Baltimore Ravens vs. Dallas Cowboys
- The Baltimore Ravens and the Dallas Cowboys will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at Texas Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Cowboys listed as 4-point favorites versus the Ravens, while the game's total is sitting at 39½.
The Ravens lost to Pittsburgh 13-9 as a 3-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (34).
Joe Flacco threw for 115 yards with two interceptions for Baltimore and Le'Ron McClain rushed for 87 yards on 23 carries.
The Cowboys defeated the Giants 20-8 as a 3-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (46.5).
Tony Romo passed for 244 yards with a pair of touchdowns for Dallas, while Tashard Choice rushed for 91 yards and a touchdown on nine carries.
Team records:
Baltimore: 9-5 SU, 10-4 ATS
Dallas: 9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS
Baltimore most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 5-5
Dallas most recently:
When playing in December are 4-6
When playing on turf are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Next up:
Baltimore home to Jacksonville, Sunday, December 28
Dallas at Philadelphia, Sunday, December 28
EagleBank Bowl: Navy vs. Wake Forest
- The Navy Midshipmen (8-4) and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (7-5) will both be looking to have their names inscribed on college football's newest bowl December 20. The teams will do battle at RFK Stadium in the inaugural EagleBank Bowl.
Oddsmakers currently have the Demon Deacons listed as 3-point favorites versus the Midshipmen, while the game's total is sitting at 43½.
Shun White ran for 147 yards and scored two touchdowns to lead Navy over Army 34-0 in Week 15.
The Midshipmen easily covered the 10.5-point spread, while the final score played UNDER the posted total of 43.
Wake Forest snapped a two-game losing skid with a 23-10 victory over Vanderbilt in Week 14. Wake Forest covered the 4-point spread at home, but the 33 points fell UNDER the posted total of 38.
Brandon Pendergrass ran for 43 yards on 10 carries with a touchdown.
Team records:
Navy: 8-4 SU, 6-5 ATS
Wake Forest: 7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS
Navy most recently:
When playing in December are 7-3
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the conference are 7-3
Wake Forest most recently:
When playing in December are 3-0-1
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the conference are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Navy's last 5 games
Navy is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Navy is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Navy is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Wake Forest
Wake Forest is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Navy
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Wake Forest's last 10 games
Wake Forest is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
Wake Forest is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State vs. Colorado State
- Fresno State gets a chance to end its season on a better note and take a shot at a bowl win against a 6-6 team when they face the Colorado State Rams December 20. The schools will clash in the annual New Mexico Bowl at University Stadium in what could be a high-scoring affair.
Oddsmakers currently have the Bulldogs listed as 2½-point favorites versus the Rams, while the game's total is sitting at 60½.
Fresno State was pounded 61-10 by Boise State in Week 14, as 22-point road underdogs. The 71 points sailed OVER the posted total of 58.
Damion Owens ran back an interception for a touchdown in the loss.
Billy Farris threw three touchdown passes to Dion Morton as Colorado State came from behind to beat Wyoming 31-20 in Week 13.
The Rams covered the 1-point spread, while the final score played OVER the posted total of 47.
Team records:
Fresno State: 7-5 SU, 2-10 ATS
Colorado State: 6-6 SU, 6-5 ATS
Fresno State most recently:
When playing in December are 6-4
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing outside the conference are 6-4
Colorado State most recently:
When playing in December are 4-6
When playing on grass are 3-7
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the conference are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
Fresno State is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
Fresno State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Colorado State
Fresno State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado State's last 6 games
Colorado State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Fresno State
St. Petersburg Bowl: Memphis vs. South Florida
- It's a home game of sorts for the South Florida Bulls when they play Memphis December 20 at Tropicana Field. At stake will be the inaugural St. Petersburg Bowl and while the Bulls are favored, they are just 1-3 ATS in the past four games against the Tigers.
Oddsmakers currently have the Bulls listed as 11½-point favorites versus the Tigers, while the game's total is sitting at 53½.
Steven Black rushed for three touchdowns to lead Memphis to an easy 45-6 win over Tulane in Week 14.
The Tigers covered the 14-point spread, while the final score played just UNDER the day's posted total of 53.
South Florida fell 13-7 to West Virginia in Week 15, as 7-point road underdogs. That game's 20 points fell well UNDER the posted total of 47.
Matt Grothe completed 18-of-33 for 189 yards, while rushing for 63 yards and a TD in the loss.
Team records:
Memphis: 6-6 SU, 5-5-1 ATS
South Florida: 7-5 SU, 4-7 ATS
Memphis most recently:
When playing in December are 2-2
When playing on turf are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the conference are 3-7
South Florida most recently:
When playing in December are 1-5
When playing on turf are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the conference are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
Memphis is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of South Florida's last 5 games
South Florida is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Las Vegas Bowl: BYU vs. Arizona
- Two teams that reside near the desert will show up in the desert December 20 for the annual Las Vegas Bowl. BYU and Arizona will both be gunning for a victory at Sam Boyd Stadium in a game that pits the 10-2 Cougars against the 7-5 Wildcats.
Oddsmakers currently have the Wildcats listed as 3-point favorites versus the Cougars, while the game's total is sitting at 61½.
BYU was crushed 48-24 by Utah in Week 13, as 7-point underdogs. The 72 points sailed OVER the posted total of 55.
Harvey Unga carries the ball 15 times for 116 yards with two touchdowns in the loss.
Willie Tuitama threw two touchdown passes in leading Arizona to a 31-10 victory over Arizona State in their regular-season finale. Arizona covered the 10.5-point spread, while the 41 points went UNDER the posted total of 49.
Tuitama completed 24-of-37 pass attempts for 270 yards for Arizona. Nic Grigsby ran for 112 yards off 21 carries with one TD in the win.
Team records:
BYU: 10-2 SU, 3-8 ATS
Arizona: 7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS
BYU most recently:
When playing in December are 4-6
When playing on turf are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing outside the conference are 8-2
Arizona most recently:
When playing in December are 3-1
When playing on turf are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the conference are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
BYU is 20-2 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of BYU's last 5 games
BYU is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Arizona is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
BALTIMORE (9 - 5) at DALLAS (9 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
Baltimore at Dallas
Baltimore: 1-5 ATS off home loss
Dallas: 18-6 Over off ATS win
BALTIMORE vs. DALLAS
Baltimore is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Baltimore is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
NAVY (8 - 4) vs. WAKE FOREST (7 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
NAVY is 104-72 ATS (+24.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 104-72 ATS (+24.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 68-42 ATS (+21.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NAVY is 97-66 ATS (+24.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NAVY is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
NAVY is 52-22 ATS (+27.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NAVY is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in games played on a neutral field since 1992.
