Dallas Cowboys vs. New Orleans Saints
The fans at Louisiana Superdome will be treated to a game between the Dallas Cowboys and the New Orleans Saints when they take their seats on Saturday.
Oddsmakers currently have the Saints listed as 7½-point favorites versus the Cowboys, while the game's total is sitting at 53½.
The Cowboys lost to San Diego 20-17 as a 3.5-point favorite in Week 14. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (48.5).
Tony Romo passed for 249 yards with two touchdowns for Dallas and Miles Austin had six receptions for 71 yards and a TD.
The Saints defeated Atlanta 26-23 as a 10-point favorite in Week 14. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (50).
Drew Brees passed for 296 yards with three touchdowns for New Orleans, while Reggie Bush caught six passes for 46 yards with two touchdowns in the win.
Current streak:
Dallas has lost 2 straight games.
New Orleans has won 13 straight games.
Team records:
Dallas: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS
New Orleans: 13-0 SU, 8-5 ATS
Dallas most recently:
When playing in December are 3-7
When playing on turf are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 6-4
New Orleans most recently:
When playing in December are 6-4
When playing on turf are 9-1
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 10-0
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 10 games when playing New Orleans
Dallas is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Next up:
Dallas at Washington, Sunday, December 27
New Orleans home to Tampa Bay, Sunday, December 27
New Mexico Bowl: Wyoming Cowboys vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
The Wyoming Cowboys and the Fresno State Bulldogs will both be gunning for a victory when they meet at University Stadium in the New Mexico Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Bulldogs listed as 11-point favorites versus the Cowboys, while the game's total is sitting at 55.
Ian Watts kicked a field goal with under two minutes remaining to give Wyoming a 17-16 victory over Colorado State in Week 13. Wyoming won that game as a 2.5-point underdog, while the teams played UNDER the posted total of 48.5.
QB Austyn Carta-Samuels ran for two touchdowns in that win.
Ryan Colburn's pass to Devan Cunningham completed a two-point conversion with two seconds left to give Fresno State a 53-52 win over Illinois in Week 14.
The Bulldogs covered the 2-point spread, while the final score played OVER the day's posted total of 59.5.
Team records:
Wyoming: 6-6 SU, 8-3 ATS
Fresno State: 8-4 SU, 6-4-1 ATS
Wyoming most recently:
When playing in December are 1-1
When playing on grass are 3-7
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing outside the conference are 6-4
Fresno State most recently:
When playing in December are 6-4
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing outside the conference are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Wyoming is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Wyoming's last 9 games
Wyoming is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Fresno State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Fresno State's last 6 games
St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida Knights vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
The Central Florida Knights and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights will both be trying to pick up a win when they battle at Tropicana Field in the St. Petersburg Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Scarlet Knights listed as 2½-point favorites versus the Knights, while the game's total is sitting at 44.
Brett Hodges posted two touchdown passes to lead Central Florida to a 34-27 win over UAB in Week 13.
The Knights covered the 3-point spread, while the final score played OVER the day's posted total of 53.
Tom Savage threw for 153 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions for Rutgers in a 24-21 loss to West Virginia in Week 14.
The Scarlet Knights did not cover the 1.5-point spread, while the final score played just UNDER the posted total of 43.5.
Team records:
Central Florida: 8-4 SU, 9-2 ATS
Rutgers: 8-4 SU, 5-5 ATS
Central Florida most recently:
When playing in December are 1-3
When playing on turf are 5-5
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the conference are 3-7
Rutgers most recently:
When playing in December are 3-3
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 9-1
When playing outside the conference are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
Central Florida is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Central Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Central Florida's last 6 games
Rutgers is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games
Rutgers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
DALLAS (8 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (13 - 0)
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DALLAS is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games in December games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
WYOMING (6 - 6) vs. FRESNO ST (8 - 4)
Top Trends for this game.
WYOMING is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
UCF (8 - 4) vs. RUTGERS (8 - 4)
Top Trends for this game.
UCF is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
UCF is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
UCF is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
DALLAS vs. NEW ORLEANS
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Dallas is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
WYOMING vs. FRESNO STATE
Wyoming is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Wyoming is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Fresno State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Fresno State's last 6 games
CENTRAL FLORIDA vs. RUTGERS
Central Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Central Florida is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Rutgers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Rutgers is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games
INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE
INDIANAPOLIS: 6-0 ATS on Thursdays
JACKSONVILLE: 3-12 ATS in home games
Wyoming vs. Fresno State
Wyoming
7-3 ATS as an underdog
11-7 ATS off road conference win
Fresno State
2-11 ATS after allowing 50+ points
2-11 ATS off a road game
Central Florida vs. Rutgers
Central Florida
6-0 ATS Away off SU win
9-2 ATS this season
Rutgers
6-1 Under on turf
20-7 Under vs. non-conference
What Bettors Need To Know: New Mexico Bowl
By Lee Kostroski
Line movements
The line opened with Fresno State as an 11-point favorite and has climbed a bit to 11.5. The total is split most places right now at 54.5 and 55.
The skinny
Wyoming’s Dave Christenson, in his first season as head coach, has led the Cowboys to their first bowl appearance since 2004 and just their second appearance since 1993. They defeated Colorado State in their final game to finish the season with a 6-6 record (8-3 ATS). Four of their six losses came against Top 25 teams (Texas, TCU, Utah, BYU), losing by the combined score of 160-30 in those four games.
Fresno State's bowl tradition continues with a second straight trip to the New Mexico Bowl and its 22nd bowl appearance overall. The Bulldogs will be playing in a bowl for the 10th time in the last 11 seasons.
They are winners of seven of their last eight games to finish with an 8-4 overall record (7-4 ATS). Their four losses on the year were to Cincinnati, Boise State, Wisconsin and Nevada, four teams who combined to finish 42-7 during the regular season, and are all bowl eligible.
Offensive struggles
Wyoming finished 111th in scoring offense (16 points per game) and 112th in total offense. The Cowboys averaged just 10 PPG in their six losses to teams that combined to finish 54-19. In their six wins, however, they averaged 29 PPG.
Their quarterback, freshman Austyn Carta-Samuels, finished as the MWC Freshmen of the Year and threw for just 1700 yards and seven touchdowns and they didn’t have a single player rush for 100 yards in a game this season.
Defensive struggles
The Bulldogs can be exposed on the ground. They rank 111th in rush defense, allowing 212 yards per game. Granted, they played some phenomenal rushing teams (Nevada, Wisconsin, Boise State). If Wyoming is to win this game, it will have to expose this weakness.
