Re: Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, January 9, 2011

SPORTS WAGERS

KANSAS CITY +3 +1.05 over Baltimore

Many believe disposing of the Chiefs will be an easy task for these battle-tested Ravens. We’re not so sure. Baltimore may have had a tougher schedule but that could work in the underdog’s favor. The Ravens appeared tired and worn in its final two games, both of which Baltimore needed to win in pursuit of its best possible playoff seeding. Joe Flacco’s passing game really took a dive as the Ravens amassed a puny 227 yards combined in that final pair against the inferior Browns and Bengals respectively. The Chiefs have been solid all season long. They were especially tough at this venue, winning 7 of 8 here while allowing a meager 14.5 points per game. In addition to its unheralded defense, the Chiefs offence has played unnoticeably well. QB Matt Cassel threw for 27 touchdowns on the year, compared to only seven picks. Even with their efficient passing game, KC’s offensive strength has been its run game, averaging in excess of a league-leading 164 yards per contest. RB Jamaal Charles led the Chiefs’ charge with more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage and even if the Ravens have some success at slowing the gifted back down, there are enough talented players at the skill positions to pick up the slack. It’s been awhile since the Chiefs have hosted a playoff game. This is not an easy venue to win at during the best of times. On this day, when it will be louder than usual and with a competent team on the field, there is no reason to not accept the points being offered. Play: Kansas City +3 +1.05 (Risking 2 units).

Green Bay +1.22 over PHILADELPHIA

The Eagles have been an exciting team to follow this season, mainly because of the resurgence of QB Michael Vick. There are other very talented offensive players on the Philly side and containing this multi-dimensional offense will be no easy task. However, if there is an NFC team that has the best chance of doing so, it is likely to be these Packers. Green Bay allowed a measly 240 points on the season. Only the Steelers allowed less. The Bears were the closest NFC team but allowed 46 more than their division rival. These two combatants ended up with identical 10-6 records on the year but when we look at the losses, one might be amazed to find that the Pack never lost any of its games by more than 4 points. In fact, of Green Bay’s six losses, four were by three points, two by four points and two of the defeats occurred in overtime. The Pack’s excellent defensive coordinator, Dom Capers, will have had the luxury of seeing Vick in the team’s season opener. If any coach can game plan for the elusive scrambler, Capers is more than capable. Philly’s final two games of the season, did not instill much confidence either as these Birds dropped a pair to less-talented Vikings and Cowboys. The Packers have big strike ability of their own and with the skilled Aaron Rodgers leading the charge, we anticipate the Packers getting by this wild-card opener. Play Green Bay +1.22 (Risking 2 units).

Marc Lawrence

New Orleans Hornets at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Denver Nuggets

While the Nuggets have been money-burners at home this season (5-11-2 ATS), they are a profitable 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in their building when same-season revenge comes into play. That revenge stems from a 101-95 setback in New Orleans in late October. Not only does series history (9-4 ATS, including 4-1 ATS with same-season revenge) suggest payback is in order but so does the Hornets’ Friday night revenge encounter in Los Angeles. New Orleans is just 6-18 ATS after battling the Lakers, including 1-7 ATS versus a foe with same-season revenge. That little ‘Nugget’ has us squarely backing Carmelo and company tonight in the Pepsi Center. Refreshing, yet simple. We recommend a 1-unit play on Denver.

Tom Freese

New York Knicks at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: New York Knicks

The Lakers are 26-11 straight up this year. Los Angeles is 5-11 ATS their last 16 Sunday games. The Lakers are 0-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Lakers are 2-6-1 ATS their last 9 games overall. Los Angeles is 4-10 ATS off an ATS loss. The Lakers are 3-9 ATS their last 12 games as favorites of 5.0 to 10.5 points. New York 21-14 straight up this year. The Knicks are 19-7 ATS their last 26 games overall. New York is 37-18 ATS their last 55 games vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60%. The Knicks are 13-3 ATS their last 16 games as road underdogs. The Knicks are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games in Los Angeles.