NAVY is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
NAVY is 55-23 ATS (+29.7 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
WAKE FOREST is 1-1 against the spread versus NAVY over the last 3 seasons
WAKE FOREST is 1-1 straight up against NAVY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
FRESNO ST (7 - 5) vs. COLORADO ST (6 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
FRESNO ST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games this season.
FRESNO ST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
FRESNO ST is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
FRESNO ST is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
FRESNO ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
COLORADO ST is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO ST is 1-0 straight up against FRESNO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS (6 - 6) vs. S FLORIDA (7 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
BYU (10 - 2) vs. ARIZONA (7 - 5)
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 29-55 ATS (-31.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 2-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-1 straight up against BYU over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Eagle Bank Bowl
Navy vs. Wake Forest
Navy
68-42 ATS as underdog
18-5 ATS in December
Wake Forest
19-8 Under in non-conference games
10-2 Under after allowing 14 points or less
New Mexico Bowl
Fresno State vs. Colorado State
Fresno State
1-7 ATS as a favorite
1-15 ATS off SU loss
Colorado State
26-13 ATS off road conference win
25-12 ATS off BB conference wins
St. Petersburg Bowl
Memphis vs. South Florida
Memphis
4-13 ATS off win by 28+ points
2-15 ATS after scoring 42+ points
South Florida
8-2 ATS vs. Conference USA
5-1 ATS after scoring and allowing 17 or less points
Las Vegas Bowl
BYU vs. Arizona
BYU
4-20 ATS after 2-game road trip
11-2 Under on neutral field
Arizona
12-5 Under off ATS win
7-2 Under off DD conference win
NAVY vs. WAKE FOREST
Navy is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Wake Forest
Navy is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Wake Forest is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Wake Forest is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
FRESNO STATE vs. COLORADO STATE
Fresno State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games
Fresno State is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado State's last 6 games
Colorado State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Fresno State
MEMPHIS vs. SOUTH FLORIDA
Memphis is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
South Florida is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of South Florida's last 5 games
BYU vs. ARIZONA
BYU is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
BYU is 20-2 SU in its last 22 games
Arizona is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
What bettors need to know: New Mexico Bowl
By DAVID MALINSKY
Fresno State vs. Colorado State (+3, 60.5)
Line moves
The most common opener was Fresno State -3, although there were a few early 3.5’s that disappeared quickly. Action to the underdog is making 2.5’s begin to appear or short 3’s with the money line adjusted. The total has been in the 60-60.5 range with little activity.
”I knew I should have made that left turn at Albuquerque”
OK, so Bugs Bunny was talking about only a part of his itinerary instead of a destination in that often used line, but the trip matters in our approach to breaking this one down.
For a Fresno State team that was expecting bigger things this season, and has only missed a bowl spot one time in this millennium, motivation seems to be lacking.
At the start of game week the Bulldogs had sold fewer than 600 of their allotted tickets, and Pat Hill had been lamenting how final examinations at the University had made practices uneven, at best. Could that 61-10 thrashing at Boise State at the end of the regular season have taken away their passion to keep playing?
For Colorado State it’s a different story. The Rams have not played in the postseason the past two years and in the first go-round for Steve Fairchild this is a genuine reward for the program. Ticket sales have been decent from their side, and Fort Collins to Albuquerque is a pleasant drive along the Front Range on I-25, with the Rockies particularly beautiful now that they are snowcapped.
ATS
Fresno State’s 2-10 against the spread (ATS) record made the Bulldogs one of the nation’s prime money-burners. Winning outright as an underdog at Rutgers on national television in the opener had too much impact on the conscience of the betting public and they went on to cover only once over their final 11 games.
Colorado State was 6-5 ATS in Fairchild’s debut, but that broke down to a 5-0 in Fort Collins and 1-5 at all other venues.
Trench warfare
When we see a dismal ATS tally in any particular category, like Colorado State’s road performances this season, we look for the underlying cause and it was easy to spot for the Rams: a soft defensive front. CSU was continually pushed around at the point of attack. They finished 104th in the nation in rushing yards allowed and in three road games against bowl opponents they gave up a frightening 6.7 yards per carry.
That’s a matchup problem here against a Fresno offense that likes to power between the tackles and had three different running backs gain at least 593 yards.
This one gets determined…
By whether or not Fresno State plays with enough passion to make their potential dominance in the ground game come into play. If they come in flat, the Rams might be able to use their enthusiasm and hustle to overcome their defensive issues at the line of scrimmage.
What bettors need to know: Baltimore at Dallas
By MATT SEVERANCE
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (-4, 39.5)
Line movement
The line has definitely moved toward the Ravens with the spread opening at 5.5. This could be due in part to Marion Barber’s uncertain status for Dallas and the fact that Tony Romo has a sore back. The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their past four home games while Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its past five road games. The total has stayed steady all week. The over is 4-0 in Dallas’ past four as at least a 3.5-point favorite and 4-0-1 in the Ravens’ past five road games.
Saturday’s weather
Weather shouldn’t be a big factor with temperatures in the high 40s at kickoff and no precipitation. There could be 10-plus mph winds but how those factor in the partially open roof is a craps shoot.
Key injuries
The big one here is that of Barber, who is expected to be a game-time decision after missing the team’s final full workout Thursday. Barber has a nagging toe injury and sat out against Pittsburgh but returned last week against the Giants. He was ineffective against the G-Men, picking up just two yards on eight carries. Barber is the team leader in rushing with 872 yards and seven touchdowns and the Cowboys’ third-leading receiver with 49 catches for 390 yards and two scores.
Even if Barber plays, rookie Tashard Choice has earned a heavier workload, according to coach Wade Phillips. Choice has rushed for 179 yards (and caught nine passes for 130 yards) in the last two weeks against two of the top five rushing defenses in the NFL. He had seven runs of at least 10 yards and two receptions of 20-plus yards against the Steelers and Giants. Baltimore has the second-ranked total defense (257.5 yards per game) and has allowed only one rusher to gain 100 yards.
Romo has a sore back but there’s no chance he won’t play. Romo returned to full practice Thursday. Cornerback Adam Jones, once thought done for the season, is expected to return Saturday and play on nickel packages and return kicks.
For Baltimore, tailback Ray Rice is doubtful. He was limited in practice all week but coach John Harbaugh is optimistic. Star safety Ed Reed missed a second straight practice Thursday but is expected to play.
Ravens’ D gets love, but don’t overlook Big D’s
Dallas linebacker DeMarcus Ware has been a demon all year and is just 3.5 sacks shy of tying Michael Strahan’s single-season record of 22.5. Ware could certainly get four on Saturday night as he got to the Giants’ Eli Manning three times last week. Dallas sacked Manning eight times and has 20 sacks over its past three games and forced nine turnovers. It leads the league with 53 sacks on the season.