Wyoming allowed 32 PPG to its six opponents with winning records this season (all losses). The Cowboys were outgained in every one of those games and allowed a combined 427 YPG in those six games (lost the yardage battle by 222 YPG).
Fresno’s star
Fresno has one of the most prolific offenses and it starts with running back Ryan Mathews. The junior finished second in the nation with 1668 rushing yards on the season. He also had 17 touchdowns and averaged 6.8 yards per carry.
Mathews got injured late in the year and had limited time vs. Nevada and missed the Louisiana Tech game because of a concussion. He came back for the final game and ended the regular season with a 173-yard, three-touchdown performance.
Bulldogs junior QB Ryan Coburn had an exceptional first year under center. On the year, he threw for 2300 yards and 18 touchdowns while completing over 60 percent of his passes. He leads a Bulldogs offense that is ranked No. 14 in scoring offense in college football.
Trends
Fresno State is 4-2 ATS in its last six bowl games. The Bulldogs are also just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games as a favorite and 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. MWC. Wyoming is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog and 14-6 ATS in its last 20 non-conference games. But the Cowboys are just 3-13-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Wyoming has finished under in 13 of its last 19 non-conference games. Fresno State has finished over in five of its last six non-conference games and six of its last eight bowl games.
What Bettors Need To Know: St. Petersburg Bowl
By Marc Lawrence
The second renewal of the St. Petersburg Bowl kicks off Saturday evening at Tropicana Field when Central Florida meets Rutgers in a battle of teams that finished the season with identical 8-4 records. The game is televised on ESPN.
Game time temperatures are expected to be in the low-to-mid 50s, with winds 10-15 mph out of the northwest. There is a 10 percent chance of rain.
How they got here
When Rutgers' football players left Piscataway, New Jersey Tuesday morning it was 40 degrees and raining. When they arrived later that afternoon it was 83 degrees with clear skies.
"I love it down here. It's just gorgeous," coach Greg Schiano said.
The trip was a thousand miles more than the Central Florida traveled. UCF’s journey was 97 miles via bus from Orlando to St. Petersburg.
Because of the close proximity from the campus in Orlando, UCF will hold a home-field advantage. It’s not quite like playing at Bright House Networks Stadium, where the Knights are 13-6 (6-1 this season) since it opened in 2007, but the fan support will be in Central Florida’s favor.
“We are thrilled to have this opportunity to play so close to our fans in St. Petersburg," head coach George O'Leary said. "It will be great to have a large fan base behind us as we go for our ninth victory against a quality team from the Big East Conference. It is a great opportunity and one that I know our players wanted."
Rutgers finished the 2009 season in a three-way tie for fourth place in the Big East Conference. UCF finished in second place in the Conference USA East Division.
Bowl history
In its brief two-year history, UCF is 1-1 in bowl games, with the underdog taking home the money in both contests. The Knights’ last bowl appearance was in the 2007 Liberty Bowl where they lost 10-3 to Mississippi State as 3-point favorites.
Rutgers is bowling for the fifth straight year. The Scarlet Knights are 3-2 all-time in bowl games, including 3-1 straight up and against the spread behind Schiano. They beat NC State, 29-23, as 6.5-point favorites in last year’s Papajohns.com Bowl.
Good Knights
UCF owns the fifth best rush defense in the land. The Knights allow 85 rushing yards per game, holding eight of their 12 opponents under 100 rushing yards this season.
Central Florida rewarded its backers in 2009, cashing nine of its 11 lined games, going 4-2 ATS against fellow bowl teams.
Rutgers defense ranks No. 18 in the land, allowing 312 yards per game. The Scarlet Knights held four opponents to season low – or second lowest – yards this year.
Role call
UCF sophomore RB Brynn Harvey rushed for 1077 yards, gaining more than 100 yards five times this season. Harvey’s 14 rushing touchdowns in 2009 are tied for second-most in Knights history.
Central Florida senior quarterback Brett Hodges, a Wake Forest transfer, compiled a 7-2 record as a starter and helped turn around a unit that ranked last in the nation in total offense in 2008.
Rutgers 6-foot-5 freshman QB Tom Savage completed 94 of 84 attempts for 1268 yards and 10 TDs this season. His prime target, senior receiver Timmy Brown led the Knights with 51 receptions for 1051 yards and eight touchdowns. Brown missed most of the season finale against West Virginia with a badly sprained ankle but is expected to play tonight.
In his honor
UCF coach O'Leary lost his brother, Terry, to a battle with cancer last Friday.
"I still think it's a dream," O'Leary said. "It's hard to realize he's gone."
O'Leary took time off from St. Petersburg Bowl preparations to join his family and long-time friends for memorial services last Sunday and Monday in Walton, N.Y.
"Probably one of the tougher things I had to do was the eulogy," O'Leary said.
Handicap this
The dog is 2-0 SU and ATS in Central Florida bowl history.
UCF is 0-13 SU and 2-11 ATS versus Big East opposition.
Rutgers is 13-2 ATS with a winning record versus non-conference opponents under Schiano.
New Mexico Bowl
By Judd Hall
Casual college football fans are all waiting for the tail end of the bowl season when there are several big games on the agenda. Gamblers, on the other hand, have had to wait a full two weeks to finally get some games to sweat out. The betting public will be doing just that as the Bulldogs take on Wyoming (6-6 straight up, 8-3 against the spread) at the New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque.
Don’t feel bad if you did a double take when seeing the Cowboys make a bowl game. This is the same team that went 4-8 just the year before. Not a bad opening campaign for the former offensive coordinator for Missouri, Dave Christensen.
The first order of business for Christensen this year was to throw out the old read-option offense that was in place for Wyoming last season and install a spread attack. There was a marked improvement as the Cowboys went from scoring 12.7 points per game in 2008 to 16.9 this year. While that is a good start, you have to realize that only ranked 111th nationally.
I guess we shouldn’t be so shocked that the ‘Boys are scoring so little when they’re ranking 86th on the ground (128.0 yards per game) and 103rd in passing offense (170.7 YPG).
Wyoming has hitched its offense to true freshman quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels. The youngster from San Jose, California has completed 59 percent of his passes for 1,752 yards and seven touchdowns. That doesn’t sound like much, but the fact that he helped guided the ‘Boys to at least 29 point five times this season (all wins, by the way) is not bad…especially when you consider the Cowboys scored more than that just once in 2008.
