SAMMY JANKUS
Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeups.
Ohio U vs Marshall
3* Marshall +3
What a ridiculous line. A mere three points is a small price to pay for a 9-4 Ohio team that held Central Michigan to just 20 points in the MAC championship game versus a 6-6 squad that doesn’t deserve to be in a bowl game. With Marshall managing only 18 PPG this year against fellow bowlers, I expect Frank Solich’s Bobcats to HAMMER the Herd today – so your play is on MARSHALL.
Vegas Hotsheet
Ohio
Pitt
BC
Don Wallace Sports
Pittsburgh -2 over North Carolina
Lenny Del Genio
Ohio -3 vs Marshall
Of all the 68 teams that quali~fied for a bowl game this year, Marshall has to rank among the worst of all of them. Not only did the 6-6 Thundering Herd stumble down the stretch, losing three of four, but a 52-21 loss in the season finale to UTEP cost HC Mark Snyder his job after five consecutive non-winning seasons, effectively leaving the program in flux. Interim HC Rick Minter will have little to prove here as Snyder's permanent successor, West Virginia assistant Doc Holliday, has already officially been named. Not only is the coaching staff in total disarray, but no Marshall player has ever appeared in a postseason game either. Meanwhile, Ohio will be looking for its first bowl win ever as well as its first 10-win season since 1968. The Bobcats qualified for the MAC Title game for the second time in four years this season, losing to heavily favored Central Michigan, but were surprisingly able to keep the game close despite essentially playing what was a de facto road game. The main reason was a defense that led the nation in turnover ratio, producing 36 takeaways. Coupled with the special teams, Ohio had a total of 10 non-offensive touchdowns this year, which is not an anomaly, but simply remarkable. QB Theo Scott, who threw for 2258 yards and 19 TD's during the regular season, should find it to be 'easy sledding' against a Marshall pass defense, which ranked 99th in the nation and allowed 517 yards in that season ending loss to UTEP. Do not expect a strong swelling of crowd support either for the Thundering Herd here as the AD reported that only 30% of the alloted tickets had been sold. Take Ohio.
Pittsburgh -2.5 vs North Carolina
You have to love bowl games named "Little Caesars" and "Meineke Car Care," don't you? Probably neither Pitt nor North Carolina are happy to be here for this mid-level affair as each had aspirations of playing in New Year's Day games. In particular, the Panthers were very close to upsetting unbeaten Cincinnati in the de facto Big East title game on December 5th, blowing a 31-10 second half lead and ended up losing 45-44 thanks to a botched extra point attempt. Still plenty of progress was made in Dave Wannstedt's fifth season at his alma mater as the team can achieve its first 10-win season since 1981. That was back in the Dan Marino days (was a junior). The same cannot be said for Butch Davis and North Carolina, however, who finished a disappointing fourth in the ACC Coastal Division and ended their regular season on a low note~ by losing to rival NC State for a third straight year. Even playing in Charlotte may be of no use as we've already seen regional advantages (UCF in St. Petersburg Bowl) not work out for other teams + the players probably wanted to take a road trip. The key to this game will be offense. UNC finished the year ranked 107th in total offense and 97th in pass efficiency. Losing three NFL draft choices from the WR corps will do that to you. Pitt's offense ranked 11th in the pass efficiency department behind the solid QB Bill Stull and freshman RB Dion Lewis more than filled the void left by LeSean McCoy's departure to the NFL, compiling 1,640 yards and 16 touchdowns. Take Pittsburgh.
Southern Cal -7.5 vs Boston College
We expect the anti-Pac 10 sentiment and specifically anti-Trojans sentiment to run wild here as we've already seen this number get bet down substantially. It has not been a good start to the Bowl season for the Pac 10 as both Oregon State and Cal lost outright to Mountain West foes BYU and Utah, and badly at that. The big story heading into this game was supposed to be how motivated Southern Cal could possibly be after appearing in the Rose Bowl for four consecutive seasons. However, that all changed when three Trojans, two of them starters, were ruled academi~cally ineligible and then starting tailback Joe McKnight did not make the trip with the team due to incomplete paperwork and circumstances surrounding the improper usage of a SUV that was registered to a local businessman. Through all of this, USC HC Pete Carroll has vowed that his charges will play this game "like it's the National Championship" and we are inclined to believe him. Simply put, even with all the distractions, the Trojans are too much for a Boston College team that averaged just 14 PPG away from home this year. The passing game is almost non-existent and is non-comparable to many of the Pac 10 offenses that shredded the USC defense during the regular season. In their two road games vs. bowl opponents, the Eagles managed a paltry 215 combined yards of offense and turned the ball over seven times. Remember that for all their struggles, the Trojans D allowed an average of just 20.4 PPG and that number actually went down a full point when playing outside of the Coliseum. Seven of 12 opponents were held to 16 points or less. This is a team that has gone 6-1 SU/ATS in its last seven bowl games under Carroll. Take USC.
