Where to find the edge in Saturday’s games
Covers.com
Betting on college football is no walk in the park.
Consider the number of programs that require research, the multitude of individual matchups that demand long deliberation, and the surplus of variables that crop up on any given Saturday.
It’s overwhelming, really.
Well, we have taken care of all the research for you and located the many mismatches that can give bettors a major edge. Here are this week’s biggest:
Michigan running back Mike Hart vs. Wisconsin’s rush defense
Michigan is still in the hunt for the Big 10 crown thanks to star running back Mike Hart’s complete and utter dominance versus opposing rush defenses.
The senior running back has compiled more than 1,100 rushing yards with 14 touchdowns in eight outings this season. That’s an average of more than 140 rushing yards per contest. He ran for more than 100 yards on a meager 15 carries against a tough Michigan State defense last Saturday after missing his team’s previous two contests with a nagging right high ankle sprain.
The Badgers allowed Ohio State running back Chris Wells more than 160 yards with three touchdowns on the ground in a 38-17 loss to the Buckeyes last Saturday. Wisconsin is allowing opponents more than 145 rushing yards per contest and more than four yards per carry this season.
Michigan State defensive lineman Jonal Saint-Dic vs. Purdue’s offensive line
Michigan State defensive lineman Jonal Saint-Dic has eight forced fumbles in 10 outings this season, a rate of nearly one a game.
Saint-Dic forced seven fumbles in his first seven contests. MSU was 5-2 over that span. When he forced just a single fumble in his following three contests, his team went on a three-game losing streak.
Two of the fumbles forced by the senior defensive lineman this season led to touchdowns: once in a 24-17 loss to the top-ranked Buckeyes and the other a week earlier in a 52-27 victory over Indiana.
Meanwhile the Boilmakers have lost 10 fumbles this season, including one in their painful 26-19 loss to Penn State last Saturday. Purdue has also thrown eight interceptions, resulting in 18 total turnovers this season.
Texas Tech quarterback Graham Harrell vs. Texas’ secondary
Red Raiders star quarterback Graham Harrell leads college football’s most potent aerial attack against a struggling Longhorns defense.
Harrell leads the nation with more than 4,400 passing yards and 38 touchdowns this season and is compiling more than 440 yards per game. That yardage is nearly 40 yards more than second-ranked quarterback Colt Brennan’s average. Harrell led the Red Raiders to a 38-7 win over Baylor last Saturday, passing for more than 400 yards with three touchdowns. The top-ranked junior also passed for more than 500 yards in last season’s 35-31 loss to the Longhorns.
The Longhorns are surrendering more than 245 passing yards per contest and have registered just 10 sacks and 11 interceptions this season. They have also allowed more than 1,100 offensive yards in their last two victories over Nebraska and Oklahoma State.
Kansas State wide receiver Jordy Nelson vs. Nebraska’s secondary
Wildcats wide receiver Jordy Nelson is the most explosive receiver in college football and has the numbers to back it up.
Nelson ranks second in the country with more than 1,200 receiving yards. The senior caught 14 passes for more than 200 yards in the Wildcats’ 31-20 loss to Iowa State last Saturday. Nelson has also scored six touchdowns in his last five outings – eight over the whole season – and recorded more than 100 receiving yards with a touchdown in the Wildcats’ 30-24 loss to then 24th-ranked Kansas in October.
“Jordy Nelson is one of the top four or five receivers I've seen play in this league,” Kansas coach Mark Mangino told reporters. “He has all the tools you want.”
Nelson will face a Cornhuskers team that is allowing more than 235 receiving yards per contest with 16 receiving touchdowns this season. Nebraska gave up more than 350 passing yards with six touchdowns in an embarrassing 76-39 loss to Kansas last Saturday. The program has a meager eight interceptions this season – two at the hands of cornerback Courtney Grixby.
Missouri’s third-down offense vs. Texas A&M’s third-down defense
The Tigers have been performing in clutch situations all season due to the consistent leadership of junior quarterback Chase Daniel.
The Tigers have converted on more than 50 percent of their third-down conversion attempts this season and were an astounding 10-for-17 (59 percent) in their 55-10 win over Colorado last Saturday. The Tigers are also the eighth-ranked scoring program in the country this season with more than 40 points per contest.
Texas A&M is permitting its opponents to convert more than 46 percent of their third-down conversion attempts. They also allowed Oklahoma State to convert on 57 percent of its attempts en route to an embarrassing 42-14 loss last Saturday.
UCLA cornerbacks Brown and Vernon vs. Arizona State’s pass offense
The Bruins are barely keeping their heads above water in the Pac-10 standings after consecutive losses to Washington State and Arizona. They will need a huge performance from cornerbacks Trey Brown and Alterraun Vernon to contain the talented Sun Devils.
Brown is the top-ranked cornerback in college football this season with 17 defended passes and three interceptions. Vernon is also among the top-10 cornerbacks in the nation this campaign with 13 defended passes and three interceptions.
The Bruins defenders could cause problems for Arizona State quarterback Rudy Carpenter and leading receiver Michael Jones. Jones is averaging less than 70 receiving yards per game this season and Carpenter has thrown five of his eight interceptions in his last five outings
College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet
Covers.com
Penn State at Temple +24
Why Nittany Lions cover: Have won every game against the Owls – except for a 7-7 tie in 1950. They’ve also covered the spread in four of the last five meetings. The Lions are putting up 30.8 points per game and are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall.
Why Owls cover: Temple is holding opponents to just 370.8 yards and 28.2 points per game, which should help it to cover a 24-point spread. The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last five contests.
Total 47: The under is 4-0 in the Lions’ last four games against a team with a losing record.
Wake Forest at Clemson -9
Why Demon Deacons cover: Wake Forest has covered in four straight games against Clemson and six of its last seven overall. The defending ACC champion is holding its opponents to just 22.2 points per game.
Why Tigers cover: The Demon Deacons are allowing 224.4 passing yards per game, while Tigers QB Harper Cullen is throwing for an average of 258 yards per contest. Clemson has covered in three straight games.
Total 51: Four of the last five games between these teams have gone over the total. The over is 4-1 in the Tigers’ last five games as a home favorite.
Michigan at Wisconsin +2½
Why Wolverines cover: Michigan has covered in four straight games, outscoring opponents 137-72. The Wolverines have quarterback Chad Henne and top running back Mike Hart back from injury. Henne has thrown for 1,469 yards 14 TDs this season, while Hart has rushed 1,118 yards and 12 TDs.
Why Badgers cover: Wisconsin is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five against Michigan. The Badgers have one of the best running games in the Big Ten, putting up more than 185 yards per game this year.
Total 46½: The under is 11-3 in Michigan’s last 14 conference games.
Alabama at Mississippi State +4½
Why Crimson Tide cover: Alabama quarterback John Parker Wilson has thrown for 2,110 yards and 14 touchdowns this season. He put up a career-high 363 yards and three TDs in a 41-17 win over Tennessee two weeks ago.
Why Bulldogs cover: Mississippi State has a strong running game, led by Anthony Dixon. The sophomore running back ran for 121 yards on 25 carries against Alabama last year. The Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven against the Tide.
Total 50½: The over is 5-0 in Alabama’s last five conference games.
Arkansas at Tennessee EVEN
Why Razorbacks cover: Arkansas has won and covered in three straight games, with running back Darren McFadden leading the way. The Heisman hopeful is only the second SEC player to run for more than 1,000 yards in each of his first three seasons.
Why Volunteers cover: Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last six games and has won (and covered) in every home game this season. QB Erik Ainge ranks third in the SEC in passing yards (2,138) and touchdowns (15).
Total 64½: The under is 10-1-1 in the Volunteers’ last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Texas A&M at Missouri -19
Why Aggies cover: Texas A&M is second in the Big 12 in rushing yards per game (228.3). Its offense has run for a combined seven TDs in the last three games alone. Quarterback Stephen McGee is the team’s best rusher with 793 yards.
Why Tigers cover: Missouri is outscoring opponents by an average of 30 points on its current three-game winning streak. QB Chase Daniel is second in the conference in passing yards (2,954) third in touchdown passes (23).
Total 62: The over is 8-2 in the Tigers’ last 10 games overall.
Kentucky at Vanderbilt +3½
Why Wildcats cover: Kentucky running back Rafael Little will return from injury this week. Little ran for 132 yards and caught eight passes for 114 yards against the Commodores last year. The Wildcats have covered in three straight against Vandy.
Why Commodores cover: The Wildcats lost safety Marcus McClinton to a season-ending injury. That could open things up for Vanderbilt receiver Earl Bennet, who had 220 yards and a touchdown against Kentucky last year.
Total 57½: The under is 8-1 in the Commodores’ last nine games overall.
Boise State at Utah State +24
Why Broncos cover: Boise has won seven straight against Utah State, covering in six of those matchups. The Aggies are winless for the season and have given up 35.3 points per game.
Why Aggies cover: Utah State has covered the spread in four of its last five games, and has managed to finish within 11 points of its opponents in three straight contests.
Total 62½: The over is 4-1 in the Aggies’ last five games overall.
Texas Tech at Texas -6½
Why Red Raiders cover: Texas Tech has college football’s top offense, averaging 549.5 yards per game. QB Graham Harrell leads the nation in passing with 4,412 yards and 38 touchdowns, while freshman receiver Michael Crabtree ranks first in receiving yards with 1,512.
Why Longhorns cover: Texas has won four straight against the Raiders, covering in two of the last three. QB Colt McCoy, who has 2,632 yards and 16 TDs, threw for 256 yards and four touchdowns against Texas Tech last season.
Total 65: The under is 5-0 in the Red Raiders’ last five conference games.
Auburn at Georgia -2
Why Tigers cover: Auburn has kept opponents to seven points or fewer in four of its last five games. The Tigers are allowing just 14.5 points per contest this season, the eighth-best record in the nation.
Why Bulldogs cover: Senior running back Thomas Brown, who has 413 yards and six touchdowns in six games this season, will return from injury to face the Tigers. Georgia beat Auburn 37-15 last season, despite being an 11 ½-point underdog.