The Cowboys have yielded just four touchdowns in their opponents' last 60 possessions, spanning five games. It's also been five games since Dallas has allowed a 100-yard rusher. The season turned for this unit when Phillips took over the defensive play calling.
Ravens QB Joe Flacco has been sacked just 25 times this season but Pittsburgh got him twice last week. In addition, Baltimore often uses running backs and tight ends to help get maximum protection on passing downs but at the expense of the passing game.
Which Flacco shows?
The Ravens rookie QB looked like a freshman against the Steelers last week (11 of 28, two picks, 22.2 rating), but Pittsburgh can do that to 10-year veterans.
In Baltimore’s previous eight games prior to last week, the Ravens were 7-1 as Flacco had a 95.6 passer rating as a starter. However, he has passed for more than 200 yards just once in the last six games with eight touchdowns and five interceptions.
Baltimore continues to pound the ball, leading the league with 522 attempts despite a 3.8 yards-per-carry average. Pro-Bowl fullback Le’Ron McClain has emerged as the No. 1 back. Last week, McClain had 23 carries against Pittsburgh while former featured back Willis McGahee had just six carries with Rice out.
So long
Barring a few playoff miracles, this will be the final NFL game at Texas Stadium. It’s the Ravens’ first-ever visit. The teams have played twice previously, both were Ravens wins in Baltimore.
What bettors need to know: St. Petersburg Bowl
By ALEX SMART
Memphis vs. South Florida (-13, 52.5)
Line movement
Oddsmakers opened the Bulls as two-touchdown favorites with a total of 51. This was the biggest opening line of all the bowl games and is partly due to the fact USF is playing so close to home. The line has steadily declined to as low as 12 in some sportsbooks, but the total has risen to 52.5.
Head-to-head
This is the fifth meeting between these two teams since 2001. The two teams have split the previous meetings SU (straight up), but the Tigers hold a 3-1 ATS (against the spread) advantage.
Undermined
The under has cashed in all three games between these teams in which there was a betting line.
Bulls bowled over
The Bulls have played in three bowl games in school history. Last season, they were crushed 56-21 by Oregon in the Sun Bowl. In three games, they have been outscored 77-45. They are 1-2 SU and ATS.
All over the Tigers
Memphis will be playing in its fourth bowl game since the 2004 season. The three games have averaged 75.7 points per game and all three have surpassed the total by an average of almost two touchdowns per game.
Conference USA A-OK
South Florida has been a nightmare to teams in the C-USA in its history. Since 2002, the Bulls are 11-9 ATS and 13-7 SU, but since 2005, they’ve been an even more impressive 4-1 ATS and 5-0 SU.
No Conference USA team has scored more than 24 points against the Bulls since the Tigers dropped 31 on them in ’04.
Running the table
The Memphis rushing attack has been fantastic this season. RB Curtis Steele leads the squad with 1,175 rushing yards and seven scores. The Tigers’ offense ranks 19th in the NCAA on the ground with 205.6 rushing yards per game.
Steele has rushed for at least 100 yards in each of Memphis’ wins this season and in those games, he averaged 141.5 yards. The Bulls defense should provide a stiff test for those numbers though, as the unit ranks ninth in the land at 98 rushing yards allowed per game.
Only Pittsburgh’s LeSean McCoy and Syracuse’s Curtis Brinkley have reached the 100-yard plateau against USF’s defense this season.
Go-go Grothe
The success of the USF offense revolves around QB Matt Grothe. Grothe leads the team in both passing yards (2,675) and rushing yards (522). He leads an offense that ranks 38th in the NCAA with 397.4 yards per game, but will have to take on a tough Tigers defense that held opponents to just 342.0 yards per game.
What bettors need to know: Eaglebank Bowl
By MILLER GROUP
Navy vs. Wake Forest (-3, 43)
Line movement
The Demon Deacons currently sit as 3-point favorites after opening at –3.5 at most outlets. The total has risen a full two points since opening at 41 last week.
Key injuries
Navy’s secondary has been one of its weak points and not helping matters is the fact that it could be without a pair of corners in Ketric Buffin and Emmett Merchant. Both are listed as questionable for Saturday’s game.
Wake Forest has just one player listed on the injury report and that’s offensive lineman Barrett McMillin. He missed the Deacons last game with a knee injury and is questionable to play.
Weather
Early in the week, the forecast was calling for partly cloudy conditions and temperatures in the mid-to-high 40s.
Anything look familiar?
Navy upset Wake Forest 24-17 as 17-point underdogs back in late September. It was a prime letdown spot for the Deacons after opening 3-0 while coming off their first ACC game of the season, a 12-3 win over Florida State.
Wake was ranked No. 16 in the nation at the time. The two teams also met last season, with Wake Forest prevailing 44-24 on the road.
Run for your life
Perhaps no bowl game will feature more action on the ground than this one. Navy runs the option better than anyone, picking up 298 rushing yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry this season.
While Wake did take the reins off of quarterback Riley Skinner, they still employ a run-based offense. Unfortunately that offense never really got going this season, as the team averaged only 2.9 yards per carry.
Welcome back, Kaipo
Navy was ecstatic to get do-it-all quarterback Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada back for its 34-0 drubbing of Army two weeks ago. He’s been the team leader and key to this option attack over the past three seasons, but was only able to appear in five games this year due to injury. He played in the win over Wake Forest, rushing for a pair of touchdowns.
Ravens-Cowboys Preview
By Josh Jacobs
Texas Stadium has been home to the Dallas Cowboys (9-5 straight up, 7-7 against the spread) since its opening in 1971. Saturday could mark the final contest played on the tufted nylon 6 playing surface before an official move to the new, $1.3 billion facility in Arlington, Texas becomes reality
But more importantly, we have a pivotal game to talk about. Most books have installed Baltimore (9-5 SU, 10-4 ATS) as four-point visiting underdogs. Game time is scheduled to begin at 8:15 p.m. EST with the NFL Network providing coverage.
Dallas is coming off a 20-8 clubbing over the New York Giants last week (covering the three-point spread, with the total going ‘under’ 46½-points). Quarterback Tony Romo completed 20-of-30 passes (66.7 %) for 244 yards with two touchdowns despite playing the entire contest with a back injury sustained early in the opening quarter.
The Cowboys’ defense played a vital role in fending off their division rival last week. New York’s Eli Manning was sacked eight times in Week 15, helping Dallas tally a total of 20 sacks in the last three games. The Cowboys’ defensive end, DeMarcus Ware is just four sacks away from breaking Michael Strahan’s single-season record.
Dallas’ sharp defensive effort has correlated directly into three straight games that have dipped ‘under’ the total books have set. This time around spots like Sportsbetting.com are playing it safe by adjusting the total in Saturday’s contest to just 39½-points. But the trends aren’t showing any break in the action as an overwhelming 82 percent of the betting public continues to back the ‘under’.
