a forgettable rookie season.
Manziel was bothered by a sore elbow earlier this week, but is expected to play. Cleveland's offense has been hit with injuries. Wide receivers Dwayne Bowe, Terrelle Pryor and rookie running back Duke Johnson are all out.
SAINTS AT RAVENS
Veteran quarterback Matt Schaub will see his first action with the Baltimore Ravens, serving as backup to Joe Flacco. The 34-year-old Schaub is expected to receive the majority of playing time. Schaub threw only 10 passes as a backup in Oakland last year, and fills a role held the past four seasons by Tyrod Taylor, now with the Bills.
The Saints' kicking competition begins in earnest when Zach Hocker out of Arkansas and Dustin Hopkins out of Florida State vie to fill the void left by Shayne Graham, who was cut loose during the offseason. Neither Hocker nor Hopkins has ever participated in an NFL regular-season game.
DOLPHINS AT BEARS
The Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins were busy in the offseason.
Chicago hired general manager Ryan Pace and coach John Fox, hoping to turn around a team that won five games. Miami signed one of the league's top defensive linemen in Ndamukong Suh.
Both teams also revised their receiving group. Chicago traded Brandon Marshall and drafted Kevin White with the No. 7 pick. Miami, 8-8 in 2014, drafted DeVante Parker at No. 14. Neither rookie has yet to take the field in training camp. White has left shin injury; Parker is recovering from foot surgery.
The Bears have openings all over their defense as they switch from a 4-3 to 3-4 scheme. On offense, they hope quarterback Jay Cutler can cut down on the turnovers under new coordinator Adam Gase.
COWBOYS AT CHARGERS
The Chargers host the Cowboys and will get their first real look at running back Melvin Gordon, whom they drafted with the 15th pick overall.
''I'm excited to see what I've got and see what we're capable of,'' Gordon said. ''I just want to go out here and contribute to the team and be the playmaker I think I can be.''
Gus Johnson, an undrafted rookie running back, gets perhaps his best chance to prove he can make it with the Dallas Cowboys.
Injuries to the top three candidates to replace NFL rushing champion DeMarco Murray could mean Johnson is the starter in San Diego. A month ago, he was unsigned. He got a call just before the Cowboys reported to training camp in California.
Thursday's Preseason Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Saints at Ravens (-3, 38)
New Orleans
Head Coach: Sean Payton (19-14 SU, 21-12 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Drew Brees, Luke McCown, Garrett Grayson (Rookie), Ryan Griffin
The Saints have cruised to a 4-0 SU/ATS record in their last four preseason openers, while New Orleans owns a solid 7-2 SU record in exhibition openers since Brees signed in the Big Easy back in 2006. New Orleans scored at least 23 points in three of four preseason contests in 2014, while losing to Baltimore in the finale, 22-13 as three-point home favorites.
Baltimore
Head Coach: John Harbaugh (19-9 SU, 17-11 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, Bryn Renner (Rookie)
The Ravens put together a perfect 4-0 preseason in 2014, which included a pair of home wins over the Redskins and 49ers. Baltimore cashed the ‘over’ in all four exhibition games in 2013, but the ‘under’ went 3-1 last preseason. The Ravens have scored at least 21 points in eight consecutive preseason games.
Jets at Lions (-4, 36)
New York
Head Coach: Todd Bowles (No preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty (Rookie), Jake Heaps (Rookie)
Geno Smith’s broken jaw in a locker room skirmish made all the headlines even before the Jets played their first preseason game. The Jets’ quarterback is out for six-to-10 weeks, as Ryan Fitzpatrick is the front-runner for the starting job. Bowles enters his first season as head coach of the Jets, who split four preseason games last season, while covering just once. The Jets make their first trip to the Motor City since the opener of the 2013 preseason, losing to the Lions, 26-17 as a four-point underdog.