Street Rosenthal
*300 Ohio -3
*200 Boston College +7
Double Dragon
BOSTON COLLEGE +7
Dr Bob
Marshall 25 Ohio (-3.0) 24 (at Little Caesars Bowl)
I'll lean with Marshall plus the points and I have no opinion on the total.
Pittsburgh (-2.5) 23 North Carolina 18 (at Meineke Car Bowl)
I'll lean with Pitt at -3 points or less and I'll lean Under (44 1/2) at 43 points or higher.
Boston College 19 USC (-7.5) 24 (at Emerald Bowl)
I'll lean with Boston College plus the points and I have no opinion on the total (I'd lean under at 45 points or higher)
Larry Ness
My LEGEND play is on North Carolina
The Panthers come in with the better record (9-3) and have the higher (#17) ranking. The Panthers also have the stronger offense. The Tar Heels (8-3) have several important advantages of their own though. They've got the better defense. In fact, they rank sixth in the entire country in total defense (267.8 yards per game), including ninth against the run and 15th through the air. The Tar Heels will also have the support of the home crowd, as Charlotte is just a two-hour drive from Chapel Hill. Perhaps most importantly, the Tar Heels are the team which wants to be here more. Don't get me wrong. UNC would love to be in a bigger bowl. However, the Tar Heels disappointment about being here pales in comparison to Pittsburgh's disappointment. The Panthers had much bigger plans and their dreams were shattered much later in the season. In fact, you may recall that the Panthers were up 31-10 against Cincinnati in their final game of the regular season. A victory there would have given them a share of the Big East title. It wasn't meant to be though. The Bearcats completed a furious second half rally, scoring the game-winning touchdown with 33 seconds left. That still would have only tied the game if the Panthers hadn't botched the convert on their previous touchdown. That's a tough pill to swallow and it will be difficult for Wannestedt's crew to recover when still thinking about what could have been. The Tar Heels have more to play for. Not only are they playing close to home but they lost here last season. That should make Butch Davis' job of motivating his players much easier. The Tar Heels had some trouble putting away weak teams this season. They were at their best against good teams though. They upset the likes of Virginia Tech and Miami, both ranked teams, and were 4-1 ATS against teams with a winning record - all four of them outright wins. They are now 13-4 ATS against winning teams the last three years. With the Panthers are 1-6 SU and ATS their last seven against teams from the ACC, expect the Tar Heels to step up and score the upset. *10 North Carolina
Brandon Lang
75 DIME - OHIO UNIVERSITY BOBCATS - -(If 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay -3. Never get beat by the hook.) - I just don't understand why this line isn't Ohio -7?
First of all, the linemakers are making mistake after mistake with bowl games so far, as they do every year.
Making Nevada a 12 point favorite over June Jones and SMU, and the favorite loses by 35 points. Come on now.
This is a mismatch every where you look.
Let's start off with coaching.
Marshall University pressured the resignation of head coach Mark Snyder so the team is being coached by former Cincinnati head coach Rick Minter, who just happens to be the defensive coordinator.
He wanted the head coaching job but was passed over for West Virginia assistant John Holiday. Now with all this going on how does a 6-6 team that doesn't deserve to be here in the first place focus on playing a football game.
The Thundering Herd not only lost at Virginia Tech 52-10 earlier in the year, but come off a flat out embarrassing 52-21 loss at UTEP to close out the year which essentially cost Snyder his job, creating the current bowl coaching mess.
I'm sorry but you don't lose 2 games in the regular season by 42 and 31 points and go on to win a bowl game. Not in my book.
You look at Frank Solich and this Ohio team and you will see they were competitive in every single game they played this year. EVERY SINGLE ONE.
At 9-4 SU and 8-4 ATS, their 4 losses were by 7 at home to UConn, by 11 at Tennessee in a game a lot closer than the final score would lead you to believe, by 9 at home to Kent State, and by 10 to Central Michigan in the MAC Championship game.
The game that does it for me is on the road at Tennessee. You start going into an SEC enviorment and in front of 101,000 people and play the Vols to a single digit game into the 4th quarter and throw for 319 yards against the 10 best pass defense in the country, I pretty confident you can handle anything Marshall throws at you.
This Ohio team has all the edges in this game. The better offense, the better defense, the better QB and they are ranked 6th in the country in turnover margin while Marshall is 88th.
The Bobcats force turnovers on defense and they don't turn it over on offense and that is a credit to their last big advantage in this game, coaching and Solich will have his team focused to play some football in a venue they are very familiar with.
