Public wins, books get lucky
By Micah Roberts
Bettors Win in Week 16, But Many Miss the Opportunity
After getting pummeled all year by the sportsbooks, bettors picked a fine time to ease the reins on their betting strategies and unit plays. Sure it was Christmas weekend, family was in town, or you had to be out of town, a portion of the betting funds had to be used to buy gifts, but when week 16 of the NFL came and passed, many were left off the gravy train. The favorites went 8-4 on Sunday with five of the six most weighted games coming in for the public, but unfortunately, about 25% of the regular weekly handle was missing.
“If it had been a normal NFL weekend, it would have been a very tough day, “ said Las Vegas Hilton Super Book Executive Director Jay Kornegay, “Because of the Holiday season we were slow for most of the week until a major rush on Sunday morning.“
Kornegay reported that his sportsbook “broke about even” as was the case for many other books near the strip, but the local sportsbooks took a much harder blow due to the high propensity of players playing parlays off the board and on cards. Even so, all the books combined were very fortunate that many of the regulars were busy with other matters due to the holidays. Much of the lodged clientele that target Christmas as their vacation destination aren’t traditional sports bettors either. Had this week of results occurred in, say, Week 10, it had the potential of being the worst day of the season for the books.
The only weighted public choice that faltered was the Chargers as 8-point favorites, who lost straight up to the Bengals. The Patriots, Ravens and Chiefs all came through for bettors in the early games and then in the late games, the Colts and Buccaneers led the way to more profits. Those wins, combined with the six college bowl favorites that covered earlier in the week, led to some serious risk and high payouts on multi-legged parlays.
Even the Sharps took somewhat of a hiatus because of the holidays.
“We saw a few limit plays, but nothing like we normally see,’ said Kornegay, “It was more like half-limit plays mixed in with not many showing their plans until late Saturday night and Sunday morning.”
On a typical week, there usually is a surge of Sharp action when the line is first released on Monday. Then a little more of the Sharp’s plan is revealed on Thursday or Friday, with the final pieces of their plan unfolding on game day. Last week, not so much.
The Sharp plays of the week had the Bears and Raiders, with smaller movement on the Packers and Bills. The Bears had opened as 1 ½-point home favorites against the Jets, were bet down to -1 and then bet everywhere by Sunday morning pushing the game up to -3 even. The Raiders saw the same type of movement going the other way as they opened 3-point home underdogs to the Colts, but by kickoff the Colts were only -1 ½.
However, the public didn’t care what the Colts line was. They had seen enough last week in their win over Jacksonville that they felt their good old reliable team was back and that laying a field goal was easy. Same story with the Chiefs as the line was dropping on game day from -5 to -4 because of a few respected large plays, but the 6-0 home record had the average Joe taking Kansas City regardless of the line.
The one saving grace for the sports books over the weekend, beyond the Chargers losing, was the Cowboys losing Saturday night as 6 ½-point favorites at Arizona.
For those who missed out last week after a tough year, be thankful that we throw the entire year in the trash can, where it belongs, as Week 17 begins a new year. Let’s make it a good one and hope that the tables turn for the bettor.
Eagles-Vikings
Tuesday night football gets its debut this week as the NFL treated one of its home games in Philadelphia like a rain out in baseball. I thought part of the beauty of football that separated it from other sports is that the fans and players both dealt with the elements as the dealer in the sky dealt them. What’s funny is that NBC made the switch to that game from their originally scheduled game of San Diego at Cincinnati to a game with a 14-point spread that was initially hoped to have Michael Vick playing against Brett Favre, a real ratings winner. Everyone who bet the game prior to the announcement of the date change has no action with all bets refunded. If looking to bet the game, you’ll have to use the new betting numbers of 133-134.
Bengals Shed Their Dead Skin
One week after ridding themselves of Terrell Owens and a 10-game losing streak, the Bengals played the Chargers without the other half of the Bozo-Ocho show. The Bengals played as smart and loose as they have all season in their 34-20 shocking win over the Chargers, a team who had to win to stay alive for the playoffs. I wonder what the duo will have to say on their show about the sudden wins correlating with their absence.
Tebow-rific
The public liked the Texans as short -2 ½-point favorites against the Tim Tebow-led Broncos and it appeared that everyone would cruise to any easy win as Houston rolled out to a 17-0 halftime lead. Even though the Texans have the worst pass-defense in football, Tebow showed all the skills and grit that made him the scrutinized early pick by former Broncos coach Josh McDaniels by throwing for 308 yards and running for the winning score in a 24-23 win. Tebow engineered two fourth quarter touchdown drives that may give the faithful something to look forward to in 2011 after suffering through one of the worst seasons in Broncos history.
Freeman Free-Wheelin’
Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman threw five touchdown passes with no interceptions in a 38-15 rout over the Seahawks giving him a 23-6 ratio on the season in those categories. The win keeps the door to the playoffs still somewhat open with what could be a pivotal game next week at New Orleans for both teams depending on what the Saints do Monday night in Atlanta. It’s hard to believe that this kid is still only 22-years-old with almost two full seasons as an NFL quarterback.
Playoff Picture Clearing
The AFC is pretty simple at this point, if the Colts (9-6) win at home against the Titans, they’re in. If the Colts lose and the Jaguars (8-7) win, then Jacksonville is in. Should both lose, then the Colts will advance. In the NFC, the winner of the Rams-Seahawks game advances. If the Packers (9-6) and Saints (10-4) win, they are in, but should they lose, then the door opens up for the Giants (9-6) and Buccaneers (9-6), if they win, in a crazy scenario.