i read ur ture steam thread with much awe and after reading a few thoughts came to mind.
it sounds like u have two modes of handicapping and the first would be handicapping the opening lines, that is anticipating the opening lines only and marking those differences when they show up as well as those differences during their progression and degression, and this method would not nesseceraly be based on the margin of points that u would actually have a team handicapped to win by.
Actually that was written by a handicapper named vegas runner but I know the question your asking and I use it myself but with Nascar.
If you feel that you know a team / conference well enough it doesn't hurt to make your own lines to see if you are ahead or behind the linesmakers and then check the opener and then the closing number against your number.
If you feel your number is stronger than what is out there then maybe make your bet a bit larger or smaller depending how your number stacks up against the book.
As for myself I think the numbers I make for Nascar are superior than what is out there and I trust them over what I see out there and will adjust my bets when I see some value and when I don't.
Hope that helps. 8)
Actually that was written by a handicapper named vegas runner but I know the question your asking and I use it myself but with Nascar.
If you feel that you know a team / conference well enough it doesn't hurt to make your own lines to see if you are ahead or behind the linesmakers and then check the opener and then the closing number against your number.
If you feel your number is stronger than what is out there then maybe make your bet a bit larger or smaller depending how your number stacks up against the book.
As for myself I think the numbers I make for Nascar are superior than what is out there and I trust them over what I see out there and will adjust my bets when I see some value and when I don't.
Hope that helps. 8)
nascar, never thought about nascar. i enjoy desigming workable systems in football, baseball, baskets and horseraing ect. but nascar sounds like a real intersting challenge. is there a site that offers driver ratings, race grades, past preformance records ect?
All races are the same so their isn't a grading system and their really isn't a real power ranking as such but all drivers race well at some and don't at others which is one thing that oddsmakers tend to overlook sometimes.
I am able to spend a lot more time handicapping a race than oddsmakers do which I think gives me a huge advantage.
Here is a site I use to look at how a certain driver performs at a certain track.
All races are the same so their isn't a grading system and their really isn't a real power ranking as such but all drivers race well at some and don't at others which is one thing that oddsmakers tend to overlook sometimes.
I am able to spend a lot more time handicapping a race than oddsmakers do which I think gives me a huge advantage.
Here is a site I use to look at how a certain driver performs at a certain track.
beautiful. i just went to that site blade and after looking it over all i can think of to say is u better be careful or ur gonna get addicted to handicapping nascar!!! haha, thanks. this looks terribly interesting and a real exciting challendge and undertaking. iam kinda wondering now if a rating can be worked up in the same type like manner that tomlinson works up his ratings for the horses. see iam getting addicted already
This might be what your looking for but you have to remember it changes with every track since each track is unique and drivers handle each track differently.
http://www.racingone.com/article.aspx?artnum=52707
One thing that is huge and to most people would not mean much but finding out what car they will be driving each week is huge and here is a example of what I mean.
Top 30 Driver Notes - Ordered by Current Standings
(All stats/notes are in regards to Texas Motor Speedway unless noted)
1. Jimmie Johnson: Winner of this event in 2007; Has an 8.5 average finish in 12 starts; Finished second in April; Has led 3300 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 552) that won at Dover in September.
2. Mark Martin: Finished sixth in first track start with Hendrick Motorsports in April; Finish was one of nine top 10s; Won the 1998 race with Roush Racing; Has led 220 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 555) in the Dickies 500.
3. Jeff Gordon: Coming off first win in 17 starts; Led 105 laps in April; Leads all drivers with a 4.9 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Finished second in this event last year.
4. Juan Pablo Montoya: Finished seventh in April for second top 10; Has a 20.4 average finish in five starts; Has a 15.6 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 819) that last finished third at Auto Club last month.
5. Tony Stewart: Finished fourth in first track start with Stewart-Haas in April; Posted one win and eight top 10s in previous 14 starts with Joe Gibbs Racing; Has recorded a 10.8 average finish on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
6. Kurt Busch: Has posted a 19.0 average finish in seven starts with Penske Racing; Finished eighth in the spring for third top 10 with the team; Has led 240 laps on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 702) in the Dickies 500.
