Preseason Week 1 Betting Outlook
By Bodog
We’ve already cracked the egg on the 2010 NFL preseason. The Dallas Cowboys won the Hall of Fame Game in Canton on Sunday, 16-7 over the Cincinnati Bengals (-3), and they did it with superior back-up quarterbacking. Stephen McGee held things together with a pick-free performance, while Jordan Palmer threw a pair of interceptions in relief of his brother Carson. It’s a piece of cake for sharp handicappers surfing the preseason NFL betting lines.
Week 1 proper of the exhibition season starts Thursday night with three games, followed by another 13 over the weekend. We’ll preview some of the most notable matchups from each day.
Thursday: Oakland at Dallas (9:00 p.m. ET)
The Raiders are 3.5-point underdogs on the NFL odds, and understandably so. They’ve lost at least 11 regular season games every year since they reached the Super Bowl after the 2002 campaign. Owner Al Davis has gone through five coaches and five starting quarterbacks in that span; he’ll make it six QBs this year with Jason Campbell, who figures to be a dramatic improvement over JaMarcus Russell, but we won’t see Campbell much on Thursday night. Oakland does have quality backup QBs in Bruce Gradkowski (80.6 passer rating last year) and Kyle Boller, who won two of three preseason starts with the St. Louis Rams last year. They match up well against the Cowboys’ reserves.
Friday: Jacksonville at Philadelphia (7:30 p.m. ET)
The QB depth chart in Philadelphia got a lot shallower after the Eagles traded Donovan McNabb to the Washington Redskins. Three-time Pro Bowler Michael Vick (75.9 career passer rating, 7.2 yards per carry) is still better than any other second-stringer out there, but Mike Kafka is a raw rookie out of Northwestern. The Jags are also rather thin behind David Garrard; they have Luke McCown (74.7 career passer rating), but No. 3 QB Trevor Harris is also a rookie out of tiny Division II Edinboro University – the Fighting Scots! – where he was named division MVP. Aside from the QB advantage, Philly is 3-9 ATS over the past four preseasons under coach Andy Reid.
Saturday: Chicago at San Diego (9:00 p.m. ET)
The Chargers have a standout No. 2 QB in Billy Volek (84.9 passer rating), but they traded No. 3 Charlie Whitehurst to the Seattle Seahawks, leaving rookie Jonathan Crompton from Tennessee as their third-stringer. San Diego also has some depth issues arising from their three restricted free agent holdouts – although LB Shawne Merriman is expected to report this weekend, WR Vincent Jackson and OT Marcus McNeill are still holding out, which means the Chargers will be scraping the bottom of the barrel at those positions during the second half on Saturday. The Bears have Caleb Hanie (89.9 passer rating in the 2009 preseason) and intriguing dual-threat rookie Dan LeFevour from Central Michigan backing up Jay Cutler on a team with a lot to prove.
Sunday: San Francisco at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. ET)
If anyone thought new Colts coach Jim Caldwell would approach the preseason any differently from Tony Dungy, they were wrong. Indianapolis went 1-3 SU and ATS last year under Caldwell; this is a veteran-laden team that cares only about winning the Super Bowl. The Niners are polar opposites under stern taskmaster Mike Singletary, although they only went 1-3 ATS themselves last year despite winning three games SU. Back-up QBs David Carr (75.2 career passer rating) and Nate Davis (83.2 passer rating in the 2009 preseason) will be vying for attention Sunday in relief of Alex Smith – this is especially important for Carr, given Smith’s history of injuries.
Monday: N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets (8:00 p.m. ET)
There will be at least some flavor of hometown pride on the line in this matchup as New Meadowlands Stadium opens its doors for the first time. The Giants have one of the great preseason QBs out there in former Colts backup Jim Sorgi, but he has a partially torn labrum in his right shoulder, so we should see more of former Oklahoma QB Rhett Bomar on Monday. The Jets respond with an incredibly deep QB roster including No. 2 Mark Brunell (83.9 career passer rating) and a battle for No. 3 between Kellen Clemens and Kevin O'Connell. The OVER is 12-4 in the last 16 preseason games for the Giants.