The Cowboys are reaching offensive heights by scoring 22.3 PPG in relation to racking up 352.6 total YPG in their last four. But the team's juggernaut of a defense has been responsible for holding down opponents to scoring 12.3 PPG during the three-game victory stretch.
But as solid as Dallas has been at controlling the lights on the scoreboard, Baltimore has been that much more efficient. The Ravens rank just behind the No. 1 Steelers in YPG allowed (257.5) and are third in the league with 78 rushing yards sacraficed. Giving up a third best 15.2 PPG has placed this team in striking distance for one of the two wild card spots at large in the AFC.
Books haven’t let the Ravens' stiff defense take advantage at crashing down windows (public perception and betting trends based on low socring affairs). The highest total posted this season in Baltimore games has yet to exceed 43½-points. Most books have set a total to 40-plus points only twice this season with the lowest figure recorded at 33½ during Week 5 (an ‘under’ play in a 13-10 loss against Tennessee).
The Ravens are 8-5-1 on the ‘over’ this season and 6-3-1 on the ‘over’ in their last 10. What comes as a surprise is Baltimore’s offense finding the end zone for 23.2 PPG this season (compared to 17.2 PPG in '07) and 25 PPG in the last 10. All eight of the ‘over’ games this year have witnessed the Ravens scoring an average of 31.5 PPG.
Baltimore is coming off a hard fought war against Pittsburgh last week. In an emotionally draining loss the Steelers were able to punch the ball into the end zone with 43 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter.
The Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco found himself floundering yet again, throwing for just 115 yards with two picks (completing just 39.3 % of his passes). It was in Week 14 against Washington that the rookie signal caller found his wide outs for a low 134 yards with one TD and a pick. He’s averaged a QB rating of 43.3 in his last two outings.
We’ve investigated this trend before but teams entering a contest a week after facing Pittsburgh are a tough to swallow 7-22 ATS. After a loss against the Steelers, teams have gone 4-16 ATS.
In a rather odd development at the end of this week, Dallas has listed corner back Adam Jones as active in this contest. It was two weeks ago in a 20-13 loss against the Steelers (of course Dallas went against the grain in that Steelers ATS trend aforementioned with their follow up SU and ATS win against the Giants) that Jones suffered a potentially season ending back injury (herniated disk). But its been considered a miraculous recovery. The much needed ingredient to an already damaged secondary should help bolster those recently impressive defensive numbers.
The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played in December and are 1-5 ATS in their last six after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Countering some negative Dallas’ trends is the Ravens’ 2-10 ATS record in their last 12 games road games when installed as 3½-to-10-point ‘dogs. And a 5-12 ATS report in Baltimore’s last 17 following a SU loss make this squad a little less appetizing on Saturday.
It was in November of 2004 that both teams last met in a head-to-head contest. Led by QB Kyle Boller, the Ravens found themselves winning 30-10 as seven-point home favorites. Baltimore is 3-0 ATS in its last three games versus Dallas.
vegasinsider.com.
Bowl Research Report
By Indiancowboy
Eagle Bank Bowl: Navy vs. Wake Forest
This game is at on ESPN and is at RFK Stadium in Washington D.C. – the home of the Redskins. It’s not often that you see two teams that met during the regular season face off once against during the bowl season but such is the case here. Navy beat this team 24-17 on the road earlier this year. Note, that this game is RFK Stadium in Washington D.C.. You want to know what’s amazing about this game? It’s the fact that Wake was a -17 point favorite against Navy earlier in the year and now Wake sits as just a -3 point favorite after Navy winning outright against them on the road. Navy’s splits are as follows:
Navy Offense: #1 Rushing, #59 Total offense #48 in points scored.
Navy Defense: #52 Overall in defense, #77 in pass defense, #30 Rush defense and #38 in points allowed.
Wake Offense: #103 in Total Yards, 85th in passing, 101st in total Rushing.
Wake Defense: 19th Overall Defense, 28th pass defense, 21st rush defense and 17th in points allowed.
New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State vs. Colorado State
This game is on ESPN and is at University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico. These two teams actually have some history as back in 2006 Colorado State beat this team 35-23 and they were actually 14 point underdogs coming into that game. Fresno State is obviously feeling the love here by about 66% of the public but they come off absolutely getting embarrassed against Boise State by a score of 10-61. The wild thing about that game is that it was 13-10 at halftime and then Boise State just opened up a can in the second half. Fresno State this year has been one of the worst overall ATS covers at 2-10 ATS but once again, they come off the worst loss of the season so they likely have great incentive to bounce-back. This team also has one of the best ability to close out on in the fourth quarter as although they didn’t do it at all against Boise State, they were solid on the road this year and many of those were late fourth quarter comebacks. This team is ranked 43rd in offense, 65th in passing, 35th in rushing and 40th in points scored. This team’s defense is ranked 89th overall, 50th in pass defense, 104th in rush defense and 91st in points allowed. Colorado State is ranked 46th overall on offense, 30th in passing, 79th in rushing and 76th in points scored. Colorado State’s defense on the other hand is much weaker ranking 99th overall, 83rd in passing yards, 102nd in rushing defense and 89th in points overall.
St. Petersburg Bowl: Memphis vs. South Florida
This game is on ESPN2 and is at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. Well, this is basically a home game for South Florida as they love playing bowl games in Florida and the Bowl organizers are well aware they can more than pack out the stadium when the Bulls are in the house. Memphis comes off a huge win over Tulane by winning 45-6, plays a South Florida team that actually comes off a loss against WVU by a score of 7-13 on the road. So, obviously, with South Florid being at home, coming from the Big East and coming off a loss is relatively appealing. Remember, Memphis has an offense that is ranked 22nd, 47th in passing, 19th in rushing and 44th in points scored. Memphis has a defense that is ranked 53rd in the nation, 47th in passing, 70th in rushing and 66th in overall defense. South Florida has an offense that is ranked 38th overall, 39th in passing, 51st in rushing, and 54th in points scored. South Florida’s defense is what has been most impressive with their rush defense ranked 9th in the nation, their pass defense ranked in the top 45, and being top 30 in points allowed.
Last Vegas Bowl: BYU vs. Arizona
This game is on ESPN at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. Well, what better than Nevada for this venue. Everyone and their mother will be wagering on this game. The first that jumps out at you is the records between these two teams. After all, you have a 10 win BYU team that was in the race for a BCS birth except for the fact when they were torn up at TCU on the road. But, after years of being the ATS darling, BYU really took it on the chin this year ATS wise as they went just 3-8 ATS. Max Hall did have a great season for the Cougars as he threw for 34 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. This team comes off a tough 24 point loss to Utah and now has to turn around and play a PAC-10 team in Arizona that comes off an easy win over Arizona State. The two teams that these two share that they have played is New Mexico and UCLA. BYU beat UCLA at home 59-0 and New Mexico 21-3 at home. Arizona beat UCLA 31-10 on the road and lost to New Mexico 28-36 as 10 point favorites in the early portion of the season. But, this team did lose to Oregon St by just 2 points 17-19 and USC 10-17. I lean a bit on the over here, but I think this is one of the toughest lines to hit this bowl season.