Lenny Del Genio

Boston College at Nevada
Play: Boston College

Nevada already won its de facto 'Bowl game' this year, defeating Boise State 34-31 as 14-point home underdogs costing the Broncos and the WAC millions of dollars. Can't see the Wolfpack getting too up for this game as a big favorite against a Boston College team that is a bad matchup for them anyway. The Eagles defense, which is #1 in the nation against the run (80 YPG), is built to stop Nevada's 'pistol offense.' This is a lot of points for a BC team that won its last five games and didn't allow more than 16 points to any of those opponents.

Scott Spreitzer

Siena @ Niagara
Pick: Siena -8.5

Siena is 9-3-1 the last 13 meetings with Niagara. The Saints have covered four of their last five games in coach Mitch Buonaguro's first season after taking over for Fran McCaffrey. Center Ryan Rossiter is an all-league performer who averages 18.6 and 13.4 rebounds per game. This is a genuine revenge game for Siena which saw its 15-game winning streak snapped by Niagara last year. Niagara is 3-13 and having one of its worst seasons and the Purple Eagles have been money-burners for some time now as their 17-35 ATS their last 52 games. Niagara lost three starters from last year's squad and only has one senior on the roster. Guard Anthony Nelson scores 15.0 per game with 35 steals and 57 assists. The Purple Eagles' only wins were against St. Bonaventure, Bowling Green and Mount St. Mary's. Both teams played just two nights ago which puts Niagara in a tough situation. Non-favored home teams are 90-153 ATS if they are playing their second game in three days and have lost at least two straight games. Siena exacts some revenge. I'm laying the points with the Saints.

Rob Vinciletti

New Orleans Hornets vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets -5

The Nuggets actually qualify in 2 systems here. What we want to do is play on home favorites off back to back road favorite losses if the last lost was by 10 or more points. These rebounding homers have cashed 20 of 18 times since 1990. A Secondary system is to play on rested conference home favorites from -5 to -10 that are off a road favored loss and allowed 120 or more points. This one hits around 75% long term. The Nuggets were blown away by a poor Sacramento team in their last game while the Hornets lost a close one late to the Lakers. Take Denver to get the win and cover.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Packers/Eagles OVER 46.5

The Packers and Eagles combined for 47 points in the season's first meeting, and I'm expecting another strong offensive effort to result in the Over today. Consider that Green Bay is 30-11 Over after scoring 3 points or less in the first half of its last game since 1992. Under coach McCarthy, this trend tightens up to a perfect 8-0 with 54.2 total points scored on average. The Over is 9-3 in the Eagles' last 12 games overall. The Eagles did finish the season with back-to-back Unders, but that actually plays to our favor here. Consider that Philly is 9-2 Over off 1 or more consecutive Unders over the last 2 seasons, combining with its opponent to average 51.7 total points in this situation. Michael Vick and Aaron Rodgers are the 2 highest rated quarterbacks in the NFC. I expect both players to put their respective teams on their back in this one, providing plenty of offensive fireworks along the way. Bet the Over.

Info Plays

3* Heat -5

Reasons why the Heat will cover:

1) Miami has been unbelievable on the road this season, and getting them at -5 is just too good to not take in this situation.

2) The Heat are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games, and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.

3) Portland is coming in off a nice win and cover over the Timberwolves, but are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.

EZWINNERS

Nevada Wolfpack -7.5

The strength of the Boston College team is their defense, but going up against one of the top offenses in college football is going to be too much for them to handle in my opinion. Boston College's offense has way too many three and outs and are unable to sustain drives which leaves their defense on the field for much of the game. The Nevada defense is better than average and the Eagles just don't have the firepower to keep up with the Wolfpack. Lay the points.

Brent Brooks

Butler -22

Its rare to lay this much chalk in conference play but we are talking about the best and worst of the Horizon League. Andrew Smith is becoming a star for Brad Steven and the Bulldogs. Butler projects to win this game by 28, those 6 points of value are enough to justify a 1* Freebie.