Detroit
Head Coach: Jim Caldwell (5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Matthew Stafford, Dan Orlovsky, Kellen Moore, Garrett Gilbert
Caldwell compiled his best preseason record in four seasons as head man of the Colts and Lions, going 3-1 SU/ATS in 2014. In the three wins, the Lions allowed only one touchdown and 24 points, while cashing the ‘under’ in three of four preseason contests. Since 2013, Detroit has won four straight preseason games at Ford Field.
Packers at Patriots (-2½, 37½)
Green Bay
Head Coach: Mike McCarthy (18-18 SU, 18-18 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Aaron Rodgers, Scott Tolzien, Matt Blanchard (Rookie), Brett Hundley (Rookie)
The Packers take the field for the first time since getting shocked by the Seahawks in the NFC Championship. Green Bay dropped its preseason opener at Tennessee in 2014, but won its final three exhibition games, all by double-digits. The Packers are 0-5 in their last five preseason openers with the last victory in Game 1 of the exhibition season coming in 2009 against the Browns.
New England
Head Coach: Bill Belichick (44-37 SU, 40-34-7 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Lindley
Tom Brady is not expected to play in the preseason opener, as Jimmy Garoppolo will likely get the start at quarterback for the Patriots. Obviously, Garoppolo will see plenty of playing time during the preseason with Brady’s four-game suspension looming. The Patriots are riding a four-game home winning streak in the preseason, while scoring at least 25 points in each of those victories.
Redskins at Browns (-2, 37½)
Washington
Head Coach: Jay Gruden (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Robert Griffin III, Colt McCoy, Kirk Cousins
All of the promise from the 2014 preseason didn’t translate into success for the 2014 regular season in Washington. The Redskins won three of four exhibition games, including a 24-23 victory over the Browns at FedEx Field in Week 2 of the 2014 preseason. Since Robert Griffin III arrived in D.C. in 2012, the Redskins have fared extremely well in the preseason, winning 10 of 12 games.
Cleveland
Head Coach: Mike Pettine (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Josh McCown, Johnny Manziel, Thaddeus Lewis (Rookie), Connor Shaw
The quarterback battle heats up again in Cleveland as Josh McCown looks to be the front-runner for the starting job. Cleveland dropped three of four preseason games in Pettine’s first season, which included a pair of one-point losses to the Lions and Redskins. Prior to Pettine’s arrival, the Browns went 3-1 to the ‘over’ in 2013, but posted a 3-1 mark to the ‘under’ in his preseason debut.
Dolphins at Bears (-1½, 37)
Miami
Head Coach: Joe Philbin (5-8 SU, 3-9-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Josh Freeman, McLeod Bethel-Thompson
Philbin put together his best preseason in three seasons as the coach of the Dolphins in 2014, posting a 3-1 record. After Miami lost its opener at Atlanta, the ‘Fins won the final three games, while going 3-0-1 to the ‘under’ last postseason. In Philbin’s tenure, the Dolphins have yet to win in their first preseason game, as Miami is 2-5 SU in seven exhibition contests away from South Florida since 2012.
Chicago
Head Coach: John Fox (28-24 SU, 24-27-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Jay Cutler, Jimmy Clausen, Shane Carden (Rookie)
It’s a new season for the Bears, who hope to put a five-game skid to finish off 2014 behind them. Chicago won both preseason games at Soldier Field last season, while compiling a 4-1 SU record in their last five preseason home contests. In Fox’s last three seasons as head coach of the Broncos, Denver won each of its three preseason openers.
Cowboys at Chargers (-4, 38)
Dallas
Head Coach: Jason Garrett (7-10 SU, 5-11-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Tony Romo, Brandon Weeden, Dustin Vaughan, Jameill Showers (Rookie)
The Cowboys didn’t show much in the 2014 preseason, failing to win a game in four tries, including a 27-7 setback at San Diego in the opener. Dallas has dropped five straight true road games in the preseason, with the only win away from Cowboys Stadium coming in the Hall of the Fame game over the Dolphins in 2013.
