Bob Balfe
Bowling Green +1
Idaho will be playing in their home state and should have a slight advantage as far as the crowd goes. Both teams have great offenses, but Idaho has no defense at all. In addition, their confidence level is definitely low, as they were losers of three straight down the stretch (and barely squeezed into this bowl game). Bowling Green has a great passing game and have recently established their running game as well. The Falcons are the more balanced team here and should get a big bowl win today. Take Bowling Green.
Mike Lineback
Hawks/Cavaliers Under 193
We'll back the Under for the same reasons we backed the Under last night. Teams' are Under this number in 5 straight meetings and 7 of their L8 contests. And haven't even sniffed this number their L4 meetings. Cleveland are 4th in the league in points allowed (93.9) & a close second to the Lakers in field goal % allowed (43%). And, in particular, have stepped up their suffocating defensive in 4 of their L5 games. They held Atlanta to a near low in season scoring, Houston to their worst offensive output of season, and held both Phoenix & Lakers to their 2nd worst offensive outputs of season. Last night's game wasn't looking good after both teams' combined for 107 points in first half. Cav's shot 64%; Hawks 51%. But, then Cleveland turned up the defensive intensity in the 2nd H, holding Atlanta to 33 points, and only 10 points in the 4th Q, after shutting them out for the first 9 minutes of the quarter. Very impressive!! Both teams' should have tired legs after playing last night (high energy game) and the familiarity factor comes into play, which also supports our Under play. In addition, Cleveland are playing a tired schedule, playing their 7th game (5 on road) in 11 days.' Take the UNDER.
Evan Altemus
Nebraska / Arizona Under 41
This game features two defensive minded coaches, as well as teams that have played great defense all season. Each team was at or near the top of almost every defensive statistic this season in their conference. In addition, Nebraska’s offense has been absolutely anemic this season. They have really struggled to do anything against opposing defenses, even teams with less than stellar defensive units. However, Bo Pelini’s defense has been absolutely dominant, which is why they are in this bowl game. Arizona’s offense struggled at times this season, and I expect them to struggle against a very stout Nebraska rush defense. Mike Stoops, head coach of Arizona, is great at developing defensive schemes to stop opposing offenses, and I expect him and his team to have no problem shutting down Nebraska’s weak offense. Look for this game to be very low scoring.
3 UNIT SELECTION UNDER
Marc Lawrence
Nebraska pk
The Nebraska Cornhuskers arrive with the nation’s 9th-ranked defense in terms of total yards, while allowing 11 PPG. The Wildcats also merit high praise on the defensive side of the ball, entering with the 21st-rated stop unit in the land while allowing a very respectable 23 PPG. With that out database notes that bowlers off a loss who allow 14 or less PPG are 21-7-1 ATS versus an opponent with at least one loss on the season that is off a win. It also tells us that Nebraska is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS off a loss against Pac-10 opposition and 8-2 ATS as bowlers versus a foe off a SU and ATS win. Meanwhile, Arizona’s Mike Stoops enters of his first ever victory against USC but we note that teams who beat USC in the final game of the season are 0-5 ATS in bowls games since 1994. Stoops certainly has the Wildcats on the rise but we’re not fond of his 8-21 SU record versus opponents with a win percentage greater than .666. The clincher here the fact that sub .750 bowl teams that are 'pick' or favored off back-to-back SU wins, the last a conference revenge victory in which they scored more than 20 points, are 3-21 ATS - including 0-13 ATS versus and opponent off a win of three or more points. That plays 'against' Arizona and with that we'll back the Cornhuskers here today. We recommend a 3-unit play on Nebraska.
Rocketman
TCU -2
TCU is scoring 80 points per game at home this year. Horned Frogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5. TCU is 13-4 ATS in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season since 1997. TCU Coach Christian is 43-20 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days in all games he has coached since 1997. TCU Coach Christian is 42-20 ATS versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season in all games he has coached since 1997. We'll play TCU for 3 units tonight!
Lenny Del Genio
Nebraska -3
The Pac 10 got a off to a bad start to the bowl season with Oregon State and Cal each losing in blowout fashion to Mountain West Conference teams Utah and UCLA. However, the conference has since rallied with victories by USC and UCLA last night. We look for them to revert back in tonight's Holiday Bowl between Nebraska and Arizona. The oddsmakers clearly were incorrect in setting the line here as Nebraska was quickly bet to the role of favorite, a move by the public that we cannot disagree with. The key to this game will be the Cornhuskers defense, which ranks #2 in scoring, #3 in pass efficiency and #3 in sacks. You could make the arguement that like the Pac 10, the Big 12 had a down year, but Nebraska's D stepped up the most when it faced the best competition. In six games vs. bowl opponents, they allowed just 14 PPG, 254.7 YPG and seven touchdowns. Obviously, Ndamukong Suh is the key and he'll use this stage as a way to assure himself of being the #1 choice in next April's NFL Draft. Arizona QB Nick Foles is not all that mobile and is prone to making costly errors. The Wildcats D allowed 32+ points four times this season. RB Grigsby is not expected to play. Nebraska is our 20* CFB Bowl Game of the Month.
