SEAN MURPHY
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
PICK: Baltimore Ravens -3
he Seahawks upset win over the Saints yesterday is likely going to make some Ravens bettors a little gun shy on Sunday afternoon.
After all, it seems that the Ravens were right behind the Saints in terms of supposed 'can't lose' teams this weekend.
I expect this one to go much differently.
This will be Baltimore's third straight trip to the playoffs, and third straight road game on Wild Card Weekend. They won 27-9 in Miami two years ago and 33-14 in New England last January. In fact, they've played in five playoff games over the last two years, and all of them have come on the road.
Remember, the Saints didn't play a single road game on the way to their Super Bowl championship last year. They're not as battle-tested as these Ravens in my opinion.
Kansas City has been a nice story this season, but I expect it to end here today. The Chiefs blowout loss at the hands of the Raiders last Sunday was didn't mean much in the grand scheme of things, but it was damaging in a couple of ways.
First, it hurt this young team's confidence heading into the playoffs. Second, the Raiders essentially laid out a blueprint for shutting down the Chiefs offense - a blueprint the Ravens are more than capable of emulating.
Kansas City should come out with plenty of energy in front of a raucous crowd at Arrowhead Stadium, but I'm not convinced the Chiefs can overcome the Ravens experience edge in this game. Baltimore has been here before, and is hungrier than ever here in 2011 after past playoff disappointments. It won't be a blowout, but the Ravens find a way to get it done. Take Baltimore.
Tom Stryker
Miami (OH) @ Ohio
PICK: Ohio -6
Emotions will be high when Ohio takes the floor against Miami on Sunday afternoon. The Bobcats 2010 MAC Championship banner will be hung before the start of their game against the RedHawks and that honor will certainly have the home team revved up and ready for this first conference battle.
Ohio really hasn't been playing its best basketball. After opening the season with wins in three of their first four games, the Bobcats have struggled in their last 10 notching a soft 4-6 SU record. At the beginning of the season, Ohio was picked to repeat as division champions and they'll get started on this lofty team goal this afternoon inside The Convo.
Fading the Bobcats in Athens isn't recommended. Dating back to the 1990-91 season, Ohio has produced a profitable 135-92 ATS home record including a sterling 71-42 ATS mark in this situation coming off a straight up loss.
Miami won't exactly be an easy out. The RedHawks have faced one of the toughest schedules to date and wars against Duke, Ohio State, Kansas, San Diego State and Cincinnati will only make this MU team tougher down the stretch. Unfortunately, Miami hasn't enjoyed much success on the MAC road posting a weak 2-10 SU and 3-7-2 ATS mark in its last 12 games and this is one of the toughest homecourts in the conference.
In this Battle for the Bricks, the Bobcats own a commanding 60-26 SU mark inside The Convo. Watch Ohio stars D.J. Cooper and Tommy Freeman crank their game up a notch and push Miami to its fifth consecutive loss. Take Ohio.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Knicks/Lakers UNDER 212
Plays Under on road teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200, if that team is coming off a road win in which it scored 110 or more points, and if it is well rested playing 4 or less games in 10 days, are 27-6 the last 5 seasons. The average posted total in these games have been 210.7 and we are only seeing 200.3 total points scored on average. The Under is 5-0-1 in the Knicks' last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 8-3 in the Lakers' last 11 home games. Bet the Under.
