SATURDAY FOOTBALL NEWS AND NOTES

College football top 25 cheat sheet: Week 14
By MATT SEVERANCE

Texas A&M at Texas (-35.5)

Why Aggies cover: They have shocked the Longhorns in each of the past two seasons and this is their bowl game. Colt McCoy is just 34-for-60 for 389 yards, one touchdown and four picks in two games against A&M. The last 10 times this game was played on Thanksgiving, A&M won nine of them.

Why Longhorns cover: The bigger the pummeling of A&M the better to impress the poll voters and BCS computers. The Aggies’ defense is awful, ranking 100th or worse in five defensive categories: total defense (111), rushing defense (111), scoring defense (110), sacks (102) and pass efficiency defense (100).

Total (68.5): The over is 8-1 in A&M’s past nine Big 12 games.

Fresno State at Boise State (-21)

Why Bulldogs cover: In a way, Boise State has nothing to play for other than to stay unbeaten. It already has won the WAC and it really can’t improve its BCS stock much. Fresno State is 5-1 on the road this year. The Bulldogs average 5.0 yards per carry good for second in the WAC. They have allowed -14 total rushing yards the past two weeks.

Why Broncos cover: BSU has gone over 40 points for four straight games. The Broncos have won their three home meetings with Fresno by an average of 29 points. The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings.

Total (56): The under is 4-1 in the past five meetings.

West Virginia at Pittsburgh (+3.5)

Why Mountaineers cover: Pitt is just 1-6 ATS in its past seven home games. WVU will be thinking about major payback after last year’s upset to the Panthers cost it a spot in the national title game. WVU must win this week and next (and have Cincinnati lose on Saturday) to have any shot at winning the Big East this year.

Why Panthers cover: After getting torched in 2005 and 2006, Pitt held WVU quarterback Pat White to 41 yards on 14 carries last season. The Panthers might be sky high after learning LeSean McCoy plans to return next season – he had 148 yards last season vs. WVU.

Total (48.5): The over is 4-0 in WVU’s past four games.

Auburn at Alabama (-14.5)

Why Tigers cover: They have won six in a row in this series. The Tide are 0-4 ATS in their past four following a bye week. Auburn must win to become bowl eligible and perhaps to save Tommy Tuberville’s job. The Tigers may have found a new threat in RB Mario Fannin.

Why Crimson Tide cover: Auburn is 0-4 ATS in its past four road games and 1-8 ATS in its past nine overall. The Tigers have converted only 57 percent of their red-zone possessions into scores. Auburn has failed to score even a field goal in 15 of its 35 opportunities inside opponents' 20-yard line. That won’t cut it against a defense that has allowed 10 points or fewer in three of the past four games.

Total (40.5): The under is 7-2 in the past nine meetings.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (+7)

Why Sooners cover: The bigger the win the better the boost in BCS points. Look at these obscene offensive numbers: The Sooners have topped 60 points in each of their last three games and averaged 59 points and 598 yards. OU is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their past five road games.

Why Cowboys cover: They had a week off to prepare and top RB Kendall Hunter, the Big 12’s leading rusher, is healthy again after getting nicked up vs. Colorado. The Cowboys have dropped their last two to OU in Stillwater by a combined total of nine points. OSU’s offense won’t have to deal with Sooners DE Auston English, the preseason Big 12 defensive player of the year, who won’t play again this week due to injury. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six.

Total (72): The over is 7-0 in the Sooners’ past seven Big 12 games.

Florida at Florida State (+16.5)

Why Gators cover: Because they have by far the best two players on the field in Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin. UF has won the last four in the series by an average of 18.5 points. UF is No. 1 in the country in turnover margin, and the FSU offense has had a few turnover-heavy games this year. Florida has the nation’s third highest-scoring defense.

Why Seminoles cover: They enter off probably their best game of the season, a rout of Maryland. The Gators are just 1-5 ATS in their past six visits to Tallahassee. This is FSU’s best running team in years, which may help keep the explosive UF offense off the field. The home team is 11-3 ATS in the past 14 meetings.

Total (57.5): The under is 4-0 in the past four meetings.

Notre Dame at Southern Cal (-32)

Why Irish cover: Maybe Charlie Weis gives a Gipper-esque speech. A win or at least close game here could earn him another season. Notre Dame is 6-2 ATS in its past eight road games. Jimmy Clausen needs a career night to keep this close.

Why Trojans cover: Have you seen Notre Dame lately? The Trojans have won six in a row in this series while averaging 41 points in those games. Last year’s 38-0 USC win was the most lopsided in the series. USC’s defense has allowed 46 total points in the past seven games. And by the way, Notre Dame just lost to Syracuse.

Total (47.5): The under is 10-1 in ND’s last 11 road games.

Baylor at Texas Tech (-22)

Why Bears cover: The road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. Coach Art Briles is very familiar with the TTU program as a former player and coach there. Baylor’s offense, under QB Robert Griffin, can score some points. The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their past four games..

Why Red Raiders cover: They aren’t out of anything yet, so they won’t let off the pedal. Baylor is winless on the road this season. TTU is 8-1 ATS in the past nine meetings. Baylor has lost 12 straight in this series and 10 road conference games in a row. Graham Harrell will pad his Heisman stats.

Total (71): The over is 5-0 in TTU’s past five games.

Georgia Tech at Georgia (-8)

Why Yellow Jackets cover: While Georgia has owned this series, the Dawgs haven’t seen the triple-option. Tech is coming off its best game of the season, rushing for 472 yards against Miami. The Jackets are fourth in the nation in rushing offense at 270.8 yards, while Georgia has allowed an average of 167.4 on the ground in its past five games. Georgia is 0-4 ATS in its past four home games.

Why Bulldogs cover: Georgia Tech might be more focused on the scoreboard: The Virginia-Virginia Tech game is being played at same time, and a Hokies loss sends Tech to the ACC title game. The Bulldogs have won seven in a row in the series and had an extra week to prepare for the triple-option. Georgia is 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven meetings.

Total (48.5): The under is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in Athens.

Kansas at Missouri (-16)

Why Jayhawks cover: Missouri has nothing to play for here. The Tigers are in the Big 12 title game regardless and will only earn a BCS bowl berth with a win there. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. QB Todd Reesing gets to see a pass defense in the bottom 10 of Division I.

Why Tigers cover: Chase Daniel has thrown seven TD passes and no INTs in the Tigers’ last two games against Kansas. Star tight end Chase Coffman is expected to return from a two-game absence. Other than a 3-point loss to South Florida, Kansas hasn’t really been close against ranked teams this year.

Total (68.5): The over is 4-1 in KU’s past five Big 12 games.

Syracuse at Cincinnati (-22)

Why Orange cover: It’s coach Greg Robinson’s final game, so that may get his players fired up. And the Orange do enter off an upset of Notre Dame (if that’s even an upset anymore). Cincy is without top cornerback Mike Mickens who’s out with an injury. The underdog is 4-1-1 in the past six meetings.

Why Bearcats cover: They have every reason to be focused: A win gets UC the Big East title. QB Tony Pike is rolling, winning six of his seven starts with 14 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. UC has averaged 30.0 points at home this season, holding three of its five opponents to 10 or fewer.

Total (49.5): The under is 4-1 in the past five meetings.

Oregon at Oregon State (-3)

Why Ducks cover: By far the biggest reason would be that OSU star freshman RB Jacquizz Rodgers is “very doubtful” with an injury. Rodgers leads the Pac-10 in rushing. Oregon is actually a better rushing team than OSU, ranking sixth in the country with 268.1 yards per game on the ground. Wouldn’t the Ducks just love to ruin OSU’s Rose Bowl chances in the Civil War?

Why Beavers cover: Because it’s for the program’s first Rose Bowl in more than four decades! Jacquizz Rodgers has been begging coach Mike Riley to play, and with more than a month off following this game, maybe Riley relents. Quarterback Lyle Moevao is back from his injury but may or may not start. The Ducks are 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings in Corvallis.