Total 44 ½: The under is 6-1 in the Tigers’ last seven conference games and 4-1 in their last five overall.
Florida State at Virginia Tech -6
Why Seminoles cover: FSU is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games and has covered in three straight against the Hokies. Last week, the Seminoles upset Boston College, recording a 27-17 win as a 6 ½-point road underdog.
Why Hokies cover: Virginia Tech’s defense ranks 11th in the country in total yards per game (300.3), and is allowing an ACC-low 14.3 points per contest. It has covered in three of its last four overall.
Total 39½: The under is 8-2 in the Hokies’ last 10 conference games.
Connecticut at Cincinnati -6½
Why Huskies cover: UConn has covered in two of the three previous meetings between the sides. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last five games, and are averaging 31.1 points per contest.
Why Bearcats cover: Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS in their last eight. Connecticut will be without fullback Lou Allen who was suspended for a violating team rules. He led the Huskies with five rushing TDs.
Total 48: The over is 4-1-1 in Cincinnati’s last six games against a team with a winning record.
Arizona State at UCLA +7
Why Sun Devils cover: The Bruins have 14 players struggling with injuries, including two quarterbacks. In fact, sophomore Oscar Rasshan will become the fourth QB used by UCLA when he starts this weekend. The Sun Devils are 6-3 ATS this season.
Why Bruins cover: UCLA has won three of the last four meetings between the teams, covering the spread in all four. The Bruins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games and have covered in three of their four homes games this season.
Total 51: The under is 10-2 in the Sun Devils’ last 12 games overall.
Illinois at Ohio State -15
Why Fighting Illini cover: Illinois is averaging 261.7 rushing yards per game. It has covered in four of the last five against Ohio State. On the defensive side, the Illini are giving up just 19.1 points per contest.
Why Buckeyes cover: The No. 1 team in the nation has covered four of its last five games, outscoring opponents by a combined 48 points. Ohio State’s defense is giving up just 9.7 points per contest, while its offense score an average of 34.9.
Total 45½: The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams.
Baylor at Oklahoma -38
Why Bears cover: Covered in three of their last four against the Sooners – and in three straight visits to Oklahoma.
Why Sooners cover: Oklahoma is 16-0 all time against the Bears and has won the last five home games by an average margin of 19 points. Tight end Jermain Greshman caught four of QB Sam Bradford’s five TD passes last week. That duo has proved to be a handful for defenses.
Total 56: The under is 12-2 in Oklahoma’s last 14 games against a team with a losing record.
Virginia at Miami -3½
Why Cavaliers cover: Virginia has covered in its last two games against Miami. The Cavaliers have set a single-season NCAA record for victories by a margin of two points or fewer, which could help them cover the 3 ½-point spread.
Why Hurricanes cover: Miami running backs Graig Cooper and Javarris James have combined for 1,143 rushing yards and eight TDs this season. James ran for 95 yards on 21 attempts against Virginia last year.
Total 41½: The under is 12-3 in Miami’s last 15 conference games.
Florida at South Carolina +6½
Why Gators cover: With sophomore quarterback Tim Tebow at the helm, Florida has won – and covered – in three of its last four games. Tebow ranks second in the conference in passing yards (2,228) and touchdown passes (21).
Why Gamecocks cover: South Carolina has covered in three of the previous four games against Florida. The Gamecocks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.
Total 59½: The over is 4-0 in the Gators’ last four games.
Boston College at Maryland +6½
Why Eagles cover: QB Matt Ryan has faced Maryland twice in his career, and has thrown for 479 yards with two touchdown passes against it. The Eagles have covered in three straight games against The Terrapins.
Why Terrapins cover: Maryland’s defense has allowed only 196.2 passing yards per game – tied for third-fewest in the conference. The Eagles could be without starting linebackers Jo-Lonn Dunbarr and Tyrone Pruitt because of injury.
Total 46½: The under is 4-1 in Terrapins’ last five home games and 5-0 in the Eagles’ last five on the road.
Louisiana Tech at Louisiana State -36½
Why Bulldogs cover: Louisiana Tech has a strong running game, with Patrick Jackson and Daniel Porter leading the way. The two RBs have combined for 1,332 yards and 14 TDs this season.
Why Tigers cover: Louisiana State averages 37.2 points and 439.8 yards of offense per game, while its defense allows 234.7 yards. The Tigers have covered the spread in three straight games.
Total 54½: The last four LSU games have gone over the total.
Kansas at Oklahoma State +5½
Why Jayhawks cover: The Jayhawks are the only perfect ATS team in the nation, with an 8-0 record. They are also 9-0 straight-up. Last week, they recorded a massive 76-39 win over Nebraska, the fifth time this season they scored more than forty points.
Why Cowboys cover: Oklahoma State has covered the spread in seven straight meetings with Kansas. The Cowboys have the third-best offense in the Big 12, averaging 499.3 yards per game.
Total 66½: The under is 6-2 in Oklahoma State’s last eight games as a home underdog.
Southern California at California +4
Why Trojans cover: USC quarterback John David Booty returned from injury last week and threw for 157 yards and two TDs against Oregon State. The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams.
Why Golden Bears cover: California is averaging 237.4 passing yards and 31.8 points per contest. QB Nate Longshore threw for 176 yards and one TD against USC last season.
Total 51 ½: Seven consecutive USC games have gone under the total. Five of the last six California games have done the same.
Fresno State at Hawaii -17½
Why Bulldogs cover: Fresno State has covered in two of its last three meetings with Hawaii. The Bulldogs have won five of their last six games to go 6-3, with freshman running back Ryan Matthews putting up 751 yards and 12 touchdowns for the season.
Why Warriors cover: Hawaii QB Colt Brennan threw for 409 yards and five touchdowns in a 68-37 win over Fresno State last season. The Heisman hopeful has thrown for 2,820 yards and 26 touchdowns this season.
Total 72½: The over is 4-0 in the Bulldogs’ last five road games.
Outside the Top 25: Irish fling
Covers.com
It wasn’t a fantastic debut.
Week 10 was my first crack at filling Julian Dickinson’s shoes with a weekly rundown of the sassiest matchups beyond the national rankings. I ended up 2-3, with Air Force and Illinois responsible for paydays as double-digit favorites. I also suggested Wake Forest at pick ‘em. It was a nearly forgivable oversight as the Deacons lost by a single point (and closed as 1½-point underdogs).
Taking Tulane at home with the points over Tulsa was bad. I’d like to blame Matt Forte, who managed only 103 rushing yards after posting four straight 200-yard games. But I’m to blame for not seeing how the Golden Hurricane offense would tear up the Superdome turf.
Then there’s Notre Dame, who I said could score at will against Navy. Indeed they could. Too bad the Irish defense stopped runs about as effectively as a jumbo-sized bowl of chili.
On to Week 11 and an improved record. I’m looking at another Notre Dame game as the Irish prepare to face another running team – guess which side I’m on this week?
North Carolina at North Carolina State -3½, 43½
The Tar Heels have won their last three clashes with the Pack despite being underdogs in each. Beating NC State, in fact, was about the only highlight of John Bunting’s final year on the UNC sideline. Butch Davis is now the man in Chapel Hill and he’s overseen an improvement in recent weeks – North Carolina is 4-1 ATS over its last five games.
NC State was 0-4 SU and ATS against top-tier competition in September, thanks largely to injuries in its backfield. The Pack have since gone 4-0 ATS with three straight wins as an underdog. Now NC State is favored for the first time since Week 1. They face a Tar Heels team that plays only 26 miles away (i.e. motivation won’t be an issue) and has recently dominated head-to-head meetings.
Both teams lack playmakers. Both have improved more on ‘D’ than on ‘O’ as the season has progressed. That combination makes me lean toward a low-scoring game. And the lower-scoring a game is, the more tempting it gets to take the underdog with the points.
Air Force at Notre Dame +3, 43½
Last Saturday’s loss to Navy proved what we all suspected about Notre Dame this season: the Irish are so bad they’ve rendered the team’s history absolutely meaningless. So take your “Notre Dame is 9-1 SU against Air Force in the last 20 seasons” stats and toss ‘em out the window.
Charlie Weis has given up on 2007. He went for it on every fourth down situation, even to the team’s detriment, and is toying with the idea of a two-quarterback rotation this weekend.
Air Force, in the meantime, has a shot at the MWC title. These Falcons don’t fly, preferring to pound opponents on the ground, as evidenced by their 437 rushing yards against Army last week. Considering how ineffective the Irish looked against Navy’s run, Notre Dame may have to depend on its finale against Duke to avoid a winless ’07 campaign at home.
Houston at Tulsa -1, N/A
The C-USA West crown is effectively on the line in Tulsa on Saturday. A Houston win clinches the division, while a Tulsa win leaves the Golden Hurricane needing only a win at Rice in the season closer to secure a berth in the conference championship game.
If any weekend game is going to be a case of “last touchdown wins”, it’s this one. There are only three schools in the FBS (formerly Division I-A) averaging more than 80 offensive snaps per game. Houston and Tulsa are two of them.
The difference is Tulsa’s propensity to turn the ball over. The Golden Hurricane have given the ball away 19 times in their six conference games, a big reason they’re only 1-5 ATS in C-USA this season. Houston’s defensive speed should capitalize on Tulsa’s carelessness on Saturday and carry the Cougars to the division title.
Louisiana-Lafayette at Middle Tennessee State -13½, 62½
Louisiana’s Ragin’ Cajuns held South Carolina to 28 points in Week 1 and easily covered as 28½-point underdogs. It was their defensive highlight of the season. ULL has since gone 1-7 SU and 1-6 ATS, allowing 41.6 points per game along the way. The Ragin’ Cajuns gave up 59 points at Tennessee last weekend and 52 at Arkansas State in their most recent conference road game.
Middle Tennessee State, on the other hand, has become the Sun Belt’s best bet since starting the season 0-4. The Blue Raiders are 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS over their last six games and have looked explosive since QB Joe Craddock returned from a back injury.