Something else the Cowboys are doing well with is not giving the ball away. Wyoming has coughed the ball up just 13 times in 2009. That’s helped them rank 20th in the country in turnover margin. VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Dave Cokin believes this could be a key for the ‘Pokes in pulling off the upset. “Wyoming has been a disciplined team with the ball this year and that will help them against the Bulldogs. That is, of course, provided that they can sustain drives.”
What could prove to be Wyoming’s undoing is the fact that they can’t move the chains when they need to do it. The ‘Pokes are 102nd in the nation on converting third-down, cashing in 33.9 percent of the time.
Fresno State (8-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) doesn’t have any problems on offense this season, gaining 435.9 YPG on the attack this season to rank 19th nationally. The bulk of that yardage came from the legs of Ryan Matthews.
Matthews had been sidelined much of the last two seasons with injuries. However, Matthews has stayed healthy all year long and been extremely productive. He was the nation’s best running back, picking up 1,664 yards and 17 touchdowns during his junior campaign.
Ryan Colburn has also proven that he can help the Bulldogs move the ball through the air, when needed. He has thrown for 2,333 yards through the air with 18 scores and a 60.2 completion percentage.
Both teams do have one thing in common in the fact that they don’t have the best defenses to face top talent. Fresno State faced off with four teams that were either in the Associated Press Top 25 or in a BCS conference (Wisconsin, Boise State, Cincinnati and Illinois), giving up an average of 449.5 yards per game. Although that most likely won’t come to be an issue against Wyoming’s attack. The Cowboys have faced five squads (Texas, Colorado, Utah, BYU and TCU) in the same fashion and allowed an average of 457.6 YPG.
Fresno State went 2-2 SU and ATS when facing those teams in the Top 25 and BCS conferences. Wyoming, on the other hand, was 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS in those spots.
Most of the betting shops have taken notice of the perceived mismatch by making the Bulldogs 11-point favorites with a total of 55. You can take the Cowboys to pull off the upset for a plus-350 return (risk $100 to win $350). While that line shouldn’t surprise anyone, it does have the capability of moving.
“There's been a lot of movement to that line already,” says betED’s sportsbook manager, Randy Scott. “It opened at 11, then dropped to 10 ½ and was quickly bet to 11 ½ and up to 12. It since has been bouncing on and off 11 ½ and 12. I don't think the line will go beyond the 12. If anything, I suspect the line will settle back to the opening number 11 by game day.”
Scott concludes, “Also, we should see a drop in the total. Currently it's sitting at 55 and there are already signs of it dropping elsewhere. It could drop as low as 53.5 or 53 by game time.” BetED has Fresno State as a 10½-point “chalk” with a total of 55 at press time.
Cokin has also mentioned that this game might be a battle of emotions. “Fresno State can easily look at this being just a regular season matchup after finishing its season on Dec. 5 at Illinois. The Bulldogs could believe that this is a let down of a game after playing so well at the end of the year. Meanwhile, the Cowboys haven’t been to a bowl tilt since 2004 and will be really up for this contest.”
While most of the public is hitting up the Bulldogs, they should be weary with the fact that they have gone 0-8 SU and ATS in their last eight bowl games.
Wyoming hasn’t been a great team over the past few years, but they have given gamblers a reason to believe by going 5-7 SU and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games posted as an underdog.
Fresno State has had its issues when playing against teams from the Mountain West, as evidenced by a 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS mark since 1999. The Cowboys, however, are 21-13 SU and 19-15 ATS when facing off against the WAC going back to 1996.
vegasinsider.com
St. Petersburg Bowl
By Judd Hall
Gamblers that didn’t get their fill on the first game of the bowl season will not have to wait long for another chance to cash in. They’ll get another shot at wagering when Rutgers (8-4 straight up, 5-5 against the spread) takes on the Knights in the second St. Petersburg Bowl from Tropicana Field.
The Scarlet Knights come into their fifth straight bowl game after a season that many weren’t sure what to expect.
Rutgers was going into the 2009 campaign with nine starters returning on the attack, but were going to be green on the skill positions. Gone from the program are quarterback Mike Teel, along with wide receivers Tiquan Underwood and Kenny Britt. Replacing that trio this season has been Tom Savage under center and Tim Brown and Mohamed Sanu handling the receiving duties.
Given the turner over in those skill positions, we’ve seen a noticeable dip on the aerial strike. In 2008, Rutgers had the 18th ranked passing game in the nation with 270.4 yards per game through the air. We’ve seen Greg Schiano’s program toss the ball for just 183.4 YPG in 2009 to come in 95th nationally.
You’d like to believe that Savage got his act together as the season progressed and fought a good fight. However, much like what Red said in “The Shawshank Redemption,” prison is no fairy-tale world…or more specific, college football is no fairy-tale world. Savage has completed 43 percent of his passes for 127.3 YPG, 15 sacks with two touchdowns to four interceptions in his last three starts. And numbers like that won’t help keep a shady character like Bogs away.
Luckily for the offense, the stopping unit has been there to pick up the slack. Rutgers has been stifling on defense in 2009 as evidenced by the fact that they have given up just 312.7 YPG, which ranks 19 amongst all Football Bowl Subdivision schools.
The Scarlet Knights will need their defense to hold tight when they face off against Central Florida (8-4 SU, 9-2 ATS) on Saturday night.
George O’Leary’s Knights looked like they were heading towards mediocrity (and maybe a new head coach) when the opened the season with a 3-3 mark. But UCF found its footing on offense to close the season on a 5-1 run and its third bowl game in school history.
Central Florida has been able to make that run thanks to an offense that has been averaging 348.0 yards per game in 2009. To let you know how impressive that is, consider that the Knights were the worst offense in the FBS with average of 229.5 YPG.
So how did the Knights get so much better? The easiest answer is Brett Hodges.
Hodges, a transfer from Wake Forest, has been just what UCF needed under center. The senior signal caller has completed 61 percent of his passes for 2,265 yards with 15 scores to 11 picks. Hodges’ last three starts have been fantastic as he’s connected on 70 percent of his passes for 235.0 YPG and five touchdowns.
UCF also has a sturdy defense to keep the opposition at bay. The Knights are 46th nationally in total defense, giving up 348.1 YPG this season. But they are fourth in the country against the run by surrendering a paltry 82.5 YPG on the ground. That stat will be big since Rutgers is more of a run-first team now as they’re picking up 183.4 YPG.
Given how both sides are fairly evenly, it comes as no surprise that the line has been close. Most sportsbooks have posted the Scarlet Knights as 2½-point favorites and a total of 44½. Gamblers can back Central Florida to win outright at plus-125 (risk $100 to win $125).