7. Greg Biffle: Winner of the 2005 spring race; Led 93 laps and finished third in April for fourth top 10; Has led 247 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
8. Ryan Newman: Finished 15th in track debut with Stewart-Haas Racing in April; Posted one win and three top 10s in previous 11 starts with Penske Racing; Has posted an average finish of 14.0 on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will race the same car (chassis No. 508) that finished ninth at Atlanta in September.
9. Kasey Kahne: Won the 2006 spring race from the pole; Has yet to finish in the top 15 in last six starts; Has led 130 laps and recorded an average finish of 7.1 on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
10. Carl Edwards: Three-time winner; Leads all drivers with two wins and an average finish of 4.0 with the COT; Has posted a 16.8 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will race the same car (chassis No. 587) that finished 15th at Richmond in September.
11. Denny Hamlin: Has an 11.6 average finish in eight starts; Finished 12th in April; Has led 78 laps and has posted an average finish of 14.5 on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 256) that led 54 laps at Lowe's last month before engine problems.
12. Brian Vickers: Has yet to finish in the top 10 in 10 starts; Has posted an average finish of 16.7 in the three starts with the COT; Has led 46 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
13. Kyle Busch: Has posted a 9.0 average finish in three starts with Joe Gibbs Racing; Four top-10 finishes in nine starts; Has led 250 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Dave Rogers will make debut as the No. 18 crew chief; Will race the same car (chassis No. 257) that finished 13th at Kansas last month.
14. Matt Kenseth: Winner of the 2002 race; Has finished ninth or better in seven of the last eight races; Has an 18.3 average finish and has led 102 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
15. Clint Bowyer: Last of three top 10s came in this event in 2008; Has a 16.4 average finish on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will race the same car (chassis No. 257) that finished sixth at Lowe's last month.
16. David Reutimann: Won the pole and led 40 laps en route to an 11th-place finish in April; Only top 10 in four starts came in this event last year; Has the fourth-best average finish (10.9) on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
17. Jeff Burton: Winner of the inaugural and 2007 spring race; Has posted five top 10s with Richard Childress Racing; Has led 61 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 289) in the Dickies 500.
18. Marcos Ambrose: Finished 41st in April after engine problems; Best finish (21st) in two starts came in this event last year; Has a 24.4 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
19. Joey Logano: Worst 1.5-mile speedway on the schedule based on his 35.0 average finish; Finished 30th in April; Has posted an average finish of 19.4 on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 258) that finished 14th at Auto Club last month.
20. Casey Mears: Finished 21st in track debut with Richard Childress Racing in April; Four top 10s in 11 overall starts came with Ganassi Racing; Has posted an average finish of 21.9 on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 248) that last finished 11th at Auto Club last month.
21. Kevin Harvick: Last of five top 10s (seventh) came in this event last year; Has posted an average finish of 18.4 on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will race the same car (chassis No. 285) that finished 10th at Martinsville last month.
22. Jamie McMurray: Last of six top 10s (third) came in this event last year; Has posted a 24.6 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 640) that finished 28th at Dover in September.
23. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Won the 2000 race for first of seven top 10s with Dale Earnhardt, Inc.; Has one pole and an average finish of 17.3 in three starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Has led 47 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 556) that led 41 laps at Kansas before suffering an engine failure.
24. Martin Truex Jr.: Won the pole for this event in 2007; Last of four top 10s (eighth) came in this event last year; Has led 71 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will race the same car (chassis No. 082) that finished sixth and led 61 laps at Darlington.
25. Elliott Sadler: Won the 2004 race with Yates Racing; Has yet to post a top 10 in six starts with Richard Petty Motorsports (Gillett Evernham); Has posted an average finish of 25.8 on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
26. AJ Allmendinger: Has yet to finish in the top 20 in three starts; Will drive a Ford for the rest of the season; Has posted a 23.6 average finish on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
27. David Ragan: Has yet to post a top 10 in five starts; Best finish (11th) came in this event last year; Has posted a 29.4 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 615) that finished 35th at Kansas.
28. Reed Sorenson: Has yet to post a top 10 in seven starts; Finished 36th in track debut with Richard Petty Motorsports in April.
29. Sam Hornish Jr.: Coming off best finish (17th) in three starts; Has posted a 27.1 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
30. Bobby Labonte: Finished 40th in track debut with Hall of Fame Racing in April; Has yet to post a top 10 in last six starts; Finished in the top 10 in the first four events at the track with Joe Gibbs Racing; Scored two poles with JGR in 2003 and 2004.