ULL won straight-up as a double-digit underdog in its two most recent trips to Murfeesboro, but this season’s Ragin’ Cajuns aren’t up to repeating the feat. MTSU alumni should enjoy a comfortable win at Floyd Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
Wyoming at Utah -13½, 43½
The line for this game wouldn’t have approached double-digits if it had been scheduled in late September. At the time, Wyoming was 4-1 and sitting pretty in the MWC while injury-riddled Utah had just been shut out by UNLV to fall to 1-3.
The Utes have since regained their misplaced mojo, going 4-0 SU and ATS in October. They averaged 443 yards per game last month, compared to the 304 per game in their opening five games. Utah now plays at home, both confident after its recent success and rested after last week’s bye.
Wyoming’s strength remains its defense, but its offense has weakened as the season progresses. The program managed only three second-half points and 250 total yards last week as San Diego State passed them in the MWC standings. Those numbers won’t improve in Salt Lake City against the conference’s stingiest defense.
Kent State at Northern Illinois +3 ½, 48½
Kent State stuck a true freshman under center in its last game. While the Golden Flashes didn’t win or cover, don’t blame the kid. Giorgio Morgan hit 18 of 28 passes for 247 yards in the 10-point home loss to Central Michigan. Morgan also threw for three touchdowns and didn’t turn the ball over.
Morgan and the Flashes used last weekend’s bye week to get the offense back up to snuff. Kent State was 0-4 SU and ATS last month but faces a Northern Illinois team that allowed 114 points over its last two games.
Would-be NIU backers suggest the 1-8 Huskies have a shot against the MAC East’s last-place club. But Northern Illinois has simply gotten worse as the season continues and will likely live down to its shoddy expectations on Saturday. Its run defense has allowed over 330 yards to each of NIU’s last two foes, bad news with the MAC’s leading rusher, Eugene Jarvis, coming to DeKalb.
Saturday's College Football TV Capsules
November 8, 2007
Michigan Wolverines @ Wisconsin Badgers
Opening Line: Michigan by 3 1/2.
Series Record: Michigan leads 48-11-1.
Last Meeting: 2006, Michigan 27-13
Last Meeting: 2006, Michigan 27-13
Five of the last six meetings have been decided by seven points or less. ... Michigan is 21-4-1 in Madison. ... The Wolverines have won seven of the last eight meetings but lost last time in Madison. ... Lloyd Carr is 7-1 against Wisconsin. ... Quarterback Chad Henne needs nine passing yards to set Michigan's career yardage record. ... Wisconsin is 24-1 at home since 2004. ... The Badgers have averaged 33.3 points per game during a 13-game home winning streak, compared to 12.8 for their opponents. ... Wisconsin is looking to go undefeated at home for the second consecutive season. The last time the Badgers went two seasons without a home loss was 1950-51 (8-0-1).
Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Clemson Tigers
Opening Line: Clemson by 9.
Series Record: Clemson leads 55-16-1.
Last Meeting: 2006, Clemson 27-17
Last Meeting: 2006, Clemson 27-17
Wake Forest has not won at Clemson since 1998. ... Wake Forest leads the ACC with nine non_offensive touchdowns this year. WR Kenneth Moore leads the conference in receptions per game (7.2). ... Since 1994, Clemson has won 10 of 13 against Wake Forest. ... The Tigers have won 21 of their last 23 against Wake Forest in Death Valley.
Texas AM Aggies @ Missouri Tigers
Opening Line: Missouri by 16 1/2.
Series Record: Texas A&M leads 7-2.
Last Meeting: 2006, Texas A&M 25-19
Last Meeting: 2006, Texas A&M 25-19
Running back Jorvorskie Lane is one touchdown away from becoming Texas A&M's all-time leading scorer among non-place-kickers and the first Aggie to score 100 points in a single season twice. ... Texas A&M is second in the Big 12 in rushing offense (228.3 yards per game). ... Missouri has won 14 of its last 15 at home. ... Missouri is sixth in the nation in scoring offense (42 points per game) and only 21 points away from breaking the school record for points in a season (399).
Kansas State Wildcats @ Nebraska Cornhuskers
Opening Line: Kansas State by 7.
Series Record: Nebraska leads 74-15-2.
Last Meeting: 2006, Nebraska 21-3
Last Meeting: 2006, Nebraska 21-3
Kansas State WR Jordy Nelson is second in the nation in receptions (10 per game), receiving (135.8 yards per game), and total receiving yards (1,222). ... Since 1998, the Wildcats are 1-3 in Lincoln with the lone win being a 38-9 triumph in 2003. ... Kansas State has won three of the last five meetings. ... Nebraska is looking for its third straight win over Kansas State and its 19th in the past 20 meetings at Lincoln. ... Nebraska is third in the Big 12 in passing offense (288.3 yards per game), but last in rushing defense (240.1) and total defense (477.6).
Air Force Falcons @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Opening Line: PK.
Series Record: Notre Dame leads 22-5.
Last Meeting: 2006, Notre Dame 39-17
Last Meeting: 2006, Notre Dame 39-17
Air Force is 7-0 when it has a player rush for over 100 yards and 0-3 when it doesn't. ... Air Force has not beaten Notre Dame since a 20-17 overtime victory at South Bend in 1996, when the Irish were ranked ninth. ... Air Force is fourth in the nation in rushing (272.8 yards per game). ... Notre Dame has won 12 of the last 13 meetings. ... The Irish have scored 30 or more points in nine of their last 12 against Air Force, averaging 38.9 points in those contests.
Illinois Fighting Illini @ Ohio State Buckeyes
Opening Line: Ohio State by 16.
Series Record: Ohio State leads 60-29-4.
Last Meeting: 2006, Ohio State l7-10
Last Meeting: 2006, Ohio State l7-10
The winner gets the Illibuck Trophy. ... Illinois is 3-14 against No. 1 opponents. Their last win over a top-ranked team was in 1956, when the Illini beat Michigan State 20-13. ... Rashard Mendenhall is 17 yards away from breaking the Illini single-season rushing record (1,330). ... Illinois leads the Big Ten in rushing and is sixth in the nation (261.3 yards per game). ... Ohio State has a Big Ten-record 20 straight conference wins. ... The Buckeyes have won the last three meetings and lead the Illibuck series 56-22-2, but Illinois has won in two of the last three matchups at Ohio Stadium. ... Ohio State leads the nation in scoring defense (9.7 points per game) and total defense (221.2 yards per game).
Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Texas Longhorns
Opening Line: Texas by 4 1/2.
Series Record: Texas leads 42-14.
Last Meeting: 2006, Texas 35-31
Last Meeting: 2006, Texas 35-31
Texas Tech leads the nation in passing offense (482.1 yards per game) and total offense (549.5 yards per game) and is fifth in scoring offense (42.4 points per game). ... The Red Raiders' last win in Austin was a 24-10 victory in 1997. ... Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell leads the nation in total offense (434.4 yards per game). ... Jamaal Charles is the first Longhorn since Ricky Williams in 1998 to run for at least three touchdowns in consecutive games. Charles has rushed for 341 yards and five touchdowns on 20 carries in the fourth quarter of the last two games.
Florida State Seminoles @ Virginia Tech Hokies
Opening Line: Virginia Tech by 5.
Series Record: Florida St. leads 21-10-1.
Last Meeting: 2005, Florida St. 27-22
Last Meeting: 2005, Florida St. 27-22
The Seminoles are attempting to beat consecutive ranked opponents on the road for the first time in 15 years. ... The last time Florida State beat an opponent ranked 11th was in 2003, a 38-34 win over Florida in Gainesville. ... With one more win, Bobby Bowden will join Joe Paterno as the only Division I-A coaches to win 300 games at one school. ... Virginia Tech's last win in the series was a 13-10 decision at Lane Stadium in 1975. ... Hokies coach Frank Beamer is 0-7 lifetime against the Seminoles. ... The Hokies have lost 12 straight to the Seminoles.
Baylor Bears @ Oklahoma Sooners
Opening Line: Oklahoma by 37.
Series Record: Oklahoma leads 16-0.
Last Meeting: 2006, Oklahoma 36-10
Last Meeting: 2006, Oklahoma 36-10
Baylor has lost 12 straight Big 12 games since its 36-35 comeback victory over Kansas on Oct. 22, 2006. ... Baylor has forced a turnover in 29 of the last 33 games. ... The Bears are 2-37 against ranked opponents since the inception of the Big 12. ... Oklahoma is the only Big 12 team that Baylor has never defeated. ... The Sooners are 52-2 at home under Bob Stoops and have won 16 in a row there and 36 of their last 37. Oklahoma is 28-1 against the Big 12 at home under Stoops and has won its last 19 conference games on Owen Field.
Virginia Cavaliers @ Miami (FL) Hurricanes
Opening Line: Miami by 4.
Series Record: Miami leads 3-1.
Last Meeting: 2006, Virginia 17-7
Last Meeting: 2006, Virginia 17-7
The Cavaliers have won eight of their last nine games. They won their last four victories by a combined five points. ... Virginia has set an NCAA FBS record with five victories by two points or fewer. ... Virginia has played 15 games in the state of Florida and has lost each one. ... It is Miami's final game in the Orange Bowl. ... The Hurricanes are 4-2 this season at home, but have lost their last two. ... Miami is 8-6 at home in ACC, since joining it in 2004. ACC teams are averaging 13.5 points per game against Miami in the Orange Bowl.
Florida Gators @ South Carolina Gamecocks
Opening Line: Florida by 4 1/2.
Series Record: Florida leads 20-4-3.
Last Meeting: 2006, Florida 17-16.
Last Meeting: 2006, Florida 17-16.
Florida has won 14 of the last 15 meetings. ... Since 2003, Urban Meyer-led teams have gone 13-1 in November with the one loss coming on Nov. 12, 2005 at South Carolina (30-22). ... Florida is one of only two schools in the nation to have rushed and passed for a touchdown in every game this season. ... South Carolina is first in the nation in passing defense (149.2 yards per game) and 10th in pass efficiency defense (99.85). ... The Gamecocks have not had back-to-back wins over Florida since 1936 (7-6) and 1939 (6-0).