There is plenty of reason for the public to be siding with Rutgers since they’re on a 3-0 SU and ATS run in bowl games. Adding fuel to that fire is the fact that the Knights have posted an 0-2 SU and ATS mark in their two postseason matchups.
Something else to consider about Central Florida is the fact that they are 0-13 SU and 2-11 ATS when taking on teams from the Big East. Meanwhile, the Scarlet Knights are just 3-3 SU, but 4-2 ATS against clubs from Conference USA.
Another thing to consider for this matchup is that it almost like a regular season game with Rutgers finishing its schedule on Dec. 5 and the Knights on Nov. 28. The Scarlet Knights are 3-1 SU and ATS when playing after two weeks off. UCF is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in games played with three weeks of rest since 1996.
vegasinsider.com
NCAAB News and Notes
Saturday, December 19
New Mexico Bowl
Underdog is 11-1 vs spread in Fresno State's last 12 bowl games, with Bulldogs 0-5 vs spread in last five bowls when they were favored; FSU made three trips to midwest this season- not sure trip to Albuquerque is that big a deal for them. WAC teams are 2-7 SU in bowls last two years. Average total in Fresno's non-league games this year: 72.7. Wyoming is playing in second bowl since 1993; they're just 5-6 vs I-A teams in '09, with all six losses by 10+ points. Cowboys are 3-3 on road, winning last two away games by total of four points. Wyoming is 0-5 vs bowl teams this season (3-2 vs spread). MWC teams won 10 of last 14 bowls SU.
St Petersburg Bowl
Central Florida is only 90 minutes from St Pete, but Rutgers recruits a lot in Florida (Schiano was Miami aide) so both sides should have some support here. Rutgers is 3-1 in bowls under Schiano, scoring 42 ppg, the average total in their bowls is 66.5. Big East teams are 12-4 SU in bowls the last three years, and Central Florida is 0-15 vs Big East teams- they lost 27-7/35-3 to the two BCS teams they played this year (Miami and Texas). UCF won five of last six games, scoring 40 ppg in winning last three games- they're 9-2 vs spread this season, 4-1 as the dog. Rutgers is 7-0 this season allowing less than 24 points; they're 4-4 as a favorite.
Betting the Bowls Begins!
By Doug Upstone
Do we really need 34 bowl games, not really. But do we need a bunch of worthless apps on our cell phones or what about all the waste on Direct TV, how many of those channels go unused? The bowl season is blast because you can watch whatever you want, whenever you want. And for the sports bettor its Christmas every day, with games packed into watchable segments. These 20 days of college football reminds me of the Travel Channel's Man vs. Food and if you stomach all 34 games, man wins!
New Mexico Bowl
Wyoming vs. Fresno State
The best aspect of playing the very first game of the college football bowl season is you don't have a long layoff from the end of your last game and you can be home for the holidays. The first contest also ends up being the center of attention for the crazy people that watch every bowl game (guilty as charged) and those that feel compelled to not be very selective and wager on all 34 games because of how they are spread out.
By extremely subjective means, this bowl rates the 27th best to watch. It starts with Fresno State (8-4, 7-4-1 ATS) who has strong characteristics to take in this bowl game. They have a star player in junior running back Ryan Mathews, who led the nation in rushing at 151.3.
The Bulldogs ranked 19th in total offense at 435.9 yards per game and 15th in scoring at 34.3 points per game. Though some might question Fresno State's resolve with repeat appearance in Albuquerque, coach Pat Hill will have none of that talk. "This game and this experience will be good for the development of our team and program as we build toward the future," Hill told the Fresno Bee.
Since Hill has been at FSU, he's always been an "us against them" coach and losing last year to another Mountain West team (40-35 to Colorado State) just adds incentive. The Bulldogs are notorious bad bets and after nipping Illinois at the wire 53-52 in Champaign, they are 2-11 ATS after allowing 50 points or more in last game. On the season they are 1-4 SU against fellow bowlers with three covers.
Wyoming (6-6, 8-3 ATS) isn't a very good team, however they dressed up rather nicely for bettors with superior spread record. First year coach Dave Christensen made a lot of changes, but the most important was the turnover margin. Last season's 4-8 team was -22, this year a complete alternation to +7. On the year Wyoming is 5-0 and 4-0 ATS when they scored 29 or more points and were 0-5 and 2-3 ATS when they totaled 10 or few points. (Shutout three times)
The Cowboys are 2-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons and will have to match points to stay in the game with Fresno State who allows 27.2 PPG. Wyoming is 1-5 and 4-2 ATS against bowl teams this season.
These teams used to meet annually when they played in the WAC together until 1997. Fresno State is 10-8 SU and 6-6 ATS in bowls and is 0-5 ATS as a favorite. Wyoming is 5-6 and 3-3 ATS in bowl assignments and has not been favored in last six. The underdog has won and covered two of three New Mexico Bowls.
Fresno State is a 10.5-point favorite with total of 55.
St. Petersburg Bowl
Central Florida vs. Rutgers
Later on the first night of bowling, this bowl matchup comes in at 28th which might sound a little low; given both teams have pretty solid records. What this matchup lacks is sex appeal, kind of like looking for Elin Nordegren and winding up with Mindy Lawton. (Cheap Tiger shot, but fitting) Both Central Florida and Rutgers were 8-4 on the season and each is known for above average defenses and inconsistent offenses.
UCF (9-2 ATS) has to make the relatively short journey down I-4 from Orlando and coach George O'Leary relishes the opportunity. "We are thrilled to have this opportunity to play so close to our fans in St. Petersburg," O'Leary said. "It will be great to have a large fan base behind us as we go for our ninth victory against a quality team from the Big East Conference. It is a great opportunity and one that I know our players wanted."
The Knights strength is defense. Central Florida is fifth nationally in sacks, averaging 3.1 per game and registered 7.6 tackles for loss (11th overall). Of the 120 teams in the FBS, they were fourth in stopping the run at 82.5 yards per game against teams that averaged 146 YPG. UCF is 6-0 ATS after one or more consecutive SU wins and since last year.
Rutgers (5-7 ATS) probably ended up where they belonged, yet the season had a tinge of disappointment. The offense and defense dismantled weaker competition save Syracuse, but the Scarlet Knights were 0-3 SU and ATS against the best three teams from the Big East, being outscored 95-53. The offensive line was supposed to be the strong suit of Rutgers, however they have been irresolute, which comprised quarterback Tom Savage's freshman campaign. With Central Florida's ability to make plays up the field, the O-Line will have to step. The Scarlet Knights lost their last game to West Virginia and is 26-12 ATS off a loss against a conference rival.