I was very impressed with Ohio's defensive effort holding Central Michigan to 20 points in the MAC Championship game and with this much time to prepare, believe me folks this team will be ready to play.
Down the stretch this Ohio team played with passion and pride and over their last 5 games only Central Michigan took them down.
In a bowl season where the team that wants to be there is winning comfortably, I truly believe the team that wants to be there today is Ohio University and they will deliver the pointspread cover.
FREE SELECTION - BOSTON COLLEGE-USC UNDER
Kelso
100 Units - North Carolina
Tim Trushel
20* North Carolina
Marshall
Steve Duemig
20 Dime - North Carolina
A few weeks ago, Pitt was looking at playing in a BCS game after possibly winning the Big East. As we know they ended up losing a heart breaker to Cincinnatti late in the game in a gut wrenching Pitt end of season loss. Hard to imagine them being excited about going to Charlotte to play in the Meineke, versus being in Miami for the Orange Bowl. NC on the other hand is basically playing a home game and has the defense to stop anything really that Pitt can throw at them. NC really has no offense but time off for bowl practices works wonders with QB's and Yates should take advantage of that extra time. Bowl handicapping key #1 is motivation and doubt very seriously that Pitt has it and we know that NC will have it in front of the home crowd. A battle of two defenses and two former NFL coaches to boot. There is not a lot of respect for the Big East, especially in Bowl games. Go Heels!!
5 Dime - Ohio
Not a game that we will look at too seriously but it is the first game on Saturday so for those looking for small action, this might be the game for you. Interestingly enough there is a little early support for Marshall here even though it is the least bet game on the board. The line has been moved down from the opener of 4.5 to it's current 3, yet the percentage of spread bets are almost exclusively on Ohio. That's the thing about teams involving the MAC and a former Mac team Bookmakers in Vegas are scared to death of Mac money and they tend to move the line and react rather quickly. Ohio certainly has the better team components in this matchup, and the better coaching matchup. Frank Solich has really done a nice job in stabilizing this football program. His team had a lot of injuries when they played against C, Mich in the WAC Championship game. He has them back healthy now including his stud QB Theo Lewis who can do it with his hands and his feet. Marshall is going through the big post season coaching change where the head coach was asked to resign and the new coach is not yet there and they are being coached by an interim coach in Rick Minter, Ohio leads the nation in TO's forced as in 36.. Marshall on the other hand is horrible in taking care of the football. They have a -41 turnover ration. That is too big to look past in this game. I've seen too many teams simply go through the motion when there is an interim coach involved. Let's buck the trend here and go worth the better team and the favorite for a change.
ATS LOCK
10 Units UNC +1.5
3 Units USC -7
Trace Adams
2000* - Ohio Bobcats
Marshall comes into this game in disarray, as their 52-21 loss to UTEP was followed by head coach Mark Snyder's resignation. Enter Rick Minter who will coach this game, and that's all, as West Virginia assistant Doc Holliday is slated to be the new head coach at Marshall.
Kinda makes it tough for the Thundering Herd to win this ball game if you ask me. Especially when you consider that Ohio is about as disicplined a football team as you will find. They don't turn the ball over, in fact, the Bobcats are the ones who force the turnover, as OU came up with 36 takeaways this year, with 10 TDs scored by the defense and the special teams.
The Bobcats are healthy once again, and I fully expect their passing game to exploit a Herd pass defense that was ranked down near 100th in the nation in that category.
Ohio's QB Theo Scott is a 5th year senior, so this is his last chance to leave with a good taste in his mouth, and I don't have any issue laying the small chalk with an Ohio team that just played Central Michigan in the MAC title game down to the wire in 20-10 loss, but cover as the dog.
The Bobcats have sold out their allotment of tickets, while sales from the Herd's camp have been less than brisk.
Lay it with Ohio U.
2000♦ - Ohio University Bobcats
I just gave you the small favorite in Ohio, but did you know that the underdog in this year's bowl games is 5-1 both straight up, and against the spread thus far?
I like those kinds of numbers, and while I am bucking them with the Bobcats, I will support them in this game between North Carolina and Pittsburgh.
I can't get the memory of Pitt's ugly 3-0 loss to Oregon State in last year's bowl game out of my mind. Now I know that the Panthers offense is plenty imrpoved, but North Carolina does have a staunch defense, and I have a feeling with the Tar Heels playing so close to home, they will get the added boost of having the crowd in their corner.
North Carolina is definitely offensively-challenged, but after dropping a 31-30 bowl thriller to West Virginia as the 2 1/2-point dog last year in their bowl game in Charlotte, I have a feeling the Heels will be ready for the win this go'round.
Take any points they are giving with UNC.
1000♦ - North Carolina Tar Heels
MustWinSports
5 DIME OHIO