Kansas Jayhawks @ Oklahoma State Cowboys
Opening Line: Kansas by 5 1/2.
Series Record: Series tied 28-28-3.
Last Meeting: 2006, Oklahoma St. 42-32
Last Meeting: 2006, Oklahoma St. 42-32
Kansas is 3-0 on the road this season and has won four of its last five away from Lawrence. ... The Jayhawks are 9-0 for the first time since 1908. ... Kansas is second in the nation in scoring offense (46.22 points per game) and scoring defense (13.44), sixth in rushing defense (77.7) and seventh in total defense (288.3). ... The Cowboys have won five straight in the series. During their current five-game winning streak against the Jayhawks, Oklahoma State is averaging 44.8 points per game. ... Oklahoma State is eighth in the nation in rushing offense (246.3 yards per game), and total offense (499.3). ... The Cowboys' last win over a top 10 team came in 2002, a 38-28 victory over No. 3 Oklahoma.
Southern California Trojans @ California Bears
Opening Line: Southern Cal by 4.
Series Record: Southern Cal leads 59-30-5.
Last Meeting: 2006, Southern Cal 23-9
Last Meeting: 2006, Southern Cal 23-9
This is the Trojans' 95th meeting with California, but their first night game in Berkeley. ... USC coach Pete Carroll is 21-0 all-time in November. ... The Trojans have won five of the last six meetings. ... Southern Cal is 30-13-1 in Berkeley and has won seven of the past 10. ... Southern Cal is third in the nation in total defense (253.3 yards per game). ... California has won 22 of its last 25 home games. Cal is outscoring opponents 1007-476 over the last 25 home games. ... The Golden Bears are third in the nation in sacks allowed (0.9 per game). ... California is third in the Pac-10 in scoring offense (31.8 points per game).
Boston College Eagles @ Maryland Terrapins
Opening Line: Boston College by 5 1/2.
Series Record: Boston College leads 3-1.
Last Meeting: 2006, Boston College 38-16
Last Meeting: 2006, Boston College 38-16
Boston College leads the nation in rushing defense (58 yards per game) and is third in interceptions (18). ... Since 2003, Boston College is 21-8 on the road, including 3-0 this season. ... Eagles QB Matt Ryan is 22-5 as a starter. ... Maryland has lost the last three to Boston College. ... The Terrapins are fifth in the ACC in rushing (149.9 yards per game). ... Maryland is facing a third top 10 team in a season for just the second time in school history. The Terps lost 31-14 to No. 4 West Virginia and beat No. 10 Rutgers 34-24 in 1982.
Washington Huskies @ Oregon State Beavers
Opening Line: OFF.
Series Record: Washington leads 57-30-4.
Last Meeting: 2006, Oregon State 27-17
Last Meeting: 2006, Oregon State 27-17
With four games left to play, RB Louis Rankin needs just 207 more yards and QB Jake Locker needs 209 to reach 1,000 yards for Washington. The school has never had two 1,000-yard rushers in the same season. ... Washington is second in the Pac-10 in rushing (192.8 yards per game). ... The Beavers have won three straight in the series, all in Seattle, and four of the last six games. Oregon State has never won four straight against Washington. ... Oregon State is second in the nation in rushing defense (59.6 yards per game) and 10th in total defense (298.4).
Fresno St Bulldogs @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Opening Line: Hawaii by 16.
Series Record: Fresno St. leads 20-18-1.
Last Meeting: 2006, Hawaii 68-37
Last Meeting: 2006, Hawaii 68-37
Fresno State has won two of the last three meetings. ... Since 2000, Fresno State has won 21 of its last 25 November games. ... The Bulldogs are third in the WAC in rushing (197.2 yards per game) and passing defense (116.03). ... Hawaii has a school-record 12-game WAC winning streak. ... Hawaii QB Colt Brennan has 119 career touchdown passes, two shy of Ty Detmer's national record of 121. ... The Warriors lead the nation with a scoring average of 51.9 points per game.
Games to Watch - Week 11
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Saturday - Michigan at Wisconsin (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)
Skinny
After losing two straight games to start the season, Michigan (8-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) has ripped off eight consecutive victories and is one win away from a showdown with top-ranked Ohio State. Before the Wolverines look ahead, they need to get past Wisconsin (7-3 SU, 3-6 ATS) this weekend. The Badgers' defense gave up 28 unanswered points in last week's 38-17 loss to the aforementioned Buckeyes. Michigan is still banged up, with quarterback Chad Henne (shoulder) and Mike Hart (ankle) nursing injuries. Wisconsin could be without the duties of its starting running back P.J. Hill (leg), who is 'questionable'.
Gambling Notes
Last year, Michigan dropped Wisconsin 27-13 as a 14-point home favorite. Despite winning the game, Henne was intercepted three times and Hart was held to 91 yards. Wisconsin is 6-0 SU and 3-2 ATS at home this year, while Michigan has posted a solid 3-0 SU and 1-1-1 ATS mark on the road. The 'under' has cashed in six straight games between the two schools.
Saturday - Auburn at Georgia (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)
Skinny
Georgia (7-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) continues to impress behind running back Knowshon Moreno (1,003 yards, nine TDs), but the Bulldogs face a stout Auburn (7-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) defense between the hedges on Saturday. The Tigers are giving up 14.5 PPG and have held their last two opponents to a combined six points. Tommy Tuberville's team has lost three games by a combined 14 points. Auburn's offense is inconsistent but the Dawgs' defense has surrendered 30-plus points in three of their last four games. Georgia needs to win out and hope Tennessee loses one of its last two in order to reach the title game, while Auburn needs the same and then wish for LSU to lose.
Gambling Notes
The road team has won seven of the previous 10 battles between the two schools, including Georgia's 37-15 win over Auburn last season. The game was never in doubt as the Bulldogs built a 30-7 lead at the break by taking advantage of four Brandon Cox interceptions. Auburn is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS on the road, while Georgia is 4-1 SU and 2-2 ATS at home.
Saturday - Florida at South Carolina (ESPN, 7:45 p.m.)
Skinny
Familiar foes meet on Saturday Night, as Florida (6-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) faces former coach Steve Spurrier and South Carolina (6-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) from Columbia. The Gators still have an outside shot for a trip to the SEC title game, but they need to win out and get some help. South Carolina is mired in a three-game losing streak both SU and ATS. The Gamecocks' run defense has been horrendous, giving up a combined 788 yards during this stretch. Look for Tim Tebow (598 yards) and Percy Harvin (442 yards) to help the Gators' ground game.
Gambling Notes
Spurrier knocked off Florida 30-22 as a four-point home underdog, marking the school's first victory over the Gators since 1939. Florida almost lost two in a row to USC, barely squeaking out a 17-16 win last year but failing to cover as a 13-point home favorite. The Gators are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in road/neutral games, while the Gamecocks have gone 4-1 SU and 2-2 ATS at home.
Saturday - Southern California at California (ABC/GP, 8:00 p.m.)
Skinny
Second place in the Pac 10 appears to be on the line Saturday, when USC (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) visits California (6-3 SU, 3-6 ATS). This battle has lost some of the luster due to losses by both schools but the Trojans are still hoping for a BCS berth, which is very likely if Oregon gets an opportunity to play in the title game. USC bounced back with a 24-3 victory over Oregon State last week, its second best defensive game of the year. Cal snapped a three-game losing skid last Saturday by defeating Washington State, 20-17. The Bears' offense could have trouble against the Trojans' defense that is allowing Pac 10 lows of 15.9 PPG and 253 YPG.
Gambling Notes
Southern Cal has won three straight against Cal, including last year's 23-9 victory at the L.A. Coliseum. The combined 32 points never threatened the closing total of 55, helping the 'under' cash for the third straight meeting. USC is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS on the road this year, while Cal is 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS at Berkley. Cal is 0-4 in its last four games against the spread. USC is an eye opening 21-0 in November under head coach Pete Carroll. The Trojans have seen the 'under' go 8-1 on the year.
Other Games to Watch
Virginia (8-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) continues to be a surprise story in the ACC, winning six of its eight games by five points or less. Meanwhile, Miami (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS) has disappointed and hopes to close the Orange Bowl with a win. Cavs are ranked 21st, yet catching points. Hmmm???
Oklahoma State (5-4 SU, 4-3 ATS) had a shot to knock off Texas last week but was outscored 24-0 in the final quarter en route to a 35-32 loss. This week, the Cowboys have another opportunity but versus a much better foe in fifth-ranked Kansas (9-0 SU, 8-0 ATS) on Saturday. The Jayhawks lead the Big 12 in scoring offense (46.2 PPG) and defense (13.4 PPG).
Hawaii (8-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) is four victories away from running the table and possible earning a BCS at-large berth. Seems unlikely considering strength of schedule, but most would expect the Warriors to run it up against this week's opponent, Fresno State (6-3 SU, 4-4 ATS), and others
Southern Cal at California
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Most experts pegged the Southern Cal-California contest as the Pac-10 Game of the Year this summer that would decide who would go to the Rose Bowl. Many pundits had the Trojans fighting for yet another berth in the National Championship Game, while the Golden Bears were thought to be battling for their first Rose Bowl appearance since 1959.
However with the unexpected rise of both Oregon and Arizona State, the USC-Cal contest this weekend is a battle for third place and most likely a slot in the Sun Bowl. Both teams were ranked second in the polls at one time this season before falling on hard times.
Saturday’s matchup figures to be a battle between Southern Cal’s defense against Cal’s offense. The Trojans lead the Pac-10 in scoring defense (15.9 points per game), total defense (253.3) and pass defense (173.1), while second in rushing defense (80.2). Cal has incredible speed at the skill positions, from running back Justin Forsett to wideouts DeSean Jackson and Lavelle Hawkins, to counter USC.
Stations Casinos installed Southern Cal as a four-point road ‘chalk’ over California, with the total set at 51. ABC Sports will provide coverage of this Pac-10 tilt beginning at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Southern Cal (7-2 straight up, 4-5 against the spread) extracted a small amount of revenge by beating Oregon State last weekend as a 15 ½-point home favorite, 24-3. The Trojans have won or shared the previous five Pac-10 titles, but currently reside in a third-place tie with rival UCLA at 4-2 in conference play.