The Knights from Florida are 2-4 and 4-2 ATS against bowl squads in 2009. The Knights from New Jersey are 2-3 SU and ATS vs. teams playing in the postseason. This is Central Florida's third bowl contest and they have yet to post a victory (1-1 ATS). This is Rutgers fifth consecutive bowl and they are 3-2 SU and ATS all-time.
Rutgers is favored by 2.5 with total of 44.
New Orleans tries to deliver holiday treat
The Saints look to stay perfect when they host the Cowboys in a special Saturday night NFL Network contest. New Orleans has just Dallas, Tampa, and Carolina standing in the way of a 16-0 season, and although being the NFC representative for the Super Bowl is foremost on the coaches and players minds, Sean Payton and his team at least outwardly is embracing the idea of seeking perfection.
New Orleans (13-0, 8-5 ATS) will look to do what they do best, score points. The Saints score NFL-best 35.8 points per game and they have done so against teams allowing 23 PPG. They are still within striking distance of setting the all-time record for points at 36.8, set by the New England Patriots in 2007. New Orleans is 24-4 ATS when they have scored 30 or more points under coach Payton.
The Saints are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS at home, scoring 36.7 PPG. After years of being one of the most melancholy home franchises in the NFL, New Orleans is 11-2 and 10-3 ATS at the Superdome the last two years.
For this contest and the remaining other two, coach Payton would probably like to get more balanced offensively, as they have thrown 90 times compared to 50 rush attempts in last two outings.
Drew Brees is the NFL's top-rated passer, and he leads the league with 32 touchdown passes. Brees can go to four different receivers, all with big play ability and can hand the ball off to three distinct running backs that each have a style and unique way to be productive. Off last week's win at Atlanta, the Saints are 10-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last two seasons.
The sports bettor has to make a decision in the contest, spunk or funk? The Saints have come from behind several times in the second half to win games and Dallas is a December punching bag. After losing to San Diego at home, any talk of Dallas players saying December is just another month is like saying the Cowboys are unbeaten in June.
Dallas last month woes have gotten to them mentally. Though they still have two division games left on the docket, in a lot of ways, this is the swing game. Win at New Orleans and the Cowboys feel like Tiger Woods finding out Elin wants him back without a new pre-nup. Another loss sinks Dallas further into the December abyss and suddenly they have gone from looking like division champions to the Denver Broncos of last season. The Boys are 10-22 ATS in road games off a non-conference clash and as widely reported, 1-9 ATS in December games over the last three seasons.
It would seem logical for the Cowboys to lean on their ground attack, even after it combined for just 153 yards over the last two weeks, because the Saints have struggled against the run and rank near the bottom of the NFL in rushing touchdowns allowed (15). Doing so, however, still doesn't guarantee that Drew Brees won't find a way to drop at least four touchdowns on the board, because he can move the offense upfield faster than any quarterback in the league. Throw in Tony Romo's history of poor play in December he has a 16-to-19 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 15 final month games and Jerry Jones club at 10-22 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards a game looks about right.
Sportbet.com has the Saints as 7.5-point favorites with total of 53.5. The New Orleans defense has been picked on and despite incredible offensive numbers; they are just 2-5 ATS in last seven games. The Saints are 8-1 OVER against conference opponents over the last two seasons. Dallas is going to have to generate a pass rush without DeMarcus Ware and they are 9-1 ATS after being burned for 250 or more yards thru the air. The Cowboys are 9-4 OVER as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points.
Keys to follow are the beginning of the game. Most of the Saints covers have been with fast starts and with raucous crowd, the Cowboys "want to" will be tested early. Wade Phillips will need big game from his offensive and defensive lines to control the game and Romo can't revert to old ways of chucking the pigskin up for grabs against opportunistic defense.
With Dallas expected to blitz, the Saints immensely effective screen game applies. One aspect in the Cowboys recent losses, Miles Austin has been a non-factor, giving them no long threat.
At the end of this contest, the question will be - Who dat?
Dallas (8-5, 6-7 ATS) at New Orleans (13-0, 8-5 ATS)
The undefeated Saints return to the Superdome to continue their march toward perfection against the suddenly struggling Cowboys, who desperately need to break their December hex to keep pace in the playoff chase.
New Orleans pulled out a narrow road victory for the second straight week last Sunday, edging Atlanta 26-23 after blowing a 14-point second-half lead. The Saints failed to cover as a hefty 10-point favorite, following their 33-30 overtime win at Washington as a nine-point chalk. New Orleans continues to boast the No. 1 offense in both yardage (426.1 yards per game) and scoring (35.8 yards per game), with the latter figure being nearly six points higher than the second-place Vikings (29.9 ppg).
The Saints’ defense is just 21st in yielding 347.6 ypg, but even with that, they’re outscoring opponents by more than two TDs per contest, as the defense surrenders 21.1 ppg. Additionally, New Orleans has the No. 2 turnover margin at plus-16.
Dallas is going on its seemingly annual late-season swoon, having dropped both its games this month to fall to 4-10 SU (2-12 ATS) in its last 14 December outings. On Sunday, the Pokes lost to San Diego 20-17 as a 3½-point home chalk, falling to 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in its last five games. Previously, the Cowboys were on a 6-1 SU tear (4-3 ATS) and at the top of the NFC East heading into this month; now they are clinging to the sixth seed as a wild-card prospect.
Dallas still fields the league’s third-best offense at 391.1 ypg, but the squad is only netting 22.8 ppg (13th). The defense has helped make up for that, though, ranking sixth in the league in points allowed at just 17.9 ppg.
These teams last met in December 2006, when New Orleans went to Dallas and administered a 42-17 road beatdown as a 7½-point underdog to move to 5-0 SU and ATS in the last five clashes in this rivalry, dating to the 1998 season. Furthermore, the Saints won from the underdog role in all five of those games, with the first three at the Superdome and the last two at Dallas.
The Saints are just 2-5 ATS since cashing in their first six games of the year and they’re on further ATS hiccups of 1-3-1 in December and 1-5 against NFC opponents. However, they still carry a plethora of positive pointspread runs, including 8-3 at home, 13-5 as a favorite, 7-2 as a home chalk, 10-2 giving 3½ to 10 points, 4-1 against winning teams and 7-3 after an ATS loss.