Total (60): The over is 6-0 in the past six meetings.

Maryland at Boston College (-6.5)

Why Terrapins cover: They see a redshirt freshman making his first career start in BC’s Dominique Davis. Maryland is 4-0 against ranked teams this season and bounced back from each of its three previous losses to beat a ranked foe the following week. Boston College is 2-6 ATS in its past eight ACC games. QB Chris Turner torched BC last year for 337 yards and three TDs.

Why Eagles cover: Defense! BC is tied for the Division I lead (with USC) with three shutouts this season. The Eagles rank among the I-A leaders in interceptions (first - 23), turnovers gained (second - 31), pass efficiency defense (fourth), total defense (fifth - 269.6 ypg) and rushing defense (seventh - 95.8 ypg). Maryland is 1-4 ATS in its past five road games. Most important: A win gets BC the ACC title.

Total (41.5): The under is 8-1 in the Terps’ past nine ACC games.

Oregon at Oregon State
By Brad Young

The annual Civil War matchup between Oregon and Oregon State has increased stakes this season. The Beavers are gunning for their first Rose Bowl berth since 1965, and can advance to Pasadena on New Year’s Day with a victory in this spot.

However Oregon State star running back Jacquizz Rodgers is ‘doubtful’ for this contest due to a separated shoulder, while quarterback Lyle Moevao (shoulder) is ‘questionable.’ The Beavers started the year with road losses to Stanford and Penn State, but are in position to claim at least a share of the Pac-10 crown compliments of their current six-game winning streak.

Without its star running back in the mix, look for Oregon State to air it out against an Oregon defense that ranks 102nd in the nation in pass defense. The Ducks surrendered a combined 829 yards in earlier losses to Boise State and Southern Cal, and yielded 328 yards passing in last week’s victory over Arizona.

Meanwhile, Oregon is powered behind the nation’s sixth-ranked rushing offense that accumulates an average of 268.1 yards per game. The Ducks pound the ball behind the running-back duo of Jeremiah Johnson (6.2 yards per carry) and Legarrette Blount (7.2 yards per carry).

Caesars Palace installed Oregon State as a three-point home ‘chalk’ over Oregon, with the total set at 60. Versus will provide coverage of the Civil War beginning Saturday at 7:00 p.m. ET from Reser Stadium.

Oregon (8-3 straight up, 5-6 against the spread) has won back-to-back games after outlasting Arizona November 15 as a six-point home favorite, 55-45. The combined 100 points soared ‘over’ the 60 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ improve to 3-1 the past four outings.

The Ducks jumped out to a 45-17 halftime advantage, but had to hold onto the victory after surrendering 21 points in the fourth quarter. Oregon recorded 504 yards of total offense and forced three Arizona turnovers, but was on the short end of time of possession (41:46-18:14).

Signal caller Jeremiah Masoli was 21-of-26 passing for 298 yards with two touchdowns, while rushing 10 times for 89 yards and three scores. Wide receiver Terence Scott contributed in the offensive explosion by catching six passes for 87 yards with a touchdown.

Oregon State (8-3 SU and ATS) continued its winning ways by slipping past Arizona last weekend as a three-point road underdog, 19-17. The combined 36 points never seriously threatened the 56-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 4-2 the past six games.

The Beavers prevailed when Justin Kahut connected on a 24-yard field goal as time expired. Oregon State finished the game with advantages in rushing yards (166-139) and passing yards (224-158).

Quarterback Sean Canfield was 20-of-32 passing for 224 yards with a touchdown. Wideout James Rodgers stepped up with 10 carries for 102 yards and a score, while catching two passes for nine yards. Wide receiver Sammie Stroughter contributed in the victory with five receptions for 116 yards and a score.

Oregon State is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS the previous four meetings with Oregon, while the ‘over’ has cashed each time. The Beavers upended the Ducks last year in overtime as a one-point road underdog, 38-31, while the combined 69 points eclipsed the 42-point closing total.

The Ducks have gone 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS this season on the road, with the ‘under’ going 3-1. The Beavers sport a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS home ledger.

Oregon wide receiver Drew Davis (knee) is ‘out’ for the rest of the season. The Ducks are reporting no players as ‘probable,’ ‘questionable’ or ‘doubtful’ versus the Beavers.

Saturday’s forecast for Corvallis, Oregon calls for mostly cloudy skies and a 10 percent chance of rain, with a high of 56 degrees and a low of 39.

**PAC-10 EXTRAS**

**UCLA at Arizona State**

-Caesars Palace opened Arizona State as a 10-point home favorite over UCLA, with the total set at 46 ½. ESPN2 will provide coverage of this contest Friday at 9:30 p.m. ET. The loser of this contest is eliminated from bowl contention.

-UCLA (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) ended a two-game skid SU and ATS by beating Washington Nov. 15 as a 6 ½-point road ‘chalk,’ 27-7. The combined 34 points failed to topple the 45-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 3-1 the past four games.

-Arizona State (4-6 SU, 3-5 ATS) has rebounded from a six-game losing streak to win its last two games. The Sun Devils blanked Washington State Nov. 15 as a 36-point home ‘chalk,’ 31-0. Arizona State had covered back-to-back outings before failing to cover against the Cougars.

UCLA and Arizona State have split the last four meetings SU, while the Bruins have covered each time. The Sun Devils beat the Bruins last season as a seven-point road underdog, 24-20.

-UCLA defensive end Korey Bosworth (back), linebacker Chase Moline (back) and defensive lineman Brian Price (hamstring) are ‘probable’ versus the Sun Devils, while offensive guard Sonny Tevaga (personal) is ‘questionable.’

-Arizona State defensive back Clint Floyd (kidney) and defensive tackle David Smith (stinger) are ‘questionable’ against the Bruins.

**Notre Dame at Southern Cal**

-Caesars Palace lists Southern Cal as a decided 32-point home ‘chalk’ over Notre Dame, with no total posted. ABC Sports will provide coverage of this contest Saturday starting at 8:00 p.m. ET.

-Notre Dame (6-5 SU and ATS) dropped to 1-3 SU and ATS the past four games after getting upset by Syracuse last weekend as a 20-point home favorite, 24-23. The combined 47 points slithered ‘under’ the 47 1/2-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the third consecutive contest.

-Southern Cal (9-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) throttled Stanford Nov. 15 as a 24-point road favorite, 45-23. That marked the second game in a row that the Trojans failed to cover.

-USC has won the last four games against Notre Dame SU, while going 3-1 ATS. The Trojans blanked the Fighting Irish last year as a 17-point road ‘chalk,’ 38-0.

-Notre Dame cornerback Terrail Lambert (ankle) is ‘probable’ against the Trojans, while offensive guard Chris Stewart (knee) is ‘questionable’ and wide receiver George West (knee) is ‘doubtful.’

-USC strong safety Kevin Ellison (knee) is ‘questionable’ versus the Fighting Irish, while running back Broderick Green (bronchitis) is ‘doubtful.’

vegasinsider.com.

College four-play: Week 14 predictions
By JON CAMPBELL

A few short years ago I actually stood in my living room and watched as Notre Dame and USC slugged it out on a hay field in South Bend.

I stood because I couldn’t bear to sit. The excitement had bolted me off the couch in a game that came down to the famous illegal push from Reggie Bush that thrust Matt Leinart into the end zone for the winning score with just three seconds left.

Both teams racked up over 400 yards of offense in a battle of great plays and offensive execution. I’d call it my second-favorite game I’ve watched over the past eight years. Only the 2007 Fiesta Bowl between Boise State and Oklahoma beats it.

But where are we now?

The Irish are up to 32-point underdogs and rising this week for their matchup with the Trojans. And it’s hard not to love USC here considering the Domers lost to an eight-loss team for the first time in their history on Saturday and were pelted by snowballs from fellow students.

