Props - Consensus Picks
By Judd Hall
Super Bowl XLIV between the Saints and Colts has almost everything that fans and the media could want. America’s favorite quarterback in Peyton Manning leading Indianapolis, while a lot of folks will be rooting for New Orleans after the events of Hurricane Katrina or because they really like the Hurricanes from Pat O’Brien’s.
What this year’s bout has given us is a chance to see veteran gamblers and the novices a chance to peruse a smorgasbord of wagering options on the final Sunday of the NFL season with proposition bets.
Prop bets are great for just about every person out there to keep the action going all through the game. Have you ever watched someone watch Pete Townsend and how many time he performed his windmill move at the halftime show? That’s the kind of stuff you’ll get to just shake your head at during the match. It’s also that same entertainment that has Bodog coming through with a party prop sheet for folks that want to keep the excitement going all night at their houses.
There are more than enough betting options out there for anyone to sweat out. Instead of going through each and every option, we went to Bodog to find out which props were the most popular at one of the world’s largest offshore betting shops.
The most bet prop at this year’s Super Bowl is the coin flip. Is it the most scientific wager one can make on the game? No. Yet Bodog’s sportsbook manager, Richard Gardner, understands why gamblers can’t get enough of this play.
“The coin toss is an extremely popular bet as players like to get the first decision out of the way quickly. As well there are a lot of betters that like the sheer luck factor of the bet, and feel that they have just as good a chance as the next person of getting it right because there is no way to handicap it.”
“Superstitious bettors, of which there are a few, use it as an initial barometer for the Super Bowl is going to go,” Gardner concludes.
Along with the coin flip, Bodog helped us out with their Top 10 props that their users were wagering on for Super Sunday. Please keep in mind that some of these numbers may change by kickoff.
1: Coin Toss – Heads or Tails
2: First Player to Score a Touchdown
3: Passing Yards for Drew Brees – 300 ½
4: Passing Yards for Peyton Manning – 300 ½
5: Most Valuable Player
6: Rushing Yards for Pierre Thomas – 60 ½
7: Rushing Yards for Reggie Bush – 30 ½
8: Margin of Victory
9: Total Points for Saints – 25 ½
10 Total Points for Colts – 30 ½
Normally the top bets are the equivalent of throwing darts after an all night drinking party with Rip Torn. This year, however, we have some wagers on that list that require some actual thought. That’s why we’ve reached out to some handicappers to gain some insight about these picks.
The first thing we can glean from our stable of experts is that there is no unanimous selection amongst the Top 10 props. That’s right, not even the coin flip could be agreed on by all five of our ‘cappers.
If there is one thing that we can assure ourselves of with this group, it’s that the scoreboard operators will be busy on Sunday night.
The ‘over’ was a popular selection amongst our handicappers when it comes to the yardage for specific players.
Paul Bovi believes that New Orleans’ signal caller Drew Brees is going to be taking to the air early and often. “Brees should be able to riddle the Colt pass defense which has struggled containing the oppositions' featured receiver during the regular season. Both Randy Moss and Brandon Marshall enjoyed their best games of the year against this secondary and by a fairly significant margin.”
Moss did have his best game of the season against the Colts. New England’s top receiver picked up nine catches for 179 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Lawrence Prezman, on the other hand, sees the Saints’ quarterback struggling against Indy’s defense. “The total here is 300 ½, with the over a -125 favorite. I don’t see how you can take the over considering Brees hasn’t surpassed 300 yards since Week 13. The Colts were No. 14 during the season in pass defense, although Dwight Freeney’s injury certainly could play a role here. But I still recommend the under at -105.”
Marc Lawrence is also taking the ‘under’ on Brees where passing yards are concerned. “The Saints figure to attack Indianapolis’ soft rush defense and keep the ball out of Peyton Manning's hands as much as possible. In addition, Brees has tossed for 300 or more yards in only five of the Saints' 18 games this season; none of the last six games.”
Our good friend Jason Johnson believes that Brees will go ‘over’ the 300 ½ yards, but he’s one of the four experts that believe he’ll be the MVP of Super Bowl XLIV. “A QB is always likely to be the MVP of the big game and there is no value in taking Peyton Manning at 2/3 odds. If the Saints win, Brees (9/4) gets the award.”
Johnson makes a valid point for Brees and the MVP as out of the previous 43 Super Bowls, the quarterback has taken home top honors on 22 occasions. However, the award has gone to a wide receiver in three of the last five tilts.
While wide outs have been getting the love, tight ends have never picked up this trophy. Prezman thinks that changes with Indy’s Dallas Clark…even if it’s more of a value play. “Manning at 4/7 simply isn’t good value. Brees isn’t much better at 9/4. Clark at 12/1 seems like a good long shot bet.”
Clark’s regular season numbers suggest there is a chance of him getting this hardware. He collected 100 passes for 1,106 yards and tied with Reggie Wayne for the team lead with 10 touchdown receptions. Plus, he’s caught 11 passes for 94 yards and a score during the playoffs.
One point of contention amongst our crew is what the margin of victory will be on either side. The slight 3-2 edge goes to the Colts on winning the game. How much they win by is up for debate. “If the Colts and Manning have the ball last, in a close game, the Colts have a great chance of winning with a late game field goal. So take the Colts at 4/1 to win by 1-3 points. Indianapolis won four such games in the regular season, including three in a row,” says Prezman.
Jason Johnson offers up a look at how you can make a great risk/reward on the Colts’ margin of victory.
“If you like the Colts, based on Bodog’s odds below, an interesting play would be to put equal money on these four props.”
7 to 10 points – 13/2
11 to 13 points – 10/1
14 to 17 points – 8/1
18 to 21 points – 12/1
Johnson continues, “The lowest return you would get would be 13/2. If you bet the Colts straight up and they cover, you'd get back just over $900. The better option here would be to put $250 on each of the props instead of $1,000 on the Colts. If they cover the spread, you win a minimum of $875 and a maximum of $2,250.”