Public chalks up Week 12 win
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
The good news for Las Vegas sports books during Sunday's Week 12 NFL action was that they beat the spread on the top two most heavily bet favorites (Seattle and New England) of the day. The bad news was that there was Thanksgiving leftovers from Thursday that were waiting to cash, and plenty did to the point that most books found themselves with a losing day.
"We're way down," said William Hill's head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich prior to the Sunday night game, "and it's just going to get worse tonight and tomorrow."
Favorites went only 5-6-1 against-the-spread on the day based on closing numbers, which would normally be the perfect mix for the books to do well, but the tidal wave of risk started on Thursday and carried over all weekend with teaser and parlay liability that cashed Sunday.
"Yeah, it was a losing day because of teasers," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "Seattle losing helped stop the bleeding."
The Buccaneers jumped out to an early 14-0 lead and held on to win 14-5 at home against Seattle who were favored by 6-points. It was one of two underdogs on the day to win outright.
"Tampa was the life raft on the Titanic," Station Casinos sports books director Jason McCormick said. "We got crushed on teasers, which started on Thursday.
If you had bet every teaser side on Thursday, you went 5-1 with the only loser being the Colts. While plenty cashed on the day of the game -- especially hotel guests on the strip leaving the next day or two (Vegas locals played the whole weekend card), the leftovers were steaming hard into Sunday and six of the 12 games had both sides on the teaser cash. It didn't matter what side you bet on those six games, you cashed.
That's why the two-team 6-point teaser is the best bet in the casino, and after the season we're probably going to see several books re-evaluate their pay charts. Laying -120 is definitely too cheap, and apparently so is -130. For the type of value the 6-point two-team teaser offers, the starting point that brings some edge back to the book on this prop might be -140 or even dare I say -150.
Or we could even see that option taken off the board completely like a few books did a decade ago only to bring them back for competitive purposes. Of course there was public outcry screaming at those books because bettors know it's the best bet on the board to consistently make money with. College football? Not a big deal. Pro and college basketball? No edge, and maybe way too big of an edge for the house.
But pro football, with the sharpest and most consistent spreads offered in any sport, yes, it's a big deal.
The team that did the most individual damage across town was the Giants (-7) at Cleveland. They were bet heavily with small money on teasers, parlays and straight bets that added up large. Wise guys had bet hundreds of thousands of dollars at every book on the Browns because they were close to 2.5-points of value with the winless Browns.
Despite all the Browns wise guy action, William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada reported to have 89 percent of all the cash bet on the spread still laying points with the Giants. While the Giants looked sluggish in a soft spot that the sharps had anticipated, the Browns did typical Browns stuff with the most comical play being Giants DE Jason Pierre-Paul, who is missing a thumb, intercept a pass and return it for a 43-yard touchdown. The Giants tacked on one more TD and and won 27-13.
"Browns continue to kill us. Can't they be relegated," McCormick joked in reference to how the Premiere League in England operates to keep teams competitive in its top division.
Cleveland only has four games left and however high the number is, the public is going to continue to bet against them. They've had up to 30 percent extra added on to their opponents spreads each week and Cleveland is currently on an 0-6 ATS streak and overall have failed to cover 10 of 12 games. Maybe it's time to go 50 percent? It pains any bookmaker to gift wrap out of whack spreads to the wise guys, but the public is feasting and something more has to be done to negate it.
But McCormick has an optimistic approach about things in the immediate future saying he's "looking forward to Browns bye next week." He can at least put the dilemma with all those big Browns questions on the back-burner for now.
After the Week 13 bye, the Browns get a home date with Cincinnati, then go to Buffalo, at home against San Diego and close out in Week 17 at Pittsburgh. That's a rough run for any team let alone one still looking for their first win.
Books got fucked this week. Big swings back for bettors in NFL and College.
do you guys actually believe what you hear, get the johnsons baby shampoo out, no more tears for the house, on the fuckin prop bets and teasers yeah, on the public betting the sides no fuckin way, pats loser, seattle loser, oak. loser, den. loser, shall i go on, same with college
Trust me dude, the books took a beating. I have access to betting numbers that aren't publicly released as well as bookmakers who I'm friends with. Books got crushed Thursday to Sunday, no question.
not a pissing contact i sit in a back room at 1 of the mens clubs i belong to, 4000 squ. ft, and we have some very good friends in law enforcement who r members, ther memberships r payed for, trust me we don't have bingo players back there, am from philly mike, and have a brother who's a professional gambler, since 19 now 60, who lives in vegas since 1990, the shops, yeah with all the junk they take, plus over bettors did fine, the locall guys did fine, i think i have a little access, to to a few bookmakers, and numbers also, not arguing on certain plays they did, but not on sides, there's 30 computers in this back, room, i c everything going on across the country and off shore, and as far as bookmakers i know, not enough fingers and toes to count, i agree on some, what's your take on tonight's game to me it's stinks and any one's game
You are the biggest douche bag I've ever seen prowling the forums, Timmy. Stay in your mother basement and move all your senseless posts that no one cares for and take them to covers.com. All you do with your nonsensical posts is clog up this otherwise clean site. Your a clown and no one wants your two cents.
