Lots of good games today. Lots of interesting lines.
Lets start with Miami +15.5 at Clemson. At first glance I said I liked Miami. King playing well, Miami D playing well. Then I heard that the public likes Miami. Seen a lot of people on TV like Miami. Getting Clemson under 17 points at home is a rarity and the more I look at it, seems like a good value. Clemson is fully aware of Miami and all the talk that Miami could upset them. Clemson has NFL talent at skill positions and everywhere else. I havent bet this yet. I want to see Timmys take on this game.
Texas AM vs Florida is another intriguing matchup. The line has dropped from 6.5 to 5.5, over is 59.5, up two points from open. Im liking the over here. Ive watched both teams two games and their defenses are weak. Florida offense is good and AM offense can score.
Alabama at Ole Miss. Love the over here. Also, Alabama team total over. Ole miss defense cant stop anyone and their offense can score. I look for a total in the 70s if not higher.
Oklahoma vs Texas. OVERRRRRRR. This might get to 100. Garbage defenses, good offenses. The garbage defenses are the key. If its under half the total at halftime, second half over will be the play of the day, for me anyway.
Navy vs Temple. Temple hasnt played yet is a 3.5 fav vs option attack Navy? I dont know.... seems like a Navy pick, but Navy got hammered by Air Force last week and looked really bad. This one is a watch and see.
Just my thoughts this saturday morning. Hope everyone had a winning day!
Noon ET: Virginia Tech vs North Carolina
This ACC showdown features a pair of undefeated teams with clashing styles. Virginia Tech (2-0, ranked 19th) is high scoring, averaging 41.5 points and giving up 27.5 in a pair of wins over NC State and Duke. Meanwhile, North Carolina (2-0, ranked 8th) isn't as flashy offensively but has a stellar defense, averaging 28.5 points but giving up just 14 points in a pair of wins over Syracuse and Boston College. This line opened with UNC listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. Despite receiving a slight majority of bets, the Tar Heels have fallen from -5.5 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the road dog Hokies, with sharps grabbing the points not laying them. Historically, short road dogs 4 or less have covered at roughly a 54% clip over the past decade. Sharp money has also hit the under, dropping the total from 60 to 57.5.
Noon ET: Oklahoma vs Texas
One of college football's greatest rivalries renews this afternoon in the Red River Showdown. Oklahoma (1-2) has been one of the most disappointing teams this season. The Sooners are riding a 2-game losing skid, falling to Kansas State 38-35 as a 27.5-point favorite and last week succumbing to Iowa State 37-20 as a 7.5-point favorite. On the flip side, Texas (2-1, ranked 22nd) has a winning record and is ranked, although the Longhorns lost to TCU last week 33-31 as 10.5-point favorites. This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 2-point favorite. The public can't believe the Sooners are favored. They see a ranked Texas team getting points and that's all they need to know: Longhorns all day. However, we've actually seen this line move further toward Oklahoma from -2 to -3. Sharps have pounded the Sooners as a buy-low contrarian unranked favorite against a ranked team. All the sharp moves were on Oklahoma at -2 or -2.5 before it reached the key number of 3.
Noon ET: Florida at Texas A&M
This SEC grudge match between ranked teams is one of the most heavily bet early games on Saturday. Florida (2-0, ranked 4th) has looked impressive through two games, outscoring Ole Miss and South Carolina by an average score of 44.5 to 29.5. Meanwhile, Texas A&M (1-1, ranked 21st) is coming off a 52-24 loss to Alabama last week, failing to cover as 18-point underdogs. This line opened with Florida listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public is absolutely hammering the Gators. However, despite receiving roughly three-out-of-four bets, we've seen the Gators fall from -6.5 to -5. This signals heavy pro money buying low on the Aggies as a live home dog.
More Notable Line Moves
NC State 9.5 to 7 at Virginia
Tennessee 14 to 12.5 at Georgia
Miami-Clemson Under 62 to 60.5
FIU -5 to -6 vs MTSU
UL Monroe-Liberty Over 61 to 63