Public Fades - Week 3
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The home underdogs shocked the betting world in Week 2 of the NFL as the Jaguars, Raiders, Redskins, and Browns all won, while the Buccaneers came through as double-digit underdogs at New Orleans. It’s highly unlikely that those caliber of teams will be successful long term, even though Oakland or Cleveland will start at 2-1 with the two teams playing each other this Sunday.
In last week’s debut of this piece, we focused on several underdogs that the betting public likely won’t consider backing. Chicago and Washington were the two teams that were zeroed in on, as the two split its contests with the Redskins coming out with an impressive effort in a home triumph over the Rams. This week, only four teams are listed as home ‘dogs, including the Rams and Titans, each who are off losses in Week 2. Their opponents are a pair of AFC playoff teams from a year ago that are both trying to make road statements in Week 3.
Steelers (-1, 47½) at Rams
Pittsburgh erased an opening loss at New England with the most complete showing of any team in Week 2 by spanking San Francisco, 43-18 to cash as six-point favorites. Ben Roethlisberger shredded the 49ers’ defense by throwing for 369 yards and three touchdowns, including 195 yards to top target Antonio Brown. However, the Steelers head back on the road where they dropped a 28-21 decision to the Patriots in Week 1.
The Rams couldn’t capitalize off their thrilling overtime win over the defending NFC champion Seahawks in Week 1, as St. Louis fell behind Washington, 17-0 and lost 24-10 as three-point road favorites. St. Louis’ defense couldn’t contain Washington, which gained 373 yards, including 123 yards from rookie running back Matt Jones.
So why back the Rams?
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says St. Louis has racked up a couple huge victories at the Edward Jones Dome under head coach Jeff Fisher, “The Week 1 win over the Seahawks is a great example, but in 2013, the Rams had home wins over 10-6 Arizona and 11-5 New Orleans. Last season, St. Louis beat both Seattle and Denver at home, the teams that had been in the previous Super Bowl and wound up finishing 12-4 in the 2014 standings.”
On the flip side, the Steelers’ defense has given up a ton of yards through two weeks, while playing with a huge advantage last Sunday, “The scheduling played a role in the advantage for Pittsburgh against the 49ers last week, having nine to days to prepare while the 49ers had just five days coming off a late Monday night game. The Pittsburgh defense has also allowed nearly 800 yards through two weeks and the Rams could add promising rookie Todd Gurley to the offense this week. The past two years, the Steelers have very few quality road wins with just one road win since 2013 vs. a team that wound up winning more than eight games,” Nelson notes.
NFL expert Vince Akins points out that the Rams have flipped pointspread roles in each of the first three weeks, “We are seeing a kind of early season ping-pong with the Rams lines that does not make a ton of sense. St. Louis has gone from home underdogs in the Week 1 overtime win over the Seahawks to away favorites in Washington in last week’s loss, back to home underdogs here. This is quite a rare series of events and one that favors the home dog again. In fact, no team had a three-week sequence of home dog to road favorite back to home dog in 2014. It did happen four times in 2013 and the teams went 4-0 ATS in the final game, winning straight up each time.”
Colts (-3½, 45) at Titans
Indianapolis has started slow out of the gate with an 0-2 mark following Monday’s 20-7 home loss to the Jets, as the Colts turned the ball over five times. Andrew Luck threw three interceptions, while Frank Gore couldn’t handle a handoff at the goal line, resulting in an Indianapolis turnover in the third quarter down 10-0. The Colts suffered back-to-back losses for only the second time since Luck joined the team in 2012.
The Titans return to Nashville for their home opener after splitting the first two weeks at Tampa Bay and Cleveland. Tennessee’s defense was fortunate to face two young quarterbacks so far, shutting down Jameis Winston in Week 1, but allowing a pair of touchdown passes to Johnny Manziel in a 28-14 setback to the Browns as short favorites. Marcus Mariota compiled 257 yards through the air in his second road start, while connecting on a pair of touchdown passes after the Titans fell behind, 21-0.
So why back the Titans?
Nelson analyzes an improving Tennessee defense, which put up solid numbers through two weeks, “The Titans allowed 373 yards per game last season for one of the NFL’s worst total defenses. While Tennessee has faced inexperienced quarterbacks in the first two weeks, Tampa Bay posted only 273 yards and Cleveland only posted 274 yards with those teams combing to convert just 7/25 on third downs with the quarterbacks completing just 50 percent of passes.”
The defending AFC South champions have plenty of reasons to be concerned says Nelson, “The Bills and Jets have formidable defenses but the Colts are clearly out of sync on offense. Indianapolis has been shutout in both first halves and the team already has committed eight turnovers. The high profile addition of Andre Johnson has produced meager returns so far and the Colts have only rushed for 157 yards. The Colts started 0-2 last season and still made it to the AFC Championship game and while this is not a team that will panic, facing a short week and going on the road to face a divisional rival is not the best situation for a struggling team facing added pressure and scrutiny.”
Handicapper Antony Dinero says this is perfect opportunity for Tennessee to reverse its woes against Indianapolis, “The Colts have no magic elixir for their offensive line woes or injury-riddled secondary. They’re forced to go back on the road on a short week of preparation after losing on Monday night. With Mariota making his home regular-season debut, the Titans should have a pumped up crowd on board to help make things difficult in Nashville and reverse a trend that has seen them lose 12 of 13 to Indianapolis, including seven in a row. It would seem there’s no better time than now for that streak to end, especially if tight end Delanie Walker returns to the lineup after a one-game absence.”