San Diego
Head Coach: Mike McCoy (3-5 SU, 3-4-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Philip Rivers, Kellen Clemens, Brad Sorensen, Chase Rettig (Rookie)
The Chargers haven’t been a great team to back in McCoy’s short tenure in the preseason. San Diego dropped a pair of home games by double-digits in his first season in 2013, while splitting four games in 2014. Six of the last eight preseason games played by the Lightning Bolts have been decided by 10 points or more, so don’t expect close contests when betting on San Diego in August.
Friday's Betting News
By Dave Essler
Titans-Falcons: In 11 practices Mariota hasn't thrown a pick in camp, and although Wisenhunt hasn't publicly said how much he'll play, it expected to be a series or two. Handicapping these early games is usually about the second (and sometimes third) string quarterbacks. Not sure I like Mettenberger for the simple reason that he can't move well (certainly not like Mariota) and won't have the A team in front of him. I do like the Titans backs - elusive and fast, which matters much more in the second half - because as things break down the quicker/more elusive backs can improvise against the B/C talent they'll play against, not unlike college. The Titans best chance of scoring may come if and when Whitehurst sees the field - based on experience alone. You've got Dan Quinn's first game as the Falcons coach - he came over from Seattle as the architect of that defense, and Atlanta spent most of it's money trying to shore theirs' up - so that will clearly be a point of emphasis all night. Wisenhunt's preseason record was awful (10-19) with the Cardinals - some of that perhaps because they just didn't have the talent they do now, and Tennessee's franchise could use the win as much as the Falcons. I do like T Yates and Renfree is fairly disciplined (go figure, he played at Duke) - so, with all that - I like the Titans to score early because the Falcons defense just cannot turn it around THAT quickly (and I like Mariota in broken plays) and I like Atlanta to win it late. They've just got better players and a deeper roster. Mike Smith was 9-19 in preseason games - so don't factor that in if you're looking at how the Falcons have been in NFLX.
Carolina-Buffalo: All the talk about the Bills and the new Rex Ryan - and much of it I buy. Their defense didn't suck before he got there - they won't now. Rex was about a .500 preseason coach (well, he still is - albeit slightly under) and at home one would think they'd at least start fast. Sammy Watkins is all about winning even playing vanilla (from the Bills website), which can be contagious to other players. One thing I do like about Buffalo here is that Tyrod Taylor and Manuel can both move real well, and that's served us well in previous exhibition games - when things break down, and they will - the athletes tend to shine - or at least make something out of nothing. Rivera is 8-8 in the preseason, and honestly winning shouldn't be as important to the Panthers at this point as evaluation is. Their backup QB's - Derek Anderson is just bad - and I would be far more fearful of Joe Webb running around in the fourth quarter, although I have no looked at the rotation yet. The Panthers will play a couple of rookie linebackers, Mayo and Thompson - a fair bit - and that could work either way. Against Manuel and Taylor, that could be a disadvantage. Like the Bills here, and there are enough playmakers to think this might be one of those games that goes over.
Giants-Bengals: New York needs far more to find some depth than it does to win - at least as compared to the Bengals, and one would think that Lewis is perhaps on the hot seat even with Bengals ownership, which is hard to do. Coughlin has actually been a decent preseason coach (24-21 including the stint in Jacksonville) - Spagnuolo back coaching the defense after his failed attempt at being a head coach. Nassib and Stanzi are the Giants backups - Nassib obviously a bit more experience, but still very "inexperienced" and I might worry about him trying to do TOO much (he did that at Syracuse on occasion). Perhaps Eli gets Beckham one long score early - Giants to score first, perhaps. These two teams scrimmaged each other this week (not uncommon) and it has been my experience that when that happens the actual game tends to have more points early than a typical exhibition game. AJ McCarron is probably out Friday after an early-week injury - so it's Josh Johnson (one who should do well against B teams) and Kieth Wenning. I do like Wenning's upside, but he did play at Ball State and those things matter early in an NFL QB's career. It was Ball State, and nothing against the MAC - but in NFLX we'll take a QB who played the toughest competition over one that thrived against mediocrity. I still don't expect the Bengals to do a whole lot on offense. On offense (after you get past the "A"'s and "resting" starters, their super young on the O-line. Defensively they are very experienced up front til you get to the "4"s - who could make Ricky Stanzi look better than he might otherwise be - and also because he DID play at Iowa hence has actually seen a 325 pound defensive lineman that can run. Maybe some unexpected points here - tough call on the side but I'd have to digress to taking the +3 if Wenning is going to play more than Johnson, and the other way around if Johnson gets the bulk of the work.
