Public dominates Week 1
By Micah Roberts
Weekend Recap
After a robust Saturday college football slate for sportsbooks, Sunday turned the bettors way for the first week of pro football. Most all the major decision went the House’s way Saturday with the likes of UCLA winning and USC not covering, but on Sunday the public did well with majority opinion.
UCLA opened as a seven-point underdog to Tennessee and closed at +11. The Bruins played a defensive inspired game and helped contribute to the beginning of a big days for the books. Nobody seemed to have faith in the rah-rah Rick Neuheisel coaching philosophy over the outspoken Lane Kiffen style of running a squad, but the less is more theory proved dividends.
Later in the evening, another PAC-10 school traveling east helped seal the deal for the books as the majority of the betting public was on USC (-7) at Columbus against The Ohio State University.
The veteran boss for Lucky’s sportsbooks across the state of Nevada and Delaware, Jimmy Vaccaro, was very happy with how Saturday went. “It was a good day for the house, and we’re especially pleased with the overall handle. Last week was a great build up for the books and players and it just continued over into the second week, Vaccaro said. “We had several key decisions on the day, but the key was the Ohio State-USC which ended well for the house because so many parlays were linked to USC laying -7.”
However Sunday’s Week 1 in the NFL wasn’t as good for the books. Generally, they expect to win on NFL Sunday’s because of the sheer volume. The combination of the best sports line in the world with the greed of the public parlaying as many games they can usually produce a productive day for the house.
“In the morning games, it seemed like everyone had the combination of Dallas, Philly, Minnesota, and Baltimore in their parlays. Said Vaccaro. We got some buy back on Carolina when we went to +3, and same with Cleveland +5, but not enough to offset to overall risk in the morning.“
At the end of the first wave of nine games Sunday, Vaccaro said his books were about even, but the real risk was yet to come.
“We got smart money on the Rams and 49ers late games pushing those lines down, but we had far more risk on the other side.”
Vaccaro was put into the position for the late games of rooting with the sharp players who moved the line because there was more upside for the house. The combination late of Seattle, New York, Arizona, and Green Bay involved in existing parlays were a worst case scenario despite all the large wagers taken on the other side.
That is how powerful the parlay can be. Sportsbooks live and die with it. On a rare losing day for the house in pro football, seldom will it ever be the wise guy that it’s attributed to. A rough day for the books is generally when a majority of the Sunday games cover for the players paying out odds of 20, 40, and 80 to 1 that a book just can’t catch up to. Each week, usually there are about six to seven games that are just buried one sided in ticket counts.
Big Score of the Day
Chris Cooley’s score in the final minutes for the Redskins covered the +6.5 against the Giants making the score 17-23 and pushing the game over the total of 37. The books breathed a sigh of relief on both of those decisions.
Moves of Week 1: Sharps vs. Sportsbooks
The Eagles opened -1 at the Las Vegas Hilton and was bet to -2.5 by Saturday where it closed. Jake Delhomme picked up right where he left off in the playoffs and tossed four more interceptions. Winner: Sharps
The Bengals opened a pick months ago and was bet systematically to -4.5 through all the Mile High drama. Denver played great defense, enough to cover, and caught a Hail-Mary to win straight up. Edge: Sportsbooks
Colts opened -7.5 and bet down to 6.5 and the Jaguars made a game of it covering, and nearly winning. Maurice Jones-Drew was stellar and the Jags defense played very physical creating key turnovers. Winner: Sharps
The Cowboys opened at -6 and was bet down to -5 by Sunday morning. Tony Romo showed his two exes that he’s just fine without them. Long Bombs throughout the day all connecting against a good secondary. Winner: Sportsbooks
Arizona opened -6.5 and was bet down to -4.5 close to game time. The poor pre-season by the Cardinals lingers. Winner: Sharps
Seahawks opened -8.5 and was bet down to -7.5. Logic being that the Seahawks couldn’t be a TD better than the Rams, I guess. Mystery on this one, nothing good to say about the Rams. Edge: Sportsbooks
Gainesville Rivalry Week Welcomes The Vols
Florida’s opening suggested line by Las Vegas Sports Consultants of -25 seems very generous for those looking to play Florida.
“I’m really looking forward to embracing some of the great traditions at the University of Tennessee, for instance the Vol Walk, running through the T, singing Rocky Top all night long after we beat Florida next year. It will be a blast."
Those were the comments made by Lane Kiffin during the press conference to announce he was the Vols new Head Coach. When Florida QB Tim Tebow read the comments, he blew it up poster sized and placed it all over the spring practice facility. When Kiffin found out about it, he was pretty tickled by it.
"Beautiful. Awesome. Wonderful. They even put our logo on it. Free advertising and we didn’t have to pay for it."
That was all playful fun, but then Kiffin went all in and made suggestions publicly to a crowd that Gators Head Coach Urban Meyer “had to cheat and still didn’t get him” in reference to a player they both were recruiting. Kiffin was reprimanded by the SEC and had to make a public apology to Florida for the comments.
Now, Kiffin’s talking is done, because that day is now here. He put a big bulls-eye on his chest to instill pride and motivation into his players and fans. While he may have put some spunk into the sagging confidence of the Tennessee faithful with his brashness, he has also aggravated the National Champs and Urban to new heights of their own motivation.
Following Florida’s 56-6 win over Troy last week Urban said, “The season starts now“ and that Tuesday‘s practice “would be the hardest practice we‘ll ever have.”
The largest margin of victory the Gators have ever had against the Vols was 39 in 2007 and the most points they have ever scored against them was 62 in 1995. Look for both of those records to fall with no mercy given.