Mike/Blade, can't you guys block this clown? It's every week....
timmy youve got another fan . 😆 another pissant comes out of the woodwork 😆 hope you have a thick skin one by one theyr showing up .
You are the biggest douche bag I've ever seen prowling the forums, Timmy. Stay in your mother basement and move all your senseless posts that no one cares for and take them to covers.com. All you do with your nonsensical posts is clog up this otherwise clean site. Your a clown and no one wants your two cents.
Mike/Blade, can't you guys block this clown? It's every week....
I can block whoever I want, that's the luxury of being me. But while I don't often agree with Timmy I look at it like this. Since he has started posting, more people have posted than in the last 7 years at least.
Look at you for example, would you of ever made a post here if it wasn't for Tim? Pretty doubtful, right? But something about what he was talking about whether it be positive or negative got you motivated to start an account and make a post.
Generally speaking as long as people follow the rules and don't go overboard I keep the ban hammer in my desk. And I am a jerk but, just disagreeing with me or posting shit I would never post myself doesn't warrant a ban. And like I said, love him or hate him Tim has sparked a little bit of new life into the site so it's tough to find something wrong with that.
not a pissing contact i sit in a back room at 1 of the mens clubs i belong to, 4000 squ. ft, and we have some very good friends in law enforcement who r members, ther memberships r payed for, trust me we don't have bingo players back there, am from philly mike, and have a brother who's a professional gambler, since 19 now 60, who lives in vegas since 1990, the shops, yeah with all the junk they take, plus over bettors did fine, the locall guys did fine, i think i have a little access, to to a few bookmakers, and numbers also, not arguing on certain plays they did, but not on sides, there's 30 computers in this back, room, i c everything going on across the country and off shore, and as far as bookmakers i know, not enough fingers and toes to count, i agree on some, what's your take on tonight's game to me it's stinks and any one's game
I'll just leave it like this Tim, you're wrong on this one. I respect your opinion, I respect your connections, I respect your years doing this. But, I also respect my eyes. When I look on Friday morning and all my shit is green and when I look Monday morning and all my shit is red it's pretty clear what happened. I'm not real great at math but I do know my colors.
We have talked about this before a little bit before but a) Bet % doesn't relate to volume and b) Vegas handle/customer base is about 1/10 of worldwide internet (offshore) wagering.
You
Are
Wrong
But I still like you. Have a good one, I've gotta go to the doctor, I messed my back up in the shower yesterday trying to clean my foot.
mike i hope everything is ok im doing the same thing today just diffrent reason . as far as you an timmy on this dissagreement goes the truth of the matter is its somewhere in the middle . meaning both of you are right to a degree . i know that you both dont think any less of each other . this guy above is sore he either takes bets or was on the wrong side of loseing bets . :cheer:
I'm in pretty bad shape to be honest with you. I've had a bad back for most of my life, it comes and goes but when it comes it comes in like a lion. Ordinarily its no big deal to tough it out, just take it easy, wait a couple days and I am good to go.
unfortunately, this time I also have a really bad cough that I have had since the day before Thanksgiving. Like hacking bad. So, when I cough it is like someone is taking a cattle prod to my back.
I'm not a pussy although it may sound like it and I can live with the cough and the back separately no problem. But together they are really doing a number on me. And short of loading up on pain meds which I am not really a fan of I think both just have to run their course.
well pain sometimes is a better alturnative that opiods . but i wouldnt suffer any more that you must . me i had some surgery recently and i refused the painkillers and toughed it out for a few days . well i hope your feeling better soon :woohoo:
i know what you mean being in construction, have had lower back, left knee, and right shoulder done, no ope's, just took prescription strength aleve, hey mike they have alternative meds, ask your doc, and good luck my friend, take it easy, now i remember the talk a while ago, that we had about you doing most your work from home now and on the comp.
1 other thing b 4 i sign off for a dinner break, hey picknose, or pickass, or whatever your bullshit handle is, my basement is probaly 3 times the size of the house you live in, my crew helped me build it, run along sonny boy, go bet your 5.00, football pools
Thanks fellas, I appreciate it. I'll be fine, I've got the cough pretty well under control this afternoon, as long as it stays away the back will loosen itself back up in the next day or so if I can keep my posture decent.
Lots of people out there with way worse problems than I have. I went to a funeral yesterday morning for a 19 year old girl so I should probably just shut the fuck up.