Rank Means Nothing
By Judd Hall
If you’ve done enough gambling on sports, then you surely have heard of “chalk-eaters.” For the uninitiated out there, those are the people love to play the favorites at the sportsbooks. They aren’t the greatest bettors in the world, but they come out on top more often than not.
One of the ways that a “chalk-eaters” will tend to handicap college football is just simply by taking a ranked program to cover against an unranked foe. It’s not the most scientific way of backing teams, but some people out there will do just that.
There is just one problem with that way of thinking; it doesn’t really hold up nowadays. VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Dave Cokin elaborates, “I don't think there's any particular correlation between the national rankings and the spreads anymore. Lots of bettors are sharp enough to recognize that the rankings are pretty much a farce. The voters who comprise these polls have been exposed as not being especially knowledgeable.”
“The oddsmakers certainly don't have much regard for these rankings, and neither do the sharp players. Further proof that the betting world is not comprised of mostly squares anymore, at least not in terms of their perception of the team,” Cokin concludes.
A perfect example of the sportsbooks not buying into what the pollsters are selling is when an unranked squad is favored over a team in the Top 25. This isn’t as rare occurrence as you might think since it happened 11 times during the 2008 campaign. The ranked squads went just 2-9 both straight up and against the spread in those spots. We’re going to see this situation come into play three times this weekend alone.
Cincinnati knew that it would have a great offense this season with guys like Tony Pike working under center and a quality receiver in Mardy Gilyard. What was a reason for concern for Brian Kelly and the Bearcats was a defense that had to replace 10 starters. It turns out that might be a strength after allowing 18 points in their first two games of the season, picking of six passes.
Despite the great showings, the No. 17 Bearcats are listed as one-point road ‘dogs to Oregon State. You can, however, can find them as one-point faves if you shop around.
The Beavers aren’t nearly as dominant on defense as they’ve been in the past few years. Yet this is still the best defense Cincy has seen in this young season. Also, Oregon State will give the Bearcats a challenge on defense thanks to Jacquizz and James Rodgers. This pair of brothers has compiled 548 total yards of offense and six touchdowns in two games.
While that duo will keep Cincinnati busy, bettors will be just as busy backing them as they’re 3-1 SU and ATSS when playing games out west.
Another team making a trip to the Beaver State is Utah. The Utes have won 16 straight games dating back to last season. And a streak like that is sure to make the public giddy. Do the betting shops care about that run? Not so much as they made the Ducks four-point home favorites against the defending Mountain West champs.
It’s a strange thing to see Oregon favored as they are when you consider losing LeGarrette Blount for the season after his sucker punch heard around the world. Also, the Ducks were lucky to hold onto a 38-36 win at home against Purdue last week.
Of course, it doesn’t help that the Utes has their issues getting past San Jose State last week. They easily could be 1-1 right now if it weren’t for Matt Asiata running for 94 yards and a touchdown.
Sportsbook.com is showing that 76 percent of the money is going on Utah to cover. Yet the Utes are just 3-2 SU against Pac-10 schools and 1-4 ATS during that span.
Georgia has shown shades of being brilliant, despite having a lot of youth. The Bulldogs barely picked up their first win last week versus South Carolina despite being outgained (427-308) and having fewer first downs (26-16).
Now the ‘Dogs head to Fayetteville this Saturday as one-point road pups against Arkansas.
Joe Cox had a decent outing in his first road start of the year in Stillwater against Oklahoma State, completing 15 of 30 passes for 162 yards with a touchdown and interception. This will be his first road game against an SEC school, which definitely pales in comparison to anything else he’ll face.
The Razorbacks had no problems in rolling up 591 yards against Missouri State two weeks ago in a 48-10 victory. Arkansas had converted just three of its 10 third downs in that contest. That probably doesn’t matter too much when Tyler Wilson and Ryan Mallett combined for 447 yards and three scores.
It’s easy to think that Georgia will have problem with Bobby Petrino’s offense. After all, they just gave up 313 passes yards to Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks. It seems to me that the line should be bigger.
vegasinsider.com