The Cowboys shoulder nothing but negative pointspread streaks, including 1-4 overall, 1-5 as an underdog, 1-4 on the road, 2-6 against winning teams and a pathetic 5-15-2 in December, including 0-6 ATS in their last six December road outings dating to 2007. Plus, Dallas has cashed in just three of its last 12 non-division road games.
New Orleans is on “over” rolls of 10-2 in December, 14-4-1 at the dome, 12-4-1 as a home chalk, 19-6-1 against the NFC, 18-8 following a SU win and a lengthy 47-22-2 against winning teams. On the flip side, Dallas is on “under” stretches of 5-1 overall, 6-2 after a SU loss and 14-6 when coming off a pointspread setback. Finally, the under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings between these squads going all the way back to 1994.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
NEW MEXICO BOWL
(at Albuquerque, N.M.)
Wyoming (6-6, 8-3 ATS) vs. Fresno State (8-4, 7-4 ATS)
Two teams going in opposite directions kick off the bowl season at University Stadium as slumping Wyoming takes on the red-hot Bulldogs.
Wyoming lost four of six to end the season (4-2 ATS) but edged Colorado State 17-16 in Fort Collins, Colo., in the finale, cashing as a 2½-point underdog and earning itself a postseason bid for the first time in five years. The Cowboys were held to 10 points or less in each of their six losses, getting blanked three times. However, they were plus-7 in turnover margin, which helped them win five games by a touchdown or less and finish fifth in the Mountain West Conference under first-year coach Dave Christensen.
Fresno State wrapped up its regular season with a thrilling 53-52 win in Illinois when the Bulldogs scored with two seconds left and converted the two-point conversion when a tipped pass ended up in the hands of an offensive lineman, who bulled his way into the end zone for the win. Fresno enters this contest having won seven of its last eight games (5-3 ATS), scoring 30 points or more in each of the seven wins.
Wyoming last went bowling in 2004, when it upset UCLA 24-21 in the Las Vegas Bowl as a hefty 12½-point underdog.
This is Fresno State’s second straight New Mexico Bowl appearance and 10th postseason contest in the last 11 years. The Bulldogs, third-place finishers in the Western Athletic Conference, fell to Colorado State 40-35 in last year’s contest, losing outright as two-point favorites. Under 13-year head coach Pat Hill, Fresno State is 5-0 ATS as an underdog in bowl games, but 0-4 ATS as a favorite.
These teams met regularly in the 1990s when both were members of the WAC, with the home team taking each of the last six contests. The most meeting was in 1997 when Fresno State scored a 24-7 home win as a 6½-point chalk.
Wyoming’s offense is 112th in the nation (out of 120), managing just 298.7 total yards per game, and 111th in the country in scoring at just 16.9 points per contest. Defensively, the Cowboys are give up 395.1 total ypg, which ranks 82nd.
The Bulldogs rush for 231.6 ypg, the seventh-highest total in Division I-A, with RB Ryan Mathews doing the bulk of the damage, as he led the nation at 151.3 rushing ypg. Fresno scored 30 points or more in 10 of its 12 games, averaging 34.3 points per game, good for 14th nationally.
Wyoming is on positive ATS streaks of 7-2 overall, 14-6 in non-conference games, 4-1 agaisnt WAC schools, 27-13 after a spread-cover and 6-2 as an underdog, but it is just 3-13-1 ATS in its last 17 games against teams with a winning record. The Bulldogs are on ATS skids of 8-22 as a favorite, 1-6 against Mountain West teams and 9-26 on grass.
The Cowboys have stayed below the posted total in 13 of 19 non-conference games, but topped the total in five of seven against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, Fresno State is on “over” runs of 6-2 in bowl games and 5-2 in December.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FRESNO STATE
ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
(at St. Petersburg, Fla.)
Central Florida (8-4, 9-2 ATS) vs. Rutgers (8-4, 6-6 ATS)
Playing what is virtually a home game, Central Florida doesn’t have far to travel as it battles Rutgers at Tropicana Field.
Central Florida lost its first two Conference USA games, then won the final six league contests in a row (5-1 ATS) to finish second in the East Division and earn this bowl bid. The Knights went to UAB in the regular-season finale and scored a 34-27 win as a three-point road favorite.
Rutgers finished in a three-way tie for fourth in the Big East, with losses coming to Pitt, West Virginia and Cincinnati – the league’s top three teams – as well as Syracuse. Despite falling to West Virginia 24-21 as a two-point home chalk in their finale, the Scarlet Knights are on a 4-2 SU and ATS run, winning three of four on the highway.
Central Florida is back in the postseason after going 4-8 last year. The Knights have never won a bowl game, suffering narrow losses to Mississippi State (10-3 in the 2007 Liberty Bowl) and Nevada (49-48 in the 2005 Hawaii Bowl) in their first two tries. Meanwhile, Rutgers is in its fifth straight bowl, having won each of the last three, including last year’s 29-23 victory over North Carolina State in the PapaJohns.com Bowl, pushing as a six-point favorite.
This is the first-ever meeting between these schools. However, Central Florida has lost 15 straight games to Big East opponents.
UCF’s strength is on defense, which ranks fifth nationally in sacks (3.1 per game) and fourth against the run (82.5 rushing ypg allowed). Meanwhile, Rutgers RB Joe Martinek paced the offense with 923 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, with freshman QB Tom Savage throwing for 1,917 yards, 12 TDs and six INTs. Rutgers averaged 27.5 points a game this season, while allowing just 17.4.
UCF is just 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 against Big East teams and just 13-27-1 ATS in its last 31 non-conference games, but the team is on positive ATS streaks of 4-0 overall, 5-0 away from home, 6-1 as underdogs, 4-0 this season on artificial turf and 8-3 after a straight-up win. Rutgers is on modest ATS streaks of 3-0-1 in bowl games, 4-1-1 in December, 4-1 against Conference USA teams and 3-1-1 in non-conference action.
For Central Florida, the under is on streaks of 4-0 in non-conference games, 4-1 as an underdog and 6-2 after a straight-up win. The Scarlet Knights are on “under” runs of 8-3 overall, 6-0 in non-conference action, 5-1 after a SU loss and 5-2 as a favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Cowboys at Saints
By Kevin Rogers
The Saints continue their march towards an undefeated season on Saturday night, hosting the suddenly floundering Cowboys. New Orleans owns a 13-0 mark, the best start in franchise history, while trying to secure home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Dallas is just playing for its postseason lives, coming off consecutive losses to the Giants and Chargers.