It’s pathetic. Kind of like my record recently.

For the fourth straight week I went 1-3 and many of you are starting to pack the snow in your hands. Fortunately, I was so un-Notre Damey to start the season, I’m still above .500 at 24-22-2. But much like the Irish, if you haven’ t started fading me by now, that’s your problem.

By the way, pick No. 1 for this week: USC

UCLA vs. Arizona State (-10, 45)

Much maligned Bruins QB Kevin Craft got a little boost from Dad this week and it looks like it might help.

On Wednesday, the L.A. Daily News wrote a story in which Tom Craft criticizes UCLA coaches Rick Neuheisel and Norm Chow for the way his son has been treated this year while throwing seven touchdowns against 15 interceptions.

On Thursday, Neuheisel was in more of a Thanksgiving mood.

"Much has been said about my antics on the sideline, but I wonder where we'd be without him," Neuheisel told the L.A. Times.

I think the confidence boost might help on Friday but more importantly, Arizona State is in a bad spot. The struggling Sunny Ds finally strung two wins together this season and then they ran into a bye week last Saturday just as the momentum was building. A double-digit spread might be a little ambitious with the big rivalry game against Arizona coming up next week.

Pick: UCLA

Washington State vs. Hawaii (-28, 55)

Hawaii coach Greg McMackin is trying his best to come up with ways to convince his team it shouldn’t overlook Washington State this week.

"The Pac-10 is up here," McMackin told reporters, raising his arm. "And the WAC is down here."

Yeah, but coach, you’ll need to grab a shovel and start digging to show where Wazzou is this season. The Cougs are scoring 6.6 points per game on the road this year and let’s face it, they’re in luau mode this week.

Pick: Hawaii

Oregon vs. Oregon State (-3, 60)

Can the Beavs win without Jacquizz? No whizz.

Duckies win fo shiz.

Pick: Oregon

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State
By Judd Hall

It seems that three weeks is the standing order for dominance in the Big XII South right now.

Texas set that standard by beating the Sooners, Tigers and Cowboys in successive weeks. Then the Longhorns fell in the final seconds to Texas Tech on Nov. 1.

The Red Raiders got their moment in the sun by beating the aforementioned ‘Horns, then demolishing the Cowboys before getting a week off to face the Sooners.

Oklahoma ripped that spotlight from Mike Leach’s hands by routing the Red Raiders as a seven-point home “chalk,” 65-21, last Saturday. The score isn’t really indicative of how dominant the Sooners were in this matchup of what was supposed to be the best game of the season.

The big matchup of that contest was the Sooners’ offense going up against a much improved Texas Tech defense. It turns out that that was a short war with OU rolling up 625 yards on the Red Raiders. Sam Bradford accounted for 304 of those yards by completing just 14 of 19 passes for four touchdowns. The rest of the damage came via the ground as DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown combined for 233 yards and five scores.

Oklahoma’s defense made the high-octane Red Raider offense look like a Yugo last Saturday as well. The Sooners gave up just 406 yards to an attack that is averaging 551.7 YPG this season. OU was even able to sack Graham Harrell four times when he’d been sacked five times in the first 10 games of the year. The constant pressure on the line, along with the shutdown coverage the secondary had on Eric Morris and Michael Crabtree, directly contributed to Texas Tech converting just once out of its 13 third downs.

The Sooners were also able to take the ball way from Texas Tech three times, which were promptly turned into 14 points.

Now Bob Stoops will try to buck that three-week trend in a prime letdown spot this Saturday against in-state rival Oklahoma State.

Mike Gundy’s Cowboys are coming off of a 30-13 victory over Colorado as 17½-point road favorites. While Oklahoma State failed to cover the line, they really dominated this matchup by racking up a 20-3 advantage in the third quarter.

Zac Robinson once again paced Oklahoma State on offense by connecting on 15 of his 23 passes for 217 yards and one touchdown. He also showed you have to keep on your toes when defending him on the ground has rushed 15 times for 61 yards and another score.

As good as Robinson played, you can’t just focus on him alone. If you do that, then wide receiver Dez Bryant will sure make you pay when he gets the ball. Colorado found that out the hard way when he snared four passes for 82 yards and a touchdown. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Bryant is fourth in the nation with 111.1 receiving YPG.

Oklahoma State can also has another weapon in its backfield with Kendall Hunter, who ranks fifth in the country by gaining 130.4 rushing YPG in 2008. Hunter was able to gain 102 yards and a touchdown via 11 carries against the Buffs on Nov. 15.

What could throw a monkey wrench in the Cowboys’ quest for the upset is their defense. They are 76th in the nation by giving up 377.3 YPG this season. Yet Oklahoma State is able to get the ball away from the opposition with a plus-seven turnover margin. The only problem is that the Sooners are tied with the Chippewas for the fewest turnovers, coughing up the ball just nine times this season.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants has opened the line on this matchup with the Sooners as seven-point road favorites with a total of 69. Bettors can back the ‘Pokes to pull off the upset for a plus 220 return (risk $100 to win $220).

This is the most lopsided in-state rivalry in the country as Oklahoma is 78-17-7 straight up against the Cowboys all time. As one-sided as this rivalry is, the Cowboys are a tough out in their home stadium for OU, losing by an average of 4.6 points in the last three losses to the Sooners in Stillwater.

One thing bettors should know is Oklahoma State is not a bad home ‘dog to back this week. That’s because the ‘Pokes are 7-13 SU when installed as a pup at home, but are 12-8 ATS in those 20 matches. We should also expect a high scoring tilt as well with the ‘over’ going 12-6 for the Cowboys when in this situation.

We shouldn’t discount the Sooners away from Norman though. Oklahoma has gone 33-5 SU and 20-17-1 ATS when made a road favorite since Stoops took over the program in 1999. However, OU is 1-12 ATS when playing as a road “chalk” following consecutive SU wins when taking on a program that is coming off of a double-digit victory…which comes into play for the Cowboys.

The Sooners must dominate this matchup from start to finish to have a chance at winning the Big XII South. That’s because a win will cause a three-way tie for the division lead between Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma. The tiebreaker between them will be BCS rankings and that would go to the Longhorns lead the Sooners by .009 points. A loss by OU will allow the Red Raiders to back into the conference title game, provided they beat Baylor.

ABC will televise this battle starting at 8:00 p.m. EST.

vegasinsider.com

Florida at FSU
By Brian Edwards

During Bobby Bowden’s 33-year tenure at Florida State, the Seminoles have only been double-digit home underdogs once before. Until this week, that is.

Back in 1976, Bowden’s first year on the job, the Gators went into Tallahassee and won 33-26, but they failed to cover the number as 11½-point road favorites. The ‘Noles haven’t been double-digit home underdogs since then. Until this week, that is.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Florida (10-1 straight up, 8-2 against the spread) as a 14-point favorite with a total of 56. As of Friday afternoon, most books had the Gators as 16½-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 55. The ‘Noles are plus-550 on the money line (risk $100 to win $550).

Urban Meyer’s team has been on fire since suffering its lone defeat of the season, a 31-30 home loss to Ole Miss. The Gators have won seven in a row and cashed tickets in all six of their lined games.

They are off a 70-19 win over The Citadel in a non-lined affair. Tim Tebow completed 9-of-11 passes for 201 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions on a short day of work. Chris Rainey and Emmanuel Moody rushed for 142 and 116 yards, respectively, and both ran for one touchdown apiece.

During its current seven-game winning streak, Florida has scored at least 42 points in every game. The Gators have won by at least 28 points in every contest. In their last six outings, they have outscored foes 101-0 in the first quarter.

If Florida State (8-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) is going to have any chance at pulling a stunner, it can’t fall behind early like that. The Seminoles are coming off one of their best performances of the season, trouncing Maryland 37-3 as two-point road favorites.