Northwestern / Indiana Over 139.5

There is a reason the Wildcats have shown up time and again in our totals plays. They can shoot lights out (especially at home) and cannot defend anyone, anywhere, anyhow. They have some of the best offensive and worst defensive advanced stats of any team in a major conference. Indiana has Hulls and a few others that can stroke it and Shurna and company are content to play it that way up and down the road.

The question here is not if Northwestern can get to 70, but about 75-77 or so, leaving room for Indiana to come in around the low to mid 60s. I think we bust 140 with about 4 minutes to go.

Apparently, in doing the research, it has been discovered that I am 15-4 this year on totals plays. Amazing what you can find when you dig through over 200 plays. This is one of our two 1* freebies of the day.

Dan Bebe

Toronto -4.5

Sacramento flying cross-country and playing a noon game, the young team is not going to be ready for the strange schedule change, and has struggled mightily on the road. Toronto has actually been playing pretty well, offensively, but generally gets beat on by better teams. This is a chance for Toronto to play a winnable home game. Toronto has had a very tough schedule the last 3-4 weeks, and it has made them look worse than they are, as have injuries. This team is going to sneak out a few covers against bad clubs, starting now.

Craig Davis

Baltimore at KANSAS CITY

Today's free play is on the Chiefs and Ravens to go OVER the total.

To be honest, this doesn't make sense on paper. But neither did the Jets/Colts going under last night or the Saints/Seahawks going over earlier in the day yesterday.

Be honest, when you think Ravens, you think under, don't you? I do. Baltimore plays a lot of low-scoring, somewhat boring games, but they always seem to give a great defensive effort. Well, that definitely hasn't been the case on the road this season as Baltimore has allowed 24, 26, and 28 points in three different road games.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not here criticizing the Ravens defense because it's still pretty darn good, but let's not call them invincible, especially away from home against a team that plays behind its crowd.

Kansas City has a fantastic running game and will do whatever they can to establish the run early. When they do, that sets up play-action passes for Matt Cassell who has 28 TDs and just 7 INTs on the year.

As for Baltimore, they too want to establish the run early with Ray Rice and Willis McGahee in order to wear down the Chiefs defense but also to make it easier on Joe Flacco and the passing game. We've seen Flacco have some really good games, but you'll notice those games are when the Ravens are either way behind in the second half or when they're running the ball well.

Two of the last three and four of the last six Ravens/Chiefs have gone over the total, and with a number hovering around 40 right now, I don't think there's any way these teams don't both score at least 20 points.

Free play of the day on the Chiefs/Ravens over the total.

3♦ OVER

Chris Jordan

Green Bay (+3) at PHILADELPHIA

Siding with the Packers in this one.

For those who listen to Las Vegas sports talk, you know I was on the radio preseason, and said the Packers were going to the Super Bowl. Well, I'd look like a real goof by going against my NFC choice in the opening round of the playoffs, right?

I do think the Packers are peaking at the right time, and could be catching the Eagles in a bit of a funk.

Green Bay closed the season with needed-wins over the Giants, posting 45 points in a 28-point thumping, and then finishing the campaign with a 10-3 victory over rival Chicago.

The Packers won seven of their last 10 games, and I like the fact quarterback Aaron Rodgers is playing with a bit of vigor once again. When his confidence is on high, he doesn't buckle under many circumstances - on the road or at home - and generally steps up to the challenge.

The Eagles, meanwhile, lost to the Vikings and Cowboys to close the season, and though they rested key personnel last week against Dallas, I'm worried about how the team performed against Minnesota, a team that had been displaced three straight weeks, but looked more dominant.

Michael Vick - as big of a fan I've become of him - looked like the Falcons' version of Vick, with careless passes, and nonchalant shrugs after throwing them. He has seemingly lost his edge.

If the Packers get to him early, with the league's fifth-best passing defense, he's going to have a long day.

I'll take the points in this one.