This might be what your looking for but you have to remember it changes with every track since each track is unique and drivers handle each track differently.
http://www.racingone.com/article.aspx?artnum=52707
One thing that is huge and to most people would not mean much but finding out what car they will be driving each week is huge and here is a example of what I mean.
Top 30 Driver Notes - Ordered by Current Standings(All stats/notes are in regards to Texas Motor Speedway unless noted)
1. Jimmie Johnson: Winner of this event in 2007; Has an 8.5 average finish in 12 starts; Finished second in April; Has led 3300 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 552) that won at Dover in September.
2. Mark Martin: Finished sixth in first track start with Hendrick Motorsports in April; Finish was one of nine top 10s; Won the 1998 race with Roush Racing; Has led 220 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 555) in the Dickies 500.3. Jeff Gordon: Coming off first win in 17 starts; Led 105 laps in April; Leads all drivers with a 4.9 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Finished second in this event last year.
4. Juan Pablo Montoya: Finished seventh in April for second top 10; Has a 20.4 average finish in five starts; Has a 15.6 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 819) that last finished third at Auto Club last month.5. Tony Stewart: Finished fourth in first track start with Stewart-Haas in April; Posted one win and eight top 10s in previous 14 starts with Joe Gibbs Racing; Has recorded a 10.8 average finish on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
6. Kurt Busch: Has posted a 19.0 average finish in seven starts with Penske Racing; Finished eighth in the spring for third top 10 with the team; Has led 240 laps on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 702) in the Dickies 500.
7. Greg Biffle: Winner of the 2005 spring race; Led 93 laps and finished third in April for fourth top 10; Has led 247 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.8. Ryan Newman: Finished 15th in track debut with Stewart-Haas Racing in April; Posted one win and three top 10s in previous 11 starts with Penske Racing; Has posted an average finish of 14.0 on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will race the same car (chassis No. 508) that finished ninth at Atlanta in September.
9. Kasey Kahne: Won the 2006 spring race from the pole; Has yet to finish in the top 15 in last six starts; Has led 130 laps and recorded an average finish of 7.1 on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
10. Carl Edwards: Three-time winner; Leads all drivers with two wins and an average finish of 4.0 with the COT; Has posted a 16.8 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will race the same car (chassis No. 587) that finished 15th at Richmond in September.
11. Denny Hamlin: Has an 11.6 average finish in eight starts; Finished 12th in April; Has led 78 laps and has posted an average finish of 14.5 on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 256) that led 54 laps at Lowe's last month before engine problems.
12. Brian Vickers: Has yet to finish in the top 10 in 10 starts; Has posted an average finish of 16.7 in the three starts with the COT; Has led 46 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
13. Kyle Busch: Has posted a 9.0 average finish in three starts with Joe Gibbs Racing; Four top-10 finishes in nine starts; Has led 250 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Dave Rogers will make debut as the No. 18 crew chief; Will race the same car (chassis No. 257) that finished 13th at Kansas last month.
14. Matt Kenseth: Winner of the 2002 race; Has finished ninth or better in seven of the last eight races; Has an 18.3 average finish and has led 102 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
15. Clint Bowyer: Last of three top 10s came in this event in 2008; Has a 16.4 average finish on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will race the same car (chassis No. 257) that finished sixth at Lowe's last month.
16. David Reutimann: Won the pole and led 40 laps en route to an 11th-place finish in April; Only top 10 in four starts came in this event last year; Has the fourth-best average finish (10.9) on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
17. Jeff Burton: Winner of the inaugural and 2007 spring race; Has posted five top 10s with Richard Childress Racing; Has led 61 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will debut a new car (chassis No. 289) in the Dickies 500.
18. Marcos Ambrose: Finished 41st in April after engine problems; Best finish (21st) in two starts came in this event last year; Has a 24.4 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
19. Joey Logano: Worst 1.5-mile speedway on the schedule based on his 35.0 average finish; Finished 30th in April; Has posted an average finish of 19.4 on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 258) that finished 14th at Auto Club last month.
20. Casey Mears: Finished 21st in track debut with Richard Childress Racing in April; Four top 10s in 11 overall starts came with Ganassi Racing; Has posted an average finish of 21.9 on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 248) that last finished 11th at Auto Club last month.