Jacksonville-Pittsburgh: The inclination would be to take the Steelers since it's their second exhibition game - but let's not forget that the first game was only five nights prior - not that there would ever be a "plan" for this game, but barely enough time to fix mistakes from the first game. Tomlin has been a great preseason coach (20-13) - Bradley is 2-6 but I don't think you can take much from a talentless team in the preseason. Bradley came from the Seahawks and Pete Carroll - who pretty much try to win every game they play, so I wouldn't dismiss Jacksonville here. They really need to make some sort of impression here or very soon they won't be in Jacksonville - and honestly, my guess is that there will be as many if not more fans in EverBank Field that are wearing black and gold, not black and teal. The Jaguars do have experience backups after Bortles - and perhaps the second year for Bortles they'll be less pressure and the game slows down. Remember what I said about Wenning playing at Ball State - Bortles played at Central Florida - so there's that, too - no competition per se when it comes to even the B team in the NFL. And they do have some talented RB's, or at least probably so, with TJ Yeldon, but beyond that they've got Toby Gerhart (you remember, Stanford) and Dennard Robinson (yes, the little fast guys that can do well when things break down). That's something that would benefit a Taj Boyd more than a Landry Jones. Might be a point or two scored here, actually - and give me - I don't know yet, but it won't be the Steelers. Maybe Steelers 1H and Jags 2H - we'll see.
Friday's Preseason Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Titans at Falcons (-2½, 37)
Tennessee
Head Coach: Ken Whisenhunt (10-19 SU, 10-18-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Marcus Mariota (Rookie), Zach Mettenberger, Charlie Whitehurst, Alex Tanney
The Titans won their regular season opener last season at Kansas City, but lost 14 of their final 15 games. Heisman winner Marcus Mariota takes over at quarterback for Tennessee, who posted a 2-2 SU/ATS record in the 2014 preseason. One of those victories came at the Georgia Dome, beating the Falcons, 24-17 as a four-point underdog in Week 3.
Atlanta
Head Coach: Dan Quinn (No preseason record)
Quarterback Rotation: Matt Ryan, T.J. Yates, Sean Renfree
The Falcons cashed the ‘under’ in all four preseason contests in 2014, while winning the home opener against the Dolphins. Atlanta has struggled at home in the exhibition season, putting together a 1-8 SU/ATS record in its last nine at the Georgia Dome since 2010.
Panthers at Bills (-3, 35½)
Carolina
Head Coach: Ron Rivera (8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Cam Newton, Derek Anderson, Joe Webb
The Panthers are coming off consecutive playoff appearances, as they look for their third straight division title this season. Carolina lost its preseason opener at home to Buffalo last August, 20-18 as one-point underdogs, while posting a 2-2 SU/ATS record in exhibition play. The Panthers have cashed three straight ‘overs’ in their past three preseason openers, but are 3-1 to the ‘under’ in their last four road preseason contests.
Buffalo
Head Coach: Rex Ryan (11-13 SU, 11-13 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Matt Cassel, E.J. Manuel, Tyrod Taylor, Matt Simms
The Rex Ryan era begins in Buffalo as the Bills try to rebound from a dreadful 1-4 SU/ATS record in the 2014 preseason, while scoring 16 points or less in all four losses. Ryan didn’t put much stock in preseason openers as head coach of the Jets, as they lost five of their past six kickoffs to the exhibition season.