3♦ GREEN BAY

Karl Garrett

New York (+6') at L.A. LAKERS

The Lakers have held the Knicks at bay the last 6 times these teams have met, but New York has at least been able to split those 6 against the spread.

Tonight I would not be surprised to see the upstart Knickerbockers end the series straight up skid, as New York has won their last 3 games including a blow-out on Friday night in Phoenix that upped the New York road spread mark to a righteous 14-4 for the year.

Los Angeles is just 6-12 against the spread on their home floor this year, and a closer look at that mark shows a 2-9 home chalk mark their last 11.

Take the points in this one!

3♦ NY KNICKS

Joel Tyson

Iowa at PURDUE (-15)

Big 10 battle in West Lafayette, and it is going to be a Boilermaker blowout as Purdue plays host to Iowa.

The Boilers have won all 8 home games played, and they have been pretty impressive against the spread as well, covering 4 of their 5 lined home dates.
The Hawkeyes have lost their last pair of games - both at home - and are just 2-3 against the spread on the road this season.

Series numbers show Purdue with a current 7 game winning streak on their side, and covers in 4 of those 7 meetings.

Overall, the favorite is 7-3 against the spread the last 10 times these conference rivals have tangled.

Have to lay the wood with the Top-10 Boilermakers in this one.

4♦ PURDUE

Chuck O'Brien

Louisville at SOUTH FLORIDA (+7')

I’m now 20-8 with my last 28 complimentary selections. For Sunday, take the points with South Florida at home against Louisville.

This might not seem like a competitive matchup given the teams’ records – Louisville is 12-2; South Florida is 6-10, losing its last five in a row. However, only one of Louisville’s 14 games was played on the road, and that was at Western Kentucky (thus this is the Cardinals’ first game outside of their own state!). By comparison, South Florida has played just three home games out of nine since Dec. 1.

The Bulls have more than held their own in three previous games against Top 25 competition, losing a neutral-site game to BYU in overtime (77-75), losing at UConn in overtime (66-61) and losing to Villanova at home on Thursday in a game that was much closer than the final score (83-71) indicates.

Yes, Louisville has won 14 straight meetings in this rivalry, going 12-2 ATS (including six straight spread-covers with the Cardinals winning by margins of 26, 20, 20, 14, 26 and 21 points). But the single-digit pointspread in this game tells you that the talent gap between these Big East foes has narrowed significantly.

South Florida is 5-1 ATS following a double-digit home loss, while Louisville is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 after a SU victory (the Cardinals crushed Seton Hall 73-54 on Wednesday) and 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 after a spread-cover. And while you know the Bulls and their crowd will be pumped up for this game, I wouldn’t be surprised if Louisville (with a big road game on deck at No. 7 Villanova on Wednesday) comes out flat.

Chuckster sees this one coming down to the wire, with the team possessing the ball last winning.

4♦ SOUTH FLORIDA

Bobby Maxwell

Louisville (-7') at S. FLORIDA

For my comp selection, this matchup has been dominated by Louisville over the last several years and the games haven’t even been close. No reason to believe that changes today so I’ll go ahead and lay the points with the Cardinals in this Big East showdown.

Louisville has won 14 straight meetings with South Florida, going 12-2 ATS in those contests. The Cardinals have cashed in six straight, including huge wins dating back to 2007. Nothing closer than a 14-point final margin in six straight games.

The Bulls come into this one having lost five straight (2-3 ATS), including all three Big East contests. This team doesn’t score many points and that is going to cost them tonight. They average just 61.6 points per game while Louisville puts up 81.5 points, including 86.5 points per contest in the last five games, including shooting 54 percent from the floor.

Louisville is on ATS streaks of 31-15-1 on the road, 30-14-1 on the road against a team with a winning home record and 9-2-1 against a team with a losing record. South Florida is on ATS slides of 2-5-1 at home and 4-10 on Sundays.

Go ahead and lay the points with Louisville to get another huge win over the Bulls. Play the Cardinals.

