Sanchez faces tough trend
By Chris David
Before there was Mark Sanchez, there was Joe Flacco. Before Flacco, there was Ben Roethlisberger. And before Big Ben, there was Shaun King.
Those four quarterbacks all have one thing in common: they all won at least one playoff game as a rookie quarterback. Come Sunday evening, the quartet could have another thing in common but it depends on this year’s rookie, New York’s Sanchez.
The former Southern California standout was selected with the sixth overall pick by the Jets in the first round of last year’s NFL Draft and was named the starting quarterback by head coach Rex Ryan. The young gun slinger has had his shares of ups and downs this season, but New York still managed advanced to next week’s AFC Championship game against Indianapolis after stopping San Diego 17-14 on the road last Sunday.
Ryan’s “Ground and Pound” approach is spearheaded by the top-ranked running offense and the league’s best defense. Saying they’ve been fortunate not to lean on Sanchez is an understatement according to VegasInsider.com handicapper and analyst Brian Edwards.
He explained, “It’s hard to take anything away from New York at this point, because it’s won two playoff games on the road. Sanchez was limited against the Bengals but he made big plays, two in particular to tight end Dustin Keller. Against the Chargers, he was handcuffed again and only passed for 93 yards.”
“Everybody knows that a sound running game and a great defense can win you championships, but what happens when you can’t run the football or your defense has a bad day, perhaps your special teams make a mistake? Is Sanchez the guy that can lead your team back from a double-digit deficit? From what I’ve seen so far, I find it hard to believe.”
Sanchez will get his chance to prove the doubters wrong on the Championship stage and hopefully he can do much better than the trio of signal callers mentioned above.
Last year, Baltimore won back-to-back playoff games on the road against Miami (27-9) and Tennessee (13-10). Standing behind center for the Ravens in those games was Joe Flacco, who didn’t do much to help his team in the victories, yet he didn’t hurt them either. The pair or wins helped the Ravens advance to the AFC Championship game at Pittsburgh. The Steelers captured a 23-14 victory and a large reason why the Ravens lost was because of Flacco, who went 13-of-30 for 141 yards and was picked off three times, one being returned to the house too. Pittsburgh eventually went on to defeat Arizona 27-23 in Super Bowl XLIII with Ben Roethlisberger as its starting quarterback.
The championship ring for Big Ben was his second in his short six-year career. It seems like yesterday that the six-foot-five giant was a rookie in 2004. During that season, starter Tommy Maddox was injured and the rookie out of Miami, Ohio stepped in and led Pitt to 13 consecutive regular season victories. In the Divisional Round of the playoffs the Steelers luckily edged the N.Y. Jets (20-17), which set up the Black and Gold for a home AFC Championship game against New England. Unfortunately for the Steelers, their defense didn’t show up and Roethlisberger didn’t help the cause with three costly interceptions against the Patriots. Two weeks later, New England defeated Philadelphia 24-21 in Super Bowl XXXIX.
Another rookie who had a chance to shine in the conference championship was Tampa Bay’s Shaun King. In 1999, the Buccaneers squared off against the Rams in the NFC Championship from St. Louis. Like Flacco and Big Ben, King had a rough outing in the title game (13-of-29, 165 yards, 2 INTs) yet the Bucs only suffered an 11-6 decision to St. Louis because they had a scary-good defense. They picked off then-St. Louis quarterback Kurt Warner three times and held running back Marshall Faulk (53 total yards) in check. Tampa easily covered as 14 ½-point road underdogs and some folks will only remember this game for the “Bert Emanuel Rule.” We won’t waste space on the non-catch but did you really think King was going to win the game for Tampa Bay? Seven days after the Rams won this battle, they also held off the Tennessee Titans 23-16 to win Super Bowl XXXIV.
Can Sanchez end the streak Sunday and become the first rookie quarterback to play in a Super Bowl? Delving into the three previous situations further, you can make an argument that the Ravens, Steelers and Buccaneers were fortunate to reach the conference championship. They all caught lucky breaks and none of them won by more than three points in the Divisional Playoff round.
As Brian Edwards said above, you don’t want to discredit what the N.Y. Jets have done in the playoffs so far but could the Chargers have played any worse? Ten penalties, three missed field goals, two interceptions, and some poor coaching decisions will never help you win. Yet, San Diego still only lost by three points to the Jets.
If New York does lose, it might not fall on Sanchez’s shoulders but history has proven otherwise. And if Indianapolis keeps the trend rolling and puts another rookie in his place, then you might want to bet on Peyton Manning and the Colts two weeks later in Super Bowl XLIV.
vegasinsider.com
Here's a "tell' on what the bookies think of Sanchez. A common prop (I made them myself for years) is "What will X throw first, TD or INT?"
In today's games we have:
Manning TD -225 INT +185
Favre TD -240 INT +200
Brees TD -235 INT +185
and . . .
Sanchez TD +120 INT -150
It was uncommon when we made "QB to throw an INT" the Fav, but there is a big one today at -150.
And, while you can find "Will throw an INT Yes or No" for Brees, Manning and Favre (and Favre looks good to me on the yes at only -135) two big prop houses aren't offering it for Sanchez.