Quarterback John David Booty returned to action from a broken middle finger on his throwing hand to complete 19-of-33 passes for 157 yards with two touchdowns. Running back Chauncey Washington had 12 carries for 60 yards with a score, while wideout Vidal Hazelton caught five passes for 53 yards.
USC put the game away with three touchdowns in the second quarter, limiting the Beavers to just 176 yards of total offense. Freshman Everson Griffen led the defensive charge with 3 ½ of the teams’ nine sacks. The Trojans are an incredible 21-0 in November games for head coach Pete Carroll.
California (6-3 SU, 3-6 ATS) had dropped three games in a row SU before slipping past Washington State last weekend as a 14 ½-point home favorite, 20-17. The combined 37 points never seriously threatened the 63-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the third consecutive contest. The Golden Bears have failed to cover their last four outings.
Quarterback Nate Longshore was 26-of-39 passing for 213 yards with an interception, while Forsett ran 32 times for 132 yards with two touchdowns. Hawkins (nine catches for 78 yards) and Jackson (five receptions for 45 yards) also contributed in the victory. Cal now maintains a 3-3 conference record, tied for fifth place with Oregon State.
The Golden Bears finished the contest with advantages in first downs (22-17), rushing yards (169-52) and time of possession (37:27-22:33). Washington State made the game closer by posting 11 points in the fourth quarter.
Southern Cal is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS the previous three encounters with Cal, while the ‘under’ has cashed each time. The Trojans triumphed last season as a 6 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ 23-9, while the combined 32 points never seriously threatened the 55-point closing total.
USC running back Stafon Johnson (foot) and cornerback Vincent Joseph (academics) are ‘questionable’ versus the Golden Bears, while offensive tackle Sam Baker (hamstring) is ‘doubtful.’
Cal defensive back Robert Peele (ankle) and strong safety Marcus Ezeff (quad) are ‘questionable’ against the Trojans, while defensive end Rulon Davis (knee) is ‘doubtful.’
Southern Cal doesn’t have to play again until Thanksgiving Day when the team travels to Arizona State. Cal travels to Washington next weekend before its annual Big Game at Stanford December 1.
Saturday’s forecast for Berkeley, California calls for a few showers, with a high of 60 degrees and a low of 48.
Look Ahead and Let Down -- Week 11
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Just when you think that all is getting back to normal on the college gridiron, it slaps you back into reality. Boston College had the look of a team that would be fit for a let down two weeks after escaping Blacksburg with a win. And the Eagles didn’t disappoint (or did they?) by losing at home to Florida State, 27-17. That result opens the ‘Noles up to a perfect trap play.
Set up to be scalped…
Florida State found itself in the strange position of being the team looking to upset the national title contender last week against the Eagles. But the Seminoles pulled out a win last week in Chestnut Hill. Their reward is a trip to Lane Stadium for a tilt against the Hokies as 6 ½-point road ‘dogs this Saturday.
The ‘Noles have owned Virginia Tech over the past decade. They are 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS against the Hokies since 1988. However, Florida State has failed to string together two consecutive wins over teams with winning records this year. And the odds are pretty good that Frank Beamer can get his team off the snide this weekend.
Don’t look past Bucky…
The Wolverines had their hands full last Saturday up in East Lansing, barely beating Michigan State as 4 ½-point road favorites, 28-24. Now Michigan has the unenviable task of heading up to Camp Randall Stadium and taking on the Badgers as a 2 ½-point road “chalk.”
Michigan is banged up already on offense. Chad Henne is going to play, despite having a separated shoulder. And Mike Hart is still nursing his right ankle. But those two will play hurt no matter what the injury might be.
I’ll be honest, the odds that the Wolverines will trip up here are slim and none, with slim walking right out the door. Michigan is 7-0 and 5-2 ATS in its last seven games leading into the season finale with the top-ranked Buckeyes. But Wisky did win the last game against UM in Madison as a three-point home dog, 23-20, back in 2005.
It’s a long shot, but crazier things have happened against Michigan this year.
The return of Sparky…
So much for the miracle title run for Arizona State this season. Still, the Sun Devils have a chance at making a BCS bowl this year and that is plenty to play for, if you ask me. They’ll start their redemption tour with an easy contest against UCLA at the Rose Bowl as 6 ½-point road favorites.
The Bruins have controlled the recent series, going 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings. However, Karl Dorrell’s squad has fallen on hard times this year. UCLA has dropped games to the Utes, Irish, Cougars and Wildcats…not exactly top shelf talent.
Besides, UCLA hasn’t really stopped any good passing teams yet, giving up 255.7 YPG through the air. That isn’t a good thing when you have an Arizona State passing attack that is throwing for 268.8 YPG this season.
This game will help the Sun Devils regain confidence they lost at Oregon last weekend.
FBS College Football - Week 11 Predictions
Below is a compilation of The Sports Network's predictions for the top games in Week 11 of the college football season.
Wake Forest (6-3) at (20) Clemson (7-2), Saturday, 12 pm
The Tigers are on a roll right now and get the Demon Deacons in Death Valley. This is an important contest, as jockeying for position in the Atlantic Division starts this week. Clemson has the better offense and that should be the difference in this one.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Clemson 27, Wake Forest 17
(13) Michigan (8-2) at Wisconsin (7-3), Saturday, 12 pm
Michigan is the better team here, but Wisconsin isn't far behind and has the luxury of playing this one in front of the hometown faithful. That said, expect the Wolverines' multi-faceted offense to take control late and help the squad to victory, setting up next week's much-anticipated showdown with top- ranked Ohio State.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Michigan 27, Wisconsin 23
Texas A&M (6-4) at (7) Missouri (8-1), Saturday, 12:30 pm
Missouri is clicking on all cylinders right now and that is bad news for a Texas A&M club that has struggled on the road this season. With Chase Daniel leading the charge, the Tigers should have no problem exploiting the Aggies' soft pass defense en route to the victory.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Missouri 40, Texas A&M 20
Arkansas (6-3) at (22) Tennessee (6-3), Saturday, 12:30 pm
Although this game is being played in Knoxville, the edge has to go to Arkansas. The Razorbacks will pound Darren McFadden and Felix Jones against the weak run defense of the Vols with great success.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Arkansas 37, Tennessee 27
(21) Alabama (6-3) at Mississippi State (5-4), Saturday, 12:34 pm
Expect this game to go down to the wire, as MSU is much better than many folks expected. Alabama will get the win, but it will take four quarters of sound football to knock off the Bulldogs.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Alabama 27, Mississippi State 24
(24) Kentucky (6-3) at Vanderbilt (5-4), Saturday, 2 pm
Go with Kentucky this weekend, as the Wildcats are better than they showed in their last outing. Andre Woodson will make better decisions and spread the ball around to his talented wideouts.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Kentucky 31, Vanderbilt 17
(19) Boise State (8-1) at Utah State (0-9), Saturday, 3:05
Although the perfect season was lost quite some time ago, Boise State still has a major bowl game as a possible reward for coming back strong. Beating up on opponents like Utah State are nothing more than a prelude to the showdown with nationally-ranked Hawaii in two weeks in Honolulu.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Boise State 51, Utah State 17
(16) Connecticut (8-1) at Cincinnati (7-2), Saturday, 3:30 pm
UConn keeps surprising Big East members each week, but Cincinnati will surely come prepared for this one. As a matter of fact, the Bearcats seem to match up pretty well with the Huskies and with the support of their home crowd, they should be able to find a way to win this game.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Cincinnati 31, Connecticut 17
(18) Auburn (7-3) at (10) Georgia (7-2), Saturday, 3:30 pm
Go with the home team in this matchup, as Georgia is playing with a wealth of confidence. This game will likely be a low-scoring affair, and the Bulldogs' push for an SEC title will continue.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Georgia 17, Auburn 13
Illinois (7-3) at (1) Ohio State (10-0), Saturday, 3:30 pm
Ohio State has to be extremely careful not to look past Illinois, with Michigan on the horizon. If this were a road game, the Illini might be able to score an upset, but that won't happen in Columbus.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Ohio State 27, Illinois 14
Texas Tech (7-3) at (15) Texas (8-2), Saturday, 3:30 pm
Of course, Texas seems like the logical pick at home, but we are going with the Red Raiders. Texas Tech wideout Michael Crabtree was held in check last week, but that won't happen again. Clearly, Colt McCoy is the second-best quarterback in this matchup.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Texas Tech 35, Texas 32
(9) Arizona State (8-1) at U-C-L-A (5-4), Saturday, 3:30 pm
Arizona State will bounce back strong with a road win over the Bruins, who have looked weak the last two outings. Sure, UCLA plays its best ball at home, but the offense is decimated with injury.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Arizona State 30, UCLA 21
Florida State (6-3) at (11) Virginia Tech (7-2), Saturday, 3:30 pm
The Seminoles come in with plenty of momentum and have owned this series over the last few decades. However, winning two straight huge road games is next to impossible in the now top-heavy ACC.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Virginia Tech 23, Florida State 17
Baylor (3-7) at (4) Oklahoma (8-1), Saturday, 6:30 pm
Clearly, Oklahoma is far superior to Baylor and should cruise to victory. The Sooners will have a chance to rest its starters, as players like Sam Bradford may not step foot on the playing field in the second half.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Oklahoma 62, Baylor 7
(23) Virginia (8-2) at Miami-Florida (5-4), Saturday, 7:15 pm
All those rushing yards for Miami came against an NC State defense that ranks last in the ACC in stopping the run. The Hurricanes won't enjoy the same type of success against a much more formidable UVA front. When Miami does drop back to pass, figure on Chris Long to disrupt a play or two and perhaps cause a turnover with his relentless pressure.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Virginia 20, Miami-Florida 17
(17) Florida (6-3) at South Carolina (6-4), Saturday, 7:45 pm
Although South Carolina will likely keep things close at home, expect Florida to prevail. Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin are a lethal combination, and asking the mediocre Gamecock defense to keep those two players in check is unrealistic.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Florida 27, South Carolina 17
(12) U-S-C (7-2) at (24) California (6-3), Saturday, 8 pm
This will be USC's first-ever night game in Berkeley, and expect the Trojans to put on a good show. The visiting team doesn't have the star power that Cal has on offense, but brings a better defensive unit into this game.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: USC 21, California 18
Louisiana Tech (4-5) at (2) L-S-U (8-1), Saturday, 8 pm
LSU should have this one put away by intermission. LaTech will be lucky to reach double figures in the scoring column.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: LSU 52, Louisiana Tech 6
(8) Boston College (8-1) at Maryland (4-5), Saturday, 8 pm
The Eagles have to be discouraged by last week's loss, but head coach Jeff Jagodzinski will find a way to motivate his team the rest of the way. There is still plenty to accomplish in Chestnut Hill, so expect BC to play with a bit of a chip on its shoulder this weekend.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Boston College 34, Maryland 14
(5) Kansas (9-0) at Oklahoma State (5-4), Saturday, 8 pm
Every week, Kansas is expected to finally fall from the ranks of the unbeaten. That will finally happen this week. Oklahoma State is eager to avenge the loss to Texas, and the Pokes need only one more victory to become bowl-eligible.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Oklahoma State 31, Kansas 27
Fresno State (6-3) at (14) Hawaii (8-0), Saturday, 11:05 pm
The Bulldogs have shown a lot more bite this season than they did in 2006, but for them to leave Honolulu on a high note they'll have to contain Colt Brennan, something that no one has been able to do since he became a starter. The Warriors could well be looking beyond this game and down the road at the Boise State meeting, which is why it could be closer than it should.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Hawaii 49, Fresno State 27
Auburn at Georgia
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One of the nation’s premier rivalries will be renewed Saturday when Georgia plays host to Auburn at Sanford Stadium in Athens. Most sports books are listing UGA as a one-point favorite with a total of 44.