JIM FEIST
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS / PHOENIX SUNS
PLAY: PHOENIX SUNS
Wow, talk about going from the Penthouse to the Outhouse. That's what has happened to the Cleveland Cavaliers in one short year. Last year at this time they were basking with the King in all their NBA glory, eying what looked to be a first NBA Championship for the franchise. Fast forward to one year later. The King is gone, the team is in disarray and after a 4-3 start to the season has gone on to 4-25 record since. And if you are a bettor, then you really should steer clear of the Cavs. Cleveland is 1-8 ATS their last nine games and 4-15-1 their last 20. Yes, the Phoenix Suns are also a revamped team with the departure of Amare Stoudamire to the Knicks in the off season. And, like the collapsing Cavs, the sinking Suns aren't going anywhere in 2011. However, all being equal, as the Grinch said, I wouldn't touch the Cavs with a 39 1/2 foot pole. Maybe it wasn't the Cavs, but I'm taking the Suns in a matchup they should dominate throughout.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Golden State Warriors at LA Clippers
Major scheduling edge goes to the home team here. The Clips have been off since Wednesday's upset win over the Nuggets. This is Golden State's sixth game in the last ten days and sixth time playing on the road in their last seven games. LA forward Blake Griffin is on a streak of 20+ double-doubles. The Warriors have no answer. LA is 8-1 ATS off BB home games. Lay the points.
Play on: LA Clippers
Dave Price
1 Unit on Heat/Trail Blazers UNDER 184
A little bit of line analysis can go a long way, and I believe we have cracked the code here. Consider that plays Under on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (Portland in this case) in a game involving two solid defensive teams (92-98 ppg allowed), after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game, are 39-14 (73.6%) the last 5 seasons. We are seeing an average posted total of 186 in this situation and only 180.8 total points scored on average. Bet the Under.
Tony George
Green Bay +2.5
At days end the defense of Green Bay is stellar and played very well as of late (17 ppg last 3), and defense wins games like this. Philly off a loss and resting players last week, as seen by New Orleans on Saturday that is not a good thing. I like the Packers to upset here, the moneyline even for a small wager as well outside of the line play.
Philly just 4-4 SU at home this year and Green Bay a cover machine at 7-3 ATS their last 10 games. Philly will have sucess running the ball but Green Bay's secondary does not allow big plays or people passing all over them. I think they make the difference today. Both teams will score some points, but Rodgers the better QB here in terms of stretching the field vertically in my opinion and it may come down to a late drive and the Philly secondary suspect. Gonna be a good games guys, I look for a small upset here.
SPORTS WAGERS
TORONTO –6½ over Sacramento
Early in the year the Raps went into Sacramento and built a 24-point lead before a second half meltdown did them in. That was some time ago but the Raps won’t soon forget it and this is a great opportunity for a payback. You see, the Kings always get blown out at this venue. The last four times they’ve played here they lost 115-104, 113-97, 116-91 and 101-85. This is also the first game of a trip for the Kings, meaning this 1:00 PM EST start will feel like a 10:00 AM start for them. The Raps have been playing early Sunday games for years and this season is no exception so they’re very used to it. The Raps are undeniably the most dangerous “bad” team in the NBA. They have nine guys that all can score 20 or more and don’t need one or two guys every night to carry them. The Raps problem is defense or lack thereof and with Tyreke Evans out the Kings are goijng to need big games from DeMarcus Cousins and Omri Casspi to keep pace. History suggests that the Kings interest in playing in Toronto is low and their two road wins all season does nothing to suggest otherwise. Play: Toronto –6½ (Risking 2.10 units to win 2).
PHOENIX –10½ over Cleveland
Phoenix has been awful since the trade with one win in eight games. Should they lose here they’ll be booed off the court but that’s not going to happen. As bad as the Suns are playing they still have much more talent than the Cav’s and besides that, Cleveland can barely field a team for this one. All of their good players are out and that includes Anderson Varejao, Daniel Gibson and Anthony Parker. Cleveland has dropped nine in a row and virtually has no shot of even competing against the desperately hungry Suns. It would be different if the Suns were winning games in that they might take the Cav’s lightly but that’s not even close. Phoenix has to win this game and they have to win it big. They’ll take all of their frustrations out on this feeble intruder and they won’t let up. The Suns couldn’t have handpicked a riper opponent, both physically and mentally, to beat up on. Play: Phoenix –10½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Kansas St. +1.03 over OKLAHOMA ST.