I.S.B.
20 unit Idaho/B. Green OVER 68
20 unit Idaho -1
20 unit Nebraska/Ariz. UNDER 41
25 unit N.D. -7
CRAIG DAVIS
30 Dime - Nebraska-Arizona UNDER
15 Dime - Bowling Green-Idaho OVER
ARIZONA/NEBRASKA UNDER --- Two games today, both point spreads near a pick 'em. That tells me Vegas knows both games should be really competitive, making it even tougher to predict which team will catch more breaks to get the SU win. Today is NOT a day for sides, but totals. Arizona is not going to line up and run all over Nebraska's defense while Nebraska simply doesn't have the offense to move the ball on Arizona's defense. It's going to come down to field goals, turnovers, and field position, and that tells me the UNDER is the right play.
This total might seem low and the immediate, knee-jerk reaction is going to be to play the OVER. If you'll remember back to the Big 12 Championship game, my big total play was on the UNDER (43) between Texas and Nebraska. Final score: 13-12. Now, I'm not saying tonight's final score will be that low, but you simply can't underestimate Nebraska's blackshirt defense. They've allowed just 11 PPG on the season, and the Huskers haven't allowed more than one offensive TD to an opponent just once since a 31-10 loss to Texas Tech back in October. Needless to say, this defense is clicking on all cylinders and it's going to take more than what Arizona has to offer in order for me to expect more than 17 points this evening.
As for Nebraska... for as good as their defense is, their offense is equally as bad. Zac Lee is a train wreck with his passing game, and it's no secret the Huskers want to run the ball 40 or more times per game... and there's no doubt they'll do that here again tonight. They want to give Arizona a healthy dose of Roy Helu and Rex Burkhead, because the last time Lee took the field, he completed just 6 of 19 passes and was picked off three times. The less they have to put the ball in the air, the less of a chance they have to turn the ball over. Lots of running burns the clock, and as the clock ticks away we get closer and closer to the UNDER. I'm expecting something like a 17-14 or 16-13 type finish, putting us well under the posted total tonight.
BOWLING GREEN/IDAHO OVER --- Let's be honest... no one knows who's going to win this game, and since the line is currently -1 at the time of this writing, you're basically picking the winner if you play the spread. Can you honestly look at either one of these two teams and tell me one is clearly better than the other? Oh sure, we can guess all day long, but unless someone has absolute inside information from one of these locker rooms that tells us one team is more excited about this game than the other, it's like flipping a coin. Neither team plays in a great conference, neither team plays defense, both teams can pass the ball with the best of them, and neither team really excites me in the run game. I guess if you put a gun to my head and asked me to pick a side I'd play Idaho because they're basically playing a home game while Bowling Green is traveling more than halfway across the country.
So what do we know and how can we win money on this game? Easy... play the OVER. Much like the Georgia/Texas A&M game, this contest offers very little in the way of defense, but features two of the better passing games in the country. Both Bowling Green and Idaho allow over 400 yards of offense per game, and what's more ironic is that each team's offensive strength is the other team's defensive weakness. For instance, Idaho can actually run the ball quite well (they throw it well too), and Bowling Green allows nearly as many yards on the ground as they do through the air. So I think it's safe to say the Vandals are going to be able to move the ball on the ground at will.
Meanwhile, Bowling Green possesses one of the most powerful passing games in the country, with QB Tyler Sheehan and WR Freddie Barnes combining for more TD passes together than any other QB/WR tandem in the country. BG, as a whole, passes for over 300 yards per game while the Vandals allow over 270 YPG through the air. Want a track meet? Watch this bowl game. You won't be disappointed. I realize the total is exceptionally high, but that tells me Vegas knows it's going to be high-scoring and they're trying to scare you into playing the UNDER because much of the money came in early on the OVER. That's what you should be doing too.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Nebraska/Arizona Under
Towson St
Boston Bruins
WILLIAM STOCKTON
100* Arizona over 40.5 (BIG TICKET Play)
100* Idaho -1 (BIG TICKET Play)
100* Sacramento -2 (BIG TICKET Play)
10* Atlanta under 192.5
10* UAB +2
10* Temple -13.5
Tom Stryker
3* Idaho
Northcoast
Top Opinion - Idaho
1* Marq - Over Idaho
Reg Opinion - Neb
1* Marq - Under Neb
Wunderdog
5 Units Tampa Bay Lightning - 110
Executive
250 Idaho
250 Nebraska
PPP
3% Idaho
2% Arizona