Sophomore quarterback Christian Ponder was the catalyst, connecting on 19-of-24 throws for 143 yards and one TD without an interception. Ponder also had 81 rushing yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. Preston Parker had six receptions for 85 yards and a TD, while Antone Smith had his 15th rushing TD of the season.

Smith has 696 rushing yards and is averaging 4.7 yards per carry, but his production has waned in recent weeks, partly due to a couple of nagging injuries. He has been limited to 49 carries in the last five games and hasn’t produced a 100-yard effort since a 39-21 win over Colorado back on Sep. 27. Most disconcerting to the garnet and gold faithful is Smith’s 20 total rushing yards in three previous games against the Gators.

Ponder appears to be steadily improving but his season numbers leave plenty to be desired. He has completed 56.4 percent of his throws for 1,747 yards with a 12/11 touchdown-interception ratio.

Greg Carr and Preston Parker are Ponder’s two favorite targets, but they have combined for just five touchdown catches in 2008. The young QB can also make plays with his scrambling, as evidenced by his 390 rushing yards and four TDs. When tucking it and running against UF, Ponder had better make ball security a focal point.

UF’s offense gets most of the accolades, and deservingly so, but this team also has one of the country’s premier defenses. That unit leads the SEC in scoring defense, allowing just 12.0 points per game.

Junior linebacker Brandon Spikes, who is a given to be a first-team All-American selection in the coming weeks, is the Gators’ defensive leader. Spikes is ninth in the SEC in tackles with a team-high 74. He also has two sacks and a pair of interceptions returned for touchdowns (in wins over LSU and South Carolina).

The Gators are first in the SEC and third in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 46.5 PPG. Tebow hasn’t matched his Heisman numbers of 2007, but he maintains a remarkable 22/2 TD-INT ratio.

He has weapons galore, but Percy Harvin is his go-to guy. Harvin blistered the ‘Noles in last year’s 45-12 UF win, rushing for 157 yards and one touchdown on 16 carries, in addition to five catches for 67 yards. Tebow had three TD passes and two TDs rushing against FSU last season.

Bobby Bowden and Mickey Andrews have a defense that’s vastly improved from last year. The unit ranks seventh in the nation in total defense, allowing just 272.6 yards per game. Junior DE Everette Brown has been dominant recently, recording 3½ sacks and a forced fumble against the Terrapins.

If there’s a game in the history of this rivalry that sets up similar to this one, it would be the (first) meeting in 1996. The Gators came into that game undefeated and clicking on all cylinders. Of course, FSU was also unbeaten and not nearly as big of an underdog as this time around.

But here’s the common denominator: FSU’s only hope was getting relentless pressure on the quarterback (Danny Wuerffel in that case) and winning the special-teams battle. In ’96, a blocked punt in the first quarter led to a short touchdown drive and by the end of the day, DEs Peter Boulware and Reinard Wilson had left Wuerffel battered and bruised in a 24-21 FSU victory.

In UF’s only loss this season to Ole Miss, Greg Hardy spent all day in Tebow’s face. The ‘Noles need a similar effort out of Brown, who leads the nation in tackles for loss (20½) and is second in sacks with 12½.

And FSU has to win the turnover battle. The ‘Noles did just that in College Park last week, producing six sacks, two interceptions and two forced fumbles.

Florida has won four in a row over the ‘Noles by an average margin of 18.5 points. After winning 17-13 at Doak Campbell Stadium in 1986 thanks to Kerwin Bell’s game-winning TD pass to Ricky Nattiel in a driving rainstorm, the Gators went winless in Tallahassee until 2004.

On that night, FSU named the field after Bowden, but Ron Zook was carried off victoriously in his last game as head coach at UF. In Meyer’s only trip to Doak Campbell, the Gators won 21-14 but the ‘Noles produced a backdoor cover as nine-point underdogs.

FSU hasn’t tasted a victory over Florida since 2003 in the infamous Swamp Swindle. In the annals of this bitter rivalry, the record shows a 38-34 FSU win as a one-point road favorite. For those of us that were there, the reality is that if instant replay had been in effect to correct just one or two of the half-dozen botched calls by Jack Childress and his crew, the Gators would’ve won that game handily.

Florida is dealing with a couple of injuries along the defensive line. DTs Lawrence Marsh and Matt Patchan aren’t expected to play after leaving last week’s game against The Citadel.

The ‘over’ is 7-3 overall for UF this year, 2-2 in its road games. However, the ‘over’ has hit five consecutive times in UF games with a total (last week’s win over The Citadel did not have a tally). The 'over' is 5-4 overall for FSU, 2-2 in its four games with a total at Doak Campbell.

ABC will provide television coverage at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Meyer is 3-0 against FSU, while Bowden is 17-16-1 against UF.

--Whether at home or on the road, FSU hasn’t seen an underdog spot this healthy since losing 37-13 at Florida as a 17-point ‘dog in 2001.

--The Gators are 3-0 both SU and ATS as road favorites this season. They are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games regardless of venue.

--In Tebow’s first three seasons at Florida, his TD-INT numbers have looked like this: 5/1 in 2006, 32/6 in ’07 and 22/2 in ’08. By my math, that’s a 59/9 ratio for his career. And, oh yeah, he has 42 career rushing TDs.

--Gene Williams of WarChant.com has predicted a 34-27 Florida victory.

--If Maryland beats Boston College on Saturday, the ‘Noles will play in the ACC title game with a shot at winning their 13th league title.

--In LSU’s 31-30 loss to Arkansas, the Tigers got a monster break when a kick return needed just five seconds to get them to the Razorbacks’ 46-yard line. With three timeouts and 16 seconds remaining, LSU only needed 10-15 yards to feel comfortable about a Colt David field-goal attempt for the victory. Thanks to the timeouts, the Tigers were going to get a minimum of two plays to gain the desired yardage. If I’m Les Miles or offensive coordinator Gary Crowton, my first thought with speedy Jordan Jefferson is to run a QB draw. Instead, a clock-eating pass attempt fell incomplete. Ditto on the next play, leaving David with an impossible 63-yard attempt that fell at least five yards short. In short, the play-calling by Crowton and/or Miles was atrocious and incomprehensible. The Mad Hatter’s Magic Cap worked last year when he would make perplexing decisions and everything would work out fine (think the game-winning TD catch vs. Auburn with one tick left). One year later, the Mad Hatter looks more maddening than magical.

--I’m not sure if Sylvester Croom can survive Mississippi State’s worst loss in the Egg Bowl since 1971. Croom’s teams were responsible for signing the pink slips of Mike Shula at Alabama and Ron Zook at Florida, but it was Houston Nutt’s squad that may have ended Croom’s tenure in Starkville with Saturday’s 45-0 clubbing. Everybody knows that Croom inherited a horrible situation in the wake of Jackie Sherrill’s exit, but the Bulldogs have only been bowling once in five years. If Saturday was Croom’s final game at Mississippi St., it’s fitting that the Bulldogs went scoreless. They have now eaten seven bagels on Croom’s watch. By contrast, Florida hasn’t been shut out since the 1980s. In 28 of 59 games since Croom was hired, Mississippi St. has been held to 14 points or less. The Bulldogs have been held to 17 points or less in 35 of their 59 games. That’s not enough offense to compete in the SEC.

vegasinsider.com.

Saturday's college football line moves
By MICHAEL PERRY

Baylor at Texas Tech

Weather conditions: 51°F Partly Cloudy, Chance Precip 10 percent, Wind: From N 13 mph

Where the line opened: Texas Tech -20

Where it stands now: Texas Tech -22

Where the wise action is: Texas Tech (mostly at -20.5)

Over/under movement: Remains at 71

Injury Report: No Significant Injuries

Texas Tech is getting an obscene 81 percent of the side action. As a result, I'm not surprised that people are all over the over, betting it at an 84 percent rate.

