BIG AL
Boston College
NSA
20* Pittsburgh -1.5
20* USC -7
20* Sacramento +5.5
10* Ohio -3
10* Phoenix @ Golden St OVER 233.5
10* West Virginia -3.5
Sports Unlimited
5* Pitt/N Carolina Under 45
4* Hawks/Pacers Under 203
4* Kings +7
FREDDY WILLS
3.5 DIME NBA POD - Kings +7
The Lakers had a tough game yesterday against the Cavs and now they go on the road to play an uptempo Sacramento team that is hot on 0 days rest. The Lakers are 2-6 in their last 8 on 0 days rest and are 2-4 ATS this year. It comes at a worse situation as the Lakers starters combined for more than 160 minutes they are 0-4 ATS when that happens. I really look for them to struggle here again the last time they were home and then on the road on 0 days rest vs. a fast paced team was Denver and they lost 79-105.
Sacramento is a very good rebounding team and fly under the radar they are 10-4 straight up at home. They just lost to Cleveland at home, but in OT while the Lakers just got man handled by the Cavs. The Kings are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 following a straight up loss by 10+ which they did in OT to the Cavs. They are also 9-1 ATS following an ATS loss. While the Lakers fall under the situation of being on 0 days rest where they by far play their worst defense, the Kings come in on 2 days rest where they are 24-7-1 in their last 32 including 6-0-1 ATS this year where they play their 2nd best defense.
EXECUTIVE
300% Seton Hall +4' over W.Virginia
250% Minnesota +2' over Washington
250% Utah -7 over Philadelphia
Score
400 Boston Coll
300 Pitt
Ethan Law
2% USC -7
ATS Lock Club
4 Units Suns
3 Units Lakers
King Creole
Los Angeles Lakers @ Sacramento Kings
Play: Under 209
1-9 O/U this year: All NBA road favorites with NO REST (Lakers) off a SU loss...
0-5 O/U last 3 years: All favorites of 6 points as a favorite of -5 > points (Lakers).... versus any opponent off an ATS loss (Kings).
3-11 O/U this year: All NBA home dogs off a DOUBLE-DIGIT home loss (Kings).... and 0-2 O/U vs division opponents.
3-12-2 O/U this year: All NBA home teams off a SU loss (Kings)... vs a DI~VISION opponent off a SU loss (Lakers)... when the OU line is 210 points.... and when it's stretched out to 208 > points, the results are 1-6 O/U.
Sportsbetsnow
2 Units UNC +1
1 Unit BC +7
2 Units Philly +7
2 Units Houston -8.5
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
MON / TOR Under 6
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the "under":
Undefeated so far on a season-high seven-game road trip, the Canadiens look to avenge one of their worst losses of the season Saturday night against thei€r Original Six rival.
Montreal (18-18-3) is 2-1-0 against Toronto (13-17-8) this season, but lost the last matchup 3-0 at home Dec. 1 as rookie Jonas Gustavsson and journeyman Joey MacDonald combined to make 26 saves. It was the third time the Canadiens have been shut out this season.
Jaroslav Halak has given up a total of four goals while starting each of the last three games; Halak made 46 saves against the Hurricanes, one short of the career high he set in a 4-3 overtime win over the Thrashers on Monday. He’s 2-1-0 with a 2.33 goals-against average in three games at Toronto.
On the other side of the rink: The Maple Leafs have been held to two goals or fewer in four straight contests, and are 1-3-1 after winning eight of their previous 11. Toronto is coming off its fourth straight road loss, 3-1 against the New York Islanders on Wednesday night.
Expect another lack-luster offensive performance tonight.
Also, keep in mind that the total has gone "under" the posted number in four of the Leafs last six at home overall.
Bottom line: I expect the Canadiens to continue to play well (even if Carey Price gets the nod tonight) and for Toronto's offensive issues to once again rear its ugly head; when also taking into account these O/U trends, the sharp money in this one is on the UNDER!
KING CREOLE
Boston College / Southern Cal
Play: Under 46
Put the USC Trojans in a PRE-New Years Day Bowl... and they don't give a s**t. For you ATS fans, we note that USC has played EIGHT pre-New Years Day Bowl games. They have gone a PERFECT 0-8 ATs in this game! Also, we note that they have gone a PERFCT 0-4 O/U in these games in the last 14 seasons. Sharp players already know that the Trojans are 'trending UNDER' as of late. USC has gone 13-28-1 O/U as favorites in the last 4 seasons. Also 6-17 O/U after allowing < 100 yards rushing in their last game. Meanwhile, the EAGLES of Boston College are 1-6 O/U as underdogs of 3 to 10 points... a PERFECT 0-5 O/U in their last 5 NON-conference games... and 1-4 O/U in Neutral site games.
In our database collection, we have created an Over / Under set for ALL Bowl games played on the SATURDAY after Christmas. And these games have also 'trended UNDER' in the last few years. 70% UNDER to be exact in the last 4 seasons. And when the OU Line is LESS than 50 points in these games, the results are 1-6 O/U.
USCs defense is not anywhere the dominant unit like they have been. But this is still a good defense, and they put up respectable defensive numbers vs. high powered offenses in the Pac-10. They should be able to contain BC. Trojans gave up single digits 5 times. 3 of those 5 teams were AZ State, UCLA, and Cal. You'll notice, I compared UCLA AND AZ State to Boston College.
USC's defense had a couple of bad games where their defensive stats got messed up. Those were games against big time offenses like Stanford, Oregon and Oregon State giving up 55, 47, and 36. Notre Dame has a pretty good offense they scored 27. Arizona's offense is okay, they scored 21. All of these offenses are much better than Boston College's.
Considering the way BCs offense played down the stretch and how USC has shut down poor offenses, I think it may be tough for BC to hit the 17 point mark, or it will be very close.
I think best case scenario: USC scores around 24 and best case scenario BC scores around 17. That is a best case scenario score of 41, with a total set for 45 basically.
With USC having offensive suspensions, and a freshman QB, they shouldn't all of the sudden click and go off offensively. And with BC struggling to score down the stretch, having a freshman QB themselves, and traveling to the west coast, they shouldn't all of the sudden click and fire on all cylinders.
Neither of these freshman have done anything to suggest that they will get their teams and offenses to fire vs. opposing good defenses. Both teams have inconsistencies. It just looks like this may be an ugly, sloppy game
Freddy Wills
3.5 Units Sac Kings +7
2.5 Units West Va -3.5
3 Units Boston Col +7
4.5 Units UNC +3
The Duke's Sports
USC (-7) for 2.5 Units
USC may not be playing in their usual BCS Bowl, but they'll be up for this game. HC Carroll does a great job in getting the most out of his players,especially in big games where Carroll sports a 6-1 ATS mark in bowls, including 5-1 ATS as chalk. And athlete to athlete, USC still has the edge on most teams, including BC,even considering the suspensions. We do realize that the Trojans' defense was shakyfor the latter portion of the season; however, we don't believe BC's offense is explosive enough to put a dent in the Trojan horse. BC QB Shinskie completed just 53% of his passes with 13 INT to 14 TD. USC has an aggressive defensive line and a fast enough secondary to create problems for the Eagles. Offensively, the Trojans will probably have McKnight back and QB Barkley has plenty of weapons to go to. USC the call.
Drew Gordon
500 * North Carolina Tar Heels