Saturday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
The college football bowl season kicks off Saturday with four games running from 11:00 a.m. Eastern until around midnight. When you are looking to make a wager on one of the lower-tier bowl games like these, I think bettors should focus more attention than normal on motivational factors, or lack thereof.
Is Fresno St. fired up to face a school from the Mountain West Conference? On the flip side, isn’t it a given that Colorado St. is thrilled to be in the post-season after going 3-9 last year?
Back in August, many felt like South Florida had an excellent chance to win the Big East and some even thought the Bulls could be a darkhorse national-title contender. With that in mind, is USF focused to face a middle-of-the-road Conference USA squad? Did the Bulls mentally check out weeks ago?
Let’s take a look at two of Saturday’s matchups.
**Fresno St. vs. Colorado St.**
--Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the New Mexico Bowl as a pick ‘em with a total of 55. As of Friday afternoon, most books had Fresno State (7-5 straight up, 2-10 against the spread) listed as a 2 ½-point favorite with the total in the 60-61 range. Bettors can back the Rams on the money line for a plus-120 return (risk $100 to win $120).
--Colorado State (6-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) should have no problem getting motivated. In Steve Fairchild’s first year, the Rams clinched their first bowl berth since 2005 by winning back-to-back games both SU and ATS to close the regular season.
--CSU beat New Mexico 20-6 as a three-point home underdog back on Nov. 15. Then in the regular-season finale, the Rams dropped Wyoming by a 31-20 count as 1 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ Billy Farris threw for 235 yards and three touchdowns, while Gartrell Johnson ran for 135 yards and one TD on 23 carries.
--CSU is no stranger to underdog spots, posting a 4-4 spread record in eight such situations in 2008. On the flip side, Fresno St. has an atrocious 1-7 spread record in eight games as a favorite this year.
--During Hill’s tenure, Fresno has won four straight bowl games over BCS schools (Ga. Tech twice, Virginia and UCLA), including last season’s 40-28 spanking of Ga. Tech as a six-point underdog. But the Bulldogs have lost both recent bowl games against non-BCS foes (Tulsa and Air Force). In other words, the Bulldogs get fired up to prove something against the big boys, but they tend to be flat against lesser-known opponents.
--According to the Fresno Bee, the Bulldogs flew to Albuquerque on Wednesday after just five days of practice. And even during those practices, some players were excused to study for or take exams. It’s easy to sense Fresno’s lack of focus simply by hearing this quote from Hill, who told the Bee, “We haven’t had the concentration level we usually have during the week of practice. But we’ll see. We want to make sure school is taken care of first. And hopefully, by the time we get to New Mexico, we’ll have two days to tighten it up for this game.”
--Fresno St. has a solid quarterback in senior Tom Brandstater, who has 2,478 passing yards for the season with a 17/11 touchdown-interception ratio.
--"Fresno State is getting 68% of the action with us so far," said Eddie Franks, the Head Oddsmaker at Brobury Sports. "But that seems to be based more on reputation than on performance. The Bulldogs' 2-10 spread record, including 0-8 on Saturdays, should not be ignored."
--The ‘over’ has hit in five of the Rams’ last six games. The ‘over’ is 6-5-1 overall for Fresno St., but the ‘under’ has cashed in three of its last four outings.
--Kick-off at University Stadium in Albuquerque is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**Memphis vs. South Florida**
--LVSC opened South Florida (7-5 SU, 4-7 ATS) as an 11 ½-point favorite with a total of 50 ½. As of Friday, the Bulls were 12-point favorites with the total adjusted to 54. The Tigers are an attractive plus-350 on the money line (risk $100 to win $350).
--Memphis (6-6 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) won three of its last four games both SU and ATS to clinch a bowl berth. The Tigers concluded the regular season by spanking Tulane 45-6 as 14 ½-point home favorites. Curtis Steele ran for 135 yards and one touchdown, while Steven Black added three rushing TDs. Arkelon Hall completed 10 of his 12 passes for 109 yards without an interception.
--On Thursday’s edition of the Power Hours, VI handicapper James Manos said, “Tommy West can’t get the Clemson out of him. It seems like every year he and Tommy Bowden have come into the season on the hot seat. Bowden didn’t survive this go-round, but West did and has the Tigers in a bowl game. I think Memphis is much more motivated in this game and I love the double-digit underdog. In fact, I think the Tigers have a better-than-decent shot at winning outright.”
--USF lost four of its last five games to fall out of contention in the Big East. The Bulls finished the regular season by dropping a 13-7 decision at West Va. However, the Bulls took the cash as seven-point underdogs.
--South Florida junior quarterback Matt Grothe makes a bunch of plays, but he is also turnover-prone, as evidenced by his 15/14 touchdown-interception ratio. Grothe also threw 14 interceptions in 2007. With that said, he can also make plays scrambling. In fact, Grothe has a team-high 504 rushing yards and four touchdowns.
--Steele has enjoyed a banner season for the Tigers, rushing for 1,175 yards and seven touchdowns. He averages 5.7 yards per carry.
--The ‘under’ is 6-5 overall for USF, 4-1 in its last five games.
--The ‘over’ is 6-5 overall for Memphis.
--ESPN2 will have the telecast at 4:30 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--South Carolina suffered a costly loss when safety Emanuel Cook was ruled academically ineligible this past week. Cook brought a bunch of moxy and plenty of physical play to the Gamecocks’ defense. He was undoubtedly one of the SEC’s most physical secondary players. GamecockCentral.com’s Scott Hood had the details in his latest blog (might need a Rivals.com subscription to view).
--On the loss of Oklahoma RB DeMarco Murray (hamstring surgery) for the BCS Championship Game, Manos said on the Power Hours, “Murray might be the most underrated running back in the country but with that said, it’s not a loss the Sooners can’t recover from. It’s like when Florida didn’t have Percy Harvin against Alabama. You knew it hurt the Gators, but you also knew that it wasn’t something that couldn’t be overcome. Same deal here for the Sooners. They have a pass-first mentality anyway and when they want to run, there’s a 1,000-yard back-up in Chris Brown to hand the ball to.”
--I think I had it right when I said Auburn should hire a black coach five days before it announced the hiring of Gene Chizik. The former Iowa St. coach has a 5-19 career record as a head coach and brings a 10-game losing streak to the Plains. Auburn's former coach Tommy Tuberville had an 85-40 record in 10 seasons and had beaten arch-rival Alabama in six of the last seven Iron Bowls. In short, the incompetence of the Auburn Board of Trustees is absolutely mind-boggling.