For whatever reason, the road team absolutely dominates this series. In fact, the visitor is 11-3-1 in the last 15 encounters.
Georgia (7-2 straight up, 4-4 against the spread) went into Auburn last season as an 11 ½-point underdog. Nevertheless, the Dawgs proceeded to deal out woodshed treatment in the form of a 37-15 clubbing, hooking up their money-line backers with payouts of better than 3/1.
The Dawgs are playing for the second time in a three-game homestand that precedes their trip to Atlanta to face Georgia Tech in the regular-season finale. They are off a 44-34 win over Troy as 14-point favorites.
Knowshon Moreno continued to feast on opponents by rushing 26 times for 196 yards and three touchdowns. However, UGA’s defense couldn’t keep Troy out of the end zone in the final minute, as Jerrel Jernigan threw a five-yard TD pass to Jamie Hampton on the next-to-last play of the game, providing Trojan backers with the backdoor cover.
Since losing 35-14 at Tennessee on Oct. 6, Mark Richt’s team has won three straight games, starting with a stirring comeback at Vanderbilt, where the Dawgs trailed by double digits at intermission and needed a last-second field goal to secure a 20-17 triumph.
Two weeks ago, UGA made headlines by thumping Florida 42-30 as a 7 ½-point underdog. In a season when veteran RBs like Thomas Brown and Kregg Lumpkin have been plagued by injuries, Moreno has erupted onto the scene.
The redshirt freshman is third in the SEC in rushing behind only Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. Moreno has rushed for 1,003 yards and nine touchdowns. He is averaging 5.6 yards per carry.
Moreno’s emergence has allowed quarterback Matthew Stafford to thrive more, particulary passing the ball off play-action fakes. For the season, Stafford has 1,796 passing yards with a touchdown-interception ratio of 15/6. That’s a huge improvement from last season when Stafford had a 7/13 TD-INT ratio as a true freshman.
Auburn (7-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) has covered the spread in five of its last six games after starting the season with three consecutive non-covers. The Tigers are off a 35-3 win over Tennessee Tech in a non-lined matchup. Robert Dunn caught a pair of TDs and the defense forced four turnovers.
Auburn has the SEC’s best scoring defense, allowing just 14.5 points per game. That unit has been the catalyst for the ‘under’ going 6-2 for the Tigers.
Tommy Tuberville's team has been outstanding on the road this year, posting a 2-1 SU record and a 3-0 ATS mark. Dating back to 2002, the Tigers are 10-2 ATS as road underdogs.
UGA is 1-3 ATS as a single-digit favorite this year. Meanwhile, Auburn owns a 3-0 spread record as an underdog.
In order to win the SEC East, Georgia needs to win out and Tennessee needs to lose once. As for Auburn, the Tigers need to win out and hope that both Ole Miss and Arkansas beat LSU.
According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Georgia RB Thomas Brown (collarbone) will play this week. Safety Kellin Johnson (knee) and DT Kade Weston (ankle) will also play, but safeties Donovan Baldwin (hip flexor) and Quintin Banks (knee) will not.
CBS will provide television coverage at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--The ‘over’ is on a 4-2 run in UGA’s last six games.
--Will Auburn be distracted this week by rumors that Tuberville will be Texas A&M's top target after it fires Dennis Franchione? I doubt it. For starters, I don't think Tuberville is going anywhere. Plus, he has dismissed the speculation.
--Florida quarterback Tim Tebow has an incredible 21/4 touchdown-interception ratio. The sophomore sensation has also run for 14 TDs.
--Kentucky WR Steve Johnson leads the SEC in touchdown catches with eight.
--Vandy is 9-8-2 as a home ‘dog during Bobby Johnson’s six-year tenure. The Commodores play host to Kentucky as 3 ½-point underdogs.
--South Carolina CB Captain Munnerlyn and safety Emanuel Cook both practiced Thursday and are expected to play against Florida. The Gamecocks, who are seven-point home ‘dogs against the Gators, are just 2-5 ATS as home ‘dogs under Steve Spurrier.
--Since 2000, Alabama is 6-8-1 ATS as a road favorite. The Crimson Tide play at Mississippi State as a 4 ½-point ‘chalk.’ Nick Saban’s team will be looking to avenge a 24-16 home loss to the Bulldogs last year.
Wake Forest (6-3, 5-3 ATS) at (20) Clemson (7-2, 5-3 ATS)
Clemson goes for its fourth consecutive victory when it welcomes Wake Forest to Death Valley for a critical ACC Atlantic Division showdown.
The Tigers have followed up a two-game losing skid with three straight wins, including last week’s 47-10 rout of Duke as a 17-point road chalk. They’re outscoring their opponents 147-41 during their winning streak, and outgaining them by 210 yards per game (478-268).
Wake Forest had a six-game winning streak halted in last week’s 17-16 loss at Virginia as a one-point road favorite. The Demon Deacons missed a 47-yard game-winning field-goal attempt with two seconds to play.
Clemson and Wake Forest are 4-2 in conference play, a half-game behind Boston College for first place in the Atlantic Division. Because the Demon Deacons have lost to B.C. this year while Clemson plays the Eagles next week, the Tigers control their own destiny in the division race.
Wake Forest is 4-0-2 ATS in the last six meetings, with the four spread-covers coming in the last four battles. Last year, the Deacons blew a 17-3 lead at home, losing 27-17 as a 14-point underdog. Prior to last year, the home team had won four straight meetings.
The Demon Deacons are on spread runs of 10-6 on the road and 34-16-3 as an underdog. Meanwhile, Clemson is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games and 1-7 ATS in its last eight as a home chalk.
The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings, the lone under coming last year.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WAKE FOREST and UNDER
(16) Connecticut (8-1, 7-1 ATS) at Cincinnati (7-2, 6-2 ATS)
After posting three straight impressive Big East wins at home, UConn puts its perfect league record on the line when it visits a Cincinnati team looking to follow up two straight losses with back-to-back wins.
The Huskies moved to 4-0 SU and ATS in league play with a 38-19 rout of Rutgers as a 1½-point home chalk last week. UConn won despite being outgained 510-397, the fourth straight game the Huskies finished on the short end of the yardage stick.
Cincinnati rebounded from consecutive league losses to Louisville at home and Pitt on the road with last week’s 38-33 upset win at South Florida as a five-point road underdog. Like UConn against Rutgers, the Bearcats got outgained (481-375), but they took advantage of eight South Florida turnovers (four fumbles, four INTs).
Cincinnati has defeated UConn each of the last two seasons, winning 28-17 as a seven-point road underdog in 2005 and 26-23 as a five-point home chalk last year. The dog has gotten the cash in the last three meetings.
The Bearcats are on a 13-4-1 ATS roll, including 7-2 ATS at home and 7-1-1 ATS against winning teams.
UConn has cashed in all three of its road games this year and all four of its games as an underdog. But over the long haul, the Huskies are just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as a road underdog and 2-6 ATS in its last eight on artificial turf.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI
(9) Arizona State (8-1, 6-3 ATS) at UCLA (5-4 SU and ATS)
Arizona State hits the road for the second straight week, this time hoping for a different result when it takes on Pac-10 rival UCLA.
The Sun Devils tasted defeat for the first time in 2007 last week, falling 35-23 at Oregon as a 7½-point road underdog. ASU has failed to cover in two straight road games, both against conference foes, dropping to 1-8 ATS in its last nine away from Tempe, Ariz.
The Bruins return home following a two-game losing skid at Washington State (27-7 as a five-point favorite) and Arizona (34-27 in a pick-em contest). The straight-up winner has covered the spread in 13 consecutive UCLA games.
UCLA has won four of the last five meetings, covering the number in each of the last four, including a 24-12 victory as a six-point road chalk last season. The road team is 6-1 SU (4-2-1 ATS) in the last seven battles.
The Bruins are on ATS runs of 17-5 at the Rose Bowl (3-1 this year) and 6-1 as an underdog (2-0 this year). They’re also 11-2 ATS following a SU loss and 9-1 ATS at home against Pac-10 foes.