21. Kevin Harvick: Last of five top 10s (seventh) came in this event last year; Has posted an average finish of 18.4 on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will race the same car (chassis No. 285) that finished 10th at Martinsville last month.
22. Jamie McMurray: Last of six top 10s (third) came in this event last year; Has posted a 24.6 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 640) that finished 28th at Dover in September.
23. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Won the 2000 race for first of seven top 10s with Dale Earnhardt, Inc.; Has one pole and an average finish of 17.3 in three starts with Hendrick Motorsports; Has led 47 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will pilot the same car (chassis No. 556) that led 41 laps at Kansas before suffering an engine failure.
24. Martin Truex Jr.: Won the pole for this event in 2007; Last of four top 10s (eighth) came in this event last year; Has led 71 laps on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will race the same car (chassis No. 082) that finished sixth and led 61 laps at Darlington.
25. Elliott Sadler: Won the 2004 race with Yates Racing; Has yet to post a top 10 in six starts with Richard Petty Motorsports (Gillett Evernham); Has posted an average finish of 25.8 on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
26. AJ Allmendinger: Has yet to finish in the top 20 in three starts; Will drive a Ford for the rest of the season; Has posted a 23.6 average finish on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
27. David Ragan: Has yet to post a top 10 in five starts; Best finish (11th) came in this event last year; Has posted a 29.4 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009; Will return in the same car (chassis No. 615) that finished 35th at Kansas.
28. Reed Sorenson: Has yet to post a top 10 in seven starts; Finished 36th in track debut with Richard Petty Motorsports in April.
29. Sam Hornish Jr.: Coming off best finish (17th) in three starts; Has posted a 27.1 average finish on 1.5-mile tracks in 2009.
30. Bobby Labonte: Finished 40th in track debut with Hall of Fame Racing in April; Has yet to post a top 10 in last six starts; Finished in the top 10 in the first four events at the track with Joe Gibbs Racing; Scored two poles with JGR in 2003 and 2004.
unfreak'n real, i love it. mind boggeling. now are these 30 entrents the total number of drivers entered in the dickies 500? or are there more? and is the texas motor speedway where the dickies will run?
but just off the top of my head it seems to me the first thing to begin with is sorting out those drivers that can finish or stay in a race. that would seem to be a decided advantage. cant win if u cant stay in a race, at least stay in a race for the most part. oh geez here we go, somebody stop me!!
43 drivers start the race but realistically maybe 10 have a legitimate chance of winning each week.
The race this week is that Texas Motor Speedway and only two races left after this week.
The top 12 in that list are competing for the championship and for the last few weeks these are the drivers that have been in contention at the end of each race.
43 drivers start the race but realistically maybe 10 have a legitimate chance of winning each week.
The race this week is that Texas Motor Speedway and only two races left after this week.
The top 12 in that list are competing for the championship and for the last few weeks these are the drivers that have been in contention at the end of each race.
looks like tony stewart, kyle busch, carl edwards, jimmie johnson and ryan newman gonna swing the hammer here.
you mention numbers blade, u make numbers for owners, drivers, tracks, comparitive race grades ect?
43 drivers start the race but realistically maybe 10 have a legitimate chance of winning each week.
The race this week is that Texas Motor Speedway and only two races left after this week.
The top 12 in that list are competing for the championship and for the last few weeks these are the drivers that have been in contention at the end of each race.
looks like tony stewart, kyle busch, carl edwards, jimmie johnson and ryan newman gonna swing the hammer here.
you mention numbers blade, u make numbers for owners, drivers, tracks, comparitive race grades ect?
got any idea whats going on at bookmaker? they dont have any nascar. atab
43 drivers start the race but realistically maybe 10 have a legitimate chance of winning each week.
The race this week is that Texas Motor Speedway and only two races left after this week.
The top 12 in that list are competing for the championship and for the last few weeks these are the drivers that have been in contention at the end of each race.
unbelieveable. i just clicked on your forum for nascar and saw all these ratings and all these reports, information breakdowns and past preformances and and it was like when the joker was looking on from a balcony watching as batman was battleing his crew and totally oblitereting everyone with all his batgizzmos and batgadgets he looks at the camera and says "where does he get all these lovely toys" unbelieveable