Return of the MAC
By Judd Hall
There were 22 coaching changes made in the Football Bowl Subdivision, five of those coming in the Mid-American Conference.
We shouldn’t be surprised by that turnover when you consider that nine of the league’s 13 squads posted a losing record in 2009.
The conference has had its fair share of upsets over the past few seasons. Toledo went into the “Big House” to beat the Wolverines 13-10 last season. The Falcons certainly raised a few eyebrows in beating Pittsburgh on the road in their 2008 opener, 27-17.
And we can’t forget about Ball State putting a scare into the big boys over the past few seasons either. The Cardinals missed a late 55-yard field goal in 2007 to fall at Nebraska 41-40. And they fell 34-26 to then No. 2 Michigan at “The Big House” three seasons ago.
While those are impressive performances from the northern version of the Sun Belt, they aren’t indicative of the MAC as a whole. The league is a collective 10-60 straight up against BCS conference schools, covering the spread in 31 of those meetings.
Does this series of upsets and near misses give an accurate description as to every team in the MAC? Not really…at least not as far as gamblers are concerned. Nor should it bother bettors that you normally see these clubs play on regional sports networks or on those Tuesday and Thursday ESPN games.
We’ve polled the Editorial staff at VegasInsider.com for who they like to win the MAC, a sleeper team to watch out for and which schools you can fade.
Everyone in our staff agrees that Central Michigan is going to run away with the Mid-American title in 2009. And the Chippewas’ success all starts with the man under center.
“Casual fans might not be too familiar with senior quarterback Dan LeFevour, but he’s been helping CMU backers cash tickets since 2006. As a freshman, LeFevour led the Chippewas to the conference title and bettors to a lucrative 11-2-1 record ATS,” explains Brian Edwards.
Chris David believes that the Chips will get a lot of help from a triple threat on the attack. “LeFevour gets a ton of press, but the best player on the team is wide receiver Antonio Brown. The junior wideout can beat you by running, catching or returning the rock. He reminds me of Missouri standout Jeremy Maclin, who now plays for the Philadelphia Eagles.”
CMU’s offense is well known, but its defense will be a force to reckon with as well. “The Chippewas return 10 starters from last year’s defensive unit,” says Kevin Rogers. “They ranked third in the MAC against the run, giving up 138.6 yards per game. Central Michigan returns everyone in its secondary, which is bound to improve on being the worst pass defense in the league.”
While everyone believes that the Chips are going to win at all, we have dissension when it comes to picking a sleeper to make a little noise.
Edwards, for instance, isn’t sold on Ball State falling over like a canary in a coal mine…they are Cardinals, after all. “Most publications have dismissed Ball State after head coach Brady Hoke left for San Diego State and gunslinger Nate Lewis made the jump to the NFL. The Cards still have the league’s premier rusher in MiQuale Lewis, who rushed for 1,736 yards and 22 touchdowns in 2008. Their defense should also be solid for MAC standards.”
There is no doubt that Lewis has the skills to be a difference maker on the field. What is of doubt is whether or not Kelly Page is ready to run this offense as quarterback. Plus the backfield will have to contend with an offensive line that is returning just one starter, two of which are redshirt freshman.
Toledo has been down in the doldrums over the past three seasons, but David believes there is reason to think that new head coach Tim Beckham can turn it around. He explains, “The non-conference schedule looks tough on paper but this is an experienced squad that returns 16 players, including QB Aaron Opelt. Plus, this is a team that won at Michigan and lost a one-point decision (20-21) to Central Michigan last year. Add in the fact that the play in the MAC West, the weaker of the two divisions, and rebounding from a 3-9 campaign seems very possible.”
Kevin Rogers and I opted to go with the Milton Waddams approach…You know, backing the cellar dwellers. Rogers is taking Temple this year due to some pretty interesting numbers. “The Owls have been the perennial doormat in college football over the years, but are a surprising 14-9-1 ATS over the last two seasons.”
As for me, Ohio has the makings of a proper sleeper. The Bobcats’ offensive attack has two fully capable maestros with Boo Jackson and Theo Scott under center. Regardless of who starts at QB, they’ll have a strong wide receiving corps to target. And their o-line starts three seniors this season. They’ve been a lucrative betting option against non-conference fare, posting a 5-0-1 ATS mark over the last two seasons.
When it comes to programs to fade, our crew is leaning towards new head coaches and teams with a player getting a lot of publicity.
Kevin Rogers believes that the Falcons will have their wings clipped in ’09. “I know that Bowling Green has been a good ATS play over the last two seasons (15-9), but the adjustments of a new coach in Dave Clawson, new offense and defense will take its time and probably won’t pay off until next season.”
When it comes to teams showcasing a specific talent, Chris David found one to be wary of this season. “One trap that gamblers fall into is backing a team based on a superstar, in this case Western Michigan QB Tim Hiller. He’s coming off an ACL injury, plus he loses his top target as well, Jamarko Simmons (104 catches, 1,276 yards). Plus, the Broncos’ defense gave up 82 point over their last two games and only brings back three starters from 2008. If you want another reason or perhaps a person to place blame on WMU’s potential demise in 2009, then point to the Athletic Director. The Broncs play an unheard of seven road games this season. Plus, one of the five fixtures in Kalamazoo is versus Hofstra.
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