The under is 10-2 in Arizona State’s last 12 games, including 3-0 on the road this year. However, seven of the last 10 series meetings have gone over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA
Arkansas (6-3, 4-3 ATS) at (22) Tennessee (6-3, 5-3-1 ATS)
A week after running all over South Carolina in a 48-36 home win, the Razorbacks head east to battle Tennessee in an SEC contest.
Led by Heisman Trophy candidate Darren McFadden (34 carries, 335 yards), Arkansas rolled up 543 rushing yards last week, easily covering as a six-point chalk. The Razorbacks have won three in a row SU and ATS, and they’re 5-1 in their last six (4-1 ATS).
Tennessee is also 5-1 in its last six games (4-0-1 ATS) following last week’s 59-7 non-conference rout of Louisiana-Lafayette as a 28-point home favorite. The Vols are 5-0 at Neyland Stadium this season (4-0-1 ATS).
Although Tennessee has won nine of the last 11 meetings, the Razorbacks have been a solid bet in this rivalry in recent years, going 6-1 ATS in the last seven clashes, including 3-0 ATS in the last three. Last year, Arkansas cruised to a 31-14 home win as a five-point favorite.
Arkansas is 7-3-1 ATS on the road since 2005, including 4-1-1 ATS as a road underdog. The Hogs are also 9-4 SU and ATS in their last 13 road games in the month of November.
The over is 6-2 in Arkansas games this year and 6-3 in Tennessee’s nine contests. However, all three Tennessee “unders” came in its last three home games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARKANSAS
(18)Auburn (7-3, 5-4 ATS) at (10)Georgia (7-2, 4-4 ATS)
Two red-hot SEC rivals clash between the hedges in Athens, Ga., where the Bulldogs host Auburn in a rivalry that’s been dominated by the road team in recent years.
Both teams come into this contest on a 6-1 SU roll following easy non-conference wins last week, as Auburn blasted Tennessee Tech 35-3 in a non-lined game, while Georgia topped Troy 44-34, failing to cover as a 14-point home favorite after giving up a TD in the final seconds. The Bulldogs are just 1-3 ATS in their last four, while Auburn is on a 5-1 ATS roll.
The visitor is 10-4-1 SU and 11-4 ATS in the last 15 series meetings. The straight-up winner has covered the number in each of the last 10 clashes, including last year when Georgia hammered the Tigers 37-15 as an 11½-point road pup.
Georgia is just 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 home games (1-2 ATS this year), while the Tigers have cashed in 11 of their last 15 games on the road, including all three this season.
Auburn is a rock-solid underdog, going 13-3 ATS in its last 16 in that role, including 7-0 since 2004 and 3-0 this year. During this stretch, the Tigers have cashed in six straight games as a road underdog, including four outright wins. Finally, the Tigers are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games against Top 10 teams.
The last two meetings have topped the total, which comes on the heels of a 4-0 “under” run in this rivalry. Also, the under is 4-1 in Auburn’s last five games overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: AUBURN
Texas A&M (6-4, 3-6 ATS) at (7)Missouri (8-1, 7-1 ATS)
Missouri continues its quest for a Big 12 North championship when it hosts a Texas A&M squad that’s struggling and whose coach is on the hot seat.
The Tigers played arguably their best game of the season last year, going to Colorado and crushing the Buffaloes 55-10 as a 3 ½-point road chalk. Missouri finished with an incredible 598-196 advantage in total offense, with star QB Chase Daniel throwing for 422 yards with 5 TDs and one INT.
Texas A&M continued its late-season swoon with a 42-14 loss at Oklahoma as a 21-point underdog, the Aggies’ third loss in their last four games. They gave up 490 yards and gained just 281.
Going back to last year, Missouri is 9-1 ATS. The Tigers are also 9-2-1 against the line in their last 12 at home.
This season, Texas A&M is just 1-3 ATS on the road and 1-4 ATS as an underdog. Overall, the Aggies are mired in a 1-4 ATS slump.
These teams met last year in College Station, Texas, with the Aggies prevailing 25-19 as a one-point home favorite.
The under is 5-0-1 in A&M’s last six contests. However, the over is 8-2 in Missouri’s last 10 lined contests and 17-8-1 in the Aggies’ last 26 road contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI and OVER
(13) Michigan (8-2, 6-3 ATS) at Wisconsin (7-3, 3-6 ATS)
Red-hot Michigan preps for next week’s showdown against rival Ohio State with a dangerous road game at Big Ten rival Wisconsin.
The Wolverines survived a scare at Michigan State last week, rallying for a 28-24 victory and barely cashing as a 3½-point road favorite. Michigan has won eight in a row since opening the season with consecutive losses, and Lloyd Carr’s squad has now covered four straight games, all in league play. For the season, the Wolverines are 6-0 in Big Ten play (5-1 ATS) and tied with Ohio State atop the standings.
Wisconsin had top-ranked Ohio State on the ropes in Columbus last Saturday, leading 17-10 late in the third quarter, before surrendering four touchdowns in the final 18 minutes to lose 38-17, failing to cover as a 16-point road underdog. Since a 5-0 start to the season, the Badgers are just 2-3 SU and ATS, including 1-3 SU and ATS against Big Ten foes.
Michigan has won seven of the last eight meetings in this rivalry, including a 27-13 triumph as a 14-point home chalk last year. However, the Badgers are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes (all as an underdog), including 4-1 ATS at home.
The Badgers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests. However, they’ve won 13 consecutive home games SU and they’re on a 15-6 spread run at Camp Randall Stadium, including 2-0 ATS in their last two.
In addition to the win at Michigan State last week, the Wolverines have played just one other road game this year, topping Illinois 27-17 as a 1½-point chalk three weeks ago. Including those two games, Michigan is on a 10-2 ATS roll on the road (5-1 ATS as a road chalk). Lloyd Carr’s squad is also 7-2 ATS the week before facing Ohio State.
Michigan star RB Mike Hart (1,188 rushing yards, 5.5 yards per carry) faces a Wisconsin defense that’s yielding 194 rushing ypg against Big Ten opponents.
The over is 8-1 in Michigan’s last nine November contests, but the under is 6-0 in the last six series meetings with Wisconsin.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN and UNDER
Florida State (6-3, 4-5 ATS) at (11) Virginia Tech (7-2, 3-4 ATS)
Florida State will try to avoid a letdown following last week’s upset win over then-undefeated Boston College when it goes out on the road again, this time to face Virginia Tech.
The Seminoles traveled to Chestnut Hill last week and dealt the second-ranked Eagles their first loss of the season, prevailing 27-17 as a seven-point underdog. Florida State has won and covered back-to-back games and is 6-2 SU (4-4 ATS) since a season-opening loss at Clemson.
Virginia Tech bounced back from a heartbreaking home loss to Boston College by blasting Georgia Tech 27-3 as a 2½-point road underdog last Thursday. The Hokies, who have won six of their last seven, forced six turnovers and finished with 210 more yards of total offense (481-271).
While the Seminoles (3-3 in conference play) are out of the picture in the ACC Atlantic Division, Virginia Tech (4-1) is a half-game back of Virginia in the Coastal Division and controls its own destiny to return to the ACC Championship game.
Hokies coach Frank Beamer is 0-7 all-time against Florida State, most recently losing to the ‘Noles 27-22 as a 14½-point favorite in the 2005 ACC title game. Florida State has cashed in each of the last three, all as an underdog. In fact, the pup is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings dating to 1990.
With last week’s upset of Boston College, the Seminoles are now on a 7-1 ATS run as an underdog.
Virginia Tech has followed an 0-5 ATS slump by covering the spread in three of its last four. However, the Hokies are 0-3-1 ATS at home and 0-4-1 ATS as a favorite in 2007.
The under is on runs of 8-2 for Virginia Tech in conference games, 10-3 for Virginia Tech on grass and 15-5 for Florida State in games played in November.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA STATE and UNDER
Texas Tech (7-3, 5-4 ATS) at (15) Texas (8-2, 4-5-1 ATS)
Fresh off a miraculous come-from-behind win at Oklahoma State, Texas comes home looking to continue its dominance of the Red Raiders in a battle of Big 12 rivals.
The Longhorns rallied from a 35-14 fourth-quarter deficit (the largest in school history) to sneak past Oklahoma State 38-35, getting the winning points on a 40-yard field goal as time expired. The game featured 1,179 total yards, with 306 of Texas’ 589 yards coming on the ground. The Longhorns have pulled off three straight comeback wins by outscoring their last three foes 57-11 in the fourth quarter.
Texas pushed as a three-point road favorite last week and is now just 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 conference games.
The Red Raiders rebounded from consecutive Big 12 losses to Missouri and Colorado with a resounding 38-7 rout of Baylor, covering as a 20½-point road favorite. Texas Tech had a 563-282 edge in total offense.
Texas Tech will be looking to snap an eight-game losing skid (3-5 ATS) to the Longhorns. Last year, the Red Raiders fell 35-31 at home, getting the cash as a 10-point underdog. The pup is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
The Red Raiders are 6-13 ATS on the road since 2004, but 3-2 ATS on the highway this year.
Texas, which surrendered 427 passing yards last week, figures to have its hands full with Red Raiders QB Graham Harrell, who last week went over the 4,000-yard passing mark for the second straight year. Harrell completes 73.5 percent of his passes for an average of 441 yards per game with 38 TDs and 11 INTs.
The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings. However, Texas Tech has stayed under the total in five straight games, with all five totals being set at 60 points or higher.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(5) Kansas (9-0, 8-0 ATS) at Oklahoma State (5-4, 4-3-1 ATS)
Kansas’ storybook season continues this week at Oklahoma State, where the Jayhawks figure to face a much stiffer test than they did a week ago when they routed Nebraska 76-39 at home.
The Jayhawks had a 48-24 lead by halftime last week and cruised from there, finishing with the most points any team has ever scored against Nebraska. Kansas had 572 yards of total offense, including 218 on the ground and 354 through the air, while the defense forced five turnovers.
Oklahoma State is probably still reeling from last week’s stunning 38-35 home loss to Texas, as the Cowboys squandered a 35-14 lead by giving up 24 fourth-quarter points, They lost at home for the first time all season despite finishing with 590 total yards, forcing three turnovers and holding the ball for more than 35 of the 60 minutes.
