Rest equals Reward
By Chris David
Does extra time off matter help? A couple weeks back, we glanced at teams playing on Thursdays this season and wanted to see how they played the following week and the rest has definitely helped clubs so far. Let’s take a closer look at the log and see what’s transpired for out purposes – both straight up and against the spread.
Thursday - Nov. 11: Baltimore 20 at Atlanta 26
Following Week
Ravens 37 Panthers 13
Falcons 34 Rams 17
Comments: Baltimore and Atlanta were both listed as road favorites and they each posted double-digit victories. The results were 2-0 both SU and ATS for the rested clubs.
Thursday – Nov. 18: Chicago 16 at Miami 0
Following Week
Bears 31 Eagles 26
Dolphins 33 Raiders 17
Comments: Chicago and Miami were both catching points (+3) despite having extra time to prepare and the pair each captured outright victories again. The results were again 2-0 both SU and ATS.
Thursday – Nov. 25: New England 45 Detroit 24, New Orleans 30 Dallas 2, N.Y. Jets 26 Cincinnati 10
Following Week
New England 45 N.Y. Jets 3
New Orleans 34 Cincinnati 30
Dallas 38 Indianapolis 35
Chicago 24 Detroit 20
Comments: Ironically, two of the matchups (Jets-Patriots, Saints-Bengals) involved teams playing on the holiday so it was going to be a wash either way. In case you forgot, New Orleans beat Cincinnati on the road but failed to cover as a 6 ½-point favorite. And, New England hammered New York as a four-point favorite on MNF. The other two teams, Dallas and Detroit, playing on rest both kept the ATS streak going. The Cowboys knocked off the Colts as six-point pups and even though the Lions lost to Chicago, they managed to cover as five-point home ‘dogs. We’ll toss out the two early games, but tally the results at 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS.
Thursday – Dec. 2: Houston 24 at Philadelphia 34
Following Week
Philadelphia 30 Dallas 27
Baltimore 34 Houston 28
Comments: Finally, the ATS streak had to come to an end. The Eagles rallied for the win on SNF against the Cowboys but they couldn’t cover as four-point road favorites. And, Houston teased bettors by forcing overtime against Baltimore only to give up the pick-six touchdown to the Ravens. Most books closed the line at Houston as a three-point home underdog so the push was tossed out the window. The results were 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS.
Thursday – Dec. 9: Indianapolis 30 Tennessee 28
Following Week
Indianapolis 34 Jacksonville 24
Tennessee 31 Houston 17
Comments: Gamblers celebrating Christmas got an early present last week if they wagered on Indianapolis. The Colts returned an onside kick with under two minutes remaining to go ahead by 10 points and cover as five-point favorites. While that front-door winner wasn’t as deserving as others, the Titans wire-to-wire win over Houston was impressive. The results went 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS.
Thursday – Dec. 16: San Diego 34 San Francisco 7
Following Week
San Francisco at St. Louis – Result Pending
San Diego at Cincinnati – Result Pending
Thursday – Dec. 23: Carolina at Pittsburgh (TBD)
Following Week
Carolina at Atlanta – Result Pending
Pittsburgh at Cleveland – Result Pending
Like all trends, you have to take them for what their worth but incorporating them into your handicapping formulas isn’t a bad idea. Streaks and skids happen, and right now the rest has been rewarding.
On the season, the rested teams late in the season have compiled an 8-2 record both SU and ATS, with the straight up losses coming by six and four points.
This week, the teams in play are San Diego and San Francisco. The Chargers are laying 7 ½ points to the Bengals on the road, while the 49ers are catching 2 ½ points at St. Louis. The two clubs are still both alive in their conference playoff races, which could make you lean toward the pair even more.
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