Giants at Bengals (-3, 37)
New York
Head Coach: Tom Coughlin (43-35 SU, 40-33-5 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Eli Manning, Ryan Nassib, Ricky Stanzi
The Giants won all five preseason games in 2014, while covering four times. Each of the past three preseason road contests for New York have cashed the ‘over,’ while the Giants are facing the Bengals in exhibition play for the first time since 1998.
Cincinnati
Head Coach: Marvin Lewis (25-24 SU, 25-23-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Andy Dalton, A.J. McCarron, Josh Johnson, Keith Wenning
The Bengals split four preseason contests last season, as Cincinnati lost the first two before winning the last two games. The ‘over’ cashed three times, while scoring at least 35 points twice. In their opening 41-39 loss at Kansas City to kick off the 2014 preseason, the Chiefs scored three non-offensive touchdowns as the Bengals allowed just 304 yards of offense.
Steelers at Jaguars (PK, 36½)
Pittsburgh
Head Coach: Mike Tomlin (20-14 SU, 15-18-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Ben Roethlisberger, Landry Jones, Tajh Boyd
The Steelers didn’t show much on offense in a 14-3 loss to the Vikings in the Hall of Fame game last Sunday. Pittsburgh racked up 191 yards, while Ben Roethlisberger didn’t take one snap in the defeat. With the loss, the Steelers dropped to 1-8 SU/ATS in their last nine preseason games, while scoring 19 points or less seven times in this span.
Jacksonville
Head Coach: Gus Bradley (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Stephen Morris, Jeff Tuel
The Jaguars have struggled in the preseason under Bradley, winning twice in eight tries the last two seasons. The ‘under’ hit in all four games, while Jacksonville covered three times in spite of a 1-3 SU record. In 20 home games (preseason and regular season) in Bradley’s tenure, the Jaguars have won just five times at EverBank Field.
Rams (-1, 36) at Raiders
St. Louis
Head Coach: Jeff Fisher (38-38 SU, 37-37-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Nick Foles, Austin Davis, Sean Mannion (Rookie), Case Keenum
The Rams stumbled to a 1-3 record last August, but the lone victory came on the road at Cleveland in a 33-14 blowout. Since a 4-0 mark in the 2011 preseason, the Rams have posted a 4-8 record in the last three preseasons under Fisher, including an 0-3 ledger in the past three exhibition openers.
Oakland
Head Coach: Jack Del Rio (21-15 SU, 20-14-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Derek Carr, Christian Ponder, Matt McGloin, Cody Fajardo (Rookie)
Del Rio is back as a head coach for the first time since 2011, as the Raiders have won four of their last five preseason games at the Coliseum. In both home wins last August, Oakland outlasted Detroit and Seattle in high-scoring affairs, while allowing at least 26 points in each of their last three preseason contests.
Broncos at Seahawks (-5, 37)
Denver
Head Coach: Gary Kubiak (19-13 SU, 19-11-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Brock Osweiler, Zac Dysert, Trevor Siemian (Rookie)
Peyton Manning will watch this Super Bowl rematch from two seasons ago on the sidelines as Brock Osweiler will see plenty of playing time for Denver. Kubiak owns a solid 9-3 record in his last 12 preseason games as coach of the Texans from 2011-13, as the Broncos went 3-1 in the 2014 preseason. Denver’s defense stepped up last preseason, allowing 37 points in four games, while cashing the ‘under’ each time.
Seattle
Head Coach: Pete Carroll (23-14 SU, 25-11-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson, R.J. Archer
The Seahawks have been a strong preseason play the last few years, putting together a tremendous 10-2 SU/ATS record. However, one of those losses came at Denver in last season’s preseason opener at Sports Authority Field in a 21-16 setback. Since Russell Wilson was drafted in 2012, the Seahawks have won and covered all six preseason games at home.