The Cowboys own a five-game winning streak against Kansas, and they’re 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings. Last year, OSU went to Lawrence, Kan., and dealt the Jayhawks a 42-32 loss as a 2½-point road underdog.
Kansas is perfect in three road games SU and ATS, all coming against Big 12 rivals. However, all three were tight contests, with the Jayhawks winning 30-24 at Kansas State, 19-14 at Colorado and 19-11 at Texas A&M.
Not only are the Jayhawks perfect against the spread this season, but they’re 11-1 ATS going back to the end of 2006. On the downside, Mark Mangino’s squad is 3-19 ATS in its last 22 November road games.
The Cowboys are on ATS runs of 10-3-2 in home finales and 11-2-2 in November games in Stillwater, Okla.
The over is 22-7 in Oklahoma State’s last 29 home games (3-1 this year) and 15-5 in its last 10 December contests. However, Kansas has stayed well under the total in all three of its road games in 2007.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(17) Florida (6-3, 5-3 ATS) at South Carolina (6-4, 4-4 ATS)
The third annual Steve Spurrier Bowl is set for Columbia, S.C., where the Ol’ Ball Coach leads his slumping Gamecocks against the Florida school he once guided back to national prominence.
Florida bounced back from an ugly 12-point loss to Georgia and walloped Vanderbilt last week 49-22, easily covering as a 15-point home favorite. The Gators are just 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five games.
South Carolina carries a three-game SU and a four-game ATS losing skid into this game. Last week at Arkansas, the Gamecocks got run over 48-36 as a six-point road underdog, allowing a whopping 543 rushing yards on 58 carries (9.4 yards per rush). Overall, they got outgained 651-489.
Since taking over at South Carolina, coach Steve Spurrier has played his former employer tough, winning 30-22 as a 4½-point home underdog in 2005 and losing 17-16 as a 13-point road underdog last year as Florida blocked a game-winning 48-yard field-goal attempt to preserve its national title hopes. The Gamecocks are 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, and the home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight.
The Gators have been terrible in the role of road chalk under Urban Meyer, going 2-10 ATS since the start of the 2005 campaign.
South Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 against winning teams.
Florida has topped the total in four straight games and eight of its last 10 lined contests going back to last year’s SEC Championship game. Also, the over is 22-8 in South Carolina’s last 30 home games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA and OVER
(12) Southern Cal (7-2, 4-5 ATS) at (24) California (6-3, 3-6 ATS)
Southern Cal faces another difficult road test when it heads up the California coast to take on the Golden Bears in a Pac-10 tussle.
The last time the Trojans hit the highway, they suffered a 24-17 loss at Oregon as a three-point underdog. They bounced back from that setback last week, pummeling Oregon State 24-3 and cashing as a 15-point home chalk. USC’s top-flight defense has held its last three opponents to a combined 40 points.
Cal snapped a three-game losing skid last Saturday, but it wasn’t easy, as the Bears outlasted Washington State 20-17. However, they failed to cash as a 14½-point home favorite, their fourth consecutive ATS setback.
Cal has scored at least 20 points in 11 consecutive games and 20 of its last 21. The lone exception came in a 23-9 loss at USC last year, as the Bears got outscored 17-0 in the second half and were limited to 275 total yards, failing to cash as a 5½-point underdog.
The Trojans have defeated Cal three straight times, covering the spread in the last two. Previously, the Bears had been on a 6-1 ATS roll in this rivalry, all as an underdog.
With the loss at Oregon two weeks ago, the Trojans dropped to 3-10 ATS in their last 13 conference road games, including 1-6 ATS since the start of last year (0-2 this year). On the positive side, coach Pete Carroll is now 21-0 SU in November since coming to USC, and the Trojans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine November road contests.
The Trojans have stayed under the total in seven straight games, and Cal has done so in its last three. Also, the under is 3-0 in the last three series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
College Football Weather Forecast
Saturday, November 10th
Indiana at Northwestern, 12:00 p.m.
Mostly Cloudy Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.
Michigan State at Purdue, 12:00 p.m.
Mostly Sunny Mostly sunny. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.
Virginia at Miami-Florida, 7:15 p.m.
Clear Clear. Winds blowing from the North at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.
Wake Forest at Clemson, 12:00 p.m.
Sunny Sunny. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.
Penn State at Temple, 12:00 p.m.
Mostly Cloudy Mostly cloudy with a 60-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the North at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 45.
Georgia Tech at Duke, 1:00 p.m.
Sunny Sunny. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.
Kentucky at Vanderbilt, 2:00 p.m.
Mostly Sunny Mostly sunny. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.
Connecticut at Cincinnati, 3:30 p.m.
Sunny Sunny. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 55.
Colorado at Iowa State, 12:30 p.m.
Mostly Cloudy Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southeast at 10-20 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.
Air Force at Notre Dame, 2:30 p.m.
Partly Cloudy Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.
Colorado State at New Mexico, 3:00 p.m.
Partly Cloudy Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 70.
Houston at Tulsa, 3:00 p.m.
Partly Cloudy Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southeast at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.
Rice at S-M-U, 3:00 p.m.
Partly Cloudy Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the South at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.
Boise State at Utah State, 3:05 p.m.
Partly Cloudy Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 55.
Wyoming at Utah, 3:30 p.m.
Partly Cloudy Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 55.
Arizona State at U-C-L-A, 3:30 p.m.
Partly Cloudy Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 65.
Alabama at Mississippi State, 12:30 p.m.
Partly Cloudy Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the West at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 70.
Arkansas at Tennessee, 12:30 p.m.
Sunny Sunny. Winds blowing from the North at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.
Auburn at Georgia, 3:30 p.m.
Sunny Sunny. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 65.
Stanford at Washington State, 6:30 p.m.
Mostly Cloudy Mostly cloudy with a 70-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 10-20 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 45.
Kansas State at Nebraska, 12:30 p.m.
Mostly Cloudy Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southeast at 10-20 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.
Minnesota at Iowa, 12:00 p.m.
Mostly Cloudy Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southeast at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.
Texas A&M at Missouri, 12:30 p.m.
Partly Cloudy Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southeast at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.
Michigan at Wisconsin, 12:00 p.m.
Mostly Cloudy Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 45.
Illinois at Ohio State, 3:30 p.m.
Partly Cloudy Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.
Florida State at Virginia Tech, 3:30 p.m.
Mostly Sunny Mostly sunny. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.
New Mexico State at San Jose State, 4:00 p.m.
Mostly Cloudy Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 65.
Kent State at Northern Illinois, 4:00 p.m.
Mostly Cloudy Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.
East Carolina at Marshall, 4:30 p.m.
Partly Cloudy Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.
Memphis at Southern Mississippi, 4:30 p.m.
Mostly Sunny Mostly sunny. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.
Boston College at Maryland, 8:00 p.m.
Mostly Cloudy Mostly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the North at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 45.
Texas Tech at Texas, 3:30 p.m.
Partly Cloudy Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the South at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.
Baylor at Oklahoma, 6:30 p.m.
Mostly Cloudy Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the South at 10-20 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 70.
North Carolina at NC State, 12:00 p.m.
Sunny Sunny. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.
Kansas at Oklahoma State, 8:00 p.m.
Mostly Cloudy Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the South at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 70.
Florida at South Carolina, 7:45 p.m.
Clear Clear. Winds blowing from the North at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.
U-C-F at U-A-B, 7:30 p.m.
Mostly Clear Mostly clear. Winds blowing from the East at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.
Louisiana Tech at L-S-U, 8:00 p.m.
Mostly Cloudy Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 65.
U-S-C at California, 8:00 p.m.
Mostly Cloudy Mostly cloudy with a 70-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.
Washington at Oregon State, 10:15 p.m.
Mostly Cloudy Mostly cloudy with a 50-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 45.
San Diego State at U-N-L-V, 11:00 p.m.
Clear Clear. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.
Fresno State at Hawaii, 11:05 p.m.
Clear Clear. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.
UL-Lafayette at Mid Tennessee State, 3:30 p.m.
Mostly Sunny Mostly sunny. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.
Navy at North Texas, 4:00 p.m.
Partly Cloudy Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the South at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.
Arkansas State at Florida Atlantic, 4:00 p.m.
Sunny Sunny. Winds blowing from the North at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.
Today's college football weather report
COVERS.com
Weather watch
Berkeley
Fans attending USC-California may want to exchange their t-shirts and shorts for slickers and galoshes with tropical moisture flowing into the Golden State.
There is a 70 percent chance of rain in Berkeley with light winds gusting from the south at seven mph. The conditions could adversely affect the Golden Bears’ ground attack, which averages more than 160 rushing yards per game this season. With wet conditions in the forecast, the total has dropped from 51 to 50 ½ points since Thursday.
Corvallis
Wet conditions could also have an impact on the Washington-Oregon State matchup. There is an 80 percent chance of rain in Corvallis with winds gusting from the south at 15 mph, which favors the Huskies' stout ground game.
The Huskies are compiling more than 190 rushing yards per outing with 18 touchdowns. Bettors are taking notice of the wet conditions, causing the line to move from Beavers -5 ½ to -5 since Thursday.
Pullman
Winds gusting from the southwest at 17 mph could influence the outcome of the Stanford-Washington State matchup. There is also an 80 percent chance of rain in Pullman that favors the Cougars' ground assault, which averages more than 200 rushing yards per contest this season.
With strong winds and heavy rain in the forecast the line has moved from Cougars -10 to -11 and the total has also dropped from 51 ½ to 51 points since Thursday.
Wind Warning
Kansas State at Nebraska
Winds are expected to gust to 20 mph in Lincoln this afternoon that could hamper both teams' dangerous aerial attacks. The line has moved between Cornhuskers +7 ½ to +7 and the total has dropped from 65 points to 64 ½ points since Friday.
Baylor at Oklahoma
Winds are expected to gust to 20 mph with the temperature falling to a cool 48 degrees in Norman. That favors the No. 4 Sooners’ ninth-ranked defense, causing the line to move from Sooners -37 ½ to -38. The total is unchanged at 56 ½ points.