--According to multiple reports, West Virginia RB Noel Devine will play in the Meineke Car Care Bowl against North Carolina. There was speculation that Devine might be ruled academically ineligible.
--Miami quarterback Robert Marve has been ruled ineligible for the Emerald Bowl. Therefore, Jacory Harris will get the starting nod for the ‘Canes. Harris has a 10/6 TD-INT ratio, while Marve had a mediocre 9/13 TD-INT ratio.
vegasinsider.com.
What bettors need to know: Las Vegas Bowl
By TED SEVRANSKY
Arizona vs. BYU (+3, 61.5)
Line moves
We’ve seen two-way action on this game since the lines were posted. Arizona opened as a 3-point favorite where the line remained on Friday. The total opened at 61 and has been bet up slightly to 61.5, although we can expect that total to drop if windy conditions materialize prior to kickoff.
Head to head
These two teams are former WAC rivals from the 60s and 70s with 21 previous meetings logged in the record books. This is the first time the Cougars and Wildcats will meet in a bowl game, though.
These two teams faced each other in their season openers in 2006 and 2007. Arizona won at home in ’06, but failed to cover the spread as a 6.5-point favorite in a 16-13 victory. Last year, BYU won and covered at home, 20-7. Both recent meetings stayed well under the posted total.
Been here before
BYU will be making its fourth consecutive trip to play in the Las Vegas Bowl. The Cougs lost here to Cal in 2005, but covered the spread as an 8-point underdog in a 35-28 defeat.
In ’06, the Cougars blew out a distracted Oregon team 38-8, winning and covering with ease. Last year, BYU beat UCLA 17-16, but did not cover the spread as a 6-point fave.
BYU has also had great regular season success at Sam Boyd Stadium, beating UNLV on this field in each of the last five meetings. More than most college kids, we can expect Bronco Mendenhall’s team to avoid the distractions that can plague teams when they visit Sin City.
Bowl virgins
Arizona hasn’t played in a bowl game since 1998, so we can count on an excitement level from the Wildcats that the Cougars may not be able to match. Sometimes it’s tough to get motivated when you’ve been playing in the same bowl game for four years.
That said, teams that haven’t been bowling in a decade don’t always turn their enthusiasm into winning results – the Las Vegas nightlife could provide a little extra temptation for the Arizona squad.
Bad spread records
BYU went 10-2 SU (straight up) this year, but only 3-8 ATS (against the spread). Following their early season back-to-back shutout wins at home against Wyoming and UCLA, the Cougars managed only one pointspread cover in their final eight games, consistently overvalued by the betting marketplace. BYU only covered one pointspread all year away from home.
Arizona started off the season with a strong 6-2 ATS mark, but the Cougars covered only once in their final four games of the season. The Wildcats, too, fared poorly away from home, losing straight up at New Mexico, Stanford and Oregon as part of their 1-4 ATS mark on the highway.
Injuries
Both teams look healthy. BYU’s stellar tight end Dennis Pitta (78 catches, 1025 receiving yards) has been upgraded to probable with a strained MCL. BYU starting cornerback Scott Johnson missed the Cougars regular season finale with a groin injury, but he should be back in the lineup here. Arizona has no significant injuries to report.
Offensive similarity
Arizona’s offensive coordinator for the last two years has been Sonny Dykes, who was a co-offensive coordinator under Mike Leach at Texas Tech prior to this gig. BYU’s offensive coordinator is Robert Anae, who was the offensive line coach under Mike Leach at Texas Tech prior to his current job.
Both teams run the spread formation utilizing short, quick passes to get the ball to their receivers in space. Both defenses will have extensive experience working against this type of offense, giving us a perfectly valid explanation why the two recent meetings have both stayed under the total by a wide margin.
Weather
In case you missed it, Las Vegas was blanketed by a major snowstorm earlier this week. Seriously.
While we’re not expected to see any more significant accumulation, the forecast for Saturday calls for game time temperatures in the upper 30s with the potential for windy conditions too. Not exactly a beautiful Saturday night in the desert
Baltimore (9-5, 10-4 ATS) at Dallas (9-5, 7-7 ATS)
Two teams aiming to stay entrenched in the playoff race square off in a non-conference clash as the Cowboys host the Ravens in what will likely be the last game at Texas Stadium.
Dallas rode its defense to a 20-8 victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Giants as a three-point home chalk Sunday night, winning and cashing for the fourth time in five weeks. QB Tony Romo (20 of 30, 244 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was sharp, the offense didn’t commit a turnover and the defense sacked New York QB Eli Manning eight times, forcing two turnovers and allowing just 218 total yards. The Cowboys control their own destiny for a wild-card berth and can earn their third straight postseason berth by sweeping their final two games.
Baltimore suffered a controversial 13-9 loss to Pittsburgh as a three-point home favorite Sunday, giving up a 92-yard touchdown drive in the final minutes, with the Steelers scoring the game’s only touchdown with 43 seconds left on a play that was reversed by replay. The Ravens had their three-game SU and ATS winning streak halted in the defeat, which gave Pittsburgh the NFC North title and dropped Baltimore into the wild-card race.
Ravens rookie QB Joe Flacco (11 of 28, 115 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) had a dismal day versus Pittsburgh’s top-ranked defense, accounting for both of his team’s turnovers. Baltimore netted just 202 total yards, while allowing 311 – nearly a third of which came on the Steelers’ game-winning TD drive.
The SU winner is now on a 23-2 ATS roll in the Ravens’ last 25 games, including 13-1 ATS this season. The winner is also 9-0 ATS in Dallas’ last nine games and 12-2 ATS in its 14 contests this year.
These teams have met just twice this decade, with Baltimore going 2-0 SU and ATS, winning by a combined score of 57-10. Most recently, the Ravens rolled 30-10 laying 7½ points at home in 2004.
This contest features two of the NFL’s top stop units. Baltimore is second in the league in total defense (257.5 ypg) and third in scoring defense (15.2 ppg), and Dallas is seventh in total defense (287.0 ypg) and 12th in scoring defense (20.6 ppg). Over their last four games, the Ravens have given up a total of three touchdowns and 33 points, while the Cowboys have surrendered just 37 points and two touchdowns in their last three contests, with one of the TDs the result of an interception returned for a score.
Despite Sunday’s victory over the Giants, the Cowboys remain on a 1-7 ATS slide in December, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 4-0 at home and 5-0 as a favorite, and they are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a non-conference chalk. The Ravens are on ATS skids of 0-4 on Saturdays and 5-12 after a SU loss, but they carry positive pointspread trends of 7-2 overall, 4-1 on the road and 4-1 after an ATS setback.