1:00 PM EST. The absolute best thing about this matchup is that the Cowboys come in with almost the identical record as K-State at 12-2. That record has this line very beatable because the Wildcats are simply the vastly superior squad. In other words if these two were to meet 20 times in Oklahoma the Wildcats would likely win 17 of them. The Cowboys two losses this season was to the only two good teams they faced, Va Tech and Gonzaga, the latter by 19. Other than that, OSU has played a bunch of nobodies and even LaSalle took these imposters to double OT. The Wildcats beat Gonzaga by 17 and Virginia Tech by 16. Those two wins alone give them a ton more credibility than their opponents today. KSU also lost to #1 Duke, #24 Florida and to UNLV but that’s nothing to be embarrassed about. K-State is big upfront and in fact, rank #5 in the nation in rebounding while OSU ranks 112 th. This is another quality opponent that the Cowboys will face and thus far they have not even come close to proving they can play with this caliber. It’s also the start of the Big-12 schedule for both teams and what that means is both clubs will be fired up. A jacked up, well-coached and superior Wildcats team should have no trouble taking care of business today. Play: #527 Kansas St +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
Dallas +1.13 over MINNESOTA
The Wild have won four in a row and they beat Boston and Pitt, both on the road, in their last two games. The fact that this team is very warm right now has their stock way up and provides us with some opportunity to cash in against them. We’ve said it from the beginning of the year that the Wild are one of the least talented teams in the NHL and nothing has changed. They truly have a genie following them around, as they get more lucky or fluky goals than any team. They’re really not that good to be winning two or three in a row, let alone five. They also played on the road last night and this one is an earlier start that begins at 6:00 PM EST. It’s Minnesota’s fifth game in seven days, its third in four days and the tail end of back-to-backs. The Stars are way more talented and they come in hot with a day off between games. The Stars have won 15 of their last 22 games and they also own a very impressive road record. Dallas has beaten the Wild 19 of the last 26 times they’ve played and very seldom lose in this building. Better team in a better situation, plus a price gets the call. Play: Dallas +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
Jack Jones
New York Knicks +6.5
The Los Angeles Lakers are playing better, but they still have not been dominant here over the past month. In fact, fading the defending champs has been a very prosperous move at the pay window. The Lakers are just 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games overall, and are too heavily favored tonight against a much-improved New York Knicks team that has proven they can play with anyone. The Knicks are 21-14 SU & 23-11-1 ATS in all games this season.
New York has been particularly tough on the road, going 11-7 SU & an amazing 14-4 ATS this year. They have won three straight with home victories over the Pacers and Spurs followed by an impressive 121-96 road win at Phoenix two nights ago. New York is a remarkable 17-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins this season, including 9-1 ATS off a road win this year. This team has been streaky, and I would not be surprised one bit to see them go into L.A. tonight and steal a road win for their fourth straight victory. Bet the Knicks Sunday.
Sam Martin
Cleveland Cavaliers at Phoenix Suns
Prediction: Phoenix Suns
We've faded Cleveland a number of times both here in our member picks as well as some premium selections, and as the saying goes: "If it ain't broken, don't fix it!" The linesmakers just can't catch up to how bad this Cleveland team is, as they enter this matchup on a current nine-game losing skid with eight of those losses coming by at least nine points. Phoenix is struggling themselves, but if there's any team they can beat up on and run up the score on right now it's this Cleveland team that is clearly playing with no motivation whatsoever.
Black Widow
1* on Los Angeles Clippers -3.5
We'll take the Clippers Sunday as just a small home favorite against the Golden State Warriors. The Clippers are finally playing up to their potential, going 6-3 in their last nine games overall with very solid wins against the likes of Chicago, Phoenix and Denver. Los Angeles is playing on 3 days' rest so they'll be fresh and ready to go tonight. Golden State is just 6-15 on the road this year, where they are scoring 99.2 points/game and allowing a ridiculous 106.3 points/game. The Warriors are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. The Clippers are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after playing 2 consecutive home games this season. The Clippers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Los Angeles is 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 vs. Western Conference foes. Take the Clippers and lay the points.