New Orleans is chasing history, attempting to become the second team since the expansion to the 16-game schedule in 1978 to complete a perfect regular season. The Patriots accomplished that feat in 2007, but fell short of a 19-0 mark and Super Bowl victory with a 17-14 loss to the Giants. The Colts are currently one step ahead of the Saints, thanks to Indianapolis' win at Jacksonville on Thursday to move to 14-0.
The Saints own the top offense in the league, averaging 35.9 ppg, while racking up 426.1 yards a contest. The lowest point total New Orleans has accumulated this season was in a 24-7 victory over the Jets, where the Saints scored two defensive touchdowns. New Orleans began the season cashing tickets left and right, covering six straight games. However, that number has steadily declined, as the Saints are 2-5 ATS the last seven contests.
In this stretch, New Orleans has been favored by nine points or more six times, but the Saints are 6-0 ATS this season when laying eight points or less. The Saints have been involved in eight games with a total of 50 or higher, but have finished 'under' the total five times.
Dallas' December woes are not overblown by the media; in fact, they are very accurate. The Cowboys are 5-10 SU and 2-12-1 ATS since 2006 in December. That timeline parallels Tony Romo's stay in Dallas, which includes a 1-5 SU/ATS mark the last two seasons.
The Cowboys began the season 2-2, but pulled off four consecutive wins to take control of the NFC East at 6-2 in mid-November. Dallas stubbed its toe at Green Bay in Week 10, falling to the Packers, 17-7. The Cowboys went through a two-week stretch scoring a total of 14 points, as Dallas edged Washington, 7-6 in Week 11. Following a convincing Thanksgiving victory over Oakland, the Cowboys dropped two straight, now sitting one game behind the Eagles in the NFC East.
Wade Phillips' team hasn't been terrible away from home, compiling a 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS mark. Two of the victories came at Tampa Bay and Kansas City, who own a combined four wins on the season. Dallas' most impressive victory away from the Lone Star State came in Week 9 at Philadelphia, beating the Eagles, 20-16, in the Cowboys' sole game as an underdog this season.
This series has been owned by the Saints in recent years, with New Orleans claiming each of the last five regular season meetings since 1998. The last matchup came at Texas Stadium in 2006, when the Saints demolished the Cowboys, 42-17, as 7 ½-point road 'dogs. Drew Brees tossed five touchdown passes, while Reggie Bush racked up over 100 yards receiving and a touchdown. The last time the Cowboys traveled to the Superdome was back in 2003, as New Orleans held off Dallas, 13-7. To show you how long ago that game was, the starting quarterbacks in that contest were Aaron Brooks and Quincy Carter.
VI capper Joe Nelson says the Cowboys may not be finished with a loss, "Dallas closes with division games the final two weeks and although this team is heading in the wrong direction, a loss here would not necessarily eliminate playoff hopes, as the Giants have not exactly inspired confidence in their ability to grab the final wild card spot."
With New Orleans' struggles ATS recently, Nelson believes the line is spot on, "The Saints have failed to cover in five of the last seven games which will help keep this line in check. The Saints have been dominant at home this year and facing a team like the Cowboys will get the team's attention after a couple of marginal performances that still resulted in wins against Washington and Atlanta the last two weeks. Both of those games came on the road and at home the Saints have won every game by at least an eight-point margin."
Nelson feels the Cowboys' late-season woes aren't ready to change anytime soon, "Dallas has failed to cover in four of the last five games and although the December curse for Dallas is overblown, this will be a tough scheduling spot after failing in a critical game last week. The only impressive road win for Dallas all season came at Philadelphia and that was a tight game that could have gone either way. Statistically, Dallas looks like a much better team than its record indicates, but the reality is the Cowboys have found ways to lose and the pressure will be immense on the team as the media coverage of another collapse grows. In its two biggest home games of the season, against the Giants and against the Patriots, the Saints delivered dominant blowouts and a similar result may be in order again this week."
Randy Scott, the sportsbook manager at BetED.com says the public jumped on the undefeated Saints early, "The line opened at -7 and was quickly bet up to -7½ early in the week. But since then, the line has dropped back to -7. The majority of the early action is on the Saints at approximately 65%. But we've been seeing steady action on Dallas as of late."
As far as the total is concerned, Scott believes the number will continue to take a nice leap, "The total is steadily being bet up in this one. We opened at 52½ and it's now at 54."
The Saints are currently listed as seven-point home favorites, with the total set at 53 ½ at most spots.
vegasinsider.com
Saturday Bowling
By Sportsbook.com
NCAAF: New Mexico Bowl
Wyoming and Fresno State kick off the 34-game bowl parade from New Mexico.
The Bulldogs have moved into the position of heavy favorites, laying 12.5-points, with a total set at 55, according to the Sportsbook.com LIVE ODDS page. Most of the betting attention seems to be focused on the total as nine of every 10 bettors expect this game to be a shootout.
The Cowboys finished 6-6 in 2009, but proved even more competitive than that, covering seven of their L9 games against the spread. They are playing in a bowl game for the first time in five years.
Fresno State was 8-4 in the regular season and comes in having won seven of its L8 games. The Bulldogs have become regular bowl participants, but have struggled horribly in the favorite role, losing their L4 both outright and ATS, including three times vs. Mountain West foes. In fact, underdogs have covered the last eight Fresno State bowl games. These teams used to meet regularly as conference foes, but haven’t gone head-to-head since 1997.
It’s really hard to make a case that Wyoming deserved a bowl bid. Five of their six wins were by a touchdown or fewer and its only win over a plus-.500 opponent was a 29-22 squeaker over Division I-AA Weber State. In their five games against bowl opponents, the Cowboys were outscored by over 25 points per game.
Pat Hill and Fresno State once again took on all comers this season, losing two games against BCS teams (Cincinnati and Boise State) and another in overtime to Big Ten bowler Wisconsin.
For those looking to bet the total, Fresno State nets 34.3 PPG and 6.4 yards per play, so it’ll certainly put up the points. If Wyoming can muster anything against a Bulldog defense that surrendered 50-plus points three times this season, this one should go over the 55.
Top StatFox ATS Trend
WYOMING is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The average score was WYOMING 11.3, OPPONENT 35.6 - (Rating = 1*)
Top StatFox Total Super Situation
Play Under - Any team against the total (FRESNO ST) - in a bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences. (34-8 over the last 10 seasons) (81%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)
NEW MEXICO BOWL Series Trend: In this battle of Mountain West and WAC teams, the Mountain West team has won two straight games both SU & ATS. The UNDER and underdog are also 2-1. Wyoming would figure to have the edge based upon the aforementioned figures. However, the spreads for the three games have been -1.5, -2, and -2.5, so in each case the games were expected to be competitive. This one is double-digits.