The under for Dallas is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-0 in December and 4-1 against winning teams. On the flip side, the over for Baltimore is on stretches of 6-2-1 overall, 4-0-1 on the highway and 8-2-1 as a road underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
EAGLEBANK BOWL
Navy (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs. Wake Forest (7-5, 5-7 ATS) (at Washington, D.C.)
Wake Forest gets a chance to avenge its first loss of the season when it takes on the Midshipmen in the inaugural EagleBank Bowl at RFK Stadium.
These squads met back on Sept. 27 in Winston-Salem, N.C., with Navy pulling off a 24-17 upset win as a 17-point road ‘dog, the Middies first victory over a ranked team in 33 years. Wake Forest had six turnovers in the game, with QB Riley Skinner throwing four interceptions, including a fourth-quarter pick that sealed the Deacons’ fate. Navy outrushed Wake Forest, 292-43.
The victory over Wake Forest ignited the Middies, who went on to win five of their final seven (4-3 ATS). That included back-to-back shutouts to close the season – a 16-0 win at Northern Illinois as a three-point underdog and a 34-0 whitewash of archrival Army as a 10½-point chalk. Navy led the nation in rushing at 298.3 yards per contest and Shun White was third in the country averaging 8.7 yards per carry en route to 1,021 rushing yards and eight TDs in 12 games. Bruising FB Eric Kettani ran for 932 yards and four TDs, including a career-high 175 yards against Wake Forest back in September.
Beginning with loss to Navy, the Demon Deacons lost five of their last nine games (3-6 ATS) and finished tied for third in the ACC’s Atlantic Division. Wake Forest, which closed the regular season with a 23-10 non-conference win over Vanderbilt as a four-point home favorite on Nov. 29, ranked 103rd in total offense, averaging just 315.8 yards per game, and they have scored just 20 TDs in 41 trips inside the red zone. Meanwhile, after throwing four INTs against Navy, Skinner threw six TDs and just three picks in his final eight games.
This is Navy’s sixth-consecutive bowl appearance, a school record, going 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five, including four consecutive spread-covers. The Demon Deacons are in their fourth straight bowl game (2-1 SU and ATS in the previous three).
This will be the third meeting between these squads in the last 14 months, including Wake Forest’s 44-24 victory as a three-point road favorite back on Oct. 20, 2007. The Demon Deacons have won four of the last five meetings going back to 1998, going 3-2 ATS.
The Middies are on ATS runs of 22-8 away from home, 4-0 in bowl games, 4-0 in December, 4-1 in neutral-site games, 5-2 in non-conference contests and 7-3 against ACC foes. Wake Forest is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games against winning teams and 4-0 ATS in its last four December contests, but the Deacons are 0-4 ATS in their last four after a spread-cover.
Navy has stayed under the total in four of its last five overall, but otherwise it’s all “over” streaks for the Middies, including 8-1-1 against ACC teams, 4-0 in bowl games, 9-4 in neutral-site games and 7-2 when coming off a spread-cover. The Demon Deacons are on a plethora of “under” runs, including 7-2 overall, 17-6-1 in non-conference games, 4-0 in December, 4-0 in bowl games and 4-1 after a spread-cover. Finally, these teams totaled just 41 points in their September meeting, staying well under the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NEW MEXICO BOWL
Fresno State (7-5, 2-10 ATS) vs. Colorado State (6-6, 6-5 ATS) (at Albuquerque, N.M)
Fresno State guns for its fifth bowl victory in the last seven seasons when it battles the Rams at University Stadium in Albuquerque.
The Bulldogs qualified for this contest despite losing three of their final five games (1-4 ATS), including getting destroyed 61-10 at Boise State in the season finale Nov. 28, falling way short as a 21½-point road ‘dog as they got outgained by 200 yards. Senior QB Tom Brandstater threw for 2,478 yards and 17 TDs this season, but also tossed 11 INTs. The Bulldogs averaged 176.8 rushing ypg, but RB Anthony Harden had just 11 yards on nine carries in Boise. Also, Fresno’s defense was a weak link all season, giving up 30.3 points and 393.6 total yards per game (197.4 rushing ypg).
First-year Colorado State coach Steve Fairchild guided the Rams to their first bowl berth since 2005. They won their final two games to become bowl eligible, beating New Mexico 20-6 as three-point home favorites on Nov. 15, then going to Wyoming and routing the archrival Cowboys 31-20 as a 1½-point road chalk the following week. Like Fresno, CSU has struggled in a big way on defense, allowing 29.8 points and 410.2 total yards per game (189.4 rushing ypg).
These teams squared off in 2006 with Colorado State prevailing 35-23 as a 14-point road-dog in Fresno. They have split four meetings since 2001, but the Rams are 3-1 ATS during this stretch.
While Colorado State hasn’t been to a bowl since beating Navy 51-30 in the 2005 Poinsettia Bowl, Fresno State is playing its ninth bowl game in the last 10 years, and the ‘Dogs are 10-7 SU and 6-6 ATS all-time in the postseason, including 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS under coach Pat Hill. The underdog is a perfect 8-0 ATS in Fresno’s last eight bowl contests, with the Bulldogs being the favorite in three of those contests.
Fresno State is 11-25 ATS over the last three full seasons, including 1-9 ATS in the last 10 this year. Additionally, the Bulldogs mired in ATS slumps of 7-19 as a favorite, 4-9 in non-conference games, 1-5 against Mountain West Conference squads and 16-35-1 following a non-cover. The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four December contests and 12-18 ATS as an underdog since 2004, including 0-4 SU and ATS as a road pup this season. On the bright side, Colorado State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 on grass and 5-1 ATS in its last six after a straight-up win.
For Fresno, the over is on streaks of 5-2 in bowl games, 6-2 in non-conference contests and 5-2-1 with the Bulldogs as a favorite. The over is 5-1 in Colorado State’s last six overall, but otherwise the Rams are on under runs of 8-3 as an underdog, 11-4 after a straight-up win and 10-4-1 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: COLORADO STATE
ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
Memphis (6-6, 5-6 ATS) vs. South Florida (7-5, 4-7 ATS) (at St. Petersburg, Fla.)
South Florida makes the short trek from its Tampa Bay campus to Tropicana Field and will have a virtual home game when it battles Memphis in the inaugural St. Petersburg Bowl.
South Florida opened the season with five straight wins and climbed to No. 10 in the rankings before losing five of its last seven (3-4 ATS). The Bulls struggled offensively, failing to score more than 20 points in any of their last five, with senior QB Matt Grothe being the biggest culprit as the threw just three TD passes and 11 INTs during this stretch. South Florida averaged 14.8 points in its five losses and 34.9 points in its seven wins.