Friday's NFL Week 1 Preseason Betting Primer
By Covers.com
The opening week of the NFL preseason continues with six games on the board Friday. Here's a look at betting notes for the six matchups:
Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 37)
Titans rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota is pumped to take the field for the first time as a pro Friday evening, but it won't be for long. According to Jim Wyatt of TitansOnline.com, the Oregon product is expected to play just one or two series. Wyatt says it will be a surprise if he's on the field for the second quarter.
The Dan Quinn era in Atlanta begins Friday night and while he brings a new attitude to the defense, he will be missing one of his top defenders in their preseason opener. Cornerback Desmond Trufant will not be available Friday, in addition to running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.
Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills (-3, 35.5)
It will be interesting to see how Cam Newton plays in his limited appearances Friday, as the quarterback will wear a flak jacket during games but has not worn it during training camp according to ESPN. Newton suffered a hairline fracture in his ribs last preseason.
Bills fans won't be seeing E.J. Manuel on the field Friday. Matt Cassel will get the start with Tyrod Taylor backing him up according to Tyler Dunne of The Buffalo News.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars (PK, 36.5)
The Steelers lost reliable kicker Shaun Suisham for the year when he tore his ACL attempting to make a tackle in the Hall of Fame game. They have signed former Saints kicker Garret Hartley. He has hit 81.7 percent of kicks in his career, but has been mostly out of the league since 2013.
The Jaguars ranked last in interceptions and pass break-ups last season, but gave Davon House and Sergio Brown starter money this offseason. Though their snaps will be limited, their play against the Steelers receivers could speak volumes.
New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 37)
To the surprise of no one, Odell Beckham Jr. was unstoppable in the joint practice between the Giants and Bengals Wednesday. The sophomore receiver nabbed three touchdown passes throughout practice.
Andy Dalton was also shining in the joint practice Wednesday, as the quarterback completed 67 percent of his passes against the Giants secondary even though A.J. Green's snaps were limited.
St. Louis Rams at Oakland Raiders (PK, 36)
Unlike the Raiders, the Rams will not be sending their first round pick to the field Friday. Tood Gurley has already been ruled out of the preseason and is expected to miss the start of the season as well.
Though Amari Cooper will be making his first NFL apperance Friday, there is already some high-praise for the young man. "One thing I can say about him is the guy gets better at something every day, whether it's a step here or there on his route," quarterback Derek Carr said.
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-5, 37)
Peyton Manning will sit out the preseason opener for the first time since 2012, his first year with the team. Manning is learning a new offense implemented by Gary Kubiak and the new coaching staff. Expect 2012 second-round pick, Brock Osweiler to take the majority of the snaps Friday.
All-Pro tight end Jimmy Graham makes his Seahawks debut Friday night and while offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell says the addition of Graham won't change the Marshawn Lynch based offense, the 6-foot-7 touchdown machine fits right in.
Saturday's NFL Week 1 Preseason Betting Primer
By Covers.com
The opening week of the NFL preseason continues with three games on the board Saturday. Here's a look at betting notes for the three matchups:
San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-2.5, 35.5)
49ers coach Jim Tomsula is unsure whether or not linebacker NaVorro Bowman will see the field. “If he plays, it’s going to be a short block of plays,” Tomsula said. "It would be more for the other guys than it is for him – breaking the huddle with his voice, that kind of stuff.”
The Texans are still yet to name which quarterback will be there starter Saturday. It is expected to be a close competition between Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett in traqining camp and a big game Saturday could mean a lot.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 36)
The Buccaneers are expected to play Jameis Winston into the second quarter Saturday according to Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times.
Adrian Peterson has been suffering from bruised thigh and is not going to see any playing time Saturday. Sophomore Jerick McKinnon should get a lot of work, with the converted triple-option quarterback flashing potential last season.
Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 36)
With No.1 cornerback Sean Smith suspended for the first three games of the season, expect rookies Marcus Peters and Steven Nelson to see plenty of time on the field for the Chiefs.
The Cardinals are continuing to take the careful approach with Carson Palmer. The 13-year veteran is getting at least one day off per week and is expected to only be on the field for one drive Saturday.
NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals
An important angle when betting NFL preseason is knowing the coach's historical records in these games. Some want to win, others do not care whether they win or lose. A guy like Andy Reid who saw his club fall apart down the stretch last year (2-4 SU/ATS) will likely exert energies evaluating personnel rather than worry about improving Chiefs 5-19 SU, 3-18-3 ATS skid in warm-ups. Note: Reid is 1-8-2 ATS in his last eleven HOF/WK1 preseason games with Kansas City and Philadelphia.
Saturday's Preseason Tips
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Buccaneers at Vikings (-3½, 36)
Tampa Bay
Head coach: Lovie Smith (22-22 SU, 19-23-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback rotation: Jameis Winston (Rookie), Mike Glennon, Seth Lobato
Minnesota
Head coach: Mike Zimmer (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback rotation: Teddy Bridgewater, Shaun Hill, Mike Kafka, Taylor Heinicke (Rookie)
The Winston era begins in Tampa Bay against a sturdy defense that held the Steelers to just three points in the Hall of Fame game last Sunday. He'll play into the second quarter, so there will be plenty of film to dissect next week as the curtain is lifted on the 2015 No. 1 pick. As was the case with No. 2 pick Marcus Mariota, expect a side of miscues with a helping of promising brilliance. Zimmer has yet to lose a preseason game and is rightfully favored to stay perfect. Teddy Bridgewater looked sharp in his lone drive in Canton despite taking just 10 snaps and is expected to at least double that output here. Multiple defensive starters who took the night off in the opener will start and play about a quarter, but the desire to save Adrian Peterson for games that count in the standings remains. He won't play.
49ers at Texans (-2½, 35½)
San Francisco
Head coach: Jim Tomsula (No preseason record)
Quarterback rotation: Colin Kaepernick, Blaine Gabbert, Dylan Thompson (Rookie)
Houston
Head coach: Bill O'Brien (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback rotation: Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, Tom Savage
Jim Harbaugh treated preseason games with disdain. The 49ers were outscored 57-3 in the first two contests last year, including a 34-0 loss to Denver to open Levi's Stadium that certainly rubbed the higher-ups the wrong way. Tomsula takes over amid little pressure to produce immediately since Frank Gore and so much of the defense has turned over, creating the need for a new identity. It starts on the road against a team looking to find a quarterback in addition to a viable replacement for Arian Foster, who is expected to miss two to three months. O'Brien lost last season's preseason opener 32-0 in Arizona, but should have a firm grip on how to handle Year 2, especially since he's picking a brand new QB.
Chiefs at Cardinals (-3, 36)
Kansas City
Head coach: Andy Reid (28-36 SU in preseason)
Quarterback rotation: Alex Smith, Chase Daniel, Aaron Murray, Tyler Bray
Arizona
Head coach: Bruce Arians (4-4 SU, 5-2-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback rotation: Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Logan Thomas, Phillip Sims (Rookie)
This game will be all about surprising comebacks, from KC safety Eric Berry's triumphant return eight months after being diagnosed with Hodgkins Lymphoma to Palmer's return from his latest torn ACL, suffered last November. Both are likely to play sparingly, but Cardinals fans will enthusiastically cheer both. Arizona's promising season went into the toilet without a capable replacement for Palmer once Stanton strained his MCL in December. He'll be back for limited duty too, but the bulk of the snaps over the final three quarters will ultimately go to Thomas and Sims, engaged in a competition to be this year's Ryan Lindley. Arians has won each of his preseason openers as a head coach thus far, but he'll settle for just seeing his top guys get out unscathed after a few completions. The Chiefs are entering Year 3 of his tenure in Kansas City, having gone 20-12 but missing the playoffs last year. He's 1-1 in preseason openers with the Chiefs and 1-3 in road games. Dating way back to his lengthy Eagles tenure, it's well known that Reid tends to put little emphasis on wins and losses in the preseason outside of the pivotal Week 3 dress rehearsal. Kansas City starters are expected to play one quarters.