4♦ LOUISVILLE

Stephen Nover

Dayton (-2') at MASSACHUSETTS

I'm going to ride Dayton laying a short road number against a cold Massachusetts team, which has lost five of its last six games.

The Minutemen opened 7-0, their best start in 15 years, but they are not playing well now. They were beaten by Central Connecticut State this past Monday, 92-63. The Minutemen were outrebounded by seven despite Central Connecticut State's tallest player being 6-foot-6. The Minutemen also committed 22 turnovers.

The loss leaves strong doubt that Massachusetts is ready for this matchup against Dayton, the NIT champion from last season, in its Atlantic 10 opener.

Dayton ranks 14th in the nation in rebounding averaging 41.5 per game. The Flyers are vastly superior defensively to Massachusetts holding foes to 40.2 percent from the field.

Dayton handled Massachusetts with ease last season winning, 96-68, at home.

The Flyers are 8-2 ATS, including 4-1 ATS on the road. They have a number of quality wins beating George Mason, New Mexico, Winthrop and Seton Hall on the road.

While Massachusetts is struggling, the Flyers are on track for a postseason berth because they have strong rebounding, play sound defense and have solid experience with two seniors and two juniors starting. Senior forward Chris Wright and junior forward Chris Johnson are playing at high levels for Dayton.

Wright is averaging the most rebounds of any Flyer since 2003-04. In his last 10 games, Wright is averaging 14.7 points, 10 rebounds and is leading the team in blocked shots.

The timing is especially bad for Massachusetts. The Minutemen won't have freshman point guard Daryl Traynham, their leader in assists and No. 2 steals guy. He was suspended from the team on Thursday.

1♦ DAYTON

Karl Garrett

Xavier at RHODE ISLAND (-2)

Payback time for the Rams who have been held at bay in this A-10 rivalry versus Xavier the last 3 times, and 9 of the last 10 times they have faced the Musketeers both straight up and against the spread!

Xavier is ripe for a loss though, as they were just blasted by their in-city rival Cincinnati earlier this week.

URI has been idle since last Saturday when they were routed at Florida. At home in Kingston, the Rams are a perfect 6-0 straight up, and catch the "X"-Men in the midst of a 4 game spread slide, and an 0-7-1 against the spread dive their last 8 lined games.

Rhode Island will enjoy beating back this conference rival that has had their number of late.

Play on the Rams.

2♦ RHODE ISLAND

Stephen Nover

Indiana at NORTHWESTERN (-6')

Whenever Indiana takes to the road, especially in Big Ten action, my first look always is to the opposition.

In this case everything fits to fade the Hoosiers.

Indiana has lost nine consecutive road contests, including its past seven conference away matchups. Confidence in Bloomington is down after some preseason talk about the Hoosiers possibly earning an NIT bid.

An opening conference home loss to bottom-feeder Penn State, 69-60, quelled that optimism. Indiana followed that loss with an 18-point home defeat to Ohio State and then lost by four to Minnesota, another disappointing Big Ten team.

Now the Hoosiers venture into Evanston to take on an angry and humiliated Northwestern.

The Wildcats desperately want to erase the stigma of never having made the big tournament of 64, being the only major conference school never to have competed. They hung tough in their last home game losing to Michigan State, 65-62.

But Illinois shot a school-record 70.5 percent from the floor in destroying Northwestern, 88-63, this past Thursday.

That loss dropped the Wildcats to 0-3 in the Big Ten and erased a lot of the good feeling that came up following an 8-0 beginning.

Northwestern's conference losses have been to Michigan State, Purdue and Illinois. Now the Wildcats step way down in class in this must-focus game. There's a huge difference in Northwestern's 0-3 record in conference and Indiana's 0-3.

John Shurna, the Big Ten's second-leading scorer at 20.2 points per game, has been hampered by an ankle sprain. He scored a season-low seven points against Illinois. Shurna, though, played only 21 minutes. He should be in line for a better performance with added rest and going against an Indiana squad that lacks size, athleticism and confidence.

2♦ NORTHWESTERN