NCAAF: St. Petersburg Bowl
The second annual St. Petersburg Bowl is a battle of Knights, UCF’s Knights vs. the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.
Rutgers, out of the Big East, is a 2.5-point favorite for this second of 34-bowl games, according to Sportsbook.com. UCF comes out of Conference USA, and most bettors, 86% of them, think the conference strength difference will be what decides this game.
The Golden Knights of UCF were one of the country’s most effective teams against the pointspread this season, going 9-2. They’ll come into this game having rather quietly won five of their L6 games outright as well. Still, they are a slight underdog to a Rutgers team that finished 8-4 in 2009 out of the Big East.
The bowl histories of these teams are very different, as UCF is seeking its first ever bowl-game win, and is playing in just its third postseason contest. The Scarlet Knights have won three straight bowl games, all as favorites. They boast a 24-12 ATS record in non-conference games under head coach Greg Schiano.
These two teams will be facing off in sunny Florida, yet playing indoors gives no real home-field advantage to UCF. In my opinion the teams come in with pretty much the same seasons behind them as far as stats go.
The deciding factor in this game will be conference strength and a price that doesn’t reflect it. Rutgers has forced a ton of turnovers this year so look for the Scarlet Knight to do so once again here.
The StatFox Power Rating line indicates Rutgers should be a seven-point favorite. Take advantage of that and watch the chalk jump to an early lead and win by nine or more.
Top StatFox ATS Trend
George O'Leary is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers/game on the season in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was O'Leary 25.5, OPPONENT 32.1 - (Rating = 2*)
Top StatFox Total Super Situation
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (UCF) - in a game involving two average passing teams (6.4-7.5 PYA), in non-conference games. (40-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.9%, +26.8 units. Rating = 3*)
ST PETERSBURG BOWL Series Trend: Last year’s St. Petersburg Bowl game was the first college bowl game hosted at “The Trop”, better known as the home of baseball’s Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa-based South Florida was an unofficial “host” for that game, and didn’t show Memphis much hospitality, routing the Tigers 41-14 as a 10.5-point favorite. UCF would have a “regional” advantage, but Rutgers is still the favorite.
Tips and Trends
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints
Cowboys: The December struggles continue for the Cowboys, as they've lost both games this month SU and ATS. In fact, the Cowboys have lost 4 of their last 5 games ATS. Dallas can still win their division, but they must win their remaining 3 games. Today is only the 2nd game this season the Cowboys are an underdog. They were 3 point underdogs against the Eagles earlier this season and won SU 20-16. Dallas is 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road this season. This Cowboys offense has been less that dynamic lately, as they've been held to 20 PTS or fewer in 4 of their last 6 games. QB Tony Romo has thrown for more than 3,550 YDS with 23 TDs on the season. WR Miles Austin continues to be the offensive game breaker for Dallas, as he has 999 receiving YDS along with 10 TDs this year. Dallas is 3rd in YPG with 391, but only have 22.8 PPG to show for it. The Cowboys defense needs to play better, as they've given up 51 PTS combined the past 2 weeks.
Cowboys 1-5 ATS last 6 games as an underdog.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games overall.
Key Injuries - LB Demarcus Ware (neck) is questionable.
TE Martellus Bennett (concussion) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 27
Saints (-7.5, O/U 53.5): New Orleans is still a perfect 13-0 on the season. The dream season marches on as they play their 2nd to last regular season game at home today. The Saints are 4-2 ATS at home this season, including a perfect 3-0 ATS when favored by single digits. New Orleans has been playing very close games of late, as they might be feeling some pressure to finish undefeated. New Orleans has lost 5 of their past 7 games ATS. QB Drew Brees leads an offense that is easily the best in the NFL. The Saints are the only team averaging more than 30 PTS on the season, currently with 35.8 PPG. They also lead the NFL in YPG, with 426. Defensively, the Saints have held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 23 PTS or fewer. The Saints are 2nd in the NFL in interceptions with 24, including a league high 8 defensive TDs.
Saints are 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
Over is 12-4-1 last 17 games as a home favorite.
Key Injuries - TE Jeremy Shockey (toe) is questionable.
LB Scott Fujita (knee) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 34 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Wyoming at Fresno State
Wyoming: Wyoming is ecstatic to be bowling this year, as they made it by the skin of their teeth. They beat their rival, Colorado St, by a single point to finish 6-6 SU on the season, ensuring their bowl eligibility. Despite only being 6-6 SU, the Cowboys are 8-3 ATS this season. Wyoming is 5-1 ATS away from home this season, winning 5 straight after losing their first ATS road game of the season to Colorado. QB Austyn Carta-Samuels has done an admirable job since taking over the QB job mid season. Carta-Samuels has thrown for over 1,750 YDS on nearly 60% completion rate. This Wyoming offense avoids turnovers, as they finished plus 7 in turnover margin. Defensively, Wyoming allows 27.3 PPG, and they particularly struggle stopping the run. The Cowboys allow 170 rushing YPG, so they will need to step up today when facing Ryan Matthews.
Wyoming is 6-2 ATS last 8 games as an underdog.
Under is 13-6 last 19 non-conference games.
Keey Injuries - S Jamichael Hall (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side of the Day)
Fresno St (-10.5, O/U 55): Fresno St. is bowling yet again, as they've now played in a bowl in 10 of the last 11 years. It's been a tale of two seasons for the Bulldogs, as they started the year 1-3 SU, only to end the season on a 7-1 SU streak. It all adds up to an 8-4 record SU, including an ATS record of 7-4 on the season. Fresno St. has gone 4-2 ATS as a favorite this season. The Bulldogs feature an offense that is 14th in the country with 34.3 PPG. RB Ryan Matthews plays a major role in this offense, as he's only the 2nd Bulldogs player in school history to rush for 3,000 YDS. Matthews averaged 151 rushing YPG this season, which led all FBS teams this year. As good as this rushing offense is, the Bulldogs defense has held this team back. Fresno St. has allowed 27.8 PPG, and were 111th in the country at stopping the run.
Fresno St 1-6 ATS last 7 vs. Mountain West Conference.
Over is 6-2 last 8 Bowl games.
Key Injuries - RB Ryan Matthews (leg) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 27