Memphis won three of its last four SU and ATS to get into the postseason, including a 45-6 rout over Tulane as a 14½-point favorite. Junior RB Curtis Steele rushed for 1,175 yards and seven TDs to become the school’s first 1,000-yard rusher in three years. None of the Tigers’ six victories came against an opponent that finished with a winning record, and Memphis averaged 34.2 points in its six wins and just 22.3 points in its six defeats.
South Florida is in its fourth straight bowl game, going 1-2 SU and ATS in the previous three, including last season’s embarrassing 56-21 loss to Oregon in the Sun Bowl as a 5½-point favorite. Memphis has won three of its five bowl games all-time, including a 44-27 loss to Florida Atlantic in last year’s New Orleans Bowl as a 3½-point ‘dog.
These two were regular competitors earlier this decade, splitting four games both SU and ATS between 2001 and 2004.
Memphis is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 as a double-digit ‘dog, but 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games and 8-19-1 ATS in its last 28 after a SU win. South Florida is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games, but the Bulls have cashed in four of their last five against Conference USA foes.
For Memphis, the over is on streaks 7-3-1 in non-conference games and 5-2 following a straight-up win. Meanwhile, the Bulls have gone over the posted number in six of their last seven non-conference games, but the under is 4-1 in their last five overall and 4-1 in their last five December games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
LAS VEGAS BOWL
(17) BYU (10-2, 3-8 ATS) vs. Arizona (7-5 SU and ATS) (at Las Vegas)
The Cougars return to the Las Vegas Bowl for the fourth consecutive year, this time facing the Wildcats, who are making their first postseason appearance in a decade.
BYU was ranked as high as No. 8 in the country before a 32-17 loss to unranked TCU on Oct. 16, failing as a 1½-point road ‘dog. Despite that setback, the Cougars were still on track to win at least a share of the Mountain West Conference crown, but that goal got squashed in a season-ending 48-24 loss to then-No. 8 Utah on Nov. 22, failing to cash as 6½-point road underdogs to end the season in a 1-7 ATS funk. QB Max Hall threw a career-high five INTs and no TDs in the loss to the rival Utes.
Arizona outscored archrival Arizona State 24-0 in the second half on Dec. 6, rolling to a 31-10 victory as an 11-point home favorite to wrap up its first winning season since 1998, which was the last time the Wildcats earned a bowl berth. Arizona outgained the Sun Devils by 227 yards in halting a two-game SU and a three-game ATS slide.
The Cougars have won their last two bowl games inside Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas. In 2006, they clobbered Oregon 38-8 as a three-point favorite, then last year BYU blocked a field goal to secure a 17-16 win over UCLA, falling short as six-point favorites. Meanwhile, Arizona beat Nebraska 23-20 in the 1998 Holiday Bowl in its most recent postseason contest.
These squads have met each of the last two regular seasons, with the host winning both and BYU going 2-0 ATS. Last year, the Cougars rolled 20-7 as a 3½-point favorite, with both QBs playing well, as Hall threw for 288 yards and two TDs and Tuitama passed for 216 yards and one score.
Both teams feature high-powered offenses. Arizona ranks 16th in the nation in scoring offense (37.1 ppg) and averages 401.3 total ypg, as QB Willie Tuitama finished second in the Pac-10 in passing yards (2,763), TDs (21) and QB rating (143.0). The Cougars put up 35.3 ppg and 446 total ypg, and Hall (69.6 percent completion rate, 3,627 yards, 34 TDs, 13 INTs) led a passing attack that rates seventh in the nation (308.9 ypg).
The Cougars have gotten the cash in six of their last eight after a straight-up loss, and they’re 5-1 SU in their last six games against Pac-10 foes (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS this year). Otherwise, BYU is on negative ATS streaks of 1-7 overall, 1-5 on the road this year, 1-5 in non-conference games, 0-4 in non-conference road games and 1-5 after a non-cover. Arizona has gone 0-4 ATS in its last four against Mountain West squads, 11-29 ATS in its last 40 as a favorite and 1-4 ATS on the highway this season, but the Wildcats are on positive pointspread streaks of 11-5 overall and 6-2 against teams with a winning record.
The under is 4-1 in BYU’s last five bowl games and 5-2 in its last seven against Pac-10 squads. The Wildcats are on “under” runs that include 4-0 in December games, 11-5 after a spread-cover and 20-8 on grass. Also, both games between these schools the last two seasons have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Gametimepicks.com
Where the action is: Saturday bowl games
By MICHAEL PERRY
Eagle Bank Bowl
Navy (8-4) vs. Wake Forest (7-5)
Game being played in Washington, DC
Weather conditions: 38°F Cloudy; Feels Like: 32°F; Chance Precip: 0%;
Wind: From N 9 mph
Where the line opened: Wake -3
Where it stands now: Wake -3
Where the wise action is: OVER 41.5
Over/under movement: 41.5 to 43.5
Injury Report: Navy secondary hurtin as DB's Emmett Merchant (concussion) & Ketric Buffin (foot) are questionable. Wake Forest RB's Brandon Pendergrass & Josh Adams are probable with ankle issues. Pendergrass leads team in rushing (528 yards) and Adams their 2nd leading rusher (389 yds).
70 percent of our players are on Wake Forest. However, 69 percent of our moneyline action is on Navy (+125). 74 percent of the total action is on OVER.
New Mexico Bowl
Game: Fresno State (7-5) vs Colorado State (6-6)
Game being played in Albuquerque
Weather conditions: 43°F Sunny; Feels Like: 35°F; Wind: From WNW 16 mph
Where the line opened: Fresno -3
Where it stands now: Fresno -3
Where the wise action is: UNDER 60
Over/under movement: 60 to 59
Injury Report: Fresno RB Ryan Mathews is questionable (knee). Mathews is team's 3rd leading rusher (593 yds) and leads the team in rushing TDs (6). Colorado State has injury problems in secondary as both Mike Pagnotta (shoulder) & Klint Kubiak (knee) are questionable.
Slight lean on Fresno, with the Bulldogs getting 56 percent of the side action. A ridiculous 85 percent of the moneyline action is on Colorado State (+120). 62 percent of our total bets are on the OVER.
St. Petersburg Bowl
Game: Memphis (6-6) vs South Florida (7-5)
Game played at St. Petersburg, FL
Weather conditions: 74°F Sunny; Chance Precip: 0%; Wind: From WSW 6 mph
Where the line opened: S Florida -13
Where it stands now: S Florida -11.5
Where the wise action is: Quite a bit on Memphis +13. Also some sharp action on OVER 51 and 52
Over/under movement: 51 to 54
Injury Report: No significant injuries.
Bettors are split on this game, as Memphis is getting a slim 52 percent advantage in side bets. South Florida is getting 57 percent of the moneyline action (-430). 86 percent of the total action is on the OVER.