Kansas vs. Missouri (game being played in Kansas City)

Weather conditions: 42°F, Few Showers, Chance Precip: 30 percent, Wind: From ESE 1 mph

Where the line opened: Missouri -13

Where it stands now: Missouri -16

Where the wise action is: Mainly at -14

Over/under movement: 68.5 to 69

Injury Report: KU WR Kerry Meier (leg) questionable. KU RB Jake Sharp is questionable (undisclosed, Sharp left Texas game in first half). Still a mystery what the ailment is and if Sharp will suit up.

Just like the Texas Tech game, people are really behind the big favorite (79 percent) and the over (81 percent).

Notre Dame at USC

Weather conditions: 68°F, Mostly Sunny, Chance Precip: 0 percent, Wind: From WNW 17 mph

Where the line opened: USC -29

Where it stands now: USC -32

Where the wise action is: Lot of sharp action on Trojans -29 thru -30

Over/under movement: Unchanged at 47.5

Injury Report: USC RB Joe McKnight is probable (shoulder)

The Trojans need to score points with BCS and AP voters, so look for them to score early and often against the Irish. Split action on this game so far, as USC is holding a 54 percent advantage in side action. A staggering 86 percent of our players are on over 47.5.

(3) Oklahoma (10-1, 8-2 ATS) at (11) Oklahoma State (9-2, 8-2 ATS)

Oklahoma continues its quest for the Big 12 South title and a BCS championship game berth when it travels to Stillwater, Okla., for a meeting with Oklahoma State in the 103rd edition of the Bedlam Rivalry.

The Sooners made a big statement last week in destroying No. 2 Texas Tech 65-21 as a seven-point home favorite for their fifth consecutive victory and fourth straight spread-cover. Oklahoma took a 42-7 halftime lead into halftime and cruised from there, outgaining the Red Raiders 625-406 overall, including 299-45 on the ground, while the struggling Sooners defense stepped up and forced three turnovers and registered four sacks.

Oklahoma is 6-1 in conference play and enters tonight one-half game behind Texas (7-1) and tied with Texas Tech in the Big 12 North race. If the Sooners beat Oklahoma State and Texas Tech takes down Baylor today, there will be a three-way tie atop the division, and next week’s BCS standings will be used to determine the division winner and representative in next week’s Big 12 championship game.

The Cowboys are 2-2 SU and ATS since starting the season 7-0, with those two loses coming on the road at No. 1 Texas (28-24) and No. 3 Texas Tech (56-20). Oklahoma State rebounded from the Texas Tech debacle in its most recent game Nov. 15, besting Colorado 30-17, but coming up short as a 17-point road chalk. It was the Cowboys’ second straight non-cover after starting out 8-0 ATS.

The Sooners are riding a five-game winning streak (3-2 ATS) in the Bedlam Rivalry, including last year’s 49-17 rout as a 13½-point home favorite. In its most recent trip to Stillwater, Oklahoma prevailed 27-21 as a five-point road chalk in 2006. Despite that result, the home team is on an 8-1-1 ATS roll in this series, with OU going 1-4 ATS in its last five visits to Boone Pickens Stadium.

Oklahoma has scored at least 35 points in every game this season and at least 45 points in all five of its wins during its current winning streak, tallying 62, 66 and 65 the last three weeks alone. The Sooners lead the nation in scoring offense (52.6 points per game), rank third in total offense (556.6 yards per game) and third in passing offense (352.8 ypg). Bob Stoops’ squad also averages 203.8 rushing yards per game on the season, including 273.3 ypg (6.2 per carry) in the last three. Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, a Heisman Trophy candidate, has thrown for 3,710 yards (68.2 percent completion rate) and 42 TDs against just six INTs.

Oklahoma State is putting up 41.6 points and 492.6 total yards per game, including 261 rushing yards per contest (5.7 yards per carry). Dual-threat QB Zac Robinson has completed 67.2 percent of his throws for 2,484 yards with 21 TDs and seven INTs, and he’s added 418 yards and six scores on the ground.

The Cowboys are perfect at home (6-0 SU, 5-0 ATS), scoring at least 55 points in five of the victories and averaging 570.5 yards per game while surrendering 20.8 points and 343.8 yards per contest (126.8 rushing ypg). Meanwhile, Oklahoma is 4-0 SU and ATS in true road games, putting up 57 points and 591.5 yards per game, and giving up 23.5 points and 358.2 yards (92.8 rushing ypg).

In addition to its ongoing 4-0 ATS run (all of which has come in Big 12 play), Oklahoma is on ATS streaks of 5-0 on the road since last year, 5-2 against winning teams, 6-1 after a spread-cover and 7-1 following a 20-plus-point victory. The Cowboys are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight November outings, but otherwise they’re on ATS tears of 6-0 at home since last season, 5-1 versus winning teams, 5-2 in Big 12 play, 8-3 after a non-cover and 7-0 on field turf.

For the Sooners, the over is on streaks of 10-1 overall, 7-0 in conference and 5-0 versus winning teams. For Oklahoma State, the over is on stretches of 28-8 at home, 18-8 in November, 14-3 after a non-cover and 7-3 against winning teams. However, these teams have stayed under the total in the last two Bedlam matchups after going over in the previous four.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Maryland (7-4, 5-5 ATS) at (20) Boston College (8-3, 6-4 ATS)

The Eagles can play their way into the ACC championship game with a victory today as they host Maryland at Alumni Stadium in Boston.

With a victory, Boston College wins the Atlantic Division and earns a trip to the ACC title game, but the Eagles will have to do it with redshirt freshman QB Dominique Davis who is slated to start for injured Chris Crane, who had started every game this season but fractured his collar bone in the second quarter of B.C.’s 24-21 win over Wake Forest a week ago.

Davis stumbled against Wake last week, going 13-of-23 for 103 yards and he had two fumbles returned for TDs by the Demon Deacons. He did lead a nine-play, 70-yard drive in the final five minutes to make up for his two fumbles and keep the Eagles’ ACC title hopes alive.

Maryland comes in off a humiliating 37-3 home loss to Florida State, falling as a two-point ‘dog. The Terps have averaged just 11 points a game in their last three, losing two of those contests, and they produced just 252 yards of offense in the loss to the Seminoles.

Maryland QB Chris Turner threw for a career-high 337 yards and three TDs last year in the Terps 42-35 upset win over Boston College as seven-point home pups. In the last meeting at Boston College in 2006, the Eagles got a 38-16 win, easily covering as 7½-point favorites.

The Terps are on ATS skids of 1-4 on the road and 3-7 in November, but they are 5-0 ATS in their last five after a straight-up loss. Boston College is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight ACC contests and 2-6 ATS in its last eight after a straight-up win.

It’s been all unders lately for Maryland, including 6-1 overall, 5-0 in November, 8-0 on the road, 8-1 in ACC games, and 4-1 after a non-cover. For the Eagles, the over is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 9-3 when they play on turf and 4-1 in ACC contests. In this series, the over has been the play each of the last three years.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON COLLEGE

Virginia (5-6, 4-6 ATS) at Virginia Tech (7-4, 4-6 ATS)

The Cavaliers head to Blacksburg, Va., to take on the rival Hokies hoping to make themselves bowl eligible with a win and keep Virginia Tech out of the ACC championship game.

Virginia has lost three straight, including last week’s 13-3 home setback to Clemson as a 2½-point ‘dog. The Cavs are still looking for their sixth win to make themselves eligible for the postseason after getting win No. 5 back on Oct. 25. Virginia’s offense has been held below 20 points eight times this season, including scoring 10 or less in four outings. The Cavs are last in the ACC in scoring (16.3 points per game) and ninth in total offense (304.4 yards per game).

Virginia Tech got a 14-3 win over Duke a week ago, but failed to cover as a 14½-point home favorite. With a victory today, the Hokies can get to the conference title game despite having one of the worst offenses in college football, ranking 109th in total offense at 293 ypg. The defense, however, is eighth in the country, allowing 276.8 ypg and surrendering just two plays of 30 or more yards in its last three games.

Frank Beamer’s squad has dominated this rivalry, winning eight of the last nine (6-3 ATS), including a 33-31 road win last season, falling short as a 3½-point favorite. The Cavs haven’t won in Blacksburg since 1998, losing by at least 12 points in each of the last four trips to Lane Stadium (1-3 ATS).

Virginia is in ATS ruts of 7-16 on the road, 0-4 in November and 2-5 after a straight-up loss. The Hokies are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, but otherwise they are on positive ATS streaks of 26-10 in ACC games and 13-3 in November contests.

For the Cavs, the under is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 22-8-3 in ACC games, 11-4 in November, 21-8-3 after a non-cover and 7-2 after a straight-up loss. The under has dominated Hokies games as well, going 12-2 at home, 6-2 in conference games, 9-3 in November and 6-1 against teams with a losing record. Lastly, the under is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings in Blacksburg.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Kansas (6-5, 5-5 ATS) at (12) Missouri (9-2, 5-5 ATS)

(at Kansas City, Mo.)

Kansas and Missouri meet for the 117th time when the nation’s second-oldest rivalry kicks off at Arrowhead Stadium with not much riding on the outcome other than bragging rights.

Missouri clinched the Big 12 North Division two weeks ago with a 52-20 win over Iowa State (covering as a 26-point favorite) and Kansas’ 35-7 loss to Texas (as 14-point home ‘dogs). The Tigers will be back in Arrowhead next weekend in the Big 12 title game hoping to spoil the BCS hopes of Oklahoma, Texas or Texas Tech.

The Tigers have an explosive offense that ranks fourth in the nation in scoring at 45.7 ppg and fifth in total yards (512.3 ypg). They have won four straight (2-2 ATS) after dropping two in a row (SU and ATS) to then-No. 17 Oklahoma State and No. 1 Texas. QB Chase Daniel is the headliner for the Tigers, completing 76.9 percent of his throws for 3,592 yards with 30 TDs and 11 INTs in his senior season.

The Jayhawks have lost four of their last five (2-3 ATS) and they were held to their lowest point total in three years in the 35-7 loss to Texas on Nov. 15. Kansas’ offense averages 32 points a game this season and QB Todd Reesing has been the catalyst, throwing for 3,198 yards, 24 TDs and 10 INTs. Reesing threw two picks against the Tigers last season but also had 349 yards and two TD passes.

Missouri leads the rivalry 54-53-9, and the Tigers have won the last two, including a 36-28 victory as a one-point ‘dog in 2007. The straight-up winner is 10-0 ATS in this rivalry dating back to 1998, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Although it has failed to cover in three of its last four games, Kansas brings in several positive ATS streaks, including 20-7 overall, 14-6 in Big 12 games, 4-1 after a week off and 9-4 against teams with a winning record. Missouri is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after a bye week and 0-4 in its last four after a spread-cover, but the Tigers are on positive ATS streaks of 17-8 overall, 11-5 against teams with a winning record and 7-1 in neutral-site games.

For Kansas, the over is on runs of 10-3 in November, 15-6 on grass, 4-1 in conference games and 5-2 after a bye week. The Tigers have stayed under the number in three of their last four overall, six of eight against teams with a winning record and five straight after a spread-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

(18) Georgia Tech (8-3, 7-2-1 ATS) at (13) Georgia (9-2, 3-7 ATS)

The Bulldogs will try to make it eight straight wins over in-state rival Georgia Tech when these two meet for the 103rd time, this year at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Ga.

Georgia was the preseason No. 1 team but lopsided losses to Alabama and Florida have knocked the Bulldogs out of the SEC title chase. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech waits for the outcome of the Virginia-Virginia Tech showdown to see if the Yellow Jackets will play in the ACC title game on Dec. 6 as Coastal Division champs. If Virginia Tech losses, Georgia Tech will compete for the league crown.

Georgia Tech pounded Miami, Fla., 41-23 back on Nov. 20, cashing as a three-point home favorite. The ‘Jackets’ triple-option offense produced 472 rushing yards against the Hurricanes, and they enter this game ranked fourth in the country in rushing offense (270.8 ypg). Jonathan Dwyer leads the team with 1,207 yards rushing (7 yards per carry) and 10 TDs.

Georgia has had trouble stopping teams, giving up 38 or more points in three straight games before beating Auburn 17-13 as a nine-point road favorite on Nov. 15. Despite that solid defensive effort, the Bulldogs have surrendered 23.8 points and 167.4 rushing yards per game in their last five contests.

The Bulldogs lead this rivalry 59-38-5, and they’ve taken 33 of the last 44 meetings. They are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven clashes with Georgia Tech, including last year’s 31-17 win as a four-point road chalk. The last time these two met in Athens, Georgia scored 15 second-half points to edge the Yellow Jackets 15-12 and push as a three-point favorite. The straight-up winner is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 series clashes, and the road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five.

Georgia Tech is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after a bye week, but they are on ATS runs of 6-2-1 overall, 5-1 on the road and 5-2-1 on grass. Georgia is on ATS slides of 1-6 overall, 0-4 at home and 1-4 against teams with a winning record, but the Bulldogs enjoy positive pointspread trends of 7-3-1 after a week off, 7-1-1 against ACC teams and 4-0 in non-conference games.

For the ‘Jackets, the under is on runs of 29-14-1 on grass, 5-1 after a bye week, 4-0 on the road and 6-0 after a straight-up win. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have gone over the total in 10 of 14 home games against teams with a winning road record and five of their last seven November contests. Lastly, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these rivals in Athens.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA and UNDER

Auburn (5-6, 2-8 ATS) at (1) Alabama (11-0, 8-3 ATS)

Alabama will try to end a six-year losing streak to archrival Auburn and hold on to its No. 1 ranking when the schools meet in the 73rd Iron Bowl, this year in Tuscaloosa.

The Crimson Tide, who have already locked up the SEC West title and a berth in next week’s league title game against Florida, have been idle since Nov. 15, when they kept their perfect season alive with a 32-7 home rout of Mississippi State. Alabama easily cashed as a 20½-point home favorite for its fourth consecutive spread-cover. In the win, the Tide finished with a decided edge in total offense (364-167), the third time in the past four games that they outgained an opponent by more than 190 yards.

Auburn enters this showdown having lost five straight games to Division I-A opponents, including a 17-13 home loss to Georgia in its most recent contest on Nov. 18. On the bright side, the Tigers covered as a nine-point ‘dog, halting an 0-8 ATS drought. Tommy Tuberville’s team needs an upset win here to get bowl-eligible and avoid its first losing season since Tuberville arrived at Auburn in 1999.

The Tigers topped Alabama 17-10 a year ago, barely covering as a six-point home favorite. Although the Tigers have won the last six meetings (4-2 ATS), including four straight wins in Tuscaloosa, none of the contests has been decided by more than 10 points. Also, the visitor is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 Iron Bowls.

Both teams field strong defenses, with ‘Bama surrendering 12.5 points and 255.6 yards per game (75.1 rushing ypg), while Auburn yields 16.4 points and 309.2 yards per effort (130.3 rushing ypg). However, the Crimson Tide (31.7 points, 367 yards per game) have big advantage over the Tigers (18.9 points, 314.3 yards per game) on offense. In fact, Auburn has scored 14 points or less in half of its games this year, while Alabama has scored at least 24 points nine times, including the last five games in a row.

As part of its ongoing 1-8 ATS nosedive, Auburn is in pointspread slumps of 1-6 in SEC play, 0-4 this season on the road, 1-4 versus winning teams and 1-5 when playing on grass. However, the Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six as a road underdog versus ranked opponents. Alabama is 5-2 in its last seven SEC games, but 4-10 ATS in its last 14 versus losing squads, 8-20-2 ATS in its last 30 in Tuscaloosa (3-3 this season), 0-4 ATS in its last four following a bye week and 5-17 ATS in its last 22 as a home favorite.

For Auburn, the under is on stretches of 9-3 overall, 4-1 on the road, 4-1 in SEC action, 4-1 in November, 15-7 after a SU defeat and 7-1 after an ATS setback. Alabama’s “under” tears include 5-1 overall (4-1 in the SEC), 4-0 at home, 5-1 on grass and 5-1 in November. Finally, the under is 7-2 in the last nine Iron Bowls overall, with the last four in Tuscaloosa all staying low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ALABAMA and UNDER

(2) Florida (10-1, 9-1 ATS) at (23) Florida State (8-3, 5-4 ATS)

Florida continues its march to the SEC championship game and a possible spot in the BCS title game when it battles in-state rival Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee.

The Gators stepped out of conference last week and obliterated The Citadel 70-19 in a non-lined game. Florida has won seven in a row since a stunning 31-30 home loss to Ole Miss on Sept. 27, going 6-0 ATS in lined games. Also, Florida is 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this year.

Florida State bounced back from a 10-point upset loss at home to Boston College with last Saturday’s dominating 37-3 win at Maryland as a two-point road favorite. The Seminoles outgained an opponent for the seventh time in the last eight games, finishing with a 332-252 edge in total offense versus the Terps. Bobby Bowden’s troops, who haven’t lost consecutive games all season, have alternated SU wins and losses in their last five games, going 3-1-1 ATS during this run.

Florida hammered the ‘Noles 45-12 last year as a 14-point favorite, the team’s fourth straight win in this rivalry, all of which have come by at least seven points. As far as this series goes, the host is 15-5 ATS in the last 20 (3-0 last three), the favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 and the SU winner has covered in nine of the past 10 clashes. Lastly, Florida has come up short against the number in five of its last six trips to Tallahassee.

The Gators have scored at least 42 points in six straight games and they’re averaging 46.5 points and 444.6 total yards (229.8 rushing) per game. Defensively, Urban Meyer’s squad gives up only 12.8 points and 278.7 total yards per game. Meanwhile, Florida State is putting up 34.3 points and 377.2 total yards per contest (186.8 rushing) and surrendering 18.5 points and 272 yards per game.

The Gators have covered the spread in seven consecutive road games and are on additional ATS runs of 18-6 overall, 7-0 in November, 5-0 as a road favorite, 13-3 against winning teams, 10-3 in non-conference play and 16-5 on grass. Florida State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven at home, 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight non-league games, 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games on grass and 2-0 ATS as a home ‘dog the last seven years. However, the Seminoles are 0-6 ATS the last six times they’re coming off a win of 20 points or more.

The last four Florida-Florida State battles have stayed under the total, and the last six meetings in Tallahassee have stayed low. Additionally, the under is on runs of 19-8 for Florida State in November, 5-1 for Florida State against the SEC and 6-0 for Florida against the ACC.

ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA and UNDER

(17) Oregon (8-3, 5-6 ATS) at (19) Oregon State (8-3 SU and ATS)

The only thing standing the way of Oregon State and its first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1964 is hated rival Oregon, which has dropped the last two Civil War meetings in painful fashion.

The Beavers eked out a 38-31 double-overtime win at Oregon as a one-point road underdog last December, one year after beating the Ducks 30-28 at home but failing to cover as a 3½-point home favorite. The Beavers’ win last year ended a 10-0 stretch by the home team in this rivalry, yet the host is still on an 8-3 ATS roll in the Civil War, which is being played for the 112th time today.

Oregon State kept its Pac-10 title hopes alive with last Saturday’s miraculous 19-17 victory at Arizona as a 3½-point road underdog. The Beavers converted a long pass play with 30 seconds left on the clock to put Justin Kahut – who had previously missed a chip-shot extra point that would’ve ensured overtime – in position for a game-winning field goal. OSU outgained Arizona 390-297.

The Ducks, who have had two weeks to prep for this one, also are coming off a win against Arizona, having outscored the Wildcats 55-45 as a six-point home favorite two weeks ago. Oregon rolled up 504 yards in the win, but gave up 527. Mike Bellotti’s team has won two in a row and four of its last five, averaging 41.3 points in the victories. In fact, the Ducks have scored at least 31 points in all eight wins, but they’re averaging only 19.3 ppg in their three defeats.

Oregon State, which opened the season with a 36-28 Pac-10 road loss to Stanford, has since won seven straight league games (6-1 ATS) and is a half-game behind USC in the league standings. However, the Beavers, who haven’t been to the Rose Bowl since the 1964 season, control their own destiny in the conference race based on their stunning 27-21 home win over the then-No. 1 Trojans back on Sept. 5.

Oregon is averaging 39.8 points and 458.5 total yards per game (268.1 rushing ypg), compared with the Beavers’ per-game averages of 32.4 points and 414.3 total yards per outing (172 rushing ypg). However, Oregon State (21.4 ppg, 289.4 total ypg allowed) rates a significant defensive edge over the Ducks (27.1 points, 375.7 total ypg allowed).

The Ducks are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games on artificial turf, but otherwise are in ATS ruts of 0-2 as an underdog, 1-4 in November, 1-5 against winning teams, 1-4 after a spread-cover and 1-4 in their last four trips to Corvallis (0-5 SU). Conversely, Oregon State sports positive ATS runs of 15-4 overall, 39-19-1 at home, 13-4 on turf, 12-2 in Pac-10 play, 11-1 after a SU win, 5-0 in November, 7-2 in home finales (9-1 SU), 15-4 following a bye and 4-0 against teams with a winning record.

The over has hit in each of the six Civil War matchups and is 4-1 the last five times the teams have clashed at Oregon State. Additionally, the Ducks are riding over streaks of 6-2-2 overall, 5-1-1 on turf and 5-2-1 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON STATE and OVER

South Carolina (7-4, 6-4 ATS) at Clemson (6-5, 3-6 ATS)

One year after watching Clemson nail a game-winning field goal as time expired to keep them from going to a bowl game, the Gamecocks get a chance to turn the tables on the Tigers as these teams clash in the annual battle for South Carolina bragging rights.

Clemson drilled a 35-yard field goal at the buzzer last year to get past South Carolina 23-21 and end the Gamecocks’ season on the spot. South Carolina did cover as a three-point home underdog, its second straight ATS win in this rivalry after Clemson had covered each of the previous five meetings. The Tigers are 5-1 SU in the last six battles between these schools.

The last three meetings in this rivalry have gone to the road team, and all three were decided by a total of nine points.

Clemson is finishing an otherwise disappointing season strong, taking three of their last four games both SU and ATS, including last week’s 13-3 win at Virginia as a 2½-point road favorite to keep its bowl hopes alive. The Tigers, who hammered Duke 31-7 two weeks ago, have held nine of its last 10 foes to three touchdowns or fewer. Also, their 3-1 ATS run comes after they failed to cover in their first five lined contests this season.

South Carolina has been licking its wounds the last two weeks after getting destroyed 56-6 at Florida as a 21-point road underdog on Nov. 15. The Gamecocks, who had held their first 10 opponents to 24 points or fewer, trailed 28-3 at halftime and got outgained by an eye-popping 519-173 margin, including 346-53 in rushing.

The Gamecocks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, while Clemson has been a disaster at the window recently, including 3-9 ATS overall, 1-6 ATS at home, 0-5 ATS against the SEC, 1-7 ATS against winning teams and 2-7 ATS on grass.

The over is 4-0-1 in South Carolina’s last five road games and 6-2 in its last eight in November. However, the Gamecocks are still on under steaks of 5-0 in non-conference play and 5-1 against the ACC. Meanwhile, it’s been all “unders” for Clemson, including 10-2 overall, 7-0 at home, 8-1 on grass, 4-0 in the SEC and 13-5 in non-conference play. Finally, three of the last four in this rivalry have stayed low.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Notre Dame (6-5 SU and ATS) at (5) USC (9-1, 5-4-1 ATS)

Embattled Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis may walk the Irish sidelines for the final time today at the L.A. Coliseum as he guides the Irish against fifth-ranked USC, which is still holding out hope for a berth in the BCS championship game.

Notre Dame is coming off an embarrassing 24-23 home loss to two-win Syracuse, failing as a 19½-point favorite. Syracuse scored the winning touchdown with 42 seconds left, but the Irish had one last chance to tie it, only to see a 53-yard field-goal attempt fall short. Notre Dame has outgained each of its last eight opponents, but is only 2-4 (3-3 ATS) in its last six games.

USC, which took last week off, ran its winning streak to seven in a row with a 45-23 triumph at Stanford on Nov. 15, though the Trojans gave up an 18-yard touchdown pass on fourth down as time expired, costing them a spread-cover as a 24-point road favorite. USC busted open a game that was tied 17-17 at halftime, scoring 28 unanswered points before giving up the meaningless touchdown on the final play.

USC piled up a 462-165 total yardage edge in blanking the Irish 38-0 as a 16½-point road chalk last season, its largest margin of victory in 79 meetings with Notre Dame and its sixth consecutive win (5-1 ATS) in this series. The Trojans have scored between 34 and 45 points in all six victories, five of which have come by margins of 31, 31, 20 and 38 points. Additionally, in this storied rivalry, the favorite is on a 6-1 ATS run and Notre Dame is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Los Angeles.

The Trojans continue to field one of the stingiest defenses in the country, allowing just 8.3 points, 222.5 total yards, 132.3 passing yards and 90.2 rushing yards per game, figures that rank first, second, first and fifth in the nation. Offensively, USC puts up 38.4 points and 450.7 total yards per game, including 209.5 rushing ypg.

Notre Dame has put up at least 23 points in seven of its last eight games and is averaging 24.5 ppg and 367.9 total ypg. However, defensively, the Irish are surrendering nearly 20 points and 316.5 total yards per outing (139.7 rushing ypg).

The Irish are on positive ATS streaks of 6-2 on the road, 4-1 against the Pac-10 and 4-1 both off a SU and an ATS loss. USC is on pointspread runs of 30-14 at home, 12-5 against winning teams, 21-6 in non-conference play, 20-6 in November and 7-2 following a bye week.

The under is on streaks of 10-1 for Notre Dame on the road, 4-1 for Notre Dame against the Pac-10 and 4-1-1 for Notre Dame in November. Meanwhile, USC carries “under” runs of 20-8-1 overall, 15-3-1 at the L.A. Coliseum, 20-6-1 on grass and 4-0 against teams with a winning record. However, the over is 3-1 in the last four Irish-Trojans tussles in L.A.

ATS ADVANTAGE: USC and UNDER

NCAAF RESEARCH
By Indiancowboy

Virginia vs. Virginia Tech

The Commonwealth Cup. About 60% riding Va Tech here and why not. They have dominated this team over the past few years. They beat this team by 12 at Virginia and have covered the last four years. Virginia has lost 3 straight covers including a loss to Clemson at home. But, before that, they had covered 4 in a row. Va Tech hasn't blown out anybody. Remember, this offense is outside the top 100. Their biggest win this year is by 14 points over Western Kentucky and I think Virginia hangs tough here as if they win this, it gives them magic 6 to go bowling. Why not a strong effort here in this big rivalry?

Syracuse vs. Cincinnati

Cuse had a big win last week, of course, that could set them up for a let down this week. Cincy beat this team 52-31 last year. Cincy just wrapped up the Big East Title and has covered their last four straight - Cuse could play tough here given that they aren't going bowling and have revenge - but how does one go against a Cincy team that won outright at WVU and South Florida and defeated Louisville and Pitt as well at home and beat this team by 21 points on the road last year?

Miami vs. NC State

NC State is for real. This team just went up to UNC and won 41-10 - my God. This team has covered 8-2 this year and just defeated UNC, Wake Forrest, Duke on the road, lost to top 25 Maryland on the road by just 3 and defeated East Carolina at home. I know Miami is coming off a tough loss to Georgia Tech and are on the bounce-back and the fact that NC State beat Miami by a field goal on the road last year so Miami has revenge, but the Wolfpack are for real and they win this game, they go bowling.

South Carolina vs. Clemson

The line here opened up at around -2.5 and has moved down to -1. USC comes off a 6-56 rout to Florida. One has to think that Spurrier whooped his boys behind after that game. Plus, they have revenge from last year's 2 point 2 point home loss to this team. And remember, USC is good, the beat Ole Miss on the road and Kentucky on the road. Clemson seems to be rolling winning at and defeating Duke, but USC comes off an ugly, ugly loss and has revenge, I lean on Spurrier here.

Kansas vs. Missouri

This is going to be a fun game. The line here opened up at -13 and moved up to -16. Why you say? Well, Mizzou is being looked at for a Big 12 Championship birth and they need to win this game nicely. But, beware 70% of the pub is on Mizzou. Mizzou has covered back to back years and beat this team by 8 on the road last year. KU played Texas to a 7-35 in their last game and lost at Nebraska before that. But, they did cover at South Florida and Oklahoma and face a Mizzou team that romped Iowa State by -26 and covered, having said that, I like KU here as Ressing has thrown for 24 td's and 11 picks and I think he can keep them relatively close, heck, they covered against OU.

UAB vs. Central Florida

A pair of teams that have combined for 7-15 record. Central Florida is doing nothing this year but going home after this season as this was a team that went bowling a few years back against Mississippi State behind Kevin Smith. Central Florida beat this team by 2 td's last year, but UAB had covered the 20 point home dog cover. UAB comes off back to back covers losing to East Carolina by just 4 at home and beating Tulane on the road by 17 as 3.5 road dogs, but UCF just defeated Marshall and Memphis on the road as 5.5 and 7 point dogs. If you ask me, I lean on the over if anything, but tough call either way - think there are better games out there.

Arkansas State vs. North Texas

It's not all too often you find a 20.5 road chalk in a non-conference game that over 66% of the public favors. But, such is the case for Arkansas State on the road at 1-10 North Texas. But, hey, Arkansas State is 5-6 and this win could give them 6 wins but, this team is 1-4 on the road. Ark State beat this team by 4 last year but NT easily covered the 15.5 chalk. The Indians have not covered a road game all year, but NT is just miserable, losing by huge margins to 39 to Middle Tennessee State on the road and 33 to Florida Atlantic on the road - but they do return home for their finale in a revenge game from last year. There is no way I would money on such a big spread with Arkansas State or take a pitiful team like NT, but if I had to pick a side, I would hold m nose and take NT.

New Mexico State vs. Utah State

These two teams combined records add up to 5-19. I think they call this game the ****ter bowl. It's kind of amusing to see a 2-9 team favored by -5.5 points, heck, I would take NM State just on principle. Utah State beat this team 35-17 on the road last year, so a revenge game for New Mexico State, plus, this team played admirably against Fresno State at home losing by just at touchdown on the road and easily covering the road 17 point spread and losing to La Tech by just 4 at home covering the 7 point spread. But, Utah State has had some players come back and remember, they beat Hawaii at home and lost to Fresno State by just 2 as 16 point chalk. This game could go either way, lean on the over.

Nevada vs. Louisiana Tech

The 6-5 road Nevada team is getting a lot more love than the 7-4 home La Tech team - in fact, to a tune of 70% love on the road. Nevada beat this team 49-10 last year at home and they beat this team 42-0 before that and covered the year before that - so they have covered against this team 3 years running. La Tech has really turned their season around including winning 4 in a row and beat Fresno State at home as well. Nevada is 3-1 